Why Nothing About the Pakistan Flood?

[Broomstick]

We've had threads on the Boxing Day Tsunami, the Haiti Earthquake, Katrina in the US, volcanic clouds grounding air travel in Europe, lots of other natural disaster threads...

Why nothing on the floods in Pakistan?

[Broomstick]

Here is a map of the affected parts of the country:


The situation is quite dire . India - not known to have much love for Pakistan - has offered money and aid. Which, in a way, is extraordinary as the two countries have had border disputes and threatened war for decades. And despite the fact that the border region of India is also affected by this flooding and they have their own to worry about as well.

The death toll stands at 1600 as of today, waterborne diseases have broken out, and tens of thousands are displaced and homeless.

[UnderAGreySky]

We've had quite a few problems on our side of Kashmir as well, a couple of hundred people died and as many were missing thanks to a cloudburst. Things have eased off a bit, thankfully.

The Indus gets thicker as you go through Pakistan. A lot of rivers join up as tributaries. The five sisters - Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers - are just some of those (these flow through India too). And the north of the subcontinent has been hit by unusually high rains. Delhi has a flood warning for the Yamuna river tomorrow. So all that water (not the Yamuna - that feeds the Ganga/Ganges) goes into the Indus. A recipe for disaster.

I hope that people in Pakistan can acknowledge the aid they are getting from the west - the "white people" are constantly painted as devils in the rural areas by the Taliban to drum up support for insurgency / militancy / terrorism. This has potential to change.

[Lord of the Abyss]

We've had threads on the Boxing Day Tsunami, the Haiti Earthquake, Katrina in the US, volcanic clouds grounding air travel in Europe, lots of other natural disaster threads...

Why nothing on the floods in Pakistan?

We do, actually. No activity since the 12th, though.

[Broomstick]

Darn - and I searched, too, but obviously not well enough. Well, I suppose we can continue from here or merge the threads or whatever.

[UnderAGreySky]

And like I feared....

Pakistanis blame the US for not doing enough

Try holding a stable government for more than a decade at a time first.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Meh.. As an Indian colleague of mine says, Pakistan will blame everyone except themselves for the mess of a dyfunctional country they created.

They will blame India 99% of the time, of course.

[UnderAGreySky]

Actually, I'm partly surprised to not have seen reports (yet) about the floods being caused by India opening dam gates or some such rubbish on the Indian side of Kashmir.

Well, I just did an internet search and there *are* allegations but they are confined to blogs and pseudo-news sources, so I won't count them in. Yet.

[Broomstick]

And now, in addition to Flood, they have Pestilence

Shahdadkot, Pakistan (CNN) -- For almost a million Pakistanis, the misery of epic flooding covering one-fifth of the country has now taken the form of communicable illnesses.

Cases of acute diarrhea have topped 204,000, the World Health Organization announced Sunday. The number of skin diseases -- such as scabies -- has topped 263,300.

More than 204,600 Pakistanis have reported acute respiratory infections as filthy waters surround homeless flood victims, WHO said.

Thousands have cases of suspected malaria.

"Strong water and sanitation interventions, such as providing clean drinking water supply and addressing environmental hazards, are urgently needed to prevent outbreaks of waterborne diseases in" Charsadda, Nowshera and Peshawar, WHO said.

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has called a meeting for Tuesday of senior Pakistani health officials, local officials, U.N. agencies and other international group to look into the emerging health crisis, state-run TV reported.

Meanwhile, the half-million residents of Shahdadkot frantically tried to flee their homes over the weekend as a wall of water threatened to burst mud berms and drown the entire city in Pakistan's Sindh province.

Three weeks into the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, people were still desperate to escape as a second wave of monsoon floodwaters surged southward. More than 1,500 people have died and 20 million lives have been disrupted.

Residents climbed onto heaps of belongings piled high in the beds of rickety trucks, packed buses, auto-rickshaws and carts to get out of town before the water came. Many did not know where they were going -- just that they had to reach dryer ground.

But there weren't enough vehicles for a mass evacuation.

