The Youth Unemployment Bomb

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Questor
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Questor »

mr friendly guy wrote:Actually can the North Americans explain what a public sector pension entails, what you need to do / how long must you work to be entitled to it. Over here we use the term pension as a subset of social security. As a government health worker I don't get a pension when I retire unless I fit the criteria for some other form of welfare. I am entitled to superannuation of which 401k is the closest equivalent over in the US. The only government profession that I am aware of which can get some benefits after retirement, not related to superannuation is a politician. As far as I am concern, I am planning on building assets so I can retire comfortably when the time comes.
Here you go:

I pay into CalPERS (one of the pension systems most often attacked) at the 2%@55 formula, which means that at age 55 I am eligible for .02*(number of years of service credit)*(my final base pay) a year as a defined benefit pension. I get credit for one full year (multiplied by the percentage of my contract I am employed for) based on my employer's work schedule, and (as far as I know) do not get credit for extra months I work doing summer school (but I have to pay in during those months).

For that, I contribute a bit over 5% of my wages, plus my employer contributes an amount set by the program each year (this year it is 19.922% of my salary).

As a classified employee, rather than a teacher, I also pay into Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (known as Social Security in the US) along with medicare, like most people in the US.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

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Wait... I only included my contribution on the monthly contribution calculator, its actually zero contributions needed out to a death age of 80.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by mr friendly guy »

So whats the difference between this pension and the 401k. From a superficial understanding they seem to both work on the same principle, ie save up while you work for retirement, with the money going into the stock market. The only difference (in terms of funding mechanism) is that the public pension can also draw upon funds from the government. How the goverment funds it of course seems to be a matter of debate.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Questor »

mr friendly guy wrote:So whats the difference between this pension and the 401k. From a superficial understanding they seem to both work on the same principle, ie save up while you work for retirement, with the money going into the stock market. The only difference (in terms of funding mechanism) is that the public pension can also draw upon funds from the government. How the goverment funds it of course seems to be a matter of debate.
The 401(K) is a special kind of savings account that you draw down. In theory, if I 85, then I would have run my pension account out, but CalPERS would still have to pay me on a monthly basis. With a 401(K) i'm now on social security alone.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

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aerius wrote:
Bakustra wrote:So your solution is to have public-sector workers cut wages so that they can suffer alongside everybody else, rather than campaign for greater economic equality, or push for unionization in the private sector or anything else that would alter the downward slide?
Good luck with that. If you think the outsourcing of jobs is bad now, wait'll you see what happens when you try to push all the wages upwards. Unless you're going to put in some tariffs and reform the tax code to discourage corporations from moving everything they can overseas, you're going to end up making the employment & wage conditions even worse.
So basically your belief is that we're all fucked, or rather the average person is completely and totally screwed, as apparently it's impossible to counter globalization or encourage unionization and worker's rights in developing countries. I am quite sure that you have constructed a sincere belief system that allows you to live within this cloud of despair, rather than conjuring up ways with which to justify a crude, idiotic, bourgeois jealousy of the proletariat.
Starglider wrote:
Bakustra wrote:So your solution is to have public-sector workers cut wages so that they can suffer alongside everybody else
Yes. If everyone is suffering, the chances of a genuine reform are a lot higher. If only private sector workers are suffering, most of the energy that could be going towards that will get channeled into public sector hate instead. Republicans channel that to distract from the real issues.
rather than campaign for greater economic equality
As aerius says, that isn't going to get any traction when there's a convenient, much easier target. Of course I'd be a lot more sympathetic if any public sector unions were actually saying 'it's not that our compensation is too high, it's that private sector compensation is too low'. I have never seen this statement made by any public sector union, certainly they are never going to expend one drop of effort on general inequality when they squeeze taxpayers for bennies instead.
or push for unionization in the private sector or anything else that would alter the downward slide?
A combination of globalisation and the resulting loose labour market has made unionisation ineffective. All unions can do is destroy local companies and hasten their replacement by non-unionised, usually globalised alternatives. Large-scale political action is necessary, and frankly I wouldn't trust unions even as organisers of that, given their total inability to grasp large-scale issues.
Starglider, firstly, thank you for your horrific butchering known as the "line-by-line response."

