Massive solar storm to hit Earth in 2012

[Justforfun000]

http://in.news.yahoo.com/139/20100826/9 ... -in_1.html

Massive solar storm to hit Earth in 2012 with 'force of 100m bombs'

Thu, Aug 26 12:50 PM

Melbourne, Aug 26 (ANI): Astronomers are predicting that a massive solar storm, much bigger in potential than the one that caused spectacular light shows on Earth earlier this month, is to strike our planet in 2012 with a force of 100 million hydrogen bombs.

Several US media outlets have reported that NASA was warning the massive flare this month was just a precursor to a massive solar storm building that had the potential to wipe out the entire planet's power grid.

Despite its rebuttal, NASA's been watching out for this storm since 2006 and reports from the US this week claim the storms could hit on that most Hollywood of disaster dates - 2012.

Similar storms back in 1859 and 1921 caused worldwide chaos, wiping out telegraph wires on a massive scale. The 2012 storm has the potential to be even more disruptive.

"The general consensus among general astronomers (and certainly solar astronomers) is that this coming Solar maximum (2012 but possibly later into 2013) will be the most violent in 100 years," News.com.au quoted astronomy lecturer and columnist Dave Reneke as saying.

"A bold statement and one taken seriously by those it will affect most, namely airline companies, communications companies and anyone working with modern GPS systems.

"They can even trip circuit breakers and knock out orbiting satellites, as has already been done this year," added Reneke.

No one really knows what effect the 2012-2013 Solar Max will have on today's digital-reliant society.

Dr Richard Fisher, director of NASA's Heliophysics division, told Reneke the super storm would hit like "a bolt of lightning", causing catastrophic consequences for the world's health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken.

NASA said that a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause "1 to 2 trillion dollars in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to 10 years for complete recovery".

The reason for the concern comes as the sun enters a phase known as Solar Cycle 24.

Most experts agree, although those who put the date of Solar Max in 2012 are getting the most press.

They claim satellites will be aged by 50 years, rendering GPS even more useless than ever, and the blast will have the equivalent energy of 100 million hydrogen bombs.

"We know it is coming but we don't know how bad it is going to be," Fisher told Reneke.

"Systems will just not work. The flares change the magnetic field on the Earth and it's rapid, just like a lightning bolt. That's the solar effect," he added.

The findings are published in the most recent issue of Australasian Science. (ANI)

Thoughts?

[Crossroads Inc.]

Hitting in....2012???
OMG!
It really will be the end of the world!!

[adam_grif]

IIRC, NASA was predicting the peak of this solar cycle to hit in 2013.

[Broomstick]

My thoughts?

Since I'm one of the few people left in the country able and willing to read a roadmap instead of GPS I'll be the only one who isn't lost.

Most likely, some fools will run around in a gibbering panic. Me, at most it will be an annoyance, and I'll just keep sailing along.

[cosmicalstorm]

Might be some hype here.

Expert rubbishes solar storm claims

Australia's leading body responsible for monitoring space weather has dismissed claims that a massive solar storm could wipe out the Earth's entire power grid.

One report quotes an Australian astronomer as saying "the storm is likely to come sooner rather than later".

But Dr Phil Wilkinson, the assistant director of the Bureau of Meteorology's Ionospheric Prediction Service, says claims that this coming solar maximum will be the most violent in 100 years are not factual.

"All this talk about gloom and doom has selling power, but I'm certain it's overstated," he said.

"[It's] going far beyond what's realistic and could be worrying or concerning for people who don't really understand the underlying science behind it all.

"The real message should be that the coming solar maximum period could be equally as hazardous as any other solar maximum."

11-year cycle

The Sun goes through an 11-year solar cycle moving from a period of low activity called solar minimum to a time of heightened activity called solar maximum.

During solar maximum there is an increase in sun spot activity, which are dark patches on the Sun's surface caused by magnetic field lines breaking through the Sun's surface.

Because the Sun is not a solid object like the Earth, different parts of it rotate at different speeds, which cause these magnetic field lines to twist and stretch, eventually snapping like elastic bands.

When they snap, they produce an eruption of electromagnetic energy called a solar flare and are sometimes accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME).

