Egyptians protesting across the country

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I'd also note that the main unit in Cairo is the Republican Guard, an overstrength armoured division of two armoured brigades and two mechanized brigades and one divisional artillery brigade, outfitted with late-1980s frontline American equipment (M1A1 tanks, etc), which is all-volunteer, and whose volunteers receive higher salaries than even volunteers for the regular forces, consistent service bonuses, a new automobile, subsidized housing, and so on. No comparable formation existed in Tunisia, and it is definitely regime loyal even if the conscripts turn against the regime, which means there could be very substantial fighting before Mubarak goes down if things do head that way.

[Broomstick]

Hmm... I read that Mubarak is asking his government to resign and promises to appoint new people.

Um... aren't the protesters saying the problem is Mubarak?. In which case, the rest of the government resigning doesn't sound like it solve their problem. In fact, it almost sounds like they'd rather Mubarak resign and let the rest stay on in their current jobs....

[Phantasee]

I like to think Obama's speech was pro-protester, where he said that the future of Egypt would be determined by the Egyptians. I get the feeling that Mubarak isn't going to be there for very long, I believe even the US might tell him to GTFO and then try to influence the power struggle to come in hopes of finding someone they can work with. It would look pretty dirty if they applauded the Tunisians for acquiring their freedom by ousting Ben Ali, and then turning around and chastising the Egyptians for doing the same to Mubarak.

[D.Turtle]

Essentially, the US is telling Mubarak that he is on his own. If he can cool it down amd survive politically (unlikely), then everything is fine. If he can't stop the protesters, then he is gone and the US won't help him.

It will be interesting to see what happens today. I doubt that firing his government is going to hel phim - instead it shows just how vulnerable he is.

[Edward Yee]

As cynical (or not?) as "try to influence the power struggle to come in hopes of finding someone they can work with" may be, your take sounds accurate in terms of what's going on, and it seems like the Obama administration (internally) recognizes the PR concern. I don't recall the administration saying anything negative about the protesters or their aspirations, only a reminder/warning to the protesters to keep things peaceful and presumably otherwise "do nothing to make yourselves look bad, even in your zeal for justice."

(Interpretation: "Do nothing to make the neighboring powers fear that you're coming for them next... and don't take that as meaning 'hide your real intent' because we won't take that either.")

[Prannon]

My parents live in Cairo. I just got off the phone with my dad and he said that they are safe for now. I typed up a little bit on twitter and facebook based on the conversation that he and I had and it might give some enlightening thoughts to you guys. I'm gonna try and stay in daily contact with him until this is all over.

Talking with my dad right now. "Everything is A-Ok. The situation was more dangerous yesterday than today. One big company has notified their people to pack a bag and be ready. Military and protesters are mingling. Agreement is to not be destructive, and military won't do anything. CNN and others make it look worse than it is. That's about it."

My dad said that two tanks were passing by their flat, completely lost. They had to get directions to find their way again. All of the uniformed police that were ubiquitous on the streets a few months ago are completely gone. Local people appear to be on patrol. Internet is down, so there's no work for my parents, but my dad is in good spirits because tanks needed directions from a tiny orange car.

There's a grocery store across the way from my parents' flat. The people in the street are anti-looter patrol from that store. They got sticks, metal posts, tire irons, etc etc etc... In fact, all of the shops in the area have anti-looters out because the police are gone, and some shops in the city been destroyed. My dad says that he's very well protected by 10 and 12 year old yard boys for his flat. In other words, "Boab boys."

My dad also told me that his impression is that if Hosni Mubarak had stepped down, the rest of the government could have stayed. That he sacked the whole cabinet without stepping down himself smacks of pretty poor damage control to me, and I bet it's just gonna make the protesters angrier. I guess we'll see.

[Phantasee]

Thanks for that update man. It's good to see some real perspectives. I was watching CNN yesterday and I had to change the channel before I threw something at Wolf Blitzer. They had a guy in fucking Jerusalem talking about what an Egyptian revolution means for Israel and shit. BBC had a guy in Suez with a gas mask because, you know, he's right fucking there where the tear gas is being used.

Wolf Blitzer's incomprehension of the supporting protests in Washington was hilarious to see.

