Korean situation thread

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Korean situation thread

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Note: I've merged all three threads together and pruned them somewhat. The original thread title was something to the effect of "Nukes return to South Korea" --Lagmonster

And it may be by the Republic of Korea's own request.
U.S. Tactical Nukes May Return to South Korea wrote:If North Korea’s going to flaunt its new uranium-enrichment facility to the world, South Korea isn’t going to sit back and take it. Seoul is considering a request for the U.S. to return tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean peninsula for the first time in 15 years. Remember when President Obama was going to put the world on a “path to zero” nukes?

Over the weekend, a U.S. scientist revealed that North Korea took him on a tour of its new “ultra-modern” uranium-enrichment plant at Yongbyon, ending longstanding doubts about Pyongyang’s home-grown capabilities at turning uranium into nuclear fuel. (Though it’s unclear whether the plant is already enriching uranium.) South Korea’s defense minister quickly cooked up a response, the Korea Herald reports: consider asking the U.S. to bring its nuclear weapons back.

“We will review (the redeployment) when (Korea and the U.S.) meet to consult on the matter at a committee for nuclear deterrence,” Minister Kim Tae-young told parliament, the Herald reports. That’s set to happen next month, when a recently-formalized U.S.-South Korean defense committee meets.

President George H.W. Bush announced in 1991 that the U.S. would withdraw all its battle-ready nukes from the Korean peninsula and Europe to deescalate global nuclear tensions. Bush the Elder boxed the sea-based, 2500-kilometer range Tomahawk cruise missile. And this year, the Pentagon’s giant strategy review recommended putting the Tomahawk out to pasture as part of an overall posture of taking nukes out of warfighting scenarios.

But in a Pentagon meeting with Minister Kim last month, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said North Korean “provocations will not be tolerated.” In the last 18 months, Pyongyang has tested a nuclear weapon, killed 46 South Korean sailors, and is now flaunting a new path to expanding its nuclear arsenal. Can the U.S. really turn down a request for tactical nukes if the Seoul makes it? The Pentagon punted the question to the White House. We’re waiting for a response and will update if and when we receive it.

A Korean defense ministry spokesman told the Associated Press that the effect of bringing the nukes back would be “mainly psychological,” since the U.S. has intimated for decades that it’ll nuke the North if it pushes the South too far. But it wouldn’t just be a psychological gesture to reassure Seoul and warn Pyongyang. It would also be a serious blow to Obama’s dream of denuclearizing the world, something for which, in part, he won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Already Obama may face a huge defeat in the Senate on his treaty with Russia to reduce each country’s nuclear weapons. That treaty doesn’t actually cover the smaller, less-threatening “tactical” nuclear weapons, focusing instead on giant nukes that could destroy whole cities. But the logic of returning nukes to a U.S. ally to prevent a potential conflict runs counter to Obama’s entire effort, since he’d concede that nuclear weapons have a place in conflict.

If the South Koreans make a nuke request and the U.S. denies it, though, the administration would effectively back away from an ally facing an escalating threat from one of the most erratic and militarized nations on earth. Already, Obama’s special envoy for North Korea is in Seoul for talks on the new uranium facility, saying the revelation is “not a crisis.” But if Bosworth can’t forestall the South Korean defense ministry from asking for U.S. nukes, it might quickly become a different type of headache.
All the more reason to end the wars in the Middle East and have them prepared for when shit on the DMZ goes hot.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by adam_grif »

Other than putting people's minds at ease, what tangible effect would this even have on the region? NK can't realistically expect to mount an invasion of the south without getting promptly curb-stomped by SK and her regional allies, and if they want to go nuclear then the US can obligingly retaliate in short order.

Have I missed something obvious here?
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Talhe »

For the more military minded posters, could any of you give a rough guesstimate on how long North Korea would last against a theoretical campaign by South Korea? My knowledge of warfare is rather limited, but I was under the impression that the massive military of North Korea was undermined due to poor armor and artillery.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Korgeta »

And to make matters well, worse N korea has fired some artillery onto S Korea's borders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11818005

It seems N Korea is feeling confident about it's own position of late or is being very reckless.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by adam_grif »

Minor update:
Seoul says the country is on its highest non-wartime alert and F16 fighter jets have been scrambled to the location.

