Australian Federal Election thread - 2010 edition.

[Stofsk]

I'm glad Wilson Tuckey got pwned. How does the Senate work though? For example, is Stephen Conroy safe? Not that it matters because the Greens comfortably hold the balance of power in the Senate, and we still don't know if Labor can pull up and form a minority government.

[weemadando]

Conroy was always safe, he's a Labor senator and a minister so he would have been first on their cards.

Fielding got left by the wayside thankfully. But he'll now just be an insufferable prick until July.

[Archaic`]

I don't know if Conroy was first on their cards or not, but...Conroy was not the first Labor senator elected for Victoria this election. If he was first on their cards, that spells out a pretty huge below the line backlash against him personally.

[weemadando]

Carr was first on their Group Voting Ticket, Conroy 2nd.

[Lusankya]

I just checked the AEC: Conroy was the second on their group voting ticket. Kim Carr was first. I do know quite a few people in Victoria who are voting below the line just to put him and Fielding last, though.

[thejester]

'The Revenge of Rural Australia'.

Seriously, listening to Bob Katter and the other Independent's last night on the 7.30 report....the bitter fruit of ~30 years of deregulation and free market policy could be coming home to roost here. Given both major parties were basically in consensus over these policies it'll be interesting to see who can convince the independents that they've got a better deal. NBN might end up being a major part of that, but who knows?

I'd also be interested to see how much of a swing the Greens got in the bush. Seems an increasing number of farmers are realising that the greens are far less of an enemy than the major parties, and vice versa. Again, could have an influence on the way policy is formed when the Greens gain the balance of power.

[xt828]

It was an interesting interview, for sure - I kind of wish they'd done a longer one and posted it online, as those three clearly have quite a few goals in mind and they aren't shy about sharing.

[bobalot]

'The Revenge of Rural Australia'.

Seriously, listening to Bob Katter and the other Independent's last night on the 7.30 report....the bitter fruit of ~30 years of deregulation and free market policy could be coming home to roost here. Given both major parties were basically in consensus over these policies it'll be interesting to see who can convince the independents that they've got a better deal. NBN might end up being a major part of that, but who knows?

I'd also be interested to see how much of a swing the Greens got in the bush. Seems an increasing number of farmers are realising that the greens are far less of an enemy than the major parties, and vice versa. Again, could have an influence on the way policy is formed when the Greens gain the balance of power.

The National Party have always been socially conservative but economically agrarian socialist (I have always wondered why they stuck with the Liberals). When they failed to promote these policies during the Howard years, they started bleeding support to these rural independents like Katter.

Just have a look at the economic policies/stances of these independents. They are more socialist than the Labor party. Labor's NBN may win them over. With some luck we might not have shitty internet for another 10 years.

[weemadando]

Anyone else watch Q&A last night?

Gillard made a big mistake in pulling Arbib from a panel that featured Albrechtson, Tony Windsor (Ind MHR), Sarah Hansen-Young, Graeme Richardson (who as former Labor folks go sits somewhere close to Latham in the loveability scale) and Malcolm Turnbull.

I mean, the jokes about "the faceless men of the Labor party cannot appear on Q&A because then we'd get to see their faces" were running thick and there were almost as many grenades being lobbed at that empty chair as Maxine McKew threw in her concession speech.

Sure it's a relatively minor thing, but the fact that there were so many questions asked by the audience about how pulling Arbib from the panel might reflect upon Gillard's views on public accountability that at least some of that has to be coming from the general populist thought sphere.

[Stofsk]

Ando, are you going to keep Anthony Green as your avatar until this election gets resolved?

[weemadando]

I think I will. Or at least until I find a good pic of my next intended av.

[adam_grif]

Antony gets a little bit excited about statistics. Every time he was staring at his monitor on ABC's live coverage of the counting, he had this great big shit eating grin on his face, like he was getting some under the desk. Then he'd look up and say something completely bland like "... a four point three percent swing to the coalition in the district of hypothetica."

[tim31]

At one point he was talking and Kerry O'Brien misinterpreted something he said and tried to correct him. The look was priceless.

The National Party have always been socially conservative but economically agrarian socialist (I have always wondered why they stuck with the Liberals). When they failed to promote these policies during the Howard years, they started bleeding support to these rural independents like Katter.

