Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:It seems to be a tacit admission that this particular round of Israel vs Palestine is going to end in yet another draw.
I'd like to raise a point. I've been following this issue somewhat peripherally since 1996; some fourteen years and three different administrations.

In all three administrations; I've seen them pursue a chimaerical goal, expending a lot of their foreign policy attention and credibility in hopes of achieving a "breakthrough".

Wouldn't it be far better for the world and US foreign policy as a whole, if we basically just ignored the whole "Israel vs everyone else" issue, and just settled for the status quo, and used the diplomatic manpower and presidental time saved to actually achieve something USEFUL in the world; like trying to work out some sort of agreement between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan?

While the PRC and Taiwanese don't like each other and both sides claim they are the legimitate heir to CHINA; they are both rational actors and act sanely; so diplomatic efforts expended there will reap better rewards than trying to deal with a situation in which only one side is truly interested in peace.

For example, we have a much better probability of getting a trilateral agreement signed setting up a joint Coast Guard force to patrol the Taiwan straits than we do with anything from the Middle East.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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MKSheppard wrote:Wouldn't it be far better for the world and US foreign policy as a whole, if we basically just ignored the whole "Israel vs everyone else" issue, and just settled for the status quo, and used the diplomatic manpower and presidental time saved to actually achieve something USEFUL in the world; like trying to work out some sort of agreement between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan?
I'm not sure if you can just ignore it. The US is heavily involved in the Middle East, and the issue is presumably brought up by any and all of their partners in the area (particularly the Jordanians). That's not to mention all of those invested in the issue back home.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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MKSheppard wrote:Wouldn't it be far better for the world and US foreign policy as a whole, if we basically just ignored the whole "Israel vs everyone else" issue, and just settled for the status quo
Maintaining the status quo means supporting a racist, rogue state through heavy subsidization by the US tax payers, that is the status quo. No, it would not be better to continue the status quo.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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MKSheppard wrote:
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:It seems to be a tacit admission that this particular round of Israel vs Palestine is going to end in yet another draw.
I'd like to raise a point. I've been following this issue somewhat peripherally since 1996; some fourteen years and three different administrations.
Wind the clock back another five years or so, or freeze things at the 1993/1994 level and things would be miles better than they are now. By 1996 Netanyahoo had managed to practically destroy any possibility of any kind of real resolution to the Israel/Palestine question by massively expanding settlements and actively sabotaging any efforts at negotiation. That racist shitlicking bastard really made the most of the opportunity Yigal Amir handed him.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Obama has been consistently weak lately, but to be honest, the last guy who tried to make a decisive move against fundamentalist settlements not only lost a lot of support, but also failed to get the motion through due to congress. And no Shep, we can't just "ignore it" cause it means supporting a bunch of racist ignorant fuckers who don't care who they hurt as long as they get lebensraum (note, I am speaking of netenyahu and all the other right wing dick wads, not the moderate israelis.) You say you have analyzed for 14 years, but 9 out of 14 have been from the perception of racist idiot who failed to consider that the other side had quite a few legitimate grievances against israel. Hell in 97 80% of the palestinian population supported negotiations, and according to time 71% of the palestinians favored reconcilling with israel back in 07. Thanks to the wall and cast lead, that number has dropped, as more and more palestinians see only the dark side of israel. What really needs to happen is for america to tell israel "stop freezing settlements or we will cut off all of your funding". We did it after the qibya massacre, we should certainly do it now.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Guardsman Bass wrote:I'm not sure if you can just ignore it.
I'm pretty sure we can. The total GDP for the entire region directly affected by the IvP conflict is $1.4 trillion...it rises to $2~ trillion if we include Turkey.

The GDP for the region that is affected by China's rise to great power status is about $12.8~ trillion.