[D.Turtle]

The coverage on Al Jazeera english has been really, really excellent the last few days - very many impressive images, and they have lots of journalists in Egypt reporting from different places.

[Phantasee]

I've been watching the Live stream on their iPhone app. It's pretty excellent coverage.

[Prannon]

Thanks for that update man. It's good to see some real perspectives. I was watching CNN yesterday and I had to change the channel before I threw something at Wolf Blitzer. They had a guy in fucking Jerusalem talking about what an Egyptian revolution means for Israel and shit. BBC had a guy in Suez with a gas mask because, you know, he's right fucking there where the tear gas is being used.

Wolf Blitzer's incomprehension of the supporting protests in Washington was hilarious to see.

I'll agree with you on that one. Arm chair analysts and worry worts drive me nuts when international stuff like this happens. I mean, back when North Korean and South Korean tensions were really high, it was driving me up the wall how people in the states were soooo worried and asking me if everything was alright and wondering if I was coming home and even saying that I needed to leave and get out. The Egyptian situation is a little more serious, but both of my parents were calm and really safe. I personally have a lot more respect for that than anyone who sits around thinking "Oh, well...a coup is likely to happen and blablabla..."

[Edward Yee]

Talking with my dad right now. "Everything is A-Ok. The situation was more dangerous yesterday than today. One big company has notified their people to pack a bag and be ready. Military and protesters are mingling. Agreement is to not be destructive, and military won't do anything.

This sounds consistent with what I've heard from news sources, actually.

My dad also told me that his impression is that if Hosni Mubarak had stepped down, the rest of the government could have stayed. That he sacked the whole cabinet without stepping down himself smacks of pretty poor damage control to me,

Well, the guy DID have priorities... dumping himself to save the regime would have ruined the whole point of heading the regime in the first place!

Is it me, or does the internal (read: Egyptians in Egypt) reaction to Omar Suleiman's appointment from intelligence chief to premier seem mixed?

[MKSheppard]

[Vaporous]

One question that I don't hear asked enough is "Why now?". Mubarak has never been popular, and his regime has never been good for the people. A few years ago during the financial collapse when the oil spikes sent grain prices skyrocketing there were bread riots, but no revolution. So what was the spark that set this off? Everyone just seems to assume its a copy cat revolt following in Tunisia's footsteps, but that sounds like the post hoc fallacy to me.

[CaptainChewbacca]

One question that I don't hear asked enough is "Why now?". Mubarak has never been popular, and his regime has never been good for the people. A few years ago during the financial collapse when the oil spikes sent grain prices skyrocketing there were bread riots, but no revolution. So what was the spark that set this off? Everyone just seems to assume its a copy cat revolt following in Tunisia's footsteps, but that sounds like the post hoc fallacy to me.

I would guess this has been building for a while, and the spark WAS the Tunisia immolation followed by 6 separate identical incidents in Egypt. There are no doubt some people in the background pulling the strings, but for the people the sentiment is 'Tunisia rose up, why can't we?'

[Broomstick]

I've been seeing these signs frequently today:

[K. A. Pital]

Who said "it will be over for Mubarak if protests go from Cairo into the countryside"? Well, according to our news sources, they just did. Suez and Ismailia are now also experiencing mass demonstrations, as is Beni Suef and many other cities.

I'm not sure what can save Mubarak right now, but there are options, as usual: (1) the protestors back down - the very moment they do this, Mubarak wins, or (2) the Army units, which so far seem reluctant both to support the revolt or to actively crush it, take a side.

Here's a rare shot - a police car hitting a demonstrant on the street:


It also seems that the opposition in Jordan, Algeria and Albania - including the left-wing parties in Algeria - try to begin large protest actions right now, seeing as Tunisian regime already crumbled and the Egyptian one is about to. Perhaps the wave of revolts will continue - which is what I wish for.

The Russian oligrachic news are so fun to watch - "Oh, those poor poor tourists!" Well damn. You come to a Third World nation where people live on two bucks per day? You should be ready for such events. The opressed locals wouldn't be waiting for the White Mister to have a good holiday before they revolt. I'm getting sick of these "but think of the White Misters trapped in Egypt!" idiots.