If directed at Earth, charged particles within the CME slam into the magnetosphere, resulting in the northern and southern auroral lights.

Previous CME events have damaged spacecraft, interfered with communications systems and overloaded ground-based power grids.

Precautions

Despite the potential threat, Dr Wilkinson says authorities are aware of them and are taking precautions.

"We monitor solar activity and issue warnings if something is heading our way," he said.

"That will be at least a few hours [in advance], enough time to prepare."

He says while some satellites could be damaged by a future CME, others could be protected by being placed in "safe mode".

Dr Wilkinson adds the impact on power grids would be minimal.

"At worst, it's a regional thing, not a global thing as these reports imply," he said.

He says high frequency communications may also be affected, but it would be temporary.

According to Dr Wilkinson, the Sun has been through a long solar minimum and appears to be heading into a low solar maximum.

Previous observations have shown this could result in high spikes of CME activity.

"It means we could see auroral activity over all of Australia rather than just the higher latitudes," Dr Wilkinson said.

"It's unusual, but not unprecedented. James Cook made mention of just such an event off Timor."

[Justforfun000]

Ah. I was wondering if this could be over hyped. Figured I'd find out the truth here. Thanks.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Ah. I was wondering if this could be over hyped. Figured I'd find out the truth here. Thanks.

Shoot if I see ANYTHING in association with 2012, I automatically write it off at this point. If they had said "Deadly Solar Flares in 2013" I might have been more inclined to look inti it

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Ah. I was wondering if this could be over hyped. Figured I'd find out the truth here. Thanks.

It is massively over-hyped. Yes, the solar maximum will fall between 2012 and 2013, but that's no guarantee that Earth will be hit with a powerful solar storm. For a potent solar storm to have an effect on us, it has to be pretty much aimed at us. Since the sun is a sphere, and solar storms can occur just about anywhere on its surface, the chances that a catastrophic storm will occur that is aimed at Earth aren't high.

[Rogue 9]

By what mechanism would it wipe out the power grid, anyway? I can see disrupting electronics, but I find the destruction of the physical grid... improbable.

[Serafina]

By what mechanism would it wipe out the power grid, anyway? I can see disrupting electronics, but I find the destruction of the physical grid... improbable.

I think it would induce large currents in the electricity lines, which might damage them. It's mostly dangerous to them since they are so large.
IIRC, that can happen far north already when solar activity increases, but i might be wrong on that.

[Broomstick]

For an example of an actual solar-induced power outage I refer you to the 1989 Geomagnetic Storm that knocked out power in a large area of Quebec. Yes, it's Wikipedia but it's a quick and dirty summation of the event and effects and you're free to investigate other sources now that you know the location and date.

Which is one reason I don't worry about DIRE WARNINGS LIKE THIS! This shit has already happened. Like I said - it's annoyance, not Armageddon.

OK, let's be clear about this: when the phrase "destroy the power grid" is tossed around it does NOT mean the actual physical structures are blasted by Space Rays and dissolve in a rainbow of light effects, m'kay? It means power goes out. Some damage may occur to the physical structure due to what happens when any power outage occurs (the technical details I am not qualified to explain) but for the most part the physical structure of the grid remains and can be re-energized. The hitch is that it's not as simple as flicking a switch in your house. High capacity power transmission over long distances is a lot different than what most of us are used to dealing with.

[Serafina]

The only difference is that we have lot's of satellites now who are much more vulnerable, but that's about it. It certainly won't wipe out civilisation.

[Broomstick]

Yes. Of course, we had satellites in 1989, too.

There are satellites and space thingies out there to specifically monitor sun spot activity. We actually DO get warning these days of these events. In some cases, satellites can have their orbits altered, or they can angle their most vulnerable bits into their own "shadow", to enable them to survive such things. Satellites are more and more being built with mechanisms to mitigate the damage such storms cause.

Sure, our communication, navigation, and weather monitoring systems will take a hit, but solar flares and ejection events happen all the time. Life goes on. A particularly big one will, of course, cause more problems than a small one but our various technological systems will be restored in fairly short order.

[Temujin]

By what mechanism would it wipe out the power grid, anyway? I can see disrupting electronics, but I find the destruction of the physical grid... improbable.