To put it in terms more understandable; the diplomatic community's hyperfocus on the IvP conflict is like the brave and idealistic teacher who focuses on the brat of the class, and lets the rest of the class suffer.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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America is directly responsible for the existence of Israel, so it washing its hands off it would be quite wrong.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Thanas wrote:America is directly responsible for the existence of Israel, so it washing its hands off it would be quite wrong.
Technically, the United Nations is, and it was the Soviet bloc that gave it the first important arms. Of course, America has been Israels patron for the last few decades, so it is connected to it rather firmly.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Talhe wrote:
Thanas wrote:America is directly responsible for the existence of Israel, so it washing its hands off it would be quite wrong.
Technically, the United Nations is, and it was the Soviet bloc that gave it the first important arms. Of course, America has been Israels patron for the last few decades, so it is connected to it rather firmly.
That is a pretty inconsequential nitpick, to say the least. Especially as "responsible for the existence" can - and in this case does - mean more than just creating the country.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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True. I apologize for the nitpicking.

On the other hand, that could be an interesting alternative history; what would've happened had Israel never come under the sphere of American influence in '67.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Thanas wrote:Especially as "responsible for the existence" can - and in this case does - mean more than just creating the country.
You mean Operation NICKEL GRASS?

567 USAF missions off-loaded 22,300 tons of matériel at Tel Aviv in 32 days over an average distance of 6,450 miles.

935 Red Air Force missions off-loaded about 15,000 tons in Egypt and Syria during a forty-day period over an average distance of 1,700 miles.

The total amount of aid sent (this includes shipments sent via ship):

51,000 tons from the USA to Israel
100,000 tons from the USSR to their Arab Clients.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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MKSheppard wrote:
Thanas wrote:Especially as "responsible for the existence" can - and in this case does - mean more than just creating the country.
You mean Operation NICKEL GRASS?

567 USAF missions off-loaded 22,300 tons of matériel at Tel Aviv in 32 days over an average distance of 6,450 miles.

935 Red Air Force missions off-loaded about 15,000 tons in Egypt and Syria during a forty-day period over an average distance of 1,700 miles.

The total amount of aid sent (this includes shipments sent via ship):

51,000 tons from the USA to Israel
100,000 tons from the USSR to their Arab Clients.
Not to mention that the Arab advance had been pretty much stalled (reversed, in the case of Syiria) by the time the arms actually arrived - the main benefit was to the IDF's morale (which isn't an insignificant issue, of course)
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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MKSheppard wrote:
Thanas wrote:Especially as "responsible for the existence" can - and in this case does - mean more than just creating the country.
You mean Operation NICKEL GRASS?
That, and a host of other things like financial aid, weapons procurement etc.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Thanas wrote:That, and a host of other things like financial aid, weapons procurement etc.
You mean like the M1A1 Abrams tank factory we set up there with US money, and whose production we paid for?

No wait, that was Egypt; who paid only $660~ million, leaving us to foot the rest of the bill of $2.54 billion for Factory 200 outside Cairo and the products that rolled out of it.

Yes; the Egyptians only paid for the factory construction and labor costs. We had to pay for the tanks.

It's all codified in 22 USC Ch 49 LINK which set the framework for the annual "lets send 1/3 of all our foreign aid to just two countries" funfest:

The peace treaty between Egypt and Israel having been ratified, the Congress finds that the national interests of the United States are served -

(1) by authorizing the President to construct air bases in Israel to replace the Israeli air bases on the Sinai peninsula that are to be evacuated;

(2) by authorizing additional funds to finance procurements by Egypt and Israel through the fiscal year 1982 of defense articles and defense services for their respective security requirements;

and

(3) by authorizing additional funds for economic assistance for Egypt in order to promote the economic stability and development of that country and to support the peace process in the Middle East.


It appears that an unofficial ratio of 3:2 was established by the United States regarding aid to Israel and Egypt; though we have never formally admitted such a ratio exists.

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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Edi wrote:Wind the clock back another five years or so, or freeze things at the 1993/1994 level and things would be miles better than they are now.
I've read some of the older political cartoon compilations at various libraries -- what can I say? I'm a political cartoon junkie.

The ones from the 1970s are really very prescient -- one of them shows an arab watching as Henry Kissinger riding a dove goes whizzing past, and he says "There goes the 7 o clock special".