Around 60 to 70 houses were ablaze after the shelling, according to a witness.

Two people were apparently injured while another report claimed four soldiers were hurt.

The rounds landed on Yeonpyeong island and also went into the sea near the countries' disputed western border.

South Korea says its troops then returned fire.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has held an emergency meeting following the incident.

He said he was trying to prevent the exchange of artillery fire from escalating into a greater conflict.

YTN television reported that Seoul had warned of a stronger response if the North continued with provocations.
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A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Chaotic Neutral »

Talhe wrote:For the more military minded posters, could any of you give a rough guesstimate on how long North Korea would last against a theoretical campaign by South Korea? My knowledge of warfare is rather limited, but I was under the impression that the massive military of North Korea was undermined due to poor armor and artillery.
It more of a question of "How long does it take for aircraft to destroy every tank and building in North Korea?"

Even if North Korea's equipment wasn't shit, and they had training, a hell, let's add supplies too, it doesn't matter since they have no air control.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Cecelia5578 »

adam_grif wrote:
Korgeta wrote:And to make matters well, worse N korea has fired some artillery onto S Korea's borders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11818005

It seems N Korea is feeling confident about it's own position of late or is being very reckless.
Was just about to post this. Shit's gettin' real.

Homefront may be proven wrong before it even comes out 8)

Eh, I'm not gonna freak out just yet, mostly because while its a pretty big incident, I think it still falls under the category of "sporadic, crazy and unpredictable shit the DPRK occasionally does." *Everyone* (well, at least the US and ROK) has a pretty big incentive to not let things get hot.

I mean, the DPRK tried to assassinate President Park back in the 70s, and that didn't lead to war. So, lets all calm down and not start writing mental techno thrillers.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Cecelia5578 »

Chaotic Neutral wrote:
Talhe wrote:For the more military minded posters, could any of you give a rough guesstimate on how long North Korea would last against a theoretical campaign by South Korea? My knowledge of warfare is rather limited, but I was under the impression that the massive military of North Korea was undermined due to poor armor and artillery.
It more of a question of "How long does it take for aircraft to destroy every tank and building in North Korea?"

Even if North Korea's equipment wasn't shit, and they had training, a hell, let's add supplies too, it doesn't matter since they have no air control.
Except for all that pre-positioned artillery and missile launchers with range of Seoul. And DPRK commando forces which undoubtedly would cause some nasty shit.

A better question would be (one which I have no idea what the answer is either): how much DPRK artillery and missiles could be destroyed by ROK/US forces before Seoul (and probably Inchon as well) is massively fucked?
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by adam_grif »

Cecelia5578 wrote:
Eh, I'm not gonna freak out just yet, mostly because while its a pretty big incident, I think it still falls under the category of "sporadic, crazy and unpredictable shit the DPRK occasionally does." *Everyone* (well, at least the US and ROK) has a pretty big incentive to not let things get hot.

I mean, the DPRK tried to assassinate President Park back in the 70s, and that didn't lead to war. So, lets all calm down and not start writing mental techno thrillers.
Of course nothing is going to happen. Earlier this year NK sank an SK warship and everybody knew they did it and nobody cared. Nobody wants a war, South Korea will take heavy damage and NK will get obliterated and this is in neither party's best interests. Things like this happen on a semi-regular basis.
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Talhe wrote:For the more military minded posters, could any of you give a rough guesstimate on how long North Korea would last against a theoretical campaign by South Korea? My knowledge of warfare is rather limited, but I was under the impression that the massive military of North Korea was undermined due to poor armor and artillery.
It would take a couple days maximum for the RoK alone to steamroll Best Korea.