Secondly, wait, wait, wait. You're not only a Red Tory, but an Accelerationist as well? Are- are you going to espouse Maoist-Third Worldism too? It's like I don't even know you anymore!

Oh, but then you switch to generalized anti-union sentiments. So are you a revolutionary socialist or not, buddy? You spout off rhetoric about that, but then switch to smug bourgeois superiority over those "working-class types" and smarm about how unions just can't grasp the big issues. So are you being sincere or not? I would like to believe that you just hold schizophrenic beliefs, really I would, but it seems like you're trying to redirect any effort in the direction of hurting people rather than helping them. Frankly, I'm suspicious.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by aerius »

Bakustra wrote:
aerius wrote:If you think the outsourcing of jobs is bad now, wait'll you see what happens when you try to push all the wages upwards. Unless you're going to put in some tariffs and reform the tax code to discourage corporations from moving everything they can overseas, you're going to end up making the employment & wage conditions even worse.
So basically your belief is that we're all fucked, or rather the average person is completely and totally screwed, as apparently it's impossible to counter globalization or encourage unionization and worker's rights in developing countries. I am quite sure that you have constructed a sincere belief system that allows you to live within this cloud of despair, rather than conjuring up ways with which to justify a crude, idiotic, bourgeois jealousy of the proletariat.
I told you what needs to be done to fix the problem. It's not my fault that you can't read. I could go into more detail or use smaller words in the hopes that you might understand it, but frankly you're too busy with your bourgeois rantings to give a shit.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Starglider »

Bakustra wrote:
aerius wrote:Unless you're going to put in some tariffs and reform the tax code to discourage corporations from moving everything they can overseas, you're going to end up making the employment & wage conditions even worse.
So basically your belief is that we're all fucked, or rather the average person is completely and totally screwed, as apparently it's impossible to counter globalization
Aerius just specifically stated an effective counter-globalisation measure. It's still a wealth transfer, because tariffs push up the price of everything that was currently being supplied as a cheap import, transfering wealth from consumers to local manufacturers. However unlike inflation of public sector wages, this kind of wealth transfer is actually constructive; domestic factories get built that wouldn't have otherwise.
or encourage unionization and worker's rights in developing countries.
Overpaying first-world local government bureaucrats does absolutely nothing to advance these goals, so it is a total red herring.
Starglider, firstly, thank you for your horrific butchering known as the "line-by-line response."
Welcome to SDN. It's an informal forum so the conversational approach seems fine to me. If you were writing in essay style an essay-style response might be called for, but you're not.
Secondly, wait, wait, wait. You're not only a Red Tory, but an Accelerationist as well? Are- are you going to espouse Maoist-Third Worldism too? It's like I don't even know you anymore!
Oh, but then you switch to generalized anti-union sentiments. So are you a revolutionary socialist or not, buddy?
I form opinions on specific issues using the best model of the overall system (macroeconomics in this case) that I have. Obviously I'm not an economist, so don't expect any deep insights, but AFAIK no one else here is either so it's fine for debate purposes. I try not subscribe to any particular ideology; political ones tend to conflate means and ends and generally wallow in rationalisation.
You spout off rhetoric about that, but then switch to smug bourgeois superiority over those "working-class types" and smarm about how unions just can't grasp the big issues.
In my experience union enthusiasts can be usefully classified into three types. Relatively pragmatic ones focused on worker rights, utterly selfish ones who care about squeezing maximum pay and hence dues out of their group and fuck everyone else (usually with massive entitlement complexes), and big-goverment socialists / communists who are convinced that more confiscation and bereaucracy can somehow make everything ok. Only the first group is making a positive contribution, but they seem to be outnumbered and shouted down by the later groups. Certainly going by direct-published online material as well as mass media coverage.