I think it would induce large currents in the electricity lines, which might damage them. It's mostly dangerous to them since they are so large.
IIRC, that can happen far north already when solar activity increases, but i might be wrong on that.

I'm to lazy to look it up, but IIRC it's the generator turbines that are a big ticket item that if they get blown out will take months to years to replace, as there are few people who can build them.

But yeah, this whole thing is hype. We've recorded plenty of CMEs of massive size that haven't hit the Earth, so worrying about this one because its 2012 is just irresponsible bullshit.

[General Zod]

Hitting with the force of "100 million hydrogen bombs" sounds like a gross oversimplification of something. I'm pretty sure some facts were being skewed with that figure.

[Sarevok]

By what mechanism would it wipe out the power grid, anyway? I can see disrupting electronics, but I find the destruction of the physical grid... improbable.

I think it would induce large currents in the electricity lines, which might damage them. It's mostly dangerous to them since they are so large.
IIRC, that can happen far north already when solar activity increases, but i might be wrong on that.

I'm to lazy to look it up, but IIRC it's the generator turbines that are a big ticket item that if they get blown out will take months to years to replace, as there are few people who can build them.
.

Uh no. What happens is that you get induced currents in power lines. This causes core saturation and affects the ability of transformers to operate. The actual current is IIRC very low. It cant cause any damage on it's own.

[Temujin]

Hitting with the force of "100 million hydrogen bombs" sounds like a gross oversimplification of something. I'm pretty sure some facts were being skewed with that figure.

It's probably loosely related to the overall amount of energy released in a CME, not the actual amount that will impact the Earth. But the article is obviously sensationalist so you never know.

I'm to lazy to look it up, but IIRC it's the generator turbines that are a big ticket item that if they get blown out will take months to years to replace, as there are few people who can build them.

Uh no. What happens is that you get induced currents in power lines. This causes core saturation and affects the ability of transformers to operate. The actual current is IIRC very low. It cant cause any damage on it's own.

Yeah, I knew something wasn't right about that. So, I got off my lazy ass and looked it up; hey I got nothing better to do!

This is what I was thinking of:

No Spare Transformers

Large transformers are very expensive pieces of equipment (~$10 million). Since catastrophic transformer failures are extremely infrequent, power plants do not keep spare units. Lead times for ordering and delivery of new units can be quite significant (up to a year). While waiting for a new transformer, a power plant would be inoperable.

[Sea Skimmer]

Transformers are at huge risk, and the solution is dead simple. If such a storm occurs we will have warning from satellites Radio transmissions travel faster then most of the energy in a solar flare. Turn the grid the fuck off until it passes. Peoples home electronics meanwhile will be protected by plain old surge protectors. The stuff that is at serious risk is going to be mainly emergency systems like generators as hospitals which simply cannot be turned off along with the rest of the grid, even for a few minutes, and which are not EMP hardened. Even then systems like that would have some built in protection. Anything we do to the grid to protect against lightening strikes will help against EMP and it will help against solar flares. The problem is its hard to predict damage from solar flares, and our ability to do full scale testing to learn more is very limited since we can only generate part of the energy pulse at a time with some rather huge antenna systems.

Claiming that a power plant will be inoperative without one transformer is bullshit anyway. Find a major power plant that just has one… they don’t exist. If some transformers are killed but not others then partial grid power can still be restored, and lots of cannibalization can take place. People have been calling for a US national transformer stockpile for years now, but the main reason is because most transformers are now made in China, almost nothing big is made in the US anymore, and China is gaining lots of ways to physically and electronically attack the US power grid.

[atg]

Since I'm one of the few people left in the country able and willing to read a roadmap instead of GPS I'll be the only one who isn't lost.

This. The amount of people I find around here that have to use a GPS to get around town to places they've been to previously astonishes me. Luckily after doing a few years of on-site call out work I know a) how to use a street directory pretty damm easily, and b) have most of Adelaide's major roads memorised and where each one ends up.

Oh a few months ago I had someone ask me what a street directory was.

