Resisting an Invasion

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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Purple »

Simon_Jester wrote:Maybe a trace of wormhole activity is detectable but drive activity is not, not when the trail is years cold?
Does it have to be cold? The OP said that the aliens will be able to:
They inform us that in 1 - 3 years, the enemy will be able to reverse engineer the technology required to safely traverse wormholes and assault Earth directly.
Hence they will be at least as fast as we are if not faster due to superior ship building and engineers that actually understand the technology. And they will be able to track where we jumped off to. So they only need to find us once, and it is all over.

And besides, if they have a huge, galaxy spanning empire of death searching a small asteroid belt or other such areas suggested here that seem huge to us should be trivial to them.
Look, we don't know enough to be sure. My point is that as a general rule, if you have that large a head start, you can outdistance a pursuer that doesn't know exactly where to find you. Because to chase you without an exact fix on the vector you took, they would need a geometrically increasing number of ships to search an ever-expanding sphere... at some point, it's just too large a diversion from their other resources.
Or they can just let us fly off until we run out of spare parts, food, water and oxygen and die on our own.
Beats collective suicide.
Does it? I do think that is a mater of opinion.
Junghalli wrote:Waste heat might be a problem but I imagine even megawatt light sources would be pretty dim over these kinds of distances. Even Pluto would outshine one by thousands of times at the same distance IIRC.
The enemy is likely to be far more advanced in terms of sensors than we are. It's only logical since they are far more advanced in terms of everything else. Hence what is a small blip to us might well be a huge flashing signal to them.
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Arachnidus wrote:Only option I'd see is stalling for time,
How would we stall for time? The OP says we have a minimum time of 1 - 3 years, and a century at most. The only way we could stall for time was if the Bad Guys were pants-on-fire stupid.
then running like hell until we can find a way to kick some serious ass, maybe with a few surgical strikes in between.
Surgical strikes with . . . six cruisers. Against a star empire which has, presumably, wiped out many hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of 'Benefactor' cruisers. "Kicking serious ass" just isn't an option in this scenario. It would take us at least a century to get to the point where we could run like hell with enough humans that the colony the refugees establish won't immediately fall back into the Stone Age.
Research and build orbital defenses, exploit the Moon/Mars as a tactical position(likely just the moon, given the time and lack of knowledge regarding which direction relative to the Earth they'd advance from), and get to work on advanced travel technology to prepare for evacuation.
You're thinking far too small. When the Bad Guys turn up, they can presumably drop hundreds or thousands of ships into Sol System and come from every direction. And the first places they're going to hit are Earth and Mars; since Earth is obviously inhabited, and Mars is an obvious hiding spot for refugees from Earth (and has the advantage of being easy to hit, unlike refugee ships boosting to the outer edges of the system.)
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Purple wrote:
Junghalli wrote:Waste heat might be a problem but I imagine even megawatt light sources would be pretty dim over these kinds of distances. Even Pluto would outshine one by thousands of times at the same distance IIRC.
The enemy is likely to be far more advanced in terms of sensors than we are. It's only logical since they are far more advanced in terms of everything else. Hence what is a small blip to us might well be a huge flashing signal to them.
Unless they're using elf divination magic, Junghalli makes a good point. The Bad Guys sensors will be both aperture-limited, and limited by the resolution of the sensors sitting on the focal planes of the mirrors or lenses of their sensor telescopes. This is not a matter of more advanced technology, but simple electromagnetic physics. From a few billion kilometers away, one sub-pixel point of light looks pretty much like another one. Especially if our "ships" are hollowed-out asteroids (meaning their spectroscopic signature will look like . . . well, an asteroid.) It could take the Bad Guys a while to sort out which are spaceships, and which are Pluto-sized masses of rock and ice. Of course, this plan involves not moving, since once the Bad Guys complete their whole-sky-survey collection of telescopes on the ruins of Earth, they'll pick up our ships moving as soon as someone notices that Survey Object #423422 is no longer where orbital mechanics suggests it ought to be.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Simon_Jester »

Purple wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:Maybe a trace of wormhole activity is detectable but drive activity is not, not when the trail is years cold?
Does it have to be cold? The OP said that the aliens will be able to:
They inform us that in 1 - 3 years, the enemy will be able to reverse engineer the technology required to safely traverse wormholes and assault Earth directly.
Hence they will be at least as fast as we are if not faster due to superior ship building and engineers that actually understand the technology. And they will be able to track where we jumped off to. So they only need to find us once, and it is all over.
1) My impression was that aside from wormholes these ships had a secondary FTL drive; we would be using that to flee, not wormholes, unless we have an ability to close wormholes behind us.

2) The rest of your argument is riddled with unexamined assumptions.
-You assume that their ships are faster: "superior ship building."
-You ignore that the crews of the allied ships are still present and can operate the ships whether we understand how to work them or not.
-You assume that they can "track where we jumped to," that their sensors can detect either a ship running away at a year or more's maximum speed, or the traces that a ship's engines were active in the vicinity a year or more ago. Neither of those assumptions has to be true.

This is why I say "the trail is cold." Even given their ability to follow us through wormholes and our inability to simply CLOSE a wormhole (in which case we could just open a wormhole to some immensely distant place the enemy would not reach for millenia, shut it behind us, and rally defenses there), they still can't chase us if they do not know which way we went. The volume of space in which they must look for us will be huge, and their ships are behind: they would need to just happen to have a heavily armed searcher flying randomly in the direction we fled in, that just happened to catch us despite the head start.

Otherwise we are safe for many years (instead of just, say, a few years), and would have every chance of simply outdistancing the pursuit to the point at which they stop committing nigh-unlimited resources to hunting down That One Ship.

Obviously, this plan doesn't work if the ships don't have multi-year endurance without a refueling station; I wish you'd picked up on that flaw which I hadn't thought of (unexamined assumption on my part), instead of randomly generating unexamined assumptions of your own.

And besides, if they have a huge, galaxy spanning empire of death searching a small asteroid belt or other such areas suggested here that seem huge to us should be trivial to them.
Excuse me; you're completely missing a very large point. The point is that, regardless of whether the non-wormhole drive is sublight or faster than light, we have years of head start. To completely search an area that it takes years to cross, you would need many, many, many ships, and you would need to tie them up for years. It is not and cannot be a trivial operation unless you blindly and arbitrarily assume that the enemy has infinity ships and infinity resources. They don't; they just have more resources than you. There's a difference.
Or they can just let us fly off until we run out of spare parts, food, water and oxygen and die on our own.
Great! Option on building a refugee base and continuing the withdrawal in stages until we get out of their strategic reach and have breathing room to rebuild.

Their empire will not expand at the maximum speed of a ship travelling away from it. If we can fly far enough, we've permanently outdistanced them.
Beats collective suicide.
Does it? I do think that is a mater of opinion.
WHAT opinion? Your opinion that trying something expensive that might or might not work is a fate worse than death?

That's insane.
Junghalli wrote:Waste heat might be a problem but I imagine even megawatt light sources would be pretty dim over these kinds of distances. Even Pluto would outshine one by thousands of times at the same distance IIRC.
The enemy is likely to be far more advanced in terms of sensors than we are. It's only logical since they are far more advanced in terms of everything else. Hence what is a small blip to us might well be a huge flashing signal to them.
We could EASILY check this with our allies, who KNOW the limits of enemy technology, you know...
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Simon_Jester wrote:1) My impression was that aside from wormholes these ships had a secondary FTL drive; we would be using that to flee, not wormholes, unless we have an ability to close wormholes behind us.
The enemy does, nothing in the OP says anything about the Benefactors having one.
2) The rest of your argument is riddled with unexamined assumptions.
-You assume that their ships are faster: "superior ship building."
Because their ships have demonstrated the ability to destroy the Benefactor ships. And any of our ships would be built with 20th century technology and materials. Is there any reason to assume we would be on par with them?