Sunat Magsi and her 100-strong extended family lost their nine mud huts to the raging torrents. They sought shelter in an abandoned house but even there, the water was creeping higher. They only had one donkey and one cart left.

"We have so many children here," Magsi said, weeping. "We don't know how we're going to get out. We need help."

Pakistan is dotted with villages, towns and cities submerged like Shahdadkot. Floodwaters are expected to recede in the next few days as the last surges in the Indus flow into the Arabian Sea.

But the suffering is sure to continue. Health officials fear that the human toll will get a lot worse as people are forced to wade through unsanitary water while clean drinking water is scarce.

More than 200 health facilities have been damaged or destroyed, according to the World Health Organization, greatly reducing the available health care for millions of survivors in filthy conditions. At least 4 million people are homeless.

"The depth of suffering is incalculable as risks escalate of diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, malaria and other communicable diseases," said Dr. Guido Sabatinelli of the World Health Organization. "It is crucial that all humanitarian health providers, local and national, coordinate their relief efforts closely to save lives, reduce suffering and deliver the most effective response."

WHO said waterborne, airborne and vector-borne diseases, including acute watery diarrhea, measles, malaria and acute respiratory infections, are threats due to overcrowding, lack of hygiene and breakage in waterlines.

The focus is now turning to heading off more disease, particularly among young children, WHO said.

More than 100,000 children have been given polio shots in Charsadda and Peshawar regions in the first three days of a new vaccination program.

I don't know if this is common knowledge or not - polio is a waterborne disease, spread by contaminated human waste getting into the drinking water supply. Needless to say, with much of Pakistan's water supply compromised this is a serious issue.

United Nations officials have appealed for $460 million over the next three months to help the roughly 20 million people in need of shelter, food and emergency care.

Imram Khan, a political activist and former Pakistani cricket player, said the real damage from the flooding will be witnesses once the water subsides.

"I don't think the international community fully comprehends the extent of the disaster, because ... the real problem is going to come when the water recedes," Khan told CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" on Sunday. "The biggest fear is that about 20 million people will be completely impoverished. Now, most of these are subsistence farmers, so they have lost their crops. They have lost their animals."

The area affected by the flooding is also Pakistan's greatest area cotton crops, he said.

The desperation at camps for evacuees is such that people fight over aid trucks that come in, Khan said.

If the situation is not stabilized soon, the situation could become dire, he warned.

"The consequences in three months of this -- if this is not addressed by us -- the country is going to go into chaos," Khan said. "We could implode. We could have starving people. And you're talking, again, about 20 million people in dire straits. Where are they going to go with no food, no homes, no money, no crops, no animals?"

Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund officials said they will meet with members of the Pakistani government in Washington next week to discuss the economic impact of the massive floods that have ravaged the country.

"The floods, which have hit Pakistan in recent weeks and brought suffering to millions of people, will also pose a massive economic challenge to the people and government of Pakistan," said Masood Ahmed, director of IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department.

Ahmed says the meeting will be an opportunity to evaluate the economic impact of the floods, assess what Pakistan's government is doing to respond to it and "discuss ways in which the IMF can assist Pakistan at this difficult juncture."

Seriously, what is the track record of the IMF in "helping" countries suffering disaster? I honestly don't know. Do they actually help, or just impose loans and debt on the the already devastated?

[UnderAGreySky]

Jeebus those are horrendous numbers. I expected the illness rates to be in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds. This problem is not going to be curing itself, it's going to need tonnes of outside assistance. I hope countries - yes, including mine - can do all that it takes to correct the damage.

[Broomstick]

I suspect the Indian government has a much firmer grip on the magnitude of the situation than many others for two reasons: 1) some of their population is also affected and 2) they're enemies AND close neighbors, so I would assume some segment of India keeps a VERY close eye on what goes on in Pakistan (and vice versa).

The world seems to respond best to "instant" disasters, or at least ones that happen in a very short time frame. Hence - dramatic reactions to earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes... This is more of a slow-motion disaster, building gradually to catastrophe but not occurring in one fell swoop.

