Specifics v. Generalities in polling Obama.

[SirNitram]

[quote]These findings suggest several conclusions about public opinion and how it is formed and influenced. One conclusion is that the big picture—how people feel overall—is not the sum of all the small pictures, or how people feel about the details. It is also clear that emotions tend to trump detailed analysis; rhetoric often trumps information; and that partisanship often trumps rational analysis. All of this confirms that Democracy is messy, and the truth of Churchill's famous remark that Democracy is the worst form of government – except for all of the others.

TABLE 1 RATING RECENT BILLS "A number of new laws were passed by the Congress and signed into law by the President in the last two years, including several that were passed in December. Overall, how would you rate the legislation that was passed?" Base: All adults
Total Political ID Generation
Rep. Dem. Ind. Echo Boomers (18-34) Gen X (35-46) Baby Boomers (47-65) Matures (66+)
% % % % % % % %
Positive (NET) 33 8 59 29 37 27 33 34
Excellent 8 3 17 5 13 4 6 12
Pretty good 25 6 42 24 24 23 28 22
Negative (NET) 46 75 20 52 35 48 50 56
Only fair 23 29 16 27 19 28 25 23
Poor 23 46 5 26 16 21 25 32
Not at all sure 21 17 21 19 28 25 17 10
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.


TABLE 2 FAMILIAR WITH RECENT BILLS "How familiar are you with each of the following bills that have been passed by the Congress and signed into law by the President in the last two years?" Base: All adults
Familiar (NET) Very familiar Somewhat familiar Not familiar (NET) Not very familiar Not at all familiar
% % % % % %
The repeal of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell law that will allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military 80 37 44 20 10 10
The Health Care Reform bill 77 33 44 23 14 9
The bill to extend Bush-era tax cuts and unemployment benefits 72 31 41 28 15 14
The Stimulus Package of increased government spending and tax cuts 68 26 42 32 19 13
The 9/11 First Responders health care bill 56 22 35 44 22 21
The Financial Regulation bill 39 14 25 61 31 30
The ratification of the Start 2 Nuclear Arms Control treaty 37 15 21 63 27 37
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

TABLE 3 RATING FAMILIAR BILLS "Overall do you think it is good or bad that each of these bills was passed?" Base: American adults who are familiar with each bill
Good Bad
% %
The 9/11 First Responders health care bill 88 12
The bill to extend Bush-era tax cuts and unemployment benefits 73 27
The repeal of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell law that will allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military 68 32
The ratification of the Start 2 Nuclear Arms Control treaty 67 33
The Financial Regulation bill 63 37
The Stimulus Package of increased government spending and tax cuts 51 49
The Health Care Reform bill 51 49
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.


TABLE 4 RATING FAMILIAR BILLS "Overall do you think it is good or bad that each of these bills was passed?" Summary of those saying "good" Base: American adults who are familiar with each bill
Total Political ID Generation
Rep. Dem. Ind. Echo Boomers (18-34) Gen X (35-46) Baby Boomers (47-65) Matures (66+)
% % % % % % % %
The 9/11 First Responders health care bill 88 82 93 87 88 92 87 86
The bill to extend Bush-era tax cuts and unemployment benefits 73 89 64 70 71 73 76 71
The repeal of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell law that will allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military 68 37 90 67 78 67 62 63
The ratification of the Start 2 Nuclear Arms Control treaty 67 29 93 66 79 59 63 62
The Financial Regulation bill 63 31 91 54 73 48 61 63
The Stimulus Package of increased government spending and tax cuts 51 20 82 42 54 48 52 44
The Health Care Reform bill 51 11 86 45 56 47 53 43
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.


TABLE 5 RATING BILLS ALL TOGETHER "Viewing these bills listed below all together, how would you rate them?"

* The repeal of the Don't Ask, Don't Tell law that will allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military
* The Health Care Reform bill
* The bill to extend Bush-era tax cuts and unemployment benefits
* The Stimulus Package of increased government spending and tax cuts
* The 9/11 First Responders health care bill
* The Financial Regulation bill
* The ratification of the Start 2 Nuclear Arms Control treaty

Base: All adults
Total Political ID Generation
Rep. Dem. Ind. Echo Boomers (18-34) Gen X (35-46) Baby Boomers (47-65) Matures (66+)
% % % % % % % %
Positive (NET) 39 13 64 37 43 35 39 36
Excellent 7 2 13 4 12 3 4 7
Pretty good 32 10 50 33 32 32 34 29
Negative (NET) 61 87 36 63 57 65 61 64
Only fair 44 54 33 44 45 45 42 46
Poor 17 33 4 19 12 19 20 18
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between January 17 to 24, 2011 among 2,566 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

Anyone whose been watching polls about health care reform shouldn't be surprised. The Health Care reform bill is unpopular. If you poll on what it contains, people like it.

[aerius]

Anyone whose been watching polls about health care reform shouldn't be surprised. The Health Care reform bill is unpopular. If you poll on what it contains, people like it.

The thing with Healthcare Reform is that while there may be a ton of stuff in there that people like, there's also a couple things in there like the Individual Mandate that just pisses everyone off and screws up the rest of the bill. So if you polled people on it, they'd look at 95% of the stuff in the bill and go "this is great" but when the bill is taken as a whole they go "what the fuck is this shit? This is legalized government rape & robbery and unconstitutional!!" or something to that effect.