The only ones that would be a match for their ships are the Benefactor ships, and these are damaged as said in the OP.
-You ignore that the crews of the allied ships are still present and can operate the ships whether we understand how to work them or not.
They are, and they can. But there is a limited amount of them to go around. And nothing in the OP says anything about there being engineers and scientists among them. Once it comes down to making spare parts or even new ships they would be as lost as a modern ship crew would.
-You assume that they can "track where we jumped to," that their sensors can detect either a ship running away at a year or more's maximum speed, or the traces that a ship's engines were active in the vicinity a year or more ago. Neither of those assumptions has to be true.
But they are likely to be true given the huge technological disparity we need to overcome and the absolutely massive scale of the project in question.
This is why I say "the trail is cold." Even given their ability to follow us through wormholes and our inability to simply CLOSE a wormhole (in which case we could just open a wormhole to some immensely distant place the enemy would not reach for millenia, shut it behind us, and rally defenses there), they still can't chase us if they do not know which way we went. The volume of space in which they must look for us will be huge, and their ships are behind: they would need to just happen to have a heavily armed searcher flying randomly in the direction we fled in, that just happened to catch us despite the head start.
Since we can't close a wormhole, and there was no talk about any FTL drive other than the wormhole drive on the Benefactor ships the only way we could pull off a safe escape is to go sublight. I wonder how far we would go?

For a dedicated opponent with possibly hundreds or thousands of ships to look for us escaping would be quite difficult.
Otherwise we are safe for many years (instead of just, say, a few years), and would have every chance of simply outdistancing the pursuit to the point at which they stop committing nigh-unlimited resources to hunting down That One Ship.
That only works in the 100 years scenario. In the 3 years one we simply can't get far enough.
Obviously, this plan doesn't work if the ships don't have multi-year endurance without a refueling station; I wish you'd picked up on that flaw which I hadn't thought of (unexamined assumption on my part), instead of randomly generating unexamined assumptions of your own.
Does it matter? Even if they do, feeding and supplying millions of people would be incredibly hard for the Benefactor ships that are most likely not designed for that sort of crew numbers.

And that is why I said, that the enemy would not even have to chase us. Just let us starve to death in the emptiness of space.
Excuse me; you're completely missing a very large point. The point is that, regardless of whether the non-wormhole drive is sublight or faster than light, we have years of head start. To completely search an area that it takes years to cross, you would need many, many, many ships, and you would need to tie them up for years. It is not and cannot be a trivial operation unless you blindly and arbitrarily assume that the enemy has infinity ships and infinity resources. They don't; they just have more resources than you. There's a difference.
Is there any reasons why they would not deploy thousands or at least hundreds of ships and tie them down for years?
Or just use an increadable amount of drones?
Great! Option on building a refugee base and continuing the withdrawal in stages until we get out of their strategic reach and have breathing room to rebuild.
What makes you assume that you would not be found rapidly after you stop? Again this only works in the 100 years scenario.
Their empire will not expand at the maximum speed of a ship travelling away from it. If we can fly far enough, we've permanently outdistanced them.
What makes you think they won't chase us to the end of the universe? What makes you think they would ever give up?
WHAT opinion? Your opinion that trying something expensive that might or might not work is a fate worse than death?
Worse? No.
About equal for most of humanity? Yes.
We could EASILY check this with our allies, who KNOW the limits of enemy technology, you know...
And what will knowing the limits help us exactly?

The chance are that we would not be able to hide for long.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:Unless they're using elf divination magic, Junghalli makes a good point. The Bad Guys sensors will be both aperture-limited, and limited by the resolution of the sensors sitting on the focal planes of the mirrors or lenses of their sensor telescopes. This is not a matter of more advanced technology, but simple electromagnetic physics. From a few billion kilometers away, one sub-pixel point of light looks pretty much like another one. Especially if our "ships" are hollowed-out asteroids (meaning their spectroscopic signature will look like . . . well, an asteroid.) It could take the Bad Guys a while to sort out which are spaceships, and which are Pluto-sized masses of rock and ice. Of course, this plan involves not moving, since once the Bad Guys complete their whole-sky-survey collection of telescopes on the ruins of Earth, they'll pick up our ships moving as soon as someone notices that Survey Object #423422 is no longer where orbital mechanics suggests it ought to be.
While this does have some merit you are forgetting that numbers play a part of it as well.

What might sound insanely difficult for us who have barely managed to get to the moon and put up one orbiting station would be much easier for an empire that can simply park hundreds of ships or millions of drones and use their combined sensors to map out the area much, much faster than we could.

However this does present one chance. Get to the asteroid belt and hide there. Presumably if we destroy all trace of escaping there they won't know they need to look for us and will not do so.

You actually presented a chance for humanity. :P
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Simon_Jester »

Purple wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:1) My impression was that aside from wormholes these ships had a secondary FTL drive; we would be using that to flee, not wormholes, unless we have an ability to close wormholes behind us.
The enemy does, nothing in the OP says anything about the Benefactors having one.
The OP also says nothing about the Benefactors not having one; if they were able to at least put up a significant fight against the enemy (even given that they eventually lost), they must have had something near technological parity. If the enemy had non-wormhole FTL and the Benefactors did not, that would be an enormous advantage on the tactical level.

There is no reason for you to assume that the Benefactors don't have such a drive, except to make your desired outcome of everyone committing suicide and abandoning even the slightest hope of survival as a species more appealing.

Which is insane.
Because their ships have demonstrated the ability to destroy the Benefactor ships. And any of our ships would be built with 20th century technology and materials. Is there any reason to assume we would be on par with them?

The only ones that would be a match for their ships are the Benefactor ships, and these are damaged as said in the OP.
The fact that I can't win a gunfight doesn't mean I can't match them in speed. There are many ways to lose to an enemy whose fleets aren't any faster than yours- numbers, superior organization, and superior weapons come to mind.

The object here is to put as large a refugee force as possible on the transports and flee to as great a distance as possible. From the Benefactors' point of view, they are piling a large number of primitives aboard their fleeing ships to act as a labor force to help them rebuild the nucleus of a civilization capable of resistance. From our point of view, it's a case of "save what we can."

And, again, the alternative is freaking mass suicide as a species, either voluntarily or at the hands of an enemy. Why on Earth would we NOT try to do this? Is there any point to your argument aside from "it must be pointless we are all doomed it is useless even to consider trying to think about fleeing!"
-You assume that they can "track where we jumped to," that their sensors can detect either a ship running away at a year or more's maximum speed, or the traces that a ship's engines were active in the vicinity a year or more ago. Neither of those assumptions has to be true.
But they are likely to be true given the huge technological disparity we need to overcome and the absolutely massive scale of the project in question.
...That does not follow. We have no reason to assume that an FTL non-wormhole drive can be tracked at all, let alone tracked after months of head start.
Since we can't close a wormhole, and there was no talk about any FTL drive other than the wormhole drive on the Benefactor ships the only way we could pull off a safe escape is to go sublight. I wonder how far we would go?
You are making stupid and unwarranted inferences from the OP. While I'll grant our being unable to close wormholes, I do not for a moment believe your claim that there is no non-wormhole FTL drive.
Excuse me; you're completely missing a very large point. The point is that, regardless of whether the non-wormhole drive is sublight or faster than light, we have years of head start. To completely search an area that it takes years to cross, you would need many, many, many ships, and you would need to tie them up for years. It is not and cannot be a trivial operation unless you blindly and arbitrarily assume that the enemy has infinity ships and infinity resources. They don't; they just have more resources than you. There's a difference.
Is there any reasons why they would not deploy thousands or at least hundreds of ships and tie them down for years?
Or just use an increadable amount of drones?
They could have not enough to go around. They could look at the cost benefit and decide that spending fifty trillion credits to hunt down That One Ship is stupid. They could still be busy fighting another unknown enemy- it's specified in the OP that it will take them considerable time to consolidate their gains and finish off their current enemies in any case, more than the one to three years it would take them to come through the wormhole. They could wind up fighting among themselves after the last major alien threat in the vicinity is destroyed, because that was all that held their political structure together.