Additionally, Pakistan is not a world power, and isn't terribly extroverted or welcoming to outsiders. When Bali was bombed by extremists it was shocking because of Bali's reputation as a welcoming island paradise, and the number of tourists affected that tied other countries into the tragedy. We saw this also the Boxing Day Tsunami. Haiti was not so directly connected to the outside world but the earthquake and its destruction occurred in minutes and was highly dramatic. The debacle in New Orleans with Katrina occurred in a First World country.

But in all those cases after the initial blip the world's attention largely turned elsewhere and people are still struggling with the after effects. With Pakistan the world doesn't seem particularly focused on the epic tragedy, and ennui is already setting in.

Yes, the numbers of sick and dying are horrific. It is very gracious of India to extend a hand to a neighbor it has been in conflict with for decades. Unfortunately, it will not be enough. I sincerely hope they do receive help from may sources because the alternative will make the current numbers look small in comparison.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Pakistan's situation probably isn't helped by the recent revelations that they have been duplicitious and consorting with known terrorists and aiding the Taliban in Afghanistan.

That aside, I won't be surprised that Pakistan would rather commit suicide rather than accept help from India.

[weemadando]

There's multiple reasons. Charity and care fatigue this year due to the other aforementioned disasters.

Then there's the possibility that people don't give two shits about Pakistan because at the very least they are indirectly supporting those who are busy killing our soldiers in Afghanistan, or killing civilians in Mumbai. The way that is being sold in Australia at least is as "we are unsure that the relief would reach the right people."

[UnderAGreySky]

Yeah, not all Indians are totally pleased about the offer of aid. The right wingers, of course, 'demanded an explanation' and all. Thankfully, the government's response to the floods on the Indian side has been relatively swift. 1250 million Rupees aid (USD 25 million) was announced, which is quite significant in Indian money.

[Shroom Man 777]

Anyone want to guess the long-term geopolitical effects of this thing? How bad will it be for Pakistan on the long run? Will it be a kind of disaster that'll literally knock the country off its feet, something it can't take or can't just withstand?

[Broomstick]

Do keep in mind the Pakistan has nuclear weapons now. Presumably, since their leadership is not entirely stupid, these are secure but if the country goes entirely to hell (and this is potentially that destabilizing a situation) it could become the way such weapons fall into the hands of those, say we say, more inclined to use them than the current possessors. Which might also be a factor in why a country such as India is rendering aid - to keep the situation from deteriorating into those very circumstances.

[Edi]

The relief effort has started slowly in Europe as well.

I read an excellent article on the floods a few days ago and one reason why they have been so devastating is that the Indus has been dammed at several places, which makes its natural flood cycle more unpredictable and potentially violent. The lack of riverside wetlands (all dried up and settled) exacerbates that. Then there is the fact that this year the monsoon rains roared in straight up the Indus River valley from the Arabian sea instead of coming in from the southeast over the mountains from the Indian side. So instead of getting the tail end of mostly spent monsoon rains, they got the full blast and it kept going for weeks on end.

Bad, bad combination.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Do keep in mind the Pakistan has nuclear weapons now. Presumably, since their leadership is not entirely stupid, these are secure but if the country goes entirely to hell (and this is potentially that destabilizing a situation) it could become the way such weapons fall into the hands of those, say we say, more inclined to use them than the current possessors. Which might also be a factor in why a country such as India is rendering aid - to keep the situation from deteriorating into those very circumstances.

Doubt it. The civilian leadership can't be trusted to stay with the country when the going gets really rough. The current leadership is already known for corruption of the first order, and many do not pay taxes. If by anything, it's the military that can be trusted to an extent, assuming the chain of command holds. However, the military is also known to be particularly hawkish and paranoid.

It's a really messed up country.

[Big Orange]

Pakistan has been a slow motion train crash since the late 90s and early 00s, it really seems to be a country that's collapsing into total ruin (rather than mostly stagnating ala Japan, Britain, Argentina, Russia or America). Pakistan in the name of national defence has economically hollowed out itself to make nukes and been in cahoots with terrorists (putting the squeeze on India) but it's not really working out and biting them on the backside. Although the situation has been worsened by the establishment of towns and farmlands in unsuitable locations and inadvisable river damming, it's an uncontrollable natural event and we shouldn't turn our backs on the Pakistani populace because of their crooked government (Haiti's politically corrupted and crazy to the core as well).