EDIT: There's been a string of news about snipers firing on protestors in Cairo. Well, well. It seems Mubarak is not going to go away the "easy" way.

[CaptainChewbacca]

CNN is reporting the Egyptian political/economic elite are now chartering flights and getting out of dodge, Mubarak's son is rumored to be in Dubai.

[K. A. Pital]

CNN is reporting the Egyptian political/economic elite are now chartering flights and getting out of dodge, Mubarak's son is rumored to be in Dubai.

Too bad the protestors couldn't close down the airport. I heard the Tunisian thugs smuggled out loads of wealth out of the nation. This is why I say - it is best when the revolution is backed by army units who can block ports and airports so that no scum escapes from responsibility for their actions.

[jollyreaper]

I would guess this has been building for a while, and the spark WAS the Tunisia immolation followed by 6 separate identical incidents in Egypt. There are no doubt some people in the background pulling the strings, but for the people the sentiment is 'Tunisia rose up, why can't we?'

The hidden stuff is what I'd dearly love to know. Like with the Iranian revolution, how much of that was due to sound planning and how much of what happened was sheer dumb luck? Someone's always going to end up on top of the dog pile after enough fighting but how'd it really play out? Napoleon, for example, he didn't plan the French Revolution. It wouldn't have happened if the nobles weren't such tremendous cocks. But once it happened, once there was sufficient chaos, once the people who tried to take control had their heads separated as cleanly as the king's, he's able to step in and seize power. It makes you wonder how many times you have someone trying to manipulate things from behind the scenes, topples the leader he's gunning for and someone else then beats him out for the spot. In a non-violent coup sense, look at the 2003 recall election in California. Darrell Issa bankrolls the recall, gets Gray Davis out only to have Arnie swoop in and take his place.

[jollyreaper]

Here's a rare shot - a police car hitting a demonstrant on the street:

Goddamn. The only thing missing is zombies.

[K. A. Pital]

The hidden stuff is what I'd dearly love to know. Like with the Iranian revolution, how much of that was due to sound planning and how much of what happened was sheer dumb luck? Someone's always going to end up on top of the dog pile after enough fighting but how'd it really play out? Napoleon, for example, he didn't plan the French Revolution. It wouldn't have happened if the nobles weren't such tremendous cocks. But once it happened, once there was sufficient chaos, once the people who tried to take control had their heads separated as cleanly as the king's, he's able to step in and seize power. It makes you wonder how many times you have someone trying to manipulate things from behind the scenes, topples the leader he's gunning for and someone else then beats him out for the spot.

Most revolutions succeed because of sound planning. "Sheer luck" is a rare thing. Any of the parties in a power struggle have to plan their ascent to power in advance. Even a small party (e.g. the Bolsheviks during the October revolution) can take power, if they are acting decisively and have a vast network of trusted men - armed or unarmed alike - ready to act on their behalf.

A lack of sound planning or reluctance to act decisively can destroy even the most massive nationwide protest. Look at France and the pension age, and Sarkozy's other outrages. The people went out and seized oil processing plants. They had enough clout to actually topple Sarkozy. France has a working, stable government structure which would easily allow for new elections.

However, they backed down. The army seized the oil processing plants, and soon the government restored power. In a not-so-long time, the protestors were faced with a parliamentary rubber-stamp of Sarko's laws, and protesting became kind of pointless because they lost all their cards.

So revolutions do require sound planning and a great deal of bravery on part of the organizer. One thing to remember is that the government in such cases is always an Iron Heel ready to crush you at the slightest sign of weakness. Any protest which seeks to really replace the government must be as relentless and never-ending as the government actions are. Never stop, no matter how many days have passed.

In the last year I was greatly delighted by the "Day of Wrath" riots in Moscow and other cities. Oh, they were small riots. Hardly much to topple the entire Russian government. But they were regular. And the protestors did not stop, they gathered every month. And finally Luzhkov, the corrupt thief-mayor of Moscow, fell. The oligarchy expunged him, because the protests threatened to become a focal point for wider protests against Putin and Co. It was easier to remove Luzhkov than to risk the protest grow.

