The Miracle of House Brandenburg and consequences

[Metahive]

I already mentioned the "miracles" on another thread but I wish to specifically discuss them in more depth. Quick reminder, the first (and actually titled as such) Miracle of House Brandenburg occured during the Seven Years War, after Frederick II of Prussia suffered a crushing defeat in the battle of Kunersdorf. Contemplating abdication and suicide, he was eventually saved by his opponents hesitating to exploit their victory and march towards Berlin. The second and generally known today as the titular miracle happened later, when the russian tsarina died and was replaced by an adoring fanboy of Frederick who reversed the alliances and changed from Prussia's enemy to its ally just as the coalition was about to crush it.

The question I have now is, if either miracle had not happened, if the coalition had pressed onto Berlin or the Tsarina survived for another couple of years, what would be the most likely consequences and how would they affect Frederick's reputation in history? I think it was Voltaire or someone else, I can't quite remember who, who said that losing one of those wars would have caused him to become known as "elender abenteurer/pitiful daredevil" in history instead of gaining the byname "the Great" since he himself instigated a good number of them, how much truth is there to it?

[MarshalPurnell]

The terms to be imposed on Prussia were such as to wipe it from the ranks of the Great Powers, in a way more thorough than Napoleon had even contemplated. Austria was to regain Silesia (of course), the Rhenish provinces were to go to France, Pomerania would be taken by Sweden, and Prussia itself was to be given to Poland in exchange for Courland being transferred to Russia. That would basically have reduced the state to Brandenberg proper, which lacked the population and economic resources to be a nascent great power in the same way Prussia was. Given the rather thorough crushing that would entail and coming as it would after a far more prolonged war, with the great hero Frederick reduced to a cautionary tale about upsetting the balance of power, I doubt it would retain the ambitions to rise again.

The alliance between the Continental powers would be on a more solid basis once crowned with success, which is not good news for Britain, which probably sees Hanover occupied by the French in relatively short order after Prussia's collapse. Though the course of colonial war is largely independent of the war in Europe and France's ability to sustain a war much longer than historical is doubtful. With the greater degree of foreign control over parts of the Holy Roman Empire it is difficult to imagine German unification happening without some more significant upheavals. The acquisition of new territories in Europe would have an impact on the French domestic scene as the war is not an abject failure, while the often mooted transfer of the Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria would probably be successfully pushed forward, which has its own impact on the balance of power inside the Habsburg domains. Without Frederick's prompting the partitions of Poland probably would not happen either, leaving it up in the air whether or not Poland-Lithuania could reform successfully or would remain a Russian vassal-state.

The rise of Prussia was so central to late 18th century and 19th century European history that the longer term consequences of it not happening are very difficult to foresee.

[Bottlestein]

The question I have now is, if either miracle had not happened, if the coalition had pressed onto Berlin or the Tsarina survived for another couple of years, what would be the most likely consequences and how would they affect Frederick's reputation in history?

When you say "coalition": did the Russians have the troops to press Berlin before the French get to it? As far as I remember, Kolberg was costly for them. They could bring reinforcements, but the French or Austrians might occupy it first. I do not know enough details about the Russian court during the last decade of Elisabeth's reign. She herself was Francophilic to the extreme, but she had devolved a lot of power to the nobles. During the last year of her life, I thought she was far too gone to handle the war business - it was some nobles who shared her Francocentric balance of power ideas who did the grunt work.

In either case, Frederick contemplated suicide and had he carried through then his reign certainly would have served as a warning. As Marshall Purnell pointed out, Prussia would not have maintained the Polish provinces as long as Russia did better than historically - and all the economic and population impact that implies.

[Metahive]

After Kunersdorf the Austrians and the Russians were standing right before Berlin, I think the French were nowhere near at that time.
Instead of pressing on the two allies decided to regroup at Potsdam instead giving Frederick time to reform his army and block their eventual advance at Fürstenwalde.

[The Dark]

The question I have now is, if either miracle had not happened, if the coalition had pressed onto Berlin or the Tsarina survived for another couple of years, what would be the most likely consequences and how would they affect Frederick's reputation in history?

When you say "coalition": did the Russians have the troops to press Berlin before the French get to it? As far as I remember, Kolberg was costly for them. They could bring reinforcements, but the French or Austrians might occupy it first. I do not know enough details about the Russian court during the last decade of Elisabeth's reign. She herself was Francophilic to the extreme, but she had devolved a lot of power to the nobles. During the last year of her life, I thought she was far too gone to handle the war business - it was some nobles who shared her Francocentric balance of power ideas who did the grunt work.

In either case, Frederick contemplated suicide and had he carried through then his reign certainly would have served as a warning. As Marshall Purnell pointed out, Prussia would not have maintained the Polish provinces as long as Russia did better than historically - and all the economic and population impact that implies.

The combined Russo-Austrian army had 44,000 soldiers after Kunersdorf, less than six kilometers from Berlin. When Frederick retreated to Berlin, he did so with 3,000 soldiers, although another 26,000 or so regrouped in Berlin four days later. The only force I can remember the French having in the Germanies that year was the Marquis de Contades' army, which lost the Battle of Minden 11 days prior to Kunersdorf.The French retreated to Kassel, which is nearly 300 kilometers from Berlin, and Prince Ferdinand's army was still in their way.

[Thanas]

First of all, Frederick contemplating suicide is dramatic sure, but it seems to be SOP for him after great defeats. With that in mind, I doubt Prussia would have faltered that easily. It still had enough soldiers left to challenge any army. Sure, in the long run the Prussian army had no manpower reserves anymore, but Prussia was at the brink of defeat several times during the war already and managed to muddle through.

And let us not forget that the Austrians still have to get through Prince Heinrich, who probably was the greatest general of maneuver throughout the entire war.

That said, I really doubt any treaty would have greatly punished Prussia. Silesia would be lost, sure, but Austria needed at least a semi-strong Prussia against Russia/Sweden as well as France, the traditional main rival of Austria.

[Metahive]

It might however mean that Prussia would fall under austrian influence and propbably be stunted in growth or kept from rising to a continental superpower as it did in reality. It also stands to question if and how the polish divisions would have fared with a defeated Prussia. That Poland would eventually fall apart and invite others to tear out pieces would happen with or without a victorious Prussia due to the internal flaws of its system of government I think. Would Russia or Austria allow Prussia to annex West Prussia and the rise of its monarchs from Kings in Prussia to Kings of Prussia with a more unified territory?

[Bottlestein]

^ What is a good text on the war (English or French preferable, but okay if German)?

My own understanding was that the Russian and Austrians had not consolidated enough to force Berlin, but it appears that they had?

[Metahive]

For a quick and compact introduction and overview I recommend Marian Füssel's Der Siebenjährige Krieg - Ein Weltkrieg im 18. Jahrhundert. It's cheap and easily available. If you think your German is adequate enough give it a try.

[Laudon]

You could also try Christopher Duffy´s By force of Arms, very detailed study of the Seven years war. But it is lengthy tome and not cheap.