Egyptians protesting across the country

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I've got the live-blogging by both The Guardian and Al Jazeera English open in separate tabs. Interesting stuff.

The ruling party's headquarters was set on fire (unfortunately, it's close to the national museum), and Mubarak has extended the curfew to the entire country as well as sending the army into several of the cities.

We'll have to see what the Army's main reaction is. If they side with the protestors, then Mubarak is finished - the police haven't been able to quell the protests. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we'll see him flee the country in the next couple of days.

EDIT: It looks like the Army is still siding with Mubarak in Cairo. The Guardian is reporting that it drove off protestors attempting to seize the main building of the state television network in Cairo.

The army is a conscript one in Egypt, and those can usually be counted on to obey the government when putting down city dwellers, as they're a bunch of farm boys who regard people in the cities as distant from their own villages and concerns. If there was insurrection in the countryside the overthrow of Mubarak would be more plausible as the army would be much less likely to stay loyal.

[Broomstick]

This is Egypt we're talking about - just how far away from the urban areas can the "countryside" be? Everything that grows has to be near the Nile, and that's also where the cities are. Sure, there may be a distinction between city and farm but it's a country where the geography might make for less of distance and difference than might otherwise be the case.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Mubarakh just fired his entire government and is promising sweeping reforms, but he's keeping troops in the streets and communications shut down.

[Pelranius]

Will this be enough? Given the situation, I'm betting probably not.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Will this be enough? Given the situation, I'm betting probably not.

He's stalling for time to get the army on his side. He'll have to give up a lot.

Edit: aaaaaaand the army just took the center of Cairo.

[18-Till-I-Die]

Just because the army is behind this douche, doesn't mean he gets an "instawin" button.

Unless Egypt is modeled after Sparta, the people outnumber the army, and no matter how many gold teeth freshly yanked from the mouths of political prisoners the president no doubt pays his generals, I'm sure that eventually the rank and file will eventually have to choose between their commander's paycheck and the public's obvious desire for freedom.

Maybe I'm over-idealistic but I'd like to think that the basic infantryman in Egypt probably will stop giving a fuck about President Asshole after getting pelted with rocks for a few hours and realizing his take home pay is startlingly unlike his COs.

Of course I may be wrong. I don't know, I'd like to think not.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Just because the army is behind this douche, doesn't mean he gets an "instawin" button.

Unless Egypt is modeled after Sparta, the people outnumber the army, and no matter how many gold teeth freshly yanked from the mouths of political prisoners the president no doubt pays his generals, I'm sure that eventually the rank and file will eventually have to choose between their commander's paycheck and the public's obvious desire for freedom.

Maybe I'm over-idealistic but I'd like to think that the basic infantryman in Egypt probably will stop giving a fuck about President Asshole after getting pelted with rocks for a few hours and realizing his take home pay is startlingly unlike his COs.

Of course I may be wrong. I don't know, I'd like to think not.

The problem is that there is always a disconnect between the Avant-garde of a revolutionary movement and the poor farmers' sons who usually make up the vast bulk of the military in a state like this. They don't even have the education to properly conceptualize an alternative, and Broomstick's point isn't that valid because once you get away from Cairo and Alexandria most of Egypt is still fairly medieval, to put it bluntly, that's the case in most Arab states and frankly a lot of third world nations, the capitol has a passable equivalent of modern society, but once you get to the farms?

That disconnect can always be used to good effect. The game changer here though is if the Muslim Brotherhood does indeed join in the protests as they've said they will do now. They will have much greater weight with the rural populace and that could mean the tipping point. It already might, in fact, as I've heard rumours that army units in Alexandria have mutinied and started firing on the police, though that may be unsubstantiated.

I'm rather interested about what a democratic Egypt would do, as I suspect that sort of like the Schleswig War in 1848 with the German Diet agreeing to liberate Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark (though it failed), the one thing the more liberal reformers and democracy advocates and the Muslim Brotherhood could agree upon is the need to invade Israel to succor the Palestinians.

[blahface]

Cenk Uygur has been doing really good coverage of this on MSNBC. When Obama gave his response, Cenk made a comment about it being a "classic Obama hedge." That could put him in trouble with MSNBC.

[Sea Skimmer]

I think Mubarakh just blew off his own feet by firing his government; I cannot see why the protests would stop now when they’ve now so clearly gotten this close to toppling him. It’s the middle of the night in Egypt right now; when the morning comes everyone is going to know this and the protest are bound to be even larger then before.