There is perhaps a useful analogy here to 'soft power' and 'hard (military) power' in geopolitics. Punitive taxation and massive public sector expansion is 'hard power' in the sense that you do it by force, it causes massive collateral damage (to industries forced abroad, individuals taxed out of the middle class etc), and massive resentment against the instigators. Soft power is the use of incentives to encourage people to do productive things. I am all for a little 'shock and awe' in destroying the worst excesses of the finance industry, e.g. the SEC should be arresting a few hundred of the worst fraudsters instead of letting them off scott free, but to achieve a positive change without destroying countries and starting from scratch, incentives and positive reshaping of the private sector have to be the paramount. To be fair a few private sector unions have now got past the confrontational legacy socalist rhetoric, but public sector unions don't seem to have.
So are you being sincere or not? Frankly, I'm suspicious.
I am being sincere, and these are important issues, but I probably seem detached from them because I've personally chosen to focus on existential risks to humanity instead.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Bakustra »

aerius wrote:
Bakustra wrote:
aerius wrote:If you think the outsourcing of jobs is bad now, wait'll you see what happens when you try to push all the wages upwards. Unless you're going to put in some tariffs and reform the tax code to discourage corporations from moving everything they can overseas, you're going to end up making the employment & wage conditions even worse.
So basically your belief is that we're all fucked, or rather the average person is completely and totally screwed, as apparently it's impossible to counter globalization or encourage unionization and worker's rights in developing countries. I am quite sure that you have constructed a sincere belief system that allows you to live within this cloud of despair, rather than conjuring up ways with which to justify a crude, idiotic, bourgeois jealousy of the proletariat.
I told you what needs to be done to fix the problem. It's not my fault that you can't read. I could go into more detail or use smaller words in the hopes that you might understand it, but frankly you're too busy with your bourgeois rantings to give a shit.
I said that I didn't believe that the best response to growing inequality of incomes was to crush unions altogether rather than working to raise wages. You responded with the quoted post. Now, either you treat everybody you communicate with as so ignorant that they don't know what globalization is or why it exists, such that you can assume that I didn't account for that in "try to raise wages generally or foster unionization", or you feel that these are genuinely impossible efforts. I went with the option that made you less of a jackass. I'm glad you've proved me wrong about that.
Starglider wrote:
Bakustra wrote:
aerius wrote:Unless you're going to put in some tariffs and reform the tax code to discourage corporations from moving everything they can overseas, you're going to end up making the employment & wage conditions even worse.
So basically your belief is that we're all fucked, or rather the average person is completely and totally screwed, as apparently it's impossible to counter globalization
Aerius just specifically stated an effective counter-globalisation measure. It's still a wealth transfer, because tariffs push up the price of everything that was currently being supplied as a cheap import, transfering wealth from consumers to local manufacturers. However unlike inflation of public sector wages, this kind of wealth transfer is actually constructive; domestic factories get built that wouldn't have otherwise.
or encourage unionization and worker's rights in developing countries.
Overpaying first-world local government bureaucrats does absolutely nothing to advance these goals, so it is a total red herring.
Starglider, firstly, thank you for your horrific butchering known as the "line-by-line response."
Welcome to SDN. It's an informal forum so the conversational approach seems fine to me. If you were writing in essay style an essay-style response might be called for, but you're not.
Secondly, wait, wait, wait. You're not only a Red Tory, but an Accelerationist as well? Are- are you going to espouse Maoist-Third Worldism too? It's like I don't even know you anymore!
Oh, but then you switch to generalized anti-union sentiments. So are you a revolutionary socialist or not, buddy?
I form opinions on specific issues using the best model of the overall system (macroeconomics in this case) that I have. Obviously I'm not an economist, so don't expect any deep insights, but AFAIK no one else here is either so it's fine for debate purposes. I try not subscribe to any particular ideology; political ones tend to conflate means and ends and generally wallow in rationalisation.
You spout off rhetoric about that, but then switch to smug bourgeois superiority over those "working-class types" and smarm about how unions just can't grasp the big issues.
In my experience union enthusiasts can be usefully classified into three types. Relatively pragmatic ones focused on worker rights, utterly selfish ones who care about squeezing maximum pay and hence dues out of their group and fuck everyone else (usually with massive entitlement complexes), and big-goverment socialists / communists who are convinced that more confiscation and bereaucracy can somehow make everything ok. Only the first group is making a positive contribution, but they're outnumbered and shouted down by the later groups.
So are you being sincere or not? Frankly, I'm suspicious.
I am being sincere, and these are important issues, but I probably seem detached from them because I've personally chosen to focus on existential risks to humanity instead.
Firstly, if you converse with other people by interrupting them halfway through every sentence, I question your social skills.