Again, when the alternative is extinction, you find yourself looking for small chances of success.
Great! Option on building a refugee base and continuing the withdrawal in stages until we get out of their strategic reach and have breathing room to rebuild.
What makes you assume that you would not be found rapidly after you stop? Again this only works in the 100 years scenario.
In the worst imaginable case, where they send ships after me immediately on their emergence from the wormhole, and know exactly where I went, I have months of head start.

In a more relatistic case where they do not know exactly where to find me the moment they exit the wormhole, it will take them far more time than that: they must organize a large force and send it radially outwards, carefully sweeping to make sure we don't manage to hide from their detectors as they pass. This force will scale rapidly as a function of the volume they need to search. There is no obvious reason to assume they will be able to do this in a short period of time, and thus to find us "rapidly."
What makes you think they won't chase us to the end of the universe? What makes you think they would ever give up?
...They might be sane? They view all other sentient life as "filth and pestilence," does that mean they will expend infinity resources to destroy the last bits of filth?

And if so, why aren't they also sending their ships in ALL directions, not just in pursuit of us, looking for new intelligent life to destroy? Why would they bend the full resources of their civilization, or a significant fraction of it, to chasing down the last refugees of a defeated enemy?
We could EASILY check this with our allies, who KNOW the limits of enemy technology, you know...
And what will knowing the limits help us exactly?

The chance are that we would not be able to hide for long.
If we don't live in Nihilist-Purple-Land, knowing the limits of enemy technology helps. In Nihilist-Purple-Land, the enemy's limits are infinity and they can and will do whatever they please; in most other possible settings they aren't, and that tells us more about what options we have for hiding.
However this does present one chance. Get to the asteroid belt and hide there. Presumably if we destroy all trace of escaping there they won't know they need to look for us and will not do so.

You actually presented a chance for humanity. :P
Disappointed?
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Star Wars 888 »

Purple wrote:Does it matter?
What do we know about them:

They are much, much stronger than the "Benefactors" who are in turn so much more advanced than us that it is impossible for us to reverse engineer their tech.

Or in other words, I would just comity suicide. Since there is nothing humanity can do to stay alive.
Actually, in this scenario it does matter. How powerful are they? How durable is their armor? Can a massed nuclear strike do anything? The latter question (and the former question) is very, very important. Mass Effect level or maybe Star Trek level ship may be damaged by a massed nuclear strike, but a Star Wars level star destroyer that's shielded likely wouldn't.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Well, odds are that if a civilization has the ability to generate enough energy to perform the feats that it does, they're also capable of throwing it at each other. Thus, at war, they would all have some way of dealing with having it thrown at them, whether that's by having passive defenses like shielding or incredible materials, or simply being able to absorb the losses and keep coming.

Logically, whatever the case, our nukes would be like firecrackers compared to whatever they're used to dishing out and taking.. :(
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Star Wars 888 »

Cykeisme wrote:Well, odds are that if a civilization has the ability to generate enough energy to perform the feats that it does, they're also capable of throwing it at each other. Thus, at war, they would all have some way of dealing with having it thrown at them, whether that's by having passive defenses like shielding or incredible materials, or simply being able to absorb the losses and keep coming.

Logically, whatever the case, our nukes would be like firecrackers compared to whatever they're used to dishing out and taking.. :(
That's a rather large assumption. Irrc I'm not sure if it's even possible to make a practical armor that can withstand a massed nuclear strike and it's afteraffects such as radiation and EMP. These benefactors probably have some sort of mass replication technology that we can use to mass produce nuclear warheads and blast the invasion force.

Also, is there any way to close the wormhole? Because that's one of our only chances in stopping an all out invasion force.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Junghalli »

Purple wrote:So they only need to find us once, and it is all over.
Only if we're stupid, or can only build one escape ark, or send them in one direction. What's stopping us from sending lots of arks off in lots of different directions, with each one ignorant of where the others are going? Not only would this greatly increase our chances of one of them getting away, it would greatly multiply the amount of effort the enemy would need to expend to have a decent shot of tracking us down.
And besides, if they have a huge, galaxy spanning empire of death searching a small asteroid belt or other such areas suggested here that seem huge to us should be trivial to them.
Oort Cloud = small?

The Oort Cloud's volume could contain a billion copies of our solar system up to the orbit of Pluto. Granted 100 years lead time probably isn't enough to get out that far, but even the scattered disk could enclose our entire solar system several times over. Granted if we assume the Enemy is realistically advanced for an interstellar civilization (as opposed to space opera standard where a respectable "star empire" is basically our planetary civilization X an order of magnitude or three) they could probably throw some pretty scary amounts of resources at a problem like this, but we're not talking about some piddly little debris field here.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:Unless they're using elf divination magic, Junghalli makes a good point. The Bad Guys sensors will be both aperture-limited, and limited by the resolution of the sensors sitting on the focal planes of the mirrors or lenses of their sensor telescopes. This is not a matter of more advanced technology, but simple electromagnetic physics. From a few billion kilometers away, one sub-pixel point of light looks pretty much like another one. Especially if our "ships" are hollowed-out asteroids (meaning their spectroscopic signature will look like . . . well, an asteroid.)
Another point if you're trying to hide energy emissions: a reflective object's brightness will depend on its surface composition. Maybe we could camouflage our emissions so that even if the Enemy notices that Oort Cloud Comet 9,917,486 is bright it just looks like it has a more reflective than average surface, instead of its actively radiating energy.

After all, if your habitat is a 10 km hollowed out comet and your waste heat radiates evenly over its surface, and you radiate 1 megawatt of waste heat, your comet is only about .003 joules/m^2 brighter than it should be.

Another possibility would be to radiate all our waste heat away from Sol, perhaps in small cones, which would greatly increase the difficulty for the Enemy. They would probably have to calculate how far we could have gone, then surround that area with a dense sensor net. A highly advanced civilization might be able to do that though, I remember in the sensors for space warships thread Xeriar calculated that disassembling a single largish asteroid might let you build a relatively dense sensor net sphere something like a light year across.

It would be terrific if we could modify ourselves into something that could survive on very little energy, e.g. upload ourselves into Diaspora style polises which we could then run at a small fraction of normal human clock speed, potentially allowing us to support vast (post)human populations with very little energy emission. Of course whether that would be feasible in 100 years is an open question.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Purple »

Simon_Jester wrote:The OP also says nothing about the Benefactors not having one; if they were able to at least put up a significant fight against the enemy (even given that they eventually lost), they must have had something near technological parity. If the enemy had non-wormhole FTL and the Benefactors did not, that would be an enormous advantage on the tactical level.
Where in the OP does it say: "The Benefactors also have a non wormhole FTL drive."

Find me one instance of this and I will concede the point.
If you can not find evidence to collaborate it, than you concede. It's as simple as that.



If something is not shown to exist, it does not exist. And so far the only thing we have going for it is your speculations.
The fact that I can't win a gunfight doesn't mean I can't match them in speed. There are many ways to lose to an enemy whose fleets aren't any faster than yours- numbers, superior organization, and superior weapons come to mind.
No, the fact that we are centuries if not millenia behind them in tech, as evidenced by the fact that we can't reverse engineer their weapon. Coupled with the fact that the Earth today simply does not have the infrastructure required, or the capability to build up a huge infrastructure to effectively repair the ships in questions or make new ones does.

