Globe and Mail wrote:Egypt’s ‘Robespierre moment’ won’t mean instant democracy
PATRICK MARTIN
CAIRO— From Monday's Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Feb. 13, 2011 9:13PM EST
Last updated Monday, Feb. 14, 2011 11:42AM EST
Those who thought Egypt was on the fast track to democracy had better think again. That was the message issued Sunday by Egypt’s official new rulers: The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.
It became obvious to the several hundred protesters still occupying Tahrir Square when the army, moving at dawn Sunday, allowed traffic to once again cross the city’s largest central square (and ground zero of the popular uprising). It was a rude awakening.
When many of the protesters resisted, they were met by force from military police, some wielding wooden sticks, eerily reminiscent of the clashes with the country’s security police late last month.
And the new rules became clear to the rest of the country when the Supreme Council issued a decree suspending the constitution, dissolving both houses of parliament, and making the chairman of the council, Field-Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the country’s head of state.
The council said it would continue to administer the affairs of the country “for a period of six months or until [parliamentary] and presidential elections are held.”
“This is a wide-open term of office,” noted a Western diplomat. There is no date set for those elections.
A spokesman for the armed forces also warned against anyone creating “chaos and disorder” and indicated the council would issue on Monday a ban on strikes and other labour assemblies.
Many opposition figures pointed to the positive side of the Supreme Council’s message.
“It is a victory for the revolution,” said Ayman Nour, who ran against Mr. Mubarak in 2005. “I think this will satisfy the protesters … especially the part related to dissolving the parliament.”
The Supreme Council did say a commission would be created to draft amendments to the constitution and that the proposed changes would be submitted to the people for approval in a referendum.
And it proclaimed that its undertakings were based in the council’s belief that “human freedom, the rule of law, support for the value of equality, pluralistic democracy, social justice, and the uprooting of corruption are the bases for the legitimacy of any system of governance that will lead the country in the upcoming period.” All are viewed as noble principles.
Earlier, the council announced that the current, two-week-old cabinet, led by Prime Minister Ahmed Mohamed Shafik, a former commander of the air force, would remain in place to administer the various departments of the government and report to the Supreme Council.
Suspicions about the absoluteness of the interim regime’s power can be found among many of the young protest leaders.
“It ain’t over,” tweeted one of their prominent commentators on Sunday.
There will be attempts to placate people by various measures, concerned observers say – steps such as the removal of the hated 29-year-old state of emergency law that limits freedom of assembly and allows for arrests without charge.
“Of course ending the law is a lot easier to do now that country is under martial law,” the diplomat said.
Some say the constitutional reform process itself and its promise of free and fair elections will keep many people assuaged. But the biggest bone the council seems ready to throw the people is the prosecution of allegedly corrupt officials of the former regime.
As many as 43 former ministers and party officials now are forbidden to travel, pending investigations into their financial dealings. A “Google doc” was opened Sunday by protest leaders, inviting people to list the Egyptian people and companies they believe warrant investigation.
“This is their Robespierre moment,” said one human rights activist, referring to the French revolutionary who led the Reign of Terror in 1794 that executed more than a thousand former officials who were declared enemies of the people.
“These things are very much the focus of the revolutionary group now,” said an Egyptian business consultant with some worried clients.
Established groups such as the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights already have been developing substantial dossiers on many former officials including Hosni Mubarak and his family.
The kind of corruption that is most prevalent, these people say, involves acquisition of state assets, especially property, at little or no cost.
Allegations that the armed forces themselves may be corrupt in approving mining and oil projects are unlikely to be investigated, observers say.
As far as most, mostly poor, Egyptians are concerned, the chief concern is the economy.
Just as the pro-democracy activists are on the way to achieving their goals, low-paid workers want their goals of economic betterment to be achieved. That explains why Egypt saw a large number of wild-cat industrial actions being taken Sunday at state and private companies, actions the military is quickly suppressing.
But while a truly improved economy is a generational project, political changes must come sooner. Even before the reform process is completed, political organizations will be taking shape.
In a country where one party has ruled for almost all the past 60 years, it will take a while for others to form and develop.
And while no one can run under the disgraced banner of that ruling National Democratic Party, “you can expect people from that party to regroup and adopt a new name,” the diplomat said. In the short run, “that’s likely to be the party to win the next election.”
As for president, “I expect the army will pick or approve a candidate, who will run under that party’s name,” the diplomat added.
“The army has been politically entrenched in this country for 60 years. You can’t expect it to uproot all that power and influence.”
Who are the most likely candidates for president in a future election?
Not Ayman Nour, most observers say. He lacks the following and structure. And not Mohamed ElBaradei either. The distinguished former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has been too detached from the country.
Amr Moussa is perhaps the early favourite. The outgoing secretary-general of the Cairo-based Arab League is extremely popular with the people. A former foreign minister, he was sent into political exile by Mr. Mubarak and seems untainted by the last decade of apparent excess. He could be quite acceptable to the military, observers say.
Though Mr. Moussa, a frequent critic of Israeli policy, would not be a popular choice in Washington or Jerusalem.
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