With similar floods in China as well and a very bad firestorm in Russia starting roughly around the same time, could this be down to Global Warming?

[Broomstick]

Although the situation has been worsened by the establishment of towns and farmlands in unsuitable locations

Unsuitable? Clearly, farms need to be in proximity to water, and the Indus river fulfills that role. From the viewpoint of farming setting up in a floodplain actually makes a lot of sense, and periodic flooding and silt deposition renews the soil fertility. There IS the problem of flooded homes, of course, but there are some architectural solutions (such as building on stilts) to alleviate most of the problem. Can't speak for everyone, but along the Mississippi in the US there have been generations of farmers in the flood plains (often with silt homes) and in the Amazon region of South America people also have adapted to living in fertile floodplains (again, with stilt homes, treehouses, etc.)

and inadvisable river damming

And that is a problem... not only that, but it wouldn't surprise me if the dams weren't managed particularly well.

it's an uncontrollable natural event and we shouldn't turn our backs on the Pakistani populace because of their crooked government (Haiti's politically corrupted and crazy to the core as well).

And that's really what folks should focus on. The vast majority of the 20 million displaced Pakistanis have nothing whatsoever to do with their government's corruption, with terrorists, with poor decisions on a national level. They're just folks trying to survive, care for their families, and make a living. Even where human action or inaction has made the situation worse, the focus should still be on alleviating human suffering for several reasons.

With similar floods in China as well and a very bad firestorm in Russia starting roughly around the same time, could this be down to Global Warming?

Personally, I prefer the term "climate change", but yes, these events certainly could be either manifestations of the changing climate or worsened by changing climate.

[Whiplash]

And like I feared....

Pakistanis blame the US for not doing enough

Try holding a stable government for more than a decade at a time first.

The irony is that we have people bitching here for doing anything at all for them instead fixing our own problems.

[Guardsman Bass]

Seriously, what is the track record of the IMF in "helping" countries suffering disaster? I honestly don't know. Do they actually help, or just impose loans and debt on the the already devastated?

They mostly do loans. When they say "help," what they presumably mean is that the IMF will get into negotiations with Pakistan for relief on the debt that the latter owes the former.

[Edward Yee]

From the latest Yahoo! News article...

The Pakistani Taliban on Thursday hinted that they might attack foreign aid workers, a swelling number of whom have been landing in the country to help with the crisis. The militant network has a history of attacking aid groups, including agencies under the U.N. umbrella.

Pakistani Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq claimed Thursday that the U.S. and other countries that have pledged support are not really focused on providing aid to flood victims but had other motives he did not specify.

"Behind the scenes they have certain intentions, but on the face they are talking of relief and help," Tariq told The Associated Press by telephone from an undisclosed location. "No relief is reaching the affected people, and when the victims are not receiving help, then this horde of foreigners is not acceptable to us at all."

He strongly hinted that the militants could resort to violence.

U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes said the U.N. remained committed to helping flood victims in Pakistan.

"We will obviously take these threats seriously as we did before, and take appropriate precautions, but we will not be deterred from doing what we believe we need to do, which is help the people of Pakistan," he told a news conference at U.N. headquarters in New York.

Other aid organizations noted that Pakistan has long been a high-risk environment for foreigners, and said their security plans took such concerns into account. Such groups rarely give specifics on their security procedures, however, to avoid tipping off would-be assailants.

See, we would hope that this is the sort of thing that would cause the people, even of the NWFP and tribal areas, to really turn on the Taliban... but no, probably not gonna happen. Would certainly explain sentiments that the Fingolfin and weemadando pointed out.

[Broomstick]

I'm not going to quote the whole article because much of it is repetitious, but another million people have been displaced over the past couple days.

[The Yosemite Bear]

I've been watching BBC News on cable, and theve been covering it quite a bit, along with the miners in Chile (too bad that kinda effort couldn't be spared for those miners in WV), the floods in China, and the mass deportation of Roma from France.