And that is not even starting on the fact that the Benefactors were no match for the enemy in the first place or they would have won. So even if we could get their ships up to top level and make more of them for our self we would still remain inferior to the enemy.
The object here is to put as large a refugee force as possible on the transports and flee to as great a distance as possible. From the Benefactors' point of view, they are piling a large number of primitives aboard their fleeing ships to act as a labor force to help them rebuild the nucleus of a civilization capable of resistance. From our point of view, it's a case of "save what we can."
Exactly, and since the "what we can" is most likely less than 1% of the world's population how exactly is that different from mass suicide?
And, again, the alternative is freaking mass suicide as a species, either voluntarily or at the hands of an enemy. Why on Earth would we NOT try to do this? Is there any point to your argument aside from "it must be pointless we are all doomed it is useless even to consider trying to think about fleeing!"
We can try, but we can't succeed.
...That does not follow. We have no reason to assume that an FTL non-wormhole drive can be tracked at all, let alone tracked after months of head start.
Refer to my 1st point.
You are making stupid and unwarranted inferences from the OP. While I'll grant our being unable to close wormholes, I do not for a moment believe your claim that there is no non-wormhole FTL drive.
Refer to my 1st point.
They could have not enough to go around. They could look at the cost benefit and decide that spending fifty trillion credits to hunt down That One Ship is stupid. They could still be busy fighting another unknown enemy- it's specified in the OP that it will take them considerable time to consolidate their gains and finish off their current enemies in any case, more than the one to three years it would take them to come through the wormhole. They could wind up fighting among themselves after the last major alien threat in the vicinity is destroyed, because that was all that held their political structure together.
Good points actually. Yes, if there are distractions we might stand a chance. But the problem with that line of reasoning is that you relly on a small chance to colaborate your point.

And if your collaborating evidence is circumstantial at best and plain wishful thinking in the worst case you don't really have a case.
In the worst imaginable case, where they send ships after me immediately on their emergence from the wormhole, and know exactly where I went, I have months of head start.
That you make sound like so much more than it actually would be.
In a more relatistic case where they do not know exactly where to find me the moment they exit the wormhole, it will take them far more time than that: they must organize a large force and send it radially outwards, carefully sweeping to make sure we don't manage to hide from their detectors as they pass. This force will scale rapidly as a function of the volume they need to search. There is no obvious reason to assume they will be able to do this in a short period of time, and thus to find us "rapidly."
There is, since you should refer to my 1st point.
And if we can build one space station, what is stopping them from building sensor drones and linking them up to a command ship with a supercomputer or something?
...They might be sane? They view all other sentient life as "filth and pestilence," does that mean they will expend infinity resources to destroy the last bits of filth?
Well, yes. This is a trick question right?
And if so, why aren't they also sending their ships in ALL directions, not just in pursuit of us, looking for new intelligent life to destroy? Why would they bend the full resources of their civilization, or a significant fraction of it, to chasing down the last refugees of a defeated enemy?
One at a time. If they try and destroy everything at once they would get a lot of people like us trying to escape and their forces would be dispersed enough to actually allow this to happen.

Think about it. They might be evil but I don't think the OP said they were stupid.
If we don't live in Nihilist-Purple-Land, knowing the limits of enemy technology helps. In Nihilist-Purple-Land, the enemy's limits are infinity and they can and will do whatever they please; in most other possible settings they aren't, and that tells us more about what options we have for hiding.
But what are the options really? This section is quite vague in the OP.
But the point I am making is that they will have encountered many races like us. And would have seen a lot of attempts.
I can't provide any evidence for this but I doubt we could come up with something they have not already seen done.
Disappointed?
Guilty as charged there.
Star Wars 888 wrote:Actually, in this scenario it does matter. How powerful are they? How durable is their armor? Can a massed nuclear strike do anything?
and
Star Wars 888 wrote:That's a rather large assumption. Irrc I'm not sure if it's even possible to make a practical armor that can withstand a massed nuclear strike and it's afteraffects such as radiation and EMP. These benefactors probably have some sort of mass replication technology that we can use to mass produce nuclear warheads and blast the invasion force.

Also, is there any way to close the wormhole? Because that's one of our only chances in stopping an all out invasion force.
The OP said:
The enemy uses thick armor plating and massive firepower.
Emphasis mine.
So it is not some magical wank shield but thick armor. And if thick armor can defeat Benefactor weapons it is likely to defeat anything we can produce.

And while I will admit that I am no physics major. I think that I am not wrong when I say that:
Under the assumption that:
Nuke = Rock,
Benefactor weapon = Bullet,
enemy armor = armor

If Armor beats Bullet and Bullet is stronger than rock => Armor beats rock

Junghalli wrote:Only if we're stupid, or can only build one escape ark, or send them in one direction. What's stopping us from sending lots of arks off in lots of different directions, with each one ignorant of where the others are going? Not only would this greatly increase our chances of one of them getting away, it would greatly multiply the amount of effort the enemy would need to expend to have a decent shot of tracking us down.
And it would also decrease the number of people in one place, ruin genetic diversity and cause all sorts of problems.
Oort Cloud = small?
* Compared to the entire galaxy, yes.
The Oort Cloud's volume could contain a billion copies of our solar system up to the orbit of Pluto. Granted 100 years lead time probably isn't enough to get out that far, but even the scattered disk could enclose our entire solar system several times over. Granted if we assume the Enemy is realistically advanced for an interstellar civilization (as opposed to space opera standard where a respectable "star empire" is basically our planetary civilization X an order of magnitude or three) they could probably throw some pretty scary amounts of resources at a problem like this, but we're not talking about some piddly little debris field here.
My point exatcly, combined to *.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:Another point if you're trying to hide energy emissions: a reflective object's brightness will depend on its surface composition. Maybe we could camouflage our emissions so that even if the Enemy notices that Oort Cloud Comet 9,917,486 is bright it just looks like it has a more reflective than average surface, instead of its actively radiating energy.

After all, if your habitat is a 10 km hollowed out comet and your waste heat radiates evenly over its surface, and you radiate 1 megawatt of waste heat, your comet is only about .003 joules/m^2 brighter than it should be.

Another possibility would be to radiate all our waste heat away from Sol, perhaps in small cones, which would greatly increase the difficulty for the Enemy. They would probably have to calculate how far we could have gone, then surround that area with a dense sensor net. A highly advanced civilization might be able to do that though, I remember in the sensors for space warships thread Xeriar calculated that disassembling a single largish asteroid might let you build a relatively dense sensor net sphere something like a light year across.
Emphasis mine.
I don't know how advanced the civilization we are talking about is. But considering it is fighting a pan galactic war it is not going to be Star Trek levels.

It would be terrific if we could modify ourselves into something that could survive on very little energy, e.g. upload ourselves into Diaspora style polises which we could then run at a small fraction of normal human clock speed, potentially allowing us to support vast (post)human populations with very little energy emission. Of course whether that would be feasible in 100 years is an open question.
Er... or we could use elf magic to escape. Such solutions are even more far fetched than running away.


Another thing that must be noted is that the initial event would prove catastrophic for the world as we know it.
As soon as the information is leaked to the public, and it would be leaked. And the public finds out that the government is selecting 1% of the population and condemning the rest to genocide there would be panic, chaos and all sorts of things happening.