Even back then, the Israel vs Arab issue was a chimaerial endeavour that consumed the political capital of countless presidents.
Wind the clock back another five years or so, or freeze things at the 1993/1994 level and things would be miles better than they are now. By 1996 Netanyahoo had managed to practically destroy any possibility of any kind of real resolution to the Israel/Palestine question by massively expanding settlements and actively sabotaging any efforts at negotiation.
What a lot of people really fail to understand is that the Israeli government is actually you know...an elected government; albeit at times farcial.

Bibi for all his misgivings about Oslo I; decided to continue the approach, albeit at a slower pace -- e.g. the Hebron Protocol was signed under him.

What killed the peace process was the fact that the Israeli government is not a autocracy run by a select few (even though the same names keep showing up); but is ultimately answerable to the Israeli public.

Israel has successively weathered two distinct waves of attacks on it since the Peace Process began:

Wave I (1994-1997) 294 Israelis killed, 1,492 wounded. There were 15 distinct suicide attacks with 165 fatalities attributable to them during this period.

By the way, these early suicide attacks did actually impact the 1996 elections, the first in which Israelis elected their PM directly. Two attacks occured early in May, killing 32. The election took place two weeks later.

Fun factoid: Peres held a comfortable lead in the polls before those two attacks. So you can say that the Palestinians elected Bibi.

Wave II (2001-2005) 1,032 Israelis killed, 6,161 wounded. There were 135 distinct suicide attacks with 524 fatalities during this period.

Basically, this was the Era of the Suicide Bomber Ascendant; and a lot of 'hardening' of Israeli infrastructure occured during this period along with a lot of anti-suicide bomber measures that essentially walled the Palestinians into a ghetto of their own making.

In January 2000 -- 20-25% of the West Bank's workforce, some 125,000 - had permits to work in Israel.

By September 2009; only 21,600 workers had permits.

Amusingly enough, it appears that between 35-45,000 Palestinian illegal workers sneak into Israel through gaps in the border fences; and that there's a thriving smugglers trade which can take up to 50% of the illegal worker's pay for transportation.

LITTLE AMERICA anyone?

Haw.

The Israelis replaced the lost 'official' workers in their economy with Filipinos, Chinese, Thais and East Europeans. In fact, a Thai worker was killed this year in a rocket attack.

Other fun factoids:

One of the evil "Apartheid Roads" that the Israelis have -- Route 443 -- was actually built with connecting roads to various Palestinian Villages.

Route 443 was closed to people with Palestinian plates from 2002 to 28 May 2010 and the connecting roads closed off due to firebomb and sniper attacks on traffic with Israeli plates.

To give you a scale of how bad it was; from 29 September 2000 to 31 May 2001, there were 883 incidents of gunfire towards vehicles with Israeli Plates in the West Bank and Gaza. That's about 3.9 attacks a day on average.

The Israeli solution to these attacks was to build both anti-gunfire barriers and dedicated roads for Israelis to eliminate the sniper attack danger; with the older roads being turned over exclusively for Palestinian use.

Route 5 which was finished in 2008 is one of the evil "Settler Roads". It makes it sound like it is a highway going to a bunch of shacks in the middle of nowhere. It actually connects the Tel Aviv metropolitan area to the Ar'iel region in the West Bank...which has a population of about 25,000. To put this in context for people in the Washington DC region -- it's about the size of College Park, MD.

And just like College Park, MD; it's home to a major college -- the Ariel University Center of Samaria; a 11,000 student facility, the largest public college in Israel, by the way.

But anyway; it appears that the Israelis are finally letting up on their hardening status -- as of Summer 2010; they began to remove concrete anti-sniper barriers from within Ramallah that had been there since 2001. LINK
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Darth Yan wrote:You say you have analyzed for 14 years, but 9 out of 14 have been from the perception of racist idiot who failed to consider that the other side had quite a few legitimate grievances against israel.
Ummm what?

If you had talked to me in 1995-96 or so I would have been with you in the cheering section for the Palestinians; along with the "The US spends more money on military than the rest of the world combined, so we should cut it" cheering section.