Secondly, you're being dishonest and claiming that you're sincere. Let's review this "conversation."

St/Ae: We need to break public unions!
Moi: Why?
St/Ae: Because they have high wages and the private sector will get jealous (already dishonest here, judging by what you say, but I will address that later)!
Moi: So why not raise private wages?
St/Ae: Globalization! You have to make things worse before they get better! Hurting people is the only way to get anything done!
Moi: Why not work against globalization?
St: That has nothing to do with the fact that public employees are overpaid!

Do you see the logical disconnect here? Of course you do, but since you're already spouting ultra-left, revolutionary socialist rhetoric while simultaneously denouncing socialism and unions, I doubt that you will acknowledge it. But come on. You know that you're not being honest, I know it, so let us not speak falsely now (the hour is getting late).

Thirdly, the ideologies that I mentioned are revolutionary socialist ones that seek, in the case of Accelerationism, to establish utopian socialism by "accelerating" capitalism into self-destruction with conspicuous consumption and conscious, insincere adoption and advocation of ultracapitalist viewpoints. Lowering wages to make everybody suffer is part and parcel of that. So I view you with suspicion when you say that and rail against "big-gubbmint socialists", though with a tiny veneer of sophistication.

Fourthly, I find it interesting that you assume that no socialist or communist could legitimately be concerned with worker's rights.

Fifthly, it's even more interesting that you feel that you can take your gut assumptions about and experience unions (essentially cribbed from crude propaganda) and project them upon the whole of unionism. It also dovetails neatly with the idea of sincere, honest workers being manipulated by greedy bosses and socialist agitators into forming unions that only hurt them! How craftily do the constructs of yesteryear worm their way into our heads!
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by aerius »

Bakustra wrote:Secondly, you're being dishonest and claiming that you're sincere. Let's review this "conversation."

St/Ae: We need to break public unions!
Moi: Why?
St/Ae: Because they have high wages and the private sector will get jealous (already dishonest here, judging by what you say, but I will address that later)!
Moi: So why not raise private wages?
St/Ae: Globalization! You have to make things worse before they get better! Hurting people is the only way to get anything done!
Moi: Why not work against globalization?
St: That has nothing to do with the fact that public employees are overpaid!!
Holy fuck you're a lying dipshit. The argument is that paying for current public sector wages is negatively impacting on the finances of the government to the point where services are being cut. We can't raise private sector wages because of global wage arbitrage unless you want to reform the tax code and put in tariffs. There's nothing about making things worse before they get people or hurting people for fun you stupid fuckface.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

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aerius wrote:
Bakustra wrote:Secondly, you're being dishonest and claiming that you're sincere. Let's review this "conversation."

St/Ae: We need to break public unions!
Moi: Why?
St/Ae: Because they have high wages and the private sector will get jealous (already dishonest here, judging by what you say, but I will address that later)!
Moi: So why not raise private wages?
St/Ae: Globalization! You have to make things worse before they get better! Hurting people is the only way to get anything done!
Moi: Why not work against globalization?
St: That has nothing to do with the fact that public employees are overpaid!!
Holy fuck you're a lying dipshit. The argument is that paying for current public sector wages is negatively impacting on the finances of the government to the point where services are being cut. We can't raise private sector wages because of global wage arbitrage unless you want to reform the tax code and put in tariffs. There's nothing about making things worse before they get people or hurting people for fun you stupid fuckface.
Let me quote you guyzos for a little bit:
Starglider wrote:
Bakustra wrote:So your solution is to have public-sector workers cut wages so that they can suffer alongside everybody else
Yes. If everyone is suffering, the chances of a genuine reform are a lot higher. If only private sector workers are suffering, most of the energy that could be going towards that will get channeled into public sector hate instead. Republicans channel that to distract from the real issues.
Aerius wrote:As for US public worker compensation, go back to the link I posted for San Jose workers and tell me that there ain't something wrong when workers can cash out sick days and vacations that amount to several times their base salary.
So we have Starglider insisting (though I believe insincerely) that the only way to achieve economic equality is to cut public wages and benefits down to the level of the private sector in order to ensure change through what is presumably a non-socialist-but-concerned-with-economic-equality revolution. This would involve harming a great deal of people through massive cuts in things like pensions, healthcare, and wages, though where you're getting "for fun" I don't know. Is it a Freudian slip? I do think that this is motivated by an insane jealousy of the upper classes for the lower, yes, but I don't see how you get "for fun" out of that.