And while it was a tactical defeat, it shows something I admire. Relentless pursuit of your goal. And this is what is also good about Tunisia. They were not content with the President leaving. No. All the tycoons, all his relatives and handpicked goons from the government had to go. And they keep protesting to that end. I hope they don't stop until the last of them is out of job.

[ShadowDragon8685]

Do you just get off on watching power change hands, or do you specialize in revolutionary theory, or just really, really hate the ruling regimes in a lot of places, Stas?

[Sarevok]

Do you just get off on watching power change hands, or do you specialize in revolutionary theory, or just really, really hate the ruling regimes in a lot of places, Stas?

You don't like that he opposes dictators and entrenched oligarchy ?

[ShadowDragon8685]

Do you just get off on watching power change hands, or do you specialize in revolutionary theory, or just really, really hate the ruling regimes in a lot of places, Stas?

You don't like that he opposes dictators and entrenched oligarchy ?

No, I can't say that I mind that at all. I'm just wondering which he's most interested in - just seeing regimes change for the sake of change, watching revolutionary theory put into practice, or seeing these particular dirtbags spun out on their asses/stood up against a wall.

[K. A. Pital]

Do you just get off on watching power change hands, or do you specialize in revolutionary theory, or just really, really hate the ruling regimes in a lot of places, Stas?

You don't like that he opposes dictators and entrenched oligarchy ?

No, I can't say that I mind that at all. I'm just wondering which he's most interested in - just seeing regimes change for the sake of change, watching revolutionary theory put into practice, or seeing these particular dirtbags spun out on their asses/stood up against a wall.

Hmm. I wouldn't talk too much about my own involvement with the protest movements in Russia for obvious reasons - that's the private part of my life. I like watching revolutionary theory put into practice, because that's how I learn and my comrades learn. The recent revolutions are the ones most important, because they hold the keys to a modern revolution. Studying old revolutions can only tell you so much because the conditions in the world have changed a lot. So yes, part of that is my desire to enrich my own knowledge and that of people who think alike in my home nation and elsewhere. And the last point, about some bad people being kicked out or put against the wall - that is always delighting. Part of the problem that people have is that they rarely meet these scum people directly. However, I had some experience meeting them - the guardians of the current power, corrupt "businessmen" and "law enforcement" jackasses. They were but henchmen, obviously, but even for a henchman the level of sheer scuminess, let me put it that way, was amazing.

For example, what can one learn from Tunisia and other recent protests? A lack of some critical resource (problems with gasoline, bread, etc.) is critical to setting off a wide protest, while relative stability tends to debilitate the population. If you can cause a deficit (e.g. block gasoline supplies in the entire nation), you have a most efficient lever. The next part that I'd stress is the ability to push forward for your goals and don't stop demonstrations as soon as someone leaves the nation, being relentless. Finally, a lot of the protests seem to originate suddenly without major foreboding. This is because an oligarchic regime, by nature, creates a sort of a stability akin to a rotting corpse. The rot slowly destroys the social protection and no one can be sure when the last drop will fall and cause a massive outrage. This calls for a new theory for the revolutionaries - that of permanent readiness. Keeping your clandestine structure ready at all times, because you can never know. You can't initiate a revolution by storming the parliament, but once an ad hoc protest gathers steam, your organization can rise and use its readiness to further your goals. And of course, full use of the modern mass media - the Internet - and yet have backup, old-style communication means are a must. After a wave of protests the government can shut down the internet and block access to certain news sources. Therefore you must be more efficient at fighting in both cyberspace and real space. Leaflet factories are still hot shit. I believe there's many people observing these tendencies. I believe that's not all we can and must learn. And that's why I applaud these revolutions - not only can they signify a positive change in Africa and the Middle East, but they can also provide pricesless experience for other modern revolutionaries. They are especially important because they have succeeded. Failures need to be examined as well, but there's been scant few successes recently, and this is why each is important.

Even events that don't lead to a fundamental improvement (e.g. Orange Revolution in Ukraine) need to be examined. They are all important. And if one would ask me, would Ukraine be worse or better off without the OR, I would say it needed the OR. The Kuchma regime had to go. Sad they didn't really improve things much, but nonetheless, it is an important stepping stone for those who actually wish to see oligarchy and corruption gone.