[Pelranius]

I'm rather interested about what a democratic Egypt would do, as I suspect that sort of like the Schleswig War in 1848 with the German Diet agreeing to liberate Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark (though it failed), the one thing the more liberal reformers and democracy advocates and the Muslim Brotherhood could agree upon is the need to invade Israel to succor the Palestinians.

The Egyptian Army doesn't have the sufficient logistics to attack Israel. The most they'll do, at least for the midterm future, is to probably remove and restrictions on movement with the Gaza Strip.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I'm rather interested about what a democratic Egypt would do, as I suspect that sort of like the Schleswig War in 1848 with the German Diet agreeing to liberate Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark (though it failed), the one thing the more liberal reformers and democracy advocates and the Muslim Brotherhood could agree upon is the need to invade Israel to succor the Palestinians.

The Egyptian Army doesn't have the sufficient logistics to attack Israel. The most they'll do, at least for the midterm future, is to probably remove and restrictions on movement with the Gaza Strip.

Revolutionary regimes without government experience do not operate in terms of logistics, but ideology, and the inchoate fervour of the populace. Though certainly there would be a very protracted buildup to any kind of hostilities, but closing the Straits of Tiran like in the leadup to the Six Days War is hardly impossible. Nor is the prospect of not just opening up the border with Gaza, but moving troops into Gaza to deter the Israelis from launching attacks in Gaza--throwing down the gauntlet by forcing the Israelis to risk an attack on Egyptian troops. The Muslim Brotherhood is a violent Islamist organization but probably holds the support of close to half of Egypt's population. They would be dominant in any new government, and even if they did not have the power to turn Egypt into an Islamist Shariah regime, could still guarantee that any provisional government considers the liberation of Palestine as its highest duty and goal.

[Broomstick]

I'm rather interested about what a democratic Egypt would do, as I suspect that sort of like the Schleswig War in 1848 with the German Diet agreeing to liberate Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark (though it failed), the one thing the more liberal reformers and democracy advocates and the Muslim Brotherhood could agree upon is the need to invade Israel to succor the Palestinians.

The Egyptian Army doesn't have the sufficient logistics to attack Israel. The most they'll do, at least for the midterm future, is to probably remove and restrictions on movement with the Gaza Strip.

You're assuming the Egyptians give a damn about the Palestinians and want to go to war with Israel. Egypt and Israel have been formally at peace for 30 years, they may have gotten used to the situation. Or maybe not. I'm just saying, don't assume because Egyptians are Arabs they'll automatically make common cause with Palestinians. Egypt will act in what is perceived to be Egypt's self interest. I have no doubt that most Arab nations in the Middle East would throw the Palestinians under the bus if they thought it would be to their advantage, and they wouldn't have a problem exploiting Palestinians for their own benefit. Because nations are like that. And if they don't have the resources to attack Israel or successfully wage war I'm hoping they have the sense not to start hostilities. OK, to be honest, even if they do have those resources I'm hoping they don't start hostilities.

[D.Turtle]

I'm rather interested about what a democratic Egypt would do, as I suspect that sort of like the Schleswig War in 1848 with the German Diet agreeing to liberate Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark (though it failed), the one thing the more liberal reformers and democracy advocates and the Muslim Brotherhood could agree upon is the need to invade Israel to succor the Palestinians

WTF? Really, why the hell would they start a war with Israel? Nobody has even hinted at any kind of animosity vs Israel. The whole reason all those protests are taking place, is because of the fucked up situation in Egypt - and you think they'll start a war with Isarel to make it even worse?

As for the Islamic Brotherhood, they have the support of about 20% of the population, not 50%. They are a significant factor, but not the most influential one. Hell, the entire protests taking place so far have been without or with very limited open support by the Islamic Brotherhood. But sure, go on with your typical overly hysteric political expectations...

As for these protests: So much for there being no domino effect in the Arabic/Muslim/North African region. I wonder who will be next...

[Darth Raptor]

I love how every right winger is coming out of the woodwork with infinite hand wringing over the North Africa protests. A lot of it variations on the theme that Arab democracies are bad because Arab people are Muslim and hate the US/Israel. I don't know, when somebody tells me that a dictator in our pocket is better than a free people that we might actually have to shock horror negotiate with, I tend to stop watching their lips flap.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

As for the Islamic Brotherhood, they have the support of about 20% of the population, not 50%. They are a significant factor, but not the most influential one. Hell, the entire protests taking place so far have been without or with very limited open support by the Islamic Brotherhood. But sure, go on with your typical overly hysteric political expectations...

As for these protests: So much for there being no domino effect in the Arabic/Muslim/North African region. I wonder who will be next...