Even if it is for the greater good of mankind, I somehow doubt the 99% of the population would not act irrationally and insanely.
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
Star Wars 888
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Star Wars 888 »

The OP doesn't state that the alien armor can defeat Benefactor weapons. For all we know space combat could be a mostly one hit one kill type of battle, with the thick armor plating there to deflect interstellar debris, glance hits from weapons and stuff such as radiation and shrapnel. Maybe the space ships rely mostly on evading hits and using laser defense systems and other countermeasures. Therefore, if the Benefactor ship can be repaired, the Benefactor ship can keep on distracting the dreadnought with a huge number of relatively weak but a large amount of and fast attacks, and then a huge payload of tens of thousands of nuclear warheads comes out of Earth and blows the dreadnought up.

However, against a full fledged invasion force, the only reasonable hope based on this scenario would be to somehow close or block the wormhole.
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Purple
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Purple »

Star Wars 888 wrote:The OP doesn't state that the alien armor can defeat Benefactor weapons. For all we know space combat could be a mostly one hit one kill type of battle, with the thick armor plating there to deflect interstellar debris, glance hits from weapons and stuff such as radiation and shrapnel. Maybe the space ships rely mostly on evading hits and using laser defense systems and other countermeasures.
That is true. But even so, why would they make weapons so advanced and powerful if they were not needed?

And while I can not do anything but concede that you are right about that matter. I think it would be wise not to plan ones course of action on the notion that the Benefactors made their weapons uber overkill for giggles.
Therefore, if the Benefactor ship can be repaired, the Benefactor ship can keep on distracting the dreadnought with a huge number of relatively weak but a large amount of and fast attacks, and then a huge payload of tens of thousands of nuclear warheads comes out of Earth and blows the dreadnought up.
That is if the Benefactor ship is willing to serve as a meat shield for us. And that is quite a large IF.
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Junghalli »

Purple wrote:And it would also decrease the number of people in one place, ruin genetic diversity and cause all sorts of problems.
Maybe in the near term scenario. In the far term scenario the solar system should offer plenty of fairly resource-rich bodies of mountain size, which could be hollowed out and converted into the largest spacecraft that could possibly fit through the wormholes, or simply sent into wide orbits that take them out into the solar system's Oort Cloud. The limits on construction of such craft would be sophisticated components like engines and electronics and our ability to ship them out into space, not the bulk of the ship itself, which would be natural rock and ice. Such craft could concievably use very simple engines, for example large mirrors that would concentrate sunlight onto a small area of ice, heating it up and creating thrust. Accelerations could be kept gentle so the spacecraft would require little or no structural reinforcement; a few hundredths of 1 G could put you on a long period comet-like orbit in a matter of months. Such arks would be slow, of course, but the idea is either to use the wormholes to get away or to blend in with natural long period comets (or a combination of both), not to escape using conventional rocketry and sheer speed.

If you're going with this approach, creating a gigantic ship should not be enormously more difficult than creating small one. Most of the bulk mass of the ship is already in space and in one place, you just have to bring in a relatively small mass of sophisticated components, and hollow out and vacuum-seal the body.

This would of course require a large space program, but with 100 years of lead time and help from an advanced alien civilization that seems to have already had one I think that would probably be feasible.
I don't know how advanced the civilization we are talking about is. But considering it is fighting a pan galactic war it is not going to be Star Trek levels.
I don't remember anything about a "pan galactic" war in the OP, all we know is they apparently extend over multiple star systems. It would be quite possible to do that without having humongous resources in a universe where relatively easy magic FTL is possible. They would have access to humongous resources as a matter of course, naturally, but if they didn't have borderline effective postscarcity technology or a huge population their production is still going to be relatively sharply limited by things like extraction rate and available skilled labor pool. It is a distinct possibility that this is the case.

From what I can remember of the OP, if they were Star Trek-like that would fit quite well with it. :wink:
Er... or we could use elf magic to escape. Such solutions are even more far fetched than running away.
Not necessarily. We have access to the knowledge of an advanced alien civilization and realistically I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if uploading was easier than starships. I don't remember the OP saying anything about it either way.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Darth Nostril »

Junghalli wrote: Only if we're stupid, or can only build one escape ark, or send them in one direction. What's stopping us from sending lots of arks off in lots of different directions, with each one ignorant of where the others are going? Not only would this greatly increase our chances of one of them getting away, it would greatly multiply the amount of effort the enemy would need to expend to have a decent shot of tracking us down.
A further addition to this idea, have the Benefactor mothership tow a bunch of arks through a wormhole and disperse them from there, then take another group through to another star system, rinse and repeat until all arks are safely away scattered across a significant portion of the galaxy.
Then make a lot of jumps from Earth to random systems, as many as possible. The enemy can track wormholes so let's give them an absolute shitload of false trails that they'll be forced to run down if they want to have any hope of finding our (hugely scattered) ark fleet.
Each ark carries the best and brightest of humanity, those best able to rebuild our civilization, with a disproportionately high ratio of female to male.
Everyone else who has to stay behind contributes sperm and ova which are frozen and randomly distributed across the ark fleet for the sake of genetic diversity, increasing our chances of racial survival.
Razor One wrote: Because the enemy are busy occupying former Benefactor territory and fighting off their surviving allies (to say nothing of stretched supply lines) the short term retaliation is likely to be relatively light with one of the Dreadnought class vessels coming through to deliver the beatdown.
Even at a worst case scenario of say three Dreadnoughts coming through it still means the enemy will not be commiting much in the way of resources to hunting down the fleeing ships of a primitive (in their eyes) race, plus they have no idea just how many ships we got away.
By the time they have consolidated their new holdings, secured themselves against attacks from the surviving allies and come after us we'll have had a fair bit of time to increase the distance, and thus the search radius, that they will have to scour.

Razor One this is an interesting scenario but the OP need fleshing out, you say we understand how their weapons work but can't replicate them due to a lack of the necessary elements but how does this translate to the rest of their technology? Can we recreate their non-FTL drive techology? Can we recreate their armour and repair the mothership? The way you've written that sentence implies that although weapons are out we can manage most of the rest of their materials, excluding wormhole drives.
Who is onboard the vessels of the Benefactor fleet, is it just the crews and they're using the technical databases on their ships to try to give us their technology or did they scoop up their surviving best and brightest before hightailing out to the backwaters of the western spiral arm of the galaxy?
Inquiring minds need more to work with.
So I stare wistfully at the Lightning for a couple of minutes. Two missiles, sharply raked razor-thin wings, a huge, pregnant belly full of fuel, and the two screamingly powerful engines that once rammed it from a cold start to a thousand miles per hour in under a minute. Life would be so much easier if our adverseries could be dealt with by supersonic death on wings - but alas, Human resources aren't so easily defeated.

Imperial Battleship, halt the flow of time!

My weird shit NSFW
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Junghalli »

I'd also add some more questions:

1) What is the extent of the Enemy's holdings?
2) What is the Enemy's population?
3) Does the Enemy have Von Neumann machines?
4A) How many ships does the Enemy fleet have, how fast can they replace them, and how big are they?
4B) Do those ships require rare materials or exceptionally difficult construction? If so, how would that scale to something that was easy to build, like say a communications sattelite, in terms of tons per year?
5) What is the biggest telescope the Enemy can build?
Darth Nostril wrote:A further addition to this idea, have the Benefactor mothership tow a bunch of arks through a wormhole and disperse them from there, then take another group through to another star system, rinse and repeat until all arks are safely away scattered across a significant portion of the galaxy.
Maybe drop a couple of the arks off in young planet-forming disks around very young stars. Let the Enemy have fun trying to sort through all the random debris that would probably be flying around in that kind of environment. Another good idea might be to preferentially target solar systems with exceptionally massive Kuiper Belts (Tau Ceti for instance may have a Kuiper Belt 10X as massive as ours based on particulate observations). Let them have fun sorting through as huge a number of potential targets as possible.
Then make a lot of jumps from Earth to random systems, as many as possible. The enemy can track wormholes so let's give them an absolute shitload of false trails that they'll be forced to run down if they want to have any hope of finding our (hugely scattered) ark fleet.
Also an excellent idea.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Razor One »

Razor One this is an interesting scenario but the OP need fleshing out, you say we understand how their weapons work but can't replicate them due to a lack of the necessary elements but how does this translate to the rest of their technology?
Shields and Thrusters are electrically driven, so I'd say it's a matter of power generation. Fusion reactors would be necessary to adequately power most of their technology sans of course weapons which as stated require an exotic substance that cannot be reproduced on Earth without some major teching up and infrastructure.
Can we recreate their non-FTL drive techology?
Yes. If not the Benefactors are willing to manufacture drives on our behalf until we figure it out (more detail below).
Can we recreate their armour and repair the mothership? The way you've written that sentence implies that although weapons are out we can manage most of the rest of their materials, excluding wormhole drives.
That was my intention. At the very least we can provide some of the elements to them that would require extensive mining.