[Sarevok]

Transformers are at huge risk, and the solution is dead simple. If such a storm occurs we will have warning from satellites Radio transmissions travel faster then most of the energy in a solar flare. Turn the grid the fuck off until it passes. Peoples home electronics meanwhile will be protected by plain old surge protectors. The stuff that is at serious risk is going to be mainly emergency systems like generators as hospitals which simply cannot be turned off along with the rest of the grid, even for a few minutes, and which are not EMP hardened. Even then systems like that would have some built in protection. Anything we do to the grid to protect against lightening strikes will help against EMP and it will help against solar flares. The problem is its hard to predict damage from solar flares, and our ability to do full scale testing to learn more is very limited since we can only generate part of the energy pulse at a time with some rather huge antenna systems.

Claiming that a power plant will be inoperative without one transformer is bullshit anyway. Find a major power plant that just has one… they don’t exist. If some transformers are killed but not others then partial grid power can still be restored, and lots of cannibalization can take place. People have been calling for a US national transformer stockpile for years now, but the main reason is because most transformers are now made in China, almost nothing big is made in the US anymore, and China is gaining lots of ways to physically and electronically attack the US power grid.

Don't you require very long (hundreds of kilometer long wires here) conductors for significant currents to be induced ? Does not that mean that isolated generators in buildings, ships, aircraft etc would be unaffected by solar activity ?

[Sea Skimmer]

Don't you require very long (hundreds of kilometer long wires here) conductors for significant currents to be induced ? Does not that mean that isolated generators in buildings, ships, aircraft etc would be unaffected by solar activity ?

You do need some big lengths, but it depends on the details of the storm and even what time of day it strikes. So we can’t say that much. A generator in a building can be linked into a pretty massive length of wiring, so you’ve still got risk even if you are isolated from the power grid. If the power grid is merely shut down, then a lot of wiring outside the building may also still be connected depending on how the isolation breakers are setup. Ships and aircraft tend to have at least a minimal level of shielding, because they get exposed to high power radio signals all the time from radar, but this isn't necessary going to help against a huge solar flare. But basically anything that will survive a lighting strike should have decent resistance. But if a big enough solar flare took place, we could be talking about most of the earths population being dead in the first place.

[starslayer]

But if a big enough solar flare took place, we could be talking about most of the earths population being dead in the first place.

Er, no. The Sun is not capable of producing such an eruption; you'd basically be talking about a strong enough flare to strip off the ozone layer, which no flare in the Sun's history has ever done. If a repeat of the 1859 solar storm were to occur today, for example, the grid would suffer catastrophic damage if not already shut off, and there would be damage even if it was, but direct human casualties would be nonexistent, unless they were working on the transformers or transmission lines when the CME hit.

As has been said, the article is complete bullshit. We have no way of predicting how intense any given solar maximum will be, nor the intensity of CME or flare that a given sunspot cluster will produce.

[CaptainChewbacca]

But if a big enough solar flare took place, we could be talking about most of the earths population being dead in the first place.

Skimmer, do me a favor. Get a grape and a pin. Put the pin in something so its upright. Sit across your kitchen table, about 3 feet away from the pin. Squeeze the grape. Let me know how many tries it takes you to hit the pin if your squeezing and orientation is random.

That's the odds of an extinction-level solar flare hitting us.

[Sarevok]

Well the Sun is not a flare star. So we do not have to worry about sudden and unpredictable activity of dangerous proportions.

[Temujin]

But if a big enough solar flare took place, we could be talking about most of the earths population being dead in the first place.

Er, no. The Sun is not capable of producing such an eruption; you'd basically be talking about a strong enough flare to strip off the ozone layer, which no flare in the Sun's history has ever done. If a repeat of the 1859 solar storm were to occur today, for example, the grid would suffer catastrophic damage if not already shut off, and there would be damage even if it was, but direct human casualties would be nonexistent, unless they were working on the transformers or transmission lines when the CME hit.

As has been said, the article is complete bullshit. We have no way of predicting how intense any given solar maximum will be, nor the intensity of CME or flare that a given sunspot cluster will produce.

I've heard of speculation regarding an ozone destroying solar flare, but is our Sun normally even capable of such an event (i.e, from regular solar flare activity), or would it take some unusual changes in it's behavior to produce something of that magnitude.