How far does the Us go to protect Israel? (Hypothetical)

theski · Post by **theski** » 2003-02-26 03:11pm

Its the night before the US invasion of Iraq. Sadddam decides WTF I have nothing to lose and VX Tel Aviv. The death toll is about 250,000. The Israelis launch a single nuke on Baghdad. The Syrians and the Iranians call for a Muslim holy war on Israel, and begin to mobilize. The question is 1. Does this ignite WWWIII or just a regional conflict, or will cooler heads prevail?

Pistolero · Post by **Pistolero** » 2003-02-26 03:13pm

Armageddon, my man. WWIII.

Frank Hipper · Post by **Frank Hipper** » 2003-02-26 03:26pm

theski wrote:Its the night before the US invasion of Iraq. Sadddam decides WTF I have nothing to lose and VX Tel Aviv. The death toll is about 250,000. The Israelis launch a single nuke on Baghdad. The Syrians and the Iranians call for a Muslim holy war on Israel, and begin to mobilize. The question is 1. Does this ignite WWWIII or just a regional conflict, or will cooler heads prevail?

A) You owe me a fresh pair of linen.
B) The U.S. had better be working it's damndest to be preventing this situation from happening. We did a reasonably good job of preventing escalations last time, my hopes are that we'll do the same again. My private thoughts on the matter are that Saddam will back down before suicide becomes his only, and best, option. He'll take as many as he can with him.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2003-02-26 03:29pm

theski wrote:Its the night before the US invasion of Iraq. Sadddam decides WTF I have nothing to lose and VX Tel Aviv. The death toll is about 250,000. The Israelis launch a single nuke on Baghdad.

Israel has a lot of nukes an a maniac for a leader. If the Iraqis deliver anything obnoxious to Israel then there will be nothing left of any Iraqi population center larger than a few shacks.

The Syrians and the Iranians call for a Muslim holy war on Israel, and begin to mobilize. The question is 1. Does this ignite WWWIII or just a regional conflict, or will cooler heads prevail?

At the outset it will be a major regional war leading to a global upsurge in Islamic war (terrorism) against US and western interests. This would be in some sense WWIII as it would be a global religious war fought between Islam and civilization. However, it would be unlikely to turn into a high-intensity conflict--traditional warfare--on the scale of WWII as the Islamics don't have the military strength to militarily invade civilized countries or anything like that.

The only way it could turn into a civilization-ending nuclear WWIII would be if the Russians got involved on the side of Islam. This is not particularly likely as Russian ties to the west are stronger than their ties to the Islamic world.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-02-26 03:31pm

The entire Middle East would be glowing, but I don't think that it would go beyond that. The main wipe-outers of humanity, the USA and Russia, would have no reason to fight each other.

Pistolero · Post by **Pistolero** » 2003-02-26 03:34pm

Enlightenment wrote:
The only way it could turn into a civilization-ending nuclear WWIII would be if the Russians got involved on the side of Islam. This is not particularly likely as Russian ties to the west are stronger than their ties to the Islamic world.

No fucking way this would happen. Ivan is way smarter that that, and as proof all you have to do is look at Chechnia. And you are forgetting the Chinese. They would most surely not be on the side of some religion, but they hate America as well. Thing is, you fuck with Israel, you fuck with the US, like it or not.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2003-02-26 03:47pm

The Chinese don't factor into the armageddon scenario because their nuclear arsenel is too small to seriously threaten civilization regardless of whos side they backed. The same goes for Pakistan, India, North Korea, France, and the UK.

The biggest risk from a WMD exchange in the Middle East is that the other nuclear nutcases--North Korea and Pakistan--might take the opportunity to settle their local scores. This is bad for anyone who happens to be living in the general area, or downwind, but isn't a civilization-ending event.

Needless to say any of the likely outcomes from Iraq using WMD on Israel would leave the global economy in ruins. Glass the Middle East and he price of oil will skyrocket. An unconventionally-delivered nuclear strike on the US or Europe would destroy economic confidence. If the Muslims in south east asia are whipped up into even more of a religious frenzy and create a horde of Islamic republics, much of the industrial base used to manufacture technology products would be put out of comission for decades. When all is said and done, a global depression couldn't be ruled out.

Post by **Mr Bean** » 2003-02-26 04:39pm

Isreal? Launching just one Nuke?

If Isreal is attacked with WMD the only thing they agree on over there is whatever Middle East Country used it will not exist shorty there after

darthdavid · Post by **darthdavid** » 2003-02-26 04:44pm

Yeah, that's like pringles, once you pop you can't stop.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2003-02-26 05:24pm

There won't be a holy war because the other Islamic countries know damned well Israel has more than one bomb. They'll glass Damascus, Tripoli, and Tehran just as easily as they did Baghdad if they're threatened. Pakistan will sit tight and behave itself because India is itching for an excuse to crush them once and for all. There might be an upswing in terrorism, but realistically, how much harder can the islamofascists try?

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-02-26 05:30pm

Howedar wrote:The entire Middle East would be glowing, but I don't think that it would go beyond that. The main wipe-outers of humanity, the USA and Russia, would have no reason to fight each other.

Great. I can't imagine any bad consequences coming from that region being reduced to a giant slab of glass.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-02-26 05:34pm

SUVs go extinct.

Woo-hoo!

Post by **Coyote** » 2003-02-26 05:41pm

Israel's stated position is "we will not be the first country to use weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East." And left it at that. Some 200 or so Jericho-II missiles in limestone caves at certain areas of the country, each targeted for countries that know who they are.