Wormholes are very tricky though. We could probably understand the theory given time for our scientific community to absorb it and a convenient nearby wormhole to study. The materials and equipment necessary to safely travel through the wormhole however require significant technical knowledge to build and maintain. This works in our favour as the Benefactor vessel will have the necessary brains trust to repair or rebuild such a device in the event it gets damaged.

That said, it is possible to travel through a wormhole without the necessary equipment. Just don't count on having your internal organs remaining internal by the time you get to the end of the ride.
Who is onboard the vessels of the Benefactor fleet, is it just the crews and they're using the technical databases on their ships to try to give us their technology or did they scoop up their surviving best and brightest before hightailing out to the backwaters of the western spiral arm of the galaxy?
Inquiring minds need more to work with.
It slipped my mind to include this information. Here's what my notes say.

Mothership Crew: ~38,000 (55,000 full complement, casualties sustained in battle).
Support Staff on Mothership: ~24,000 (Maintenance, repair crews, service staff, etc)
Soldiers, Pilots: ~11,500
Officers: ~1800
Science Personnel: ~700

With regards to their fighters, they have 8 squadrons comprising 24 wings themselves comprised of 24 fighters for a total of 4608 one-man fighters capable of being dispatched at once with four squadrons worth of pilots (2304) on standby for rest and relief purposes.

The Support Staff figure contains its own organisational structures, department heads, foremen, overseers etc. that keep the maintenance and manufacturing capabilities of the Mothership in shape.

The science personnel are included on any typical Mothership. Motherships were built and designed to be largely autonomous, capable of sustaining long range patrol and deep strikes into enemy territory, as well as providing firepower and support for shorter ranged vessels such as Cruisers and Benefactor Dreadnought-Equivalents.

To this end, the Mothership contains manufacturing and production facilities necessary to reproduce most of their technology and spare parts. The primary problem facing this particular Benefactor Mothership is ammunition, which requires advanced planetary infrastructure and a decent respite. Prior to their entry into the Wormhole they were chased mercilessly by the Enemy, the Wormhole being their one safe point. For now.

Getting back on track, a science staff is usually included on any Mothership class vessel for obvious reasons and is generally well rounded enough to handle most anything they come across.

1) What is the extent of the Enemy's holdings?
Their "Home Systems" comprise a small fraction, approximately six percent, of the galaxy. This is what I would think are areas that are well settled by them, secured against attack and of course devoid of any rival sentient species due to extermination.

A further six percent is within what could be called a "Zone of Exclusion", a region of space where they've effectively glassed worlds containing sentient species where they maintain outposts and fledgling colonies.

A further six percent comprises the territories once controlled by the Benefactors and their allies. Currently, half this area has been glassed, invaded or garrisoned, the remaining half is still under control of the Benefactors allies whom are doing their best to give the enemy as hard a time as possible.

2) What is the Enemy's population?
I'll be honest here and say that I couldn't begin to fathom their population. With the amount of area they control I'd venture a guess of trillions at least... and I'm probably off by an order of magnitude or three given the volumes I've conjectured above.

3) Does the Enemy have Von Neumann machines?
They prefer to do their killing themselves, so I'd say no, though the technology wouldn't be completely outside their consideration if they felt the need for it. Their prime attribute, beyond abject xenocidal mania, is arrogance. If they had any degree of consideration towards Neumann machines, they'd think them crude and unworthy at best.

4A) How many ships does the Enemy fleet have, how fast can they replace them, and how big are they?
Something I couldn't begin to guess at myself... enough to cover their areas, burn out their exclusion zone and facilitate an invasion of Benefactor territory.

In relative terms, the Enemy has technological parity with the Benefactors (Regular non-wormhole FTL drives included). The enemy won their war by building up a massive military numerical advantage. The Benefactors estimate that at the onset of the war the Enemy outnumbered their forces ten to one.

In terms of size, Benefactor Motherships range 10 Km long by 4 Km wide, with fighter bays, shielding, armour and big guns that have a limited amount of ammunition. Cruisers are of similar proportion and configuration, 1 Km long by 400 Meters wide. Cruisers can re-arm and re-fuel fighters but have no hangars or bays where they can be maintained properly.

Enemy Dreadnoughts average twice as large with corresponding firepower and crew. Most Enemy vessels range smaller, with Dreadnoughts tipping the top of the scale for size. Their thick armour and heavy armament make them slow moving juggernauts.

Benefactors utilised finesse and precision strikes to bring them down. The usual tactic is that, once a chink in Enemy armour appears, hit it with everything you have until you either irradiate the crew or cause a catastrophic chain reaction.

As to how quickly the Enemy can replace their losses... they're currently defending a massive area, patrolling another massive area and are still fighting over yet another massive area. Even with their massive numbers I'd say that they're stretching themselves a bit thin. If, for example, an equally powerful enemy were to launch an attack now, they'd be forced to pull back most of their forces to adequately defend their homeworlds. Their economy is definitely on a war footing and has been for some time though with their recent conquests that may have to change once they've secured their new territories.

4B) Do those ships require rare materials or exceptionally difficult construction? If so, how would that scale to something that was easy to build, like say a communications sattelite, in terms of tons per year?
Bit more detail than what I'm privy to... I'd have to say that their hull armour is almost certainly a difficult to produce alloy for our current metallurgical knowledge... if they indeed use metals at all (Composite armour perhaps?).

I'd say the more difficult challenge would be reproducing things such as engines and shields. If you can manufacture shields then you generally don't need to make your ships ultra-tough unless you expect for your shields to go down. Until our materials science catches up and as long as we can reproduce their shield technology (or have the benefactors use their fabrication equipment to manufacture them for us until we can) I think we can afford to have any vessels we build, whatever their purpose, made out of current generation materials.

5) What is the biggest telescope the Enemy can build?
Fairly large, though I imagine such telescopes would be space based. I'd have to picture interferometers the size of solar systems at least... if they can exist on such a scale of course... possibly even larger.

The way I see it the Enemy didn't get to be top dog by being dumb and uninterested in the universe. They're cunning, curious and hate all intelligent alien life. I would have used the word "Xenophobic" but that implies a level of fear that does not exist.

A little further background information.

The Benefactors have been developing wormhole technology for some time but only recently did it become viable in the sense that they figured out how to get their test pilots back as more than vaguely organic goo.

The Benefactors managed to effectively bluff the Enemy for about a decade or so with the threat of "Wormhole Weapons". Think of it as akin to the US being able to threaten the Soviet Union with nukes before they obtained them. In the meantime, they tried to their best to unite as many species in their sector behind a mutual defence pact. While many did sign on, mutual distrust and prejudice prevented the cohesion necessary to sufficiently rebuff the Enemy until they had managed to establish significant forward positions. While the Alliance did eventually stabilise it came too late to save the Benefactors main worlds.

