Australian Federal Election thread - 2010 edition.

[Chris OFarrell]

Indeed, Watching Tuckey slowly die proves that despite everything, you can ALWAYS find a silver lining if you look hard enough.

Still, I think its extreemly likely the Government will fall appart in less then a year as the Independents, for all their talk, will simply prove too difficult to work with in the long term. Especially if the Greens hold the balance of power in the senate.

Frankly I wouldn't mind this outcome terribly much, the Economy is in good enough shape that we can afford a year with minimal Government, especialy as most of the Supply issues/stances were hammered out in the election, assuming the mining tax can be pushed through.
I am already starting to get a little tired of these independents attitude; the way they keep ranting on about the country areas of Australia, you'd think that they were about as well looked after as downtown Mogadishu. They gleefully extorted a bunch of cash, just for voting for Supply really, but they are openly now going to have a veto power on ANY other piece of legislation? Yes, I'd even agree that in certian areas the rurual areas have been overlooked for some time, but its clear that this is only the begining of a much wider campaign of taking everything they can from the city and throwing it into the country; THEIR country of course. I've lost count of how many pet issues Windsor and Oakeshott have mentioned, then added 'and my position will give me unique abilities to make a difference!' or something along those lines.

I mean I don't think a minority Government is an entirely unworkable or stupid idea on paper - IF you think both Windsor and Oakeshott actually understand the idea of the quid pro quo. But their attitude (and Cooks for that matter - and Katter is as always on another planet where he is Emperor of North Queensland or something) just screams to me that that the Government will try to pass something, probably something promised in the election, they'll make lots of 'oh i don't think so, no, not really...' noises until the Government throws in a whole heep of cash for them -which given the budget will mean slashing some program from a city or two - at which point the Greens will say 'Yeah, we don't think so'...and nothing gets done. At the least, if the Government is playing smart about this, they should spread out the various funding commitments for all these little promises over the entire three year timeframe, hell, as far back into the three years as they can. If the Independents start being too hard to work with, then you can tell them that you'll be happy to call an election and blame them loudly for it...

[bobalot]

On a 2 party preferred basis the difference was 0.02% with 88.18% couted

OBVIOUSLY against the will of the people.

What is the confidence interval of that stat :V

I am pretty sure concepts like the confidence interval don't apply when you already count the ENTIRE population you're studying as opposed to a sample size of that population.

As I said, Labor is set to win the two party preferred vote (by a hair).

[bobalot]

Just an update. Labor wins the 2PP by a whisker. 50.12-49.88

No more "against the will of the people" bullshit, but I doubt the Coalition will stop using it.

Source

[mr friendly guy]

I like to see Julie Bishops face when she found out those results. But they will most probably resort to the same bullshit Lion-O used, lots of people voted against the ALP, therefore its somehow an endorsement of the Coalition. Talk about false dilemna's.

[Ford Prefect]

In positive Liberal news, Will Hodgman has, after failing to show decisive leadership in the Tasmanian state election, grown a pair and is undoubtedly on his way to throat-punch Eric Abetz right now. As unlikely as it would be for Hodgman to actually really enact huge change or dislodge the powerful right-wing conservatives in his party, it's a good effort (and pretty brave). I'd like to see that sort of thing more often, especially on the Federal level, but that seems unlikely. Australian politics are so stagnant and complacent.

[bobalot]

In positive Liberal news, Will Hodgman has, after failing to show decisive leadership in the Tasmanian state election, grown a pair and is undoubtedly on his way to throat-punch Eric Abetz right now. As unlikely as it would be for Hodgman to actually really enact huge change or dislodge the powerful right-wing conservatives in his party, it's a good effort (and pretty brave). I'd like to see that sort of thing more often, especially on the Federal level, but that seems unlikely. Australian politics are so stagnant and complacent.

Could you expand a bit more? I would love for the non-nutty wing of the Liberal party to recover from the deep funk they have been since the 1980's.

[Ford Prefect]

There's not a huge amount of information exactly floating around, but Hodgman gave an interview to the effect that he wants to seriously reform the Tasmanian state Liberal party, wanting to decentralise party policy and bring back more small l liberalism and counter the increasing power of the right-wing elements. He admitted that this meant he was essentially challenging Abetz and his supremacy within the Liberal party. I'm not sure how well he's going to do, though I'd like to imagine that he'll achieve something despite the magnitude of the task. I'll give him kudos for the political courage, though.

[bobalot]

There's not a huge amount of information exactly floating around, but Hodgman gave an interview to the effect that he wants to seriously reform the Tasmanian state Liberal party, wanting to decentralise party policy and bring back more small l liberalism and counter the increasing power of the right-wing elements. He admitted that this meant he was essentially challenging Abetz and his supremacy within the Liberal party. I'm not sure how well he's going to do, though I'd like to imagine that he'll achieve something despite the magnitude of the task. I'll give him kudos for the political courage, though.

I genuinely hope so. Abott, Abetz and the other right-wing nutjobs in the Liberal party are starting to emulate the American Republican party more each day.

Abbott to this day still states he won more votes and seats, despite getting less votes and a equal number of seats.

[xt828]

Has that WA National decided whether he's part of the Coalition or not yet?