Terrorism would increase at an insane rate but the gov't's would keep a lid on it, even if it meant civil wars. If that happened, then the US or someone else would go in and secure the Arab WMD sites. Then the focus would turn to the Great Satan US. In other words, current status quo.

Russia and Israel actually have stronger ties than Russia and the Arabs. The Arabs are just weapons buyers to them; customers.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-02-26 05:46pm

Israel will be fine. After a successful BC attack, Israel would not use one nuclear weapon. They hit the cities and instillations of Iraq, and strike Syria's military at the first sign of movement. Assuming the goverment doesn collapse, Egypt wont do anything. There dependent on the US to keep there army and airforce moving.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2003-02-26 06:29pm

RedImperator wrote:There might be an upswing in terrorism, but realistically, how much harder can the islamofascists try?

You really don't want to know the answer to that question.

How does a suicide bomber a week in the NY subway system sound? What about an aircraft carrier sunk by suicide boat in the straits of Malacca? More hijacked aircraft attacks, this time aimed at stadiums? A dirty bomb a month?

These people have an unlimited supply of recruits, a fair-sized supply of cash, and no regard for human life. Things can get a lot worse.

David · Post by **David** » 2003-02-26 06:34pm

Huh I don't think I'd blame the Israelis for retaliating, if nothing else Saddam will want to go down being remembered as the man that delivered a blow to Israel. He still has enough saran (sp?), anthrax, mustard gas etc to kill the world many a time over.

Post by **Mr Bean** » 2003-02-26 06:34pm

What about an aircraft carrier sunk by suicide boat in the straits of Malacca?

Ha ha ha
No
We acutal are quite well trained to deal with Sucided Speeders now Inculding KOS zones around all Carriers and they have not made a Speeder yet that can stand up to several thousand Rounds of .50Cal Fire let alone if we let the point Defense Anti Missle Gat guns loose on them

(*Hint Boats don't move that fast with a gaping hole where the bow used to be)

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-02-26 06:37pm

If the islamofascists try harder, we get a hundred Beltway snipers in every major city.

Not something I'd like the nation to go through.

Enlightenment · Post by **Enlightenment** » 2003-02-26 06:44pm

Sea Skimmer wrote:Israel will be fine. After a successful BC attack, Israel would not use one nuclear weapon. They hit the cities and instillations of Iraq, and strike Syria's military at the first sign of movement. Assuming the goverment doesn collapse, Egypt wont do anything. There dependent on the US to keep there army and airforce moving.

Egypt and Jordan probably won't move unless their governments fall. Betting that they won't fall if Israel incinerates a few million Muslims is unwise. For a lot of these people, their loyalty to their religion is stronger than their loyalty to their states or their self-preservation instincts.

Also consider what might happen in Saudi and Iran.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-02-26 07:00pm

Enlightenment wrote:
Sea Skimmer wrote:Israel will be fine. After a successful BC attack, Israel would not use one nuclear weapon. They hit the cities and instillations of Iraq, and strike Syria's military at the first sign of movement. Assuming the goverment doesn collapse, Egypt wont do anything. There dependent on the US to keep there army and airforce moving.
Egypt and Jordan probably won't move unless their governments fall. Betting that they won't fall if Israel incinerates a few million Muslims is unwise. For a lot of these people, their loyalty to their religion is stronger than their loyalty to their states or their self-preservation instincts.

Also consider what might happen in Saudi and Iran.

Massive uprisings like that tend to shatter military effectiveness for years. And huge masses of crazyed infantry stopped being effective several decades ago.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-02-26 07:02pm

Mr Bean wrote:
What about an aircraft carrier sunk by suicide boat in the straits of Malacca?
Ha ha ha
No
We acutal are quite well trained to deal with Sucided Speeders now Inculding KOS zones around all Carriers and they have not made a Speeder yet that can stand up to several thousand Rounds of .50Cal Fire let alone if we let the point Defense Anti Missle Gat guns loose on them

(*Hint Boats don't move that fast with a gaping hole where the bow used to be)

Forgot the anti surface mod for Phalanx, RAM now also can be used against surface targets.

Shinova · Post by **Shinova** » 2003-02-26 07:10pm

If the whole world went up in the situation everyone is describing now, and terrorism escalates to incredible levels, then Ashcroft happens.

The US would go nuts passing Patriot Acts and stripping away civil rights.

Post by **Mr Bean** » 2003-02-26 07:14pm

Forgot the anti surface mod for Phalanx, RAM now also can be used against surface targets.

Bullets are Cheaper than Missles why I mentioned the PD guns

Grand Admiral Thrawn · Post by **Grand Admiral Thrawn** » 2003-02-26 07:20pm

theski wrote:Its the night before the US invasion of Iraq. Sadddam decides WTF I have nothing to lose and VX Tel Aviv. The death toll is about 250,000. The Israelis launch a single nuke on Baghdad.

Israel would not launch just one nuke.

The Syrians and the Iranians call for a Muslim holy war on Israel, and begin to mobilize.

Iraq is hardly a shining example of a perfect Islamic country. Iran avenging IRAQ? Har har har. Flowers more likely. Syria could do what? Die threateninly?

The question is 1. Does this ignite WWWIII or just a regional conflict, or will cooler heads prevail?

WWIII can only happen between the US and Russia, who would not go to war.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-02-26 07:29pm

I doubt the Muslim world would rise up in defense of Iraq. Saddam and Allah aren't really on speaking terms.

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