The Benefactors planned to use wormholes in the event of a war to deliver fleets past enemy blockades and sensor nets, swallow particularly troublesome worlds and drop them into interstellar space or dump them into the interior of stars... effectively a transport system and a weapon of mass destruction all rolled up into one.

Unfortunately, much like Germany's V2 programme, it became a viable weapon too late in the war to change the outcome. It did however lengthen the war by several years as the Enemy was forced to redeploy some of its forces towards self defence while the Benefactor fleets, what remained of them, managed to carve some deep wounds into the Enemy.

This has effectively bought some time for their Allies. Though they don't possess wormhole drives themselves those that remain are fighting for their survival and are willing to throw out old hatreds and prejudices... at least for now.

A few clarifications.

Benefactor technology has parity with Enemy technology. The superior numbers of the enemy and lack of cohesion in their alliance is what did them in.

The enemy is currently spread thin and trying to consolidate their territory. If the 1 - 3 year assault fails, the travel time in the century scenario is assumed to be a best case retaliatory scenario barring wormhole travel (assuming it's been either closed or effectively locked down with conventional forces) with the ship / fleet being dispatched immediately and assuming they encounter no empires between us and them willing to bar their way. I should have made that clarification in the OP and didn't think that through. I'll be honest and say that I didn't do the homework there.

In the case of a siege, the Enemy is willing to take steps to eliminate us while preserving what they can of the ecosystem. They tend to value life bearing worlds if not the intelligent species that inhabit them.

I'd like to apologise for some of the more vague points in my OP, in all honesty I should have drafted it a few more times before posting. That being said, some points came up during the discussion which I had not honestly considered so I guess those flaws would still have been there regardless.

One possibility to consider in the vein of running... what about retreat into the Earth? If Benefactor armour is capable of withstanding the forces involved then conditions in the mantle shouldn't be too difficult for them. I'll admit that getting down there is going to be tough as hell but once there you've got a significant meat shield in terms of the Earth's crust, plenty of geothermal energy and nigh unlimited metal resources. If they try to bake the Earth's crust off to get to you, they lose the biosphere they value, if they come down to get you they're going to have a significant bottleneck... and that's assuming they know you're there in the first place. I don't see their sensors as capable of penetrating hundreds of miles of rock and magma and I don't see anyone remaining on the surface (assuming only a vanishingly small fraction can make it down of course) being willing to give up your location after we've managed to cover our tracks. Going underground, quite literally, may be a viable option if it's absolutely impossible to win in the near term.

I apologise for the length of this post but I wanted to get things out in a bit of detail. I've made a few educated guesses and a few not-so educated guesses. If something I've mentioned is outright impossible or completely off, by all means, call me out on it.
Tho' much is taken, much abides; and though
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.


~Tennyson


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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Simon_Jester »

Razor One, I see that you have a great deal of information about this scenario that you didn't share at first. Let me ask you the following questions, to help clarify my ongoing troubles with Purple.

Can wormholes be closed?

If so, the obvious solution is to simply close the wormhole the Benefactors fled through. In a hundred years, we still won't be able to fight the enemy, but we should at least have time to build a larger fleet to run away with.

However, you do not seem to be thinking along those lines, so we have to consider another question:

Do our allies, have a form of faster than light drive which does not rely on wormholes?

From the background you give, I would say "yes," because wormholes are a recent invention and there were large interstellar civilizations around before wormhole technology emerged. In this case, I was correct in inferring that the Benefactors have some other form of FTL drive.

In that case, my plan of loading as many refugees as possible on the Benefactor ships, including any cargo vessels they brought along, and simply fleeing via conventional FTL drive, should work. In a year or more of travel, we really ought to be able to outdistance enemy pursuit, simply because the enemy will arrive in Sol system with no idea where we went. Given the scale of the alien empires in this scenario, I would expect FTL drives with speeds measured in thousands of times the speed of light, simply so that people can fly from one side of their own country to the other in a year or so. Otherwise the war between the Benefactors and the enemy would have taken much longer.

Therefore, by the time the enemy manages to make it through the wormhole to Earth, the refugee fleet can have run thousands of light years in any direction it pleases, and continue to run for as long as the engines hold out. This gives us an opportunity to escape to a place the enemy will not reach for many centuries, and try to rally resistance against them once more.

I think that this is the best plan, even though it does not save Earth, because in the given scenario Earth cannot be saved. The enemy has too many resources too close to it. "Hiding under the crust" is a much worse idea, because:

1) Even if the Benefactor ships won't melt or be crushed in conditions inside the Earth's mantle, the interiors will gradually heat up to temperatures hot enough to melt rock, killing anyone inside and damaging any sensitive systems inside.

2) This will not save human civilization, any more than fleeing Earth would.

3) What if the enemy leaves monitoring stations in the solar system after taking out the native civilization on Earth? What if they move in with colony ships? There is no guarantee that even if we could somehow hide assets under the Earth's crust, that we could ever safely remove those assets and start operating freely on the surface again.
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Cykeisme
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Star Wars 888 wrote:
Cykeisme wrote:Well, odds are that if a civilization has the ability to generate enough energy to perform the feats that it does, they're also capable of throwing it at each other. Thus, at war, they would all have some way of dealing with having it thrown at them, whether that's by having passive defenses like shielding or incredible materials, or simply being able to absorb the losses and keep coming.

Logically, whatever the case, our nukes would be like firecrackers compared to whatever they're used to dishing out and taking.. :(
That's a rather large assumption. Irrc I'm not sure if it's even possible to make a practical armor that can withstand a massed nuclear strike and it's afteraffects such as radiation and EMP. These benefactors probably have some sort of mass replication technology that we can use to mass produce nuclear warheads and blast the invasion force.
I'm really lousy at logical arguments, tell me what my assumptions were again?

I'm saying that they have, one way or another, dealt with incredible firepower orders of magnitude above ours. They've faced great firepower before, they weren't defeated by it. They won't be defeated by lesser firepower now.
They weren't defeated by the benefactor race.

By the way, since you don't know, nukes will not generate an EMP in outer space. There's no atmosphere to get ionized and moved around. There is also no shockwave (static and dynamic overpressure waves). You only have a pulse of hard radiation, and that's emitted in all directions, which is very inefficient against hard targets. Thus, we would also need to design and produce guided space rockets that are capable of out-accelerating their ships in order to catch them (lets pretend they don't have point defenses, which they probably will) and make direct impacts with their ships to get contact detonation to get just 50% efficiency of energy dumped into the target, and even at 100%, it will in all probability be woefully, pathetically insufficient.

Meanwhile, did you proceed to say the benefactors "probably have some sort of mass replication technology?" Jeebus, who's making the large assumptions here?
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Hmm...did anybody think of another possibility?

Aliens exist. Interstellar empires exist.

We should go out and start looking for allies. We could really use the help of a bunch of Proteans...
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Razor One wrote:Their "Home Systems" comprise a small fraction, approximately six percent, of the galaxy. This is what I would think are areas that are well settled by them, secured against attack and of course devoid of any rival sentient species due to extermination.
This needs more clarification:

1) Am I correct in taking this to mean 6% of the volume of the galaxy's disk (I calculate a circle somewhat over 10,000 light year radius)?

2) Does the Enemy exploit all the solar systems in this volume or only a fraction of the total? If so, what fraction?