The best tank in the NORK arsenal is the P'okpung-Ho (Storm Tiger), which we didn't know a whole lot about and until recently we thought it was going to be a T-72 equivalent. In actuality it's a T-62 with an extended hull, a 115mm gun, '60s nightvision equipment, and a laser rangefinder from the '80s. They only have about ~300 of them, the rest of their tanks are about 1k Chonma-Hos (another derivative of a T-62), ~600 PT-76s (designed in the '50s), 800 T-62s, 2000 T-55s, and 1000 Type 59 (a Chinese licensed version of the T-54A)

Meanwhile the South's newest Tank is the K2 about as modern as you can get but they only have three, the vast majority of the South's arsenal are K1 (1027) and K1A1s (400), which is based on the M1 Abrams. They also have ~35 total T-80U and T-80UK. The rest of their tank arsenal are ~380 M48A3/A3K and ~500 M48A5/A5Ks in reserve status, which are being sold or scrapped soon since the ROK are moving K1s into reserve as the K2s come off the line to replace them.

As for artillery, while the ROK has vastly newer artillery, it's entirely irrelevant since the only difference is the FCS and the DPRK has had sixty years to dial-in every target within range, including Seoul.

Air supremacy is undeniably in the hands of the ROKAF since the North only has ~40 MiG-29s and after them are their ~40 Su-25s, those are the only planes worth mentioning since the rest are MiG-17, -19, -21, -23, Su-7, and -22 of various types that are going to die in droves to the ROK anti-air defense systems. The oldest thing in the ROKAF's arsenal are F-4 Phantoms (68), the rest are F-5E Tiger IIs (174), F-16C/D (169), and so far the F-15K Slam Eagle (48).
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by adam_grif »

Schats, I imagine the picture only gets grimmer for the Norks when you factor in the USFK and whatever Japan manages to muster.
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Lonestar »

adam_grif wrote:Schats, I imagine the picture only gets grimmer for the Norks when you factor in the USFK and whatever Japan manages to muster.

I wouldn't rely on Japan to jump in with guns blazing, there isn't a lot of love lost between the Japanese and Korean People. However over, it does provide a relatively safe place for Coalition forces(I find it unlikely that only the US would try to put a stop to the fighting) to stage out of.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

adam_grif wrote:Schats, I imagine the picture only gets grimmer for the Norks when you factor in the USFK and whatever Japan manages to muster.
I don't include them for the reason that South Korea entirely unassisted could steamroll the North, they don't need our help and one of the only reasons we're still there is to add bodies so that when war breaks out we have enough boots on the ground so that we don't have a repeat of Iraq where we didn't have enough men to secure the Iraqi armories and weapons depots from being looted.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by adam_grif »

Is it known what the North have fit their nuclear arsenal onto? Some kind of MRBM? Does the south have any kind of missile defense? And is there anything they can do about the gajillion artillery pieces aimed at Seoul short of a preemptive strike?

I don't doubt that SK can wipe the floor with NK, but I can't see them doing it without suffering significant (mostly civilian) losses.
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
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Nork arty kills SK civilians.

Post by weemadando »

I hate to say it, but it looks like giving a chance with regards to sinking a warship might have just backfired.
ABC News wrote:Deadly exchange of fire between two Koreas
By North Asia correspondent Mark Willacy, wires

Updated 23 minutes ago


The shells smashed into the island of Yeonpyeong near the tense Yellow Sea border between the two Koreas. (Yonhap News)

South Korea's military says it is on its highest non-wartime alert after reports of North Korean artillery shells landing on a South Korean border island, damaging homes and resulting in at least one death.

The country's Yonhap newsagency and YTN Television say the shells smashed into the island of Yeonpyeong, about 3km south of the Yellow Sea border and 120km west of Seoul.

Quoting a resident of the island, they said 50 shells landed, damaging dozens of houses and injuring some people.

South Korea's military has confirmed one marine was killed and three others were in a serious condition.

Defence minister Kim Tae-Young says the South fired 80 shots in response to the North's shelling.

The exchange, which lasted for about an hour, was the most serious between the two Koreas in years.

The Yellow Sea border has been the site of several exchanges of fire, with naval clashes claiming a number of lives.

South Korea's top presidential aides are meeting in an underground bunker at the presidential compound, while a fighter jet has been deployed to the west-coast island.

President Lee Myung-bak says he is trying to prevent the exchange of fire from escalating into a greater conflict, Yonhap reports.

YTN reported Seoul had warned of a stronger response if the North continued with provocations.

