Stas Bush wrote:I hardly see how this changes the equation. It created lots of bubble jobs for wealthy finance personnel. Which... got cut down during the banking crisis.
And mostly came back afterwards. This is missing the point though; the UK did not spend a disproportionate amount on bailing out its banks, compared to the US, Ireland, Spain, Japan in the early 90s or indeed any first world nation hit by a serious financial crisis. I personally disagree with the bank bailouts on general principle, but practically the UK could not have taken a stand here without getting slaughtered in international trade. The trend setters here are the US government, the US Federal Reserve and to a somewhat lesser extent the ECB and Bank of Japan. Address the decisions of those institutions, who had a genuine choice, rather than the BoE.
As for finance being 'pillar' of the economy, sure, continue that way. Industrial unravelling in the UK is already going full-steam ahead, from what I gathered.
Allowing all of the banks to fail and comitting the ~850 billion of borrowed money to industrial subidies was never even an option. Reasons include; financial crash causing destruction of the government's credit rating and ability to borrow in the first place, crash of the single largest tax generator in the UK (the City of London) destroying the tax base, EU and WTO rules against subsidy on that scale, hyperinflation destroying the currency, total freeze-up of lending causing more small business failures than you could prop up etc etc. Realistically the UK could have allowed partial failures, done more nationalisation into resolution funds, and spent perhaps 300 billion on subsidies. Much as I'd like to have done just that and spent all the money on 80 GW of nuclear generation capacity, the sector wouldn't have been able to absorb the funds even if it was even vaguely possible politically. Still, 50 Bn of nuclear + 250 Bn of R&D, training, tooling modernisation and infrastructure modernisation would have been nice. Of course what actually happened, in most Western countries, was mass institutional panic that was skillfully taken advantage of by a variety of ultra-wealthy interests to channel money into too-big-to-fail-banks.
Starglider wrote:We'll see if the myth of "post-industrial economy" will live up to reality.
The UK more than anywhere else will gain nothing by active destruction of the financial sector. Conversely, the UK more than anywhere else can direct inward investment into productive capacity
without affecting the wellbeing (and tax production) of the financial sector. This is because the UK financial sector disproportionately deals in handling money from other countries.
Cutting on social spending is not going to remedy the problem.
Of course cutting social spending is not going to remedy the jobs problem. What it is going to do is prevent total inability to pay entitlements later. It is already too late for Ireland and several European countries where the state has raided private pension funds to support state finances (i.e. bailouts, benefits and bloated public sectors). Pensioners there are now certain to be reduced to poverty though no fault of their own; of course the US and the UK are likely to be forced into doing this fairly soon as well.
Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:You people are in denial. You are no longer in any position to do serious power projection. France? Please. They can barely service their current carrier and they have a far more diverse and stable economy than the UK's. Brazil? Theirs are hunking old Brit crap. Italy? Those are largely used as helicopter carriers. They can hardly do any serious power projection. Honestly, face it. The days of the British empire were over for 5 damn decades and the UK economy hasn't been adapting well enough.
Ok, we have established that the UK, Brazil, Italy, France and Thailand are not allowed to have aircraft carriers, by your edict. How about Russia? Only a little larger than the UK and France combined, but a smaller military budget than either, is it fair to say that the Admiral Kuznetsov is as ridiculous as the Charles de Gaulle? India? Smaller military budget than Italy even, the Viraat is even more obsolete than the São Paulo, massive poor population they should be spending the money on benefits for...
So who are you going to let have aircraft carriers? Is it ok for China to have them or are you just an unabashed USA hyperpower booster?
You call that a commitment? I am more under the impression they are holding onto the Falklands to spite the Argentinians.
Of course, the nation's geopolitical strategy is based on 'spite', what else could it be.
aerius wrote:Yup. What people don't understand is that the financial industry is by nature a parasitic industry, every dollar which is "earned" by the financials is actually a dollar which is stolen from the rest of the economy. It does not create wealth, it just moves it from one place to another. On top of that you're taking money from actual productive sectors and concentrating it in the financials where it isn't productive. I just looked up the numbers for the UK, the financials there make up 15% of their GDP vs. about 10% for the US and 6% for Germany. You can't run an durable economy based on stealing shit from other people, eventually you run out of things to steal.
That is broadly correct; I would say that a basic level of financial sophistication does actually earn money by improving overall efficiency, but that's a level far below where we are now (1-2% GDP perhaps). As with thermodynamics though, this is only true for a closed system. The UK financial industry is exceptionally globalised, the vast majority of the capital invested does not come from the UK itself. As such the UK finance sector sucks sucks more money out of the rest of the world economy than its own, and the rest of the UK probably sees a net gain. After all the massively bloated public sectors in the north of England and particularly Scotland are largely supported by taxation of London and the Thames Valley.
It's true that that money that should have gone to supporting industry rather than diversity inspectors, wellness councillors and health and safety muppets. The basic problem there was that Thatcher broke the industrial sector unions (only after they'd already killed about half of British industry), but not the civil service ones. As a result when Labour got back into power and went on their inevitable massive unsustainable spending spree, it was the civil service unions calling the shots and NHS middle managers that got the money.
Yes it would be nice if the UK joined an integrated European defence force, and could reasonable specialise in things like blue-water naval capacity. No I won't support it until the EU (a) stops becoming a massive black-hole of pointless beurecracy and public-sector waste that puts the UK civil service to shame and (b) stops being primarily a French 'force all of Europe to be our bitches and pay for our subsidies' program.
Guardsman Bass wrote:Which is a bunch of nonsense. Do services not generate economic output?
Ironically this argument is identical to raving Lolbertarians who scream that 'government activity is always parasitic, it can never generate any kind of value' (see plenty of those on ZeroHedge).
aerius wrote:A services sector can't survive by itself. Someone needs to grow, mine, or build the stuff that the service sector sells & services. A country going to a pure service economy depends on other countries to do all the dirty work for it, if every country goes to a pure service economy then everyone is fucked.
I don't think there's any danger of the later. The problem is more that the idea that countries can specialise almost solely in tertiary vs primary and secondary sector activities is a globalist one. It has all the inherent problems of globalism in encouraging a race to the bottom, increasing vulnerability to wars (trade and real), relying on cheap energy etc etc. The benefits outweighed the costs for at least the first couple of decades, but that may no longer be the case.
Much of that is funny money that has been malinvested in an unsustainable property bubble (exacerbated by a housing supply bottleneck that's been left to narrow by both the Tories and Labour alike) instead of being put into other more sustainable and beneficial sectors of the economy like manufacturing, agriculture, education, transport, utilities, R&D, etc.
I agree but that's the choices people have made as private individuals as to where to invest their earnings, not the industry itself. In any case what exactly do you think these people should have done? Buy shares in UK companies? Shares looked unattractive after two global stock market crashes in the 2000s, and in any case buying shares doesn't directly aid companies unless it's a primary purchase. Buy bonds? Buy gilts (UK government bonds), even if it supports an even higher national debt? Do you own any of those? Can you say that you invested your capital into 'sustainable and benefical sectors of the national economy'?
As I've said, the main action I think should be taken is specifically incentivising people to do so. Personally I am holding most of my capital in property and precious metals specifically because of the lack of incentives of this kind.