3) How extensively does the Enemy exploit their solar systems? Are we talking a well-developed solar system being one filled with vast numbers of habitats supporting untold trillions here? Or is it more like soft SF where they mostly just live off the thin life scum and crust of habitable planets?
A further six percent is within what could be called a "Zone of Exclusion", a region of space where they've effectively glassed worlds containing sentient species where they maintain outposts and fledgling colonies.
Does 6% again refer to percentage of the volume of the galaxy's disk? So the radius of the Zone of Exclusion is a little more than 1.4 times the radius of the Zone of Settlement?
A further six percent comprises the territories once controlled by the Benefactors and their allies. Currently, half this area has been glassed, invaded or garrisoned, the remaining half is still under control of the Benefactors allies whom are doing their best to give the enemy as hard a time as possible.
Repeat questions 1-3 for the Benefactors.
I'll be honest here and say that I couldn't begin to fathom their population. With the amount of area they control I'd venture a guess of trillions at least... and I'm probably off by an order of magnitude or three given the volumes I've conjectured above.
Assuming they have settled 6% of the volume of the galaxy's disk at 1000 trillion people (3 orders of magnitude above "trillions") I get an average of ~80,000 people per solar system. This suggests we're probably talking about typical space opera population densities (assuming most of their civilization is on habitable planets and those average 1 per 10,000 stars that's an average of 800 million per planet, which seems relatively reasonable). That's very good from our perspective, a civilization covering an appreciable fraction of the galaxy's disk could many orders of magnitude larger.
They prefer to do their killing themselves, so I'd say no, though the technology wouldn't be completely outside their consideration if they felt the need for it. Their prime attribute, beyond abject xenocidal mania, is arrogance. If they had any degree of consideration towards Neumann machines, they'd think them crude and unworthy at best.
Let me put it another way, how close are they to what one might call an effective postscarcity economy (one where machines do all the work and there's no need for human - err, alien - labor)?
In terms of size, Benefactor Motherships range 10 Km long by 4 Km wide, with fighter bays, shielding, armour and big guns that have a limited amount of ammunition. Cruisers are of similar proportion and configuration, 1 Km long by 400 Meters wide. Cruisers can re-arm and re-fuel fighters but have no hangars or bays where they can be maintained properly.
What I'm trying to calculate here ultimately is the Enemy's capability to produce huge sensor nets and conduct probe sweeps of large numbers of very large debris fields. So what I really want is their mass, how many can be produced per year, and some approximation of their opportunity cost in telescopes or simple space probes.
Fairly large, though I imagine such telescopes would be space based. I'd have to picture interferometers the size of solar systems at least... if they can exist on such a scale of course... possibly even larger.
I'm really more interested in the biggest single telescope they could produce. For the kind of work I'm thinking of light gathering capacity is probably going to be more important than angular resolution.
One possibility to consider in the vein of running... what about retreat into the Earth? If Benefactor armour is capable of withstanding the forces involved then conditions in the mantle shouldn't be too difficult for them.
I'm not so sure. The problem with hiding in a place like the mantle is there's nowhere to dump the heat, and even the most awesome insulator can't keep the stuff inside it drastically cooler than the external environment forever (not to mention humans and equipment are going to produce heat themselves which will have to be disposed of). This is considerably more difficult than surviving a brief exposure to huge energy.

In principle it can be done, refrigerators and air conditioners move heat from cooler areas to hotter ones all the time, but you'll need one awesome heat pump.

Mind you, if you could do it, it does open a lot of interesting possibilities.
If they try to bake the Earth's crust off to get to you, they lose the biosphere they value
So the Enemy does value biospheres! That's a very interesting data point there, it backs up my suspicion that they're space opera like.
PeZook wrote:Hmm...did anybody think of another possibility?

Aliens exist. Interstellar empires exist.

We should go out and start looking for allies. We could really use the help of a bunch of Proteans...
Maybe, although there's a lot of galaxy to look through, and a civilization with much greater resources than ours apparently failed to find any convenient balance-tipping allies in waiting, so the chances for us would logically be much lower. If resources can be spared though it might not be a bad idea, simply because it's not like we have a whole lot of better options here.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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PeZook wrote:Hmm...did anybody think of another possibility?

Aliens exist. Interstellar empires exist.

We should go out and start looking for allies. We could really use the help of a bunch of Proteans...
This is a very logical objective for my "run the hell away" plan: the refugee ships are also looking to make contact with alien societies not yet aware of the threat and try to form a second, stronger coalition against this threat.

Our friends the Benefactors apparently do not know about 100% of the galaxy's volume, so there may well be unknown alien empires to throw at the enemy that beat us. If that fails, all we can do is run as far away as possible, set up a nucleus of resistance, and pray that they self-destruct before overrunning it: which is not inconceivable, but not something to count on.

Man, I really wish you could close wormholes; that would make this scenario so much simpler.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Well, this is a useless me-too post, but in the face of a superior force, running away beats committing mass suicide hands down.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

Post by Star Wars 888 »

A plan that might work for this scenario:

The benefactors repair their ship.
The benefactors give us their weapons and such and teach us how to make them if possible.
We mass produce space capable long range nuclear missiles (or maybe a more powerful weapon if the benefactors have a pass produce-able weapon more powerful than a nuke)
The benefactors possibly build as many more ships as they can.
The benefactors teach us about space combat and how to board a disabled enemy ship.
If possible, we make some sort of artificial asteroid field in this scenario.

The enemy, being super arrogant according to the OP, sends a single dreadnought to attack Earth. A benefactor ship can go toe to toe with a dreadnought according to the OP, and, aided by massed nuclear missiles and possibly more benefactor ships, the dreadnought could be disabled and boarded. Then, force the commander to relay to the higher ups in that alien race that they've succeeded in their mission. Oh, and tell them that the wormhole is extremely dangerous for some reason and that ships shouldn't go through it anymore. Then, force the surviving engineers on that enemy ship to teach us how to make dreadnoughts and other tech that may be useful. Maybe give them positive incentives to do that. Make sure that they are not inclined to warn the higher ups of the enemy forces.

Therefore, they will believe that they have defeated us. However, meanwhile we can let technology progress and colonize planets until we're powerful enough to take them on.
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Re: Resisting an Invasion

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Star Wars 888 wrote:A plan that might work for this scenario:

The benefactors repair their ship.
The benefactors give us their weapons and such and teach us how to make them if possible.
We mass produce space capable long range nuclear missiles (or maybe a more powerful weapon if the benefactors have a pass produce-able weapon more powerful than a nuke)
The benefactors possibly build as many more ships as they can.
The benefactors teach us about space combat and how to board a disabled enemy ship.
If possible, we make some sort of artificial asteroid field in this scenario.
The Benefactors' entire civilization got rolled up by the hostiles.
It's like a bunch of T-80 tanks got their butts kicked by a force of M1A2s. Their ragged survivors run to us. We then proceed to assist them with.. cherry bombs.
Nukes are bloody useless in the face of civilizations at this level of advancement. I've already mentioned a few things with regards to the efficacy of nukes (not to mention the relative impotency of energy output) in my earlier post, and you can respond to that post anytime you'd like, too.
Star Wars 888 wrote:The enemy, being super arrogant according to the OP, sends a single dreadnought to attack Earth.
You are assuming they are not just arrogant, but downright stupid.
The OP states that the Benefactors' mothership can match and even beat a hostile dreadnought. Damaged or not, the Benefactor fleet has not just a mothership, but the following: "a damaged mothership, six cruisers, a dozen support vessels and a flotilla of fighters".
If they were so stupid as to send a single dreadnought, I doubt they would have beat the Benefactors.. unless the Benefactors were even more stupid.
Instead of assuming your enemy is dumb enough to send a single ship, it's a far better idea to pack up and start hightailing it.
"..history has shown the best defense against heavy cavalry are pikemen, so aircraft should mount lances on their noses and fly in tight squares to fend off bombers". - RedImperator

"ha ha, raping puppies is FUN!" - Johonebesus

"It would just be Unicron with pew pew instead of nom nom". - Vendetta, explaining his justified disinterest in the idea of the movie Allspark affecting the Death Star
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