Island resident Lee Jong-Sik told YTN that at least 10 houses were burning.

"I can't see clearly for the smoke. The hillsides are also on fire," he said.

"We were told by loudspeakers to flee our homes."

TV footage showed huge plumes of smoke rising from the island.

Residents have been evacuated to safe areas and the military and police are checking the number of casualties, YTN said.

"I was at home but suddenly heard a thunderous sound outside. When I walked out, the whole village was on fire," a villager was quoted by Yonhap as saying.

"I'm at the evacuation site with other villagers and I am scared to death."

South Korea's joint chiefs of staff confirmed shells landed directly on the island, where a South Korean marine detachment is based and others in nearby waters.

The incident comes amid high cross-border tensions over the North's nuclear program and the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship near the border in March.

Tags: unrest-conflict-and-war, north-korea, south-korea

First posted 1 hour 27 minutes ago
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North Korea bombards South Korea on Yeonpyeong Island

Post by Sea Skimmer »

Artillery fire on Korean border

South Korea says it has returned fire after North Korea fired around 200 artillery shells onto one of its border islands, reportedly killing one marine.

The South's military was placed on its highest non-wartime alert after the shells landed on Yeonpyeong island.

North Korea has not yet commented on the incident, in which three marines and two civilians were also injured.

Correspondents say this is one of the most serious since the the Korean War ended without a peace treaty in 1953.

There have been occasional cross-border clashes since, but the latest incident comes at a time of rising regional tension.

North Korea's reclusive leader Kim Jong-il is believed to be ill and trying to engineer the succession of his youngest son. And on Saturday, North Korea showed off what it claimed was a new uranium enrichment facility - potentially giving it a second route to a nuclear weapon.

The move prompted the US special representative for North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, to rule out the resumption of six-party talks on resolving the nuclear issue.

South Korean presidential spokesman Kim Hee-jung also said it was investigating a possible link between the artillery attack and recent maritime exercises near the western sea border earlier on Tuesday.
'Illegal firing'

South Korean officials said artillery rounds began landing on Yeonpyeong island, near the disputed inter-Korean maritime border about 100km (60 miles) west of the Korean Peninsula.
Continue reading the main story
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* Q&A: Inter-Korean crisis

"A North Korean artillery unit staged an illegal firing provocation at 1434 (0534 GMT) and South Korean troops fired back immediately in self-defence," the defence ministry said.

A resident on the island, where between 1,200 and 1,300 people live, told the AFP news agency that dozens of houses were damaged, while television pictures showed plumes of smoke rising above the island.

"Houses and mountains are on fire and people are evacuating. You can't see very well because of plumes of smoke," a witness on the island told YTN television station. "People are frightened to death."

The military said one marine was killed and three others were injured, according to South Korea's YTN television. Two civilians were also hurt.

The South Korean military has fired 80 artillery shells in response and also deployed fighter jets to Yeonpyeong.

However, President Lee Myung-bak urged officials attending an emergency cabinet meeting to try to prevent any further escalation.

A spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry said that both countries should "do more to contribute to peace".

"What's imperative now is to restart six-party talks as soon as possible," Hong Lei told a news conference in Beijing.

News of the incident has already been felt on international financial markets, with both the Korean won and the Japanese yen falling in value.

This western maritime border, also known as the Northern Limit Line, has been the scene of numerous clashes between the two Koreas in the past.

In March, a South Korean warship went down near the border with the loss of 46 lives.

International investigators say a North Korean torpedo sank the ship, although Pyongyang has denied any role in the incident.

Since then relations between the two neighbours have remained tense.


I don't think this one is going to be swept under the rug so easily as the last incident, this has not been unexpected but its an all out act of war even more blatantly overt then blowing up Cheonan. Denial is totally impossible, and any gun able to reach across the water and hit that island must be of a fairly significant caliber.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

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South Korea itself has no real ABM defenses ,though a few PAC-2 Patriot units using equipment bought from Germany are in training. The US deploys its own Patriots to defend several air bases. The main cities of South Korea have only a token ABM defense from a scattered Nike Hercules. Nike could kill shorter ranged ballistic missiles but it’s fundamentally limited to a single engagement at a time. North Korea would saturate the coverage easily.