Yes; for the early 1990s, I was MIRROR-SHEP. Then I shifted and became the Shep you all know and love by 1999; with a few annoying quirks -- for one, I wasn't firmly pro-Israel until 2001.
What really needs to happen is for america to tell israel "stop freezing settlements or we will cut off all of your funding"
You mean like Gush Etzion? It's a 55,000+ population city; nearly comparable in size to my hometown area of Rockville, MD.

Under "settlement freeze" it means nothing can be built; not even new houses to accomodate population growth; or facilities to accomodate said growth like libraries, schools, etc.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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I just did some quick looking about statistics; and it turns out there were only 7,826 Israelis in the Gaza Strip in 2004; which kind of made it easy for the Israeli government to uproot them in 2005, like they did in the Sinai in 1982.

But...there are currently 304,500 Israelis in the West Bank, 20,000 in the Golan, and 192,000 in "East" Jerusalem.

So the Israelis leaving the West Bank is not a realistic proposition for a roadmap to peace.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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fair enough, but the settlements due hoard an unneccesary amount of resources. DIdn't you admit that the one thing that made you switch to the israeli side was the aftermath of 9/11? What's more, I was a blatant Israeli fanwhore three years ago. Then I read Mike's Essay, and realized that both sides need to get their shit together (Israel needs to offer legitimate deals rather then treaties that make the palestinains one sided bantustans.) Statistically, the palestinains were a lot more willing to support peace up until the 2000 (after hebron it was 80%, in 1999, it was 60%). It wasn't until camp david (which basically gave them a south african bantustan, and prevented them from having control over their water, airspace, or roads, and the country would be sliced in two) that Hamas gained mass public support. So in short, Israel made the palestians think they would never play fair, and that the only way was violence. and the accusations of apartied aren't totally unfounded; when the settlers who are 1% get 80% of the water and 40% of the land, while the other guys aren't allowed enough water for a daily bath, where homes are demolished to make way for Israeli settlements, which suspiciously resemble the bantustans set up after apartied.... then yeah the comparisons are legit. the settelements are made to benefit one group by depriving another of daily resources. What's more, over 3000 palestinians died between 01 and 05, and according to every legitimate source (ie not an israeli apoligist one like shin bet) more then 75% were civillians. Nor does it change that there have been instances of soldiers who have gone overboard and killed innocent people.

PS: as for your motivation for supporting israel....israel did commit greivous and reckless human rights abuses forbidden by geneva, and our funding was the only reason they weren't punished. Essentially. we supported their oppressors. As such, their hatred, while irrational, was understandable.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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General Schatten wrote:Maintaining the status quo means supporting a racist, rogue state through heavy subsidization by the US tax payers, that is the status quo. No, it would not be better to continue the status quo.
No argument there. I just wish I could see a way of changing said status quo that doesn't involve overthrowing the democratically elected government of Israel and replacing it with something that's very unlikely to be an improvement.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Zaune wrote:
General Schatten wrote:Maintaining the status quo means supporting a racist, rogue state through heavy subsidization by the US tax payers, that is the status quo. No, it would not be better to continue the status quo.
No argument there. I just wish I could see a way of changing said status quo that doesn't involve overthrowing the democratically elected government of Israel and replacing it with something that's very unlikely to be an improvement.
Stop funding and them in the UN and make them stand on their own two feet? Move our support to another power in the region more willing to listen to us when we hand them free money? Actually show them that their actions will have consequences rather than a blank check. But that's just crazy talk since the only people who can win elections are Democrats and Republicans, the Coward Party and the Sociopath Party are never going to put any real pressure on Israel
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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MKSheppard wrote:I just did some quick looking about statistics; and it turns out there were only 7,826 Israelis in the Gaza Strip in 2004; which kind of made it easy for the Israeli government to uproot them in 2005, like they did in the Sinai in 1982.

But...there are currently 304,500 Israelis in the West Bank, 20,000 in the Golan, and 192,000 in "East" Jerusalem.