They got 20% of the seats in the legislature, running as independent candidates, in elections which are not as sophisticated as those in Europe and would tend to understate support for the party, and despite official opposition and harassment. Levels of support for the Brotherhood in Egypt are consistently shown to be higher than merely a direct correlation with their result in the 2005 elections.

[Broomstick]

Even if they are diehard Islamic revolutionaries doesn't mean they'll start a war with Israel. Iran when to war with Iraq after the revolution, not Israel. Yes, I realize this was not exactly Iran's choice, but after that war was over they didn't go after Israel, either. Iran despises Israel, but it's 30 years and counting and they still haven't charged over the Israeli border.

[Edward Yee]

I thought the Muslim Brotherhood was (deliberately) keeping its head down for the sake of the protests' success? Or at least, not overtly throwing itself in, let the protests be as nondenominational as possible.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I love how every right winger is coming out of the woodwork with infinite hand wringing over the North Africa protests. A lot of it variations on the theme that Arab democracies are bad because Arab people are Muslim and hate the US/Israel. I don't know, when somebody tells me that a dictator in our pocket is better than a free people that we might actually have to shock horror negotiate with, I tend to stop watching their lips flap.

Oh, I'm not saying it is a bad thing. The current situation vis-a-viz. Israel is completely unsustainable. A democratic Egypt willing to stand up for Palestine would be a good thing; I would support abandoning Israel in a heartbeat if it would do us the service of combating the oppression of freedom of speech and horrendous misogynistic attitudes of the Arab regimes by promoting democratic Arab states as being able to stand up for Arab interests. But then again I also think the US should have supported the Arab world with full vigour against the old Colonialist regimes and socialist-backed Israel in the late 1940s. It was the Czechoslovaks, a Nazi puppet state, and Romania, who were arming Israel in '47, not the west. We irrationally chose to support Israel despite this and in doing so guaranteed a path which squandered most American goodwill in the Arab world and has sent that part of the world into the arms of communism and Islamism.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Even if they are diehard Islamic revolutionaries doesn't mean they'll start a war with Israel. Iran when to war with Iraq after the revolution, not Israel. Yes, I realize this was not exactly Iran's choice, but after that war was over they didn't go after Israel, either. Iran despises Israel, but it's 30 years and counting and they still haven't charged over the Israeli border.

Iran doesn't have a border with Israel. And if they had overrun Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war (impossible, but just saying), they would have kept going.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I thought the Muslim Brotherhood was (deliberately) keeping its head down for the sake of the protests' success? Or at least, not overtly throwing itself in, let the protests be as nondenominational as possible.

They have now overtly announced their intent to join in the protests.

[Darth Raptor]

FYI Marina I wasn't talking about anyone on this board, let alone yourself. This is more of a general stink I've been noticing in places where unabashed imperialists neoconservatives gather.

[Broomstick]

Even if they are diehard Islamic revolutionaries doesn't mean they'll start a war with Israel. Iran when to war with Iraq after the revolution, not Israel. Yes, I realize this was not exactly Iran's choice, but after that war was over they didn't go after Israel, either. Iran despises Israel, but it's 30 years and counting and they still haven't charged over the Israeli border.

Iran doesn't have a border with Israel. And if they had overrun Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war (impossible, but just saying), they would have kept going.

The point is that just because country A hates, loathes, and despises country B it is not a sure thing that hostilities will break out. Enemies can exist in a state of non-fighting for a very long time.

[MKSheppard]

If they keep this up, maybe this will result in about 3-4 billion dollars of aid no longer going to Israel and Egypt to support the Camp David Accords.

[Guardsman Bass]

That depends on how a post-Mubarak government acts on Gaza as well as diplomatic relations with Israel. If they open the Egyptian side to trade with the Gazans, and cut off ties with Israel (both of which would be extremely popular, particularly the latter), then they might lose their aid.*

* I wonder about that, though. Cutting the aid tap off to Egypt after a democratic revolution would look really bad for the US.

The Muslim Brotherhood is a violent Islamist organization but probably holds the support of close to half of Egypt's population. They would be dominant in any new government, and even if they did not have the power to turn Egypt into an Islamist Shariah regime, could still guarantee that any provisional government considers the liberation of Palestine as its highest duty and goal.

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has renounced violence, and while they're more sympathetic to the Palestinians than Mubarak, Palestine is not going to be their highest priority.

[Edward Yee]

* I wonder about that, though. Cutting the aid tap off to Egypt after a democratic revolution would look really bad for the US.

There's already consideration of cutting the tap as-is, if things go really sour in terms of a crackdown... albeit cutting it off for Mubarak's administration and the army.