Given events in the last hour think its fairly certain the nukes will return now, unless Obama wants to make a point of being weak on North Korea or something equally insane. North Korea is fucking insane enough to the point that you really do have to ask if they wouldn't go set off a nuke to wipe out one of those island outposts. Its certainly not a new idea in fiction... and Norkistan tends to be more absurd then fiction. Would we really press the button over the death of fewer people then the September 11th attacks? It's certainly be a more credible choice if the nukes are in South Korea already, rather then flying in from Gaum or Alaska.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

adam_grif wrote:Is it known what the North have fit their nuclear arsenal onto? Some kind of MRBM? Does the south have any kind of missile defense?
Not that I'm aware of, they are working towards it though. There's nothing to suggest North Korea has moved beyond extremely heavier 1st Gen Devices of which they have maybe a dozen with most estimates putting it at <10, the only ways they could deliver those is out the back of a transport plane or an Il-28 bombers, or they could try driving it directly into Seoul in a truck right through the ROKA's armored units. :lol:

The South is working on it, tehy may be able to get the AEGIS Missile Defense System on their newest ships if they don't already, though right now the the ROKAF has six batteries of PAC-2 Patriot missiles and twenty-four Hawk-XXI (tied to AN/MPQ-64 radars) batteries. The ROKA has 696 self-propelled AAA guns (primarily 20mm vulcans but they have some 30mm), another two-hundred K-SAM SP SAM (using the Crotale NG), and thirty-six towed 35mm guns. The ROKN's main surface ships are all guided missile destroyers and their newest are the two Sejong the Great-class DDG which also have the AEGIS Missile System and have similar capabilities to our Arleigh Burke and the Japanese Atagos, with one of the only major difference is the StGs can carry 128 missiles to the other two's 98.
And is there anything they can do about the gajillion artillery pieces aimed at Seoul short of a preemptive strike?

I don't doubt that SK can wipe the floor with NK, but I can't see them doing it without suffering significant (mostly civilian) losses.
About the only thing that could be done is slowly move everyone farther South, but Seoul is already prepared pretty well, there will be thousands of casualties but it would be a lot worse without the significant preparations they've made including bunkers throughout the city and widely known evacuation plans.
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Re: North Korea bombards South Korea on Yeonpyeong Island

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Sea Skimmer wrote:Denial is totally impossible...
Skimmer, you greatly underestimate North Korea, denial is certainly possible, indeed plausible, just not credible. :P
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Re: North Korea bombards South Korea on Yeonpyeong Island

Post by MKSheppard »

This is apparently the third time it's happened. First it was in 1999 then in 2002.

But in those incidents it didn't come in the same year that a warship was sunk by North Korea...
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by LaCroix »

Any info about how many arty sites the south took out in response? They fired 80 shells in defense, but didn't mention how many they hit. (I doubt the ROK shelled a Nork town in response)
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

There's been some Tweets form @LiveNewsWire: ALERT: A North Korean naval fleet is moving toward South Korea, according to news agency - MBC.

Fortunately, I can't find it on their page anywhere, so it may be a hoax, a really stupid hoax.

According to their page though, the attack killed two ROK Marines and injured twelve more, and a handful of civilians. The current thought as to why the bombardment ended (lasting over an hour) is that ROK counterbattery fire silenced the DPRK guns for good.
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by adam_grif »

BBC is running a live update page.

They posted about how India has posted 36,000 troops along the Chinese border, although as far as I can tell that has nothing to do with the Korean developments.
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
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Ritterin Sophia
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Reportedly the Japanese PM has also said something about preparing for 'unexpected events'.

Also I'd just like to give a shout out to the American News Media who instead of keeping us up to date on the potential event of the Korean War touching off again are instead talking about Partisan Politics. Good job guys.
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The Grim Squeaker
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Re: Tactical Nukes May Return to Korea

Post by The Grim Squeaker »

Hands up who thinks that South Korea will bend over and try to ignore this (yet again)?
I understand the rationality (a war will inflict immense damage to Seoul), but there's a difference between the greater good and mealy mouthed Appeasement.
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