You meanwhile, have not challenged this, have repeatedly posted about how public sector compensation should be cut, and so I presumed that you concurred. If you want to disavow this, feel free and I'll no longer lump you two together, except as assholes.

You also haven't really supported your arguments, but since you started ignoring my posts I assumed that you wouldn't bother with any effort so let you off. I see that was a mistake.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

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The "ragh public sector unions are eating America" argument is an over generalization. Not every city is San Jose. What about cities like New York, where the unions band together to give the City millions to bail it out of financial trouble in hard times? And even here, we have that shitsacks Bloomberg beat the union-buster drum because he;

1) Doesn't want to pay the Police/Firefighters their Variable Supplement, which is a reimbursement for $700 million the police/fire unions gave the city under Ed Koch in 1988. He thinks he can get out of it by calling the payment a "bonus".

2) Had certain city employees stop paying into the pension fund entirely in 2002. Why? Because the fund had a surplus, and Bloomberg was afraid he might be asked to pay out more benefits. rather than risk negotiating with the unions (remember this is not long after 9/11, and it'd have been hard to say no), he eliminated the 3% pay in.

3) Lost all the damn money. 30% of the pension fund was eaten up in the financial collapse, and since the city had been skimming interest for years, and no one had been paying in, there's suddenly a huge gap to fill.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Simon_Jester »

Starglider wrote:There is perhaps a useful analogy here to 'soft power' and 'hard (military) power' in geopolitics. Punitive taxation and massive public sector expansion is 'hard power' in the sense that you do it by force, it causes massive collateral damage (to industries forced abroad, individuals taxed out of the middle class etc), and massive resentment against the instigators. Soft power is the use of incentives to encourage people to do productive things. I am all for a little 'shock and awe' in destroying the worst excesses of the finance industry, e.g. the SEC should be arresting a few hundred of the worst fraudsters instead of letting them off scott free, but to achieve a positive change without destroying countries and starting from scratch, incentives and positive reshaping of the private sector have to be the paramount. To be fair a few private sector unions have now got past the confrontational legacy socalist rhetoric, but public sector unions don't seem to have.
In the extreme limiting case of intense corporatism in the government (see US economy for reference) a bit more than that is probably in order. At this point the US would need tax increases just to get rid of its structural deficit withuout chopping the social safety net to ribbons- and can probably afford to make those tax increases; we take a smaller percentage of GDP for taxation than other advanced countries.

While the current economic mess isn't something anyone wants to see resolved by a 'revolution of the angry workers,' it's probably not going to end unless someone does something more aggressive and extensive than what anyone in the corporate management sector would want.

Corporatists will keep sticking to their guns as long as possible: total deregulation, total globalization, no tariffs, no right for the underclass to organize politically (as unions, as nonprofits like ACORN, you name it), flat taxes, et cetera. Because they don't want to admit that the binge is over and that no, the hair of the dog that bit them will not cure them.