Just have a look at the economic policies/stances of these independents. They are more socialist than the Labor party. Labor's NBN may win them over. With some luck we might not have shitty internet for another 10 years.

This is just a punt, but the division probably lies in the ALP being 'big city unionists', and the socially conservative agenda of the Libs being enough of a chord. It does make the 'revenge of rural Australia' seem almost inevitable though. New England is one of the earlier example of this, what with Tony Windsor(a former Nat himself) winning the seat from the previously entrenched Nationals(since 1922!). Just a few years before an Independent had taken the NSW seat of Northern Tablelands(with New England) from the Nats.

[Stark]

Anyone else watch Q&A last night?

Gillard made a big mistake in pulling Arbib from a panel that featured Albrechtson, Tony Windsor (Ind MHR), Sarah Hansen-Young, Graeme Richardson (who as former Labor folks go sits somewhere close to Latham in the loveability scale) and Malcolm Turnbull.

I mean, the jokes about "the faceless men of the Labor party cannot appear on Q&A because then we'd get to see their faces" were running thick and there were almost as many grenades being lobbed at that empty chair as Maxine McKew threw in her concession speech.

Sure it's a relatively minor thing, but the fact that there were so many questions asked by the audience about how pulling Arbib from the panel might reflect upon Gillard's views on public accountability that at least some of that has to be coming from the general populist thought sphere.

If the Labor party wasn't structurally forced to give power to faceless union mafias maybe they'd be less retarded.

[JointStrikeFighter]

Ironicly rudds autocratic manner prbly acted to reduce union influence on the labor party.

[Stark]

And look what happened to HIM.

[Archaic`]

Some interesting rumblings coming from the scrutineers on Twitter are suggesting that the Liberals might be able to pull an outright victory out of their asses. The AEC has already put Corangamite back on their doubtful list after the initial batch of postals slashed the Labor lead to less than 500 or so votes. Lindsay and Greenway are also apparently getting close, and could be on the doubtful list themselves by the end of the day. There's also a recount going on for the seat of Grayndler (which would presumably go to Green if it doesn't go to Labor), but it's hard to see how the result would change there as of yet.

[Uraniun235]

Wait I thought you guys already knew who the victors were.

[JointStrikeFighter]

And look what happened to HIM.

Threats of labor literally being the union party are pretty much gone though. Only good thing Howard did was killing the unions lol

[Stark]

I'm pretty sure Labor must have some proportion of union guys, or something.

[Ford Prefect]

Wait I thought you guys already knew who the victors were.

Normally we would know who had won government on the night of voting, but this year neither major party won a clear majority. So while we knew the result on Saturday night, more or less, that result was 'no winner lol'. Both parties secured about seventy out of the seventy six seats required for a majority, with four seats outright going to a Green and three independants, so there currently aren't enough remaining seats in doubt for either party to win.

At least, that was the situation yesterday, Archaic has mentioned some stuff that might change things up. Until the last few seats are calculated and the recounts are done, we won't really know how this parliament is going to work. Both major parties are wooing the independants pretty hardcore though - they're even wooing the independant in my seat who hasn't won yet. It's an unusual election. We haven't had a hung parliament since WWII.

[Phantasee]

And we've been stuck with minority governments for the better part of the last decade.

[Archaic`]

they're even wooing the independant in my seat who hasn't won yet.

The Tassie independent? Antony's given it to him, barring any weird Green surge in the primary votes in postals. He's in an odd position. 3rd overall on primaries, but the Green preferences pushed him into 2nd, and all Liberals put him above Labor. If the Greens get a few thousand more in postals though, then he's eliminated first instead of them, and it becomes a whole new ball game. I don't know where his preferences would go, but you'd imagine a lot of Green ones would go to Labor, probably putting them over the line.

[Ford Prefect]

Yeah, Andrew Wilkie. He was ahead of Jonathon Jackson by about 1200 votes yesterday, with about ten thousand postal votes to count. Both Gillard and Abbott have been on the phone to him already since Sunday. In any case, even if he doesn't win it means that no one will take Denison for granted again.

[weemadando]

I think that had much more to do with Duncan Kerr being a fairly exemplary MHR than it did to do with Denison being a safe Labor seat. Denison has that wonderful mix of demographics due to it being the only urbanised electorate in Tasmania that people should have perhaps wondered about instead of going: "it's been Labor for 20 years, I'm sure it'll stay Labor now that Kerr is retiring."