So the Israelis leaving the West Bank is not a realistic proposition for a roadmap to peace.
A lot of the settlers in the west bank are in just three or four spots, so if Israel would get rid of everything else it would most likely be possible to let Israel keep those sites and vastly reduce the number of people they have to move. Basically the way I'd see it working is Israel buys the land; which would be paid out of US aid anyway, and then also cedes some territory south of the green line and west of the Dead Sea as territorial compensation, so the Palestinians aren’t loosing total land area. The land they’d be getting in return is pretty rugged, but so is much of the land the settlers built on anyway. That was the whole point, occupy the hills because the resulting settlements are easier to defend. However this is all far too rational, and not nearly emotional whoring enough to be accepted by either side.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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General Schatten wrote:Stop funding and them in the UN and make them stand on their own two feet? Move our support to another power in the region more willing to listen to us when we hand them free money? Actually show them that their actions will have consequences rather than a blank check. But that's just crazy talk since the only people who can win elections are Democrats and Republicans, the Coward Party and the Sociopath Party are never going to put any real pressure on Israel
Name another power in the region that you would be comfortable bankrolling. And three billion isn't a small sum by anyone's standards, but it's not so huge that Israel couldn't weather losing it if they had to.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

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Zaune wrote:
General Schatten wrote:Stop funding and them in the UN and make them stand on their own two feet? Move our support to another power in the region more willing to listen to us when we hand them free money? Actually show them that their actions will have consequences rather than a blank check. But that's just crazy talk since the only people who can win elections are Democrats and Republicans, the Coward Party and the Sociopath Party are never going to put any real pressure on Israel
Name another power in the region that you would be comfortable bankrolling. And three billion isn't a small sum by anyone's standards, but it's not so huge that Israel couldn't weather losing it if they had to.
If you want one just as bad as Israel there's Egypt, but we actually do get a payoff for paying them, if we stop funding Israel and move the pay to them we can see if the influence that cashflow gives us will allow us to request some move towards social change.

Ideally, we could shift that money to Jordan who is the most pro-America nation in the Middle East and we've had good relations for over forty years. Unlike Israel they've actually been committed to peace. We already give them, but they actually put it to good use paying for infrastructure and social programs to increase the quality of life of her people rather than oppressing minorities.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

Post by Illuminatus Primus »

MKSheppard wrote:
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:It seems to be a tacit admission that this particular round of Israel vs Palestine is going to end in yet another draw.
I'd like to raise a point. I've been following this issue somewhat peripherally since 1996; some fourteen years and three different administrations.

In all three administrations; I've seen them pursue a chimaerical goal, expending a lot of their foreign policy attention and credibility in hopes of achieving a "breakthrough".
Maybe, just maybe, the United States has absolutely no authentic interest in a lasting peace settlement. There's an alternative interpretation that I think parsimoniously explains the evidence.
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Re: Obama to no longer pressure Israel on settlements

Post by Guardsman Bass »

MKSheppard wrote:
Guardsman Bass wrote:I'm not sure if you can just ignore it.
I'm pretty sure we can. The total GDP for the entire region directly affected by the IvP conflict is $1.4 trillion...it rises to $2~ trillion if we include Turkey.

The GDP for the region that is affected by China's rise to great power status is about $12.8~ trillion.
I agree that East Asia is more important, particularly in economic terms - and I do believe that it should be a bigger focus than the Middle East. I just don't think you can ignore it, for the reasons I pointed out. Plus the oil, of course - and other countries are even more dependent on Middle East oil than we are, so problems in that region tend to spill outwards.
MKSheppard wrote:Basically, this was the Era of the Suicide Bomber Ascendant; and a lot of 'hardening' of Israeli infrastructure occured during this period along with a lot of anti-suicide bomber measures that essentially walled the Palestinians into a ghetto of their own making.
That was after the collapse of the best shot at some form of Two-State Solution. I don't blame the Palestinians for being rather disillusioned and angry about the situation.
MKSheppard wrote:Yes; for the early 1990s, I was MIRROR-SHEP. Then I shifted and became the Shep you all know and love by 1999; with a few annoying quirks -- for one, I wasn't firmly pro-Israel until 2001.
The small group of Palestinians cheering in the streets after 9/11 again? That was blown way out of proportion.
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