So the system's never going to get fixed without someone doing things drastic enough to draw screams from the corporatist faction, simply because corporatism will scream whenever anything doesn't go their way. They've learned to do that as adaptive coloration.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Uraniun235 »

Starglider wrote:
Uraniun235 wrote:The school district I work at hasn't adjusted the pay scale up beyond inflation for over ten years - it's been trimming services and staff for most of that time.
I don't know about your region, but in the US, why would you even consider increasing the pay scale faster than inflation? The inflation-adjusted median wage in the US has been flat (recently, slightly declining) since the late 90s. Why should teachers get rises when the rest of the population doesn't? Is there some desparate shortage of teachers now, compared to the late 90s, that requires higher wages to pull people from the private sector? Of course not, there is in fact a huge surplus of skilled people who could train to be teachers. In actual fact the escalation of public sector pay and federal worker pay in particular contrasts with steadily falling median private sector real wages, giving the roughly flat combined medium. It's true that about half of this comes from the top 5% of earners who probably don't pay enough tax anyway, but unfortunately the other half comes from struggling middle class taxpayers. In short the public sector middle class is being preserved and expanded at the cost of the (much larger) private sector middle class. Yes, income inequality is already too high and still growing in most first-world nations, which is a big problem, but the 'fuck you I've got mine' attitude of public-sector unions is actually making the problem worse in the long run.
Wow, did I touch a nerve? I didn't intend to suggest that the school district should have been raising wages - they're mostly fine as-is, although the non-certified instructional assistants don't make much. I meant to highlight that, contrary to the impression I was getting from aerius (that unions have been pushing for higher and higher wages), that has not happened at all in over ten years where I work (and I don't have information on what things were like prior to that). I don't recall ever meeting a union member at work - whether in the teachers' union or in my own classified employees' union - who has ever expressed a sentiment that we should paid more. The predominant attitude has not been "we want more" but "we don't want to lose what we have".

That said, you asked when a district should "ever" raise wages beyond the rate of inflation. I would respond that, if a district had slashed wages in the face of a recession or other cause of a shortfall, it may be appropriate to eventually raise wages back to where they were if the revenue problem is eventually corrected, depending on how far the wages had been cut (this addresses your concern about overall declining wages).


Also, where do you see the overall downward wage spiral ending?
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by aerius »

Bakustra wrote:You also haven't really supported your arguments, but since you started ignoring my posts I assumed that you wouldn't bother with any effort so let you off. I see that was a mistake.
It's not my fault that you can't do math. Because if you could do math you'd know that public sector pension plan contributions would have to total around 1/4 to 1/3 of the employee's gross annual income for the plan to be self-sustaining while paying out the promised benefits. Look at the payout calculations for CalPERS, then punch in the long run averages for inflation and interest rates and that's what you get. Oh yeah, and CalPERS is invested mostly in equities and real estate instead of fixed income which means they got raped in the past 3 years. I'm sure the rest of California will enjoy making up that $70 billion loss via increased taxation & reduced services.
Uraniun235 wrote:Also, where do you see the overall downward wage spiral ending?
My wife could probably come up with a better answer, but I'd say a few years after you guys start stringing bankers by the neck from lamp posts and your government grows a set of balls and puts the brakes on jobs getting outsourced to Chindia. As long as it's easy & affordable to outsource there's no way to put upward pressure on wages because the jobs will simply be moved overseas. Until you get rid of the banker leeches you can't grow the economy because they'll just suck up every last cent and then some. And while you're at it you might as well add in universal healthcare and social security services like every other civilized country. And get that goddamn tax code of yours fixed up.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Starglider »

Bakustra wrote:St/Ae: We need to break public unions!
Moi: Why?
St/Ae: Because they have high wages and the private sector will get jealous (already dishonest here, judging by what you say, but I will address that later)!
The reason for breaking unions is not to avoid jealousy. The reason for breaking unions is that there are no viable options to actually pay for the concessions they forced from the government in much better economic times. Massive deficit spending is already in the process of destroying the US at the federal level, and at the local level it's often not even possible due to balanced budget requirements. General tax rises are out because as I said, it protects a small inefficient portion of the middle class by ravaging the rest. The only remaining option is taxing the rich specifically, but we just saw how that is just not going to happen in the US. Even though it's the best option, it would still be bad if not accompanied by general economic improvements. Not just because the Republican 10 minute hate against the public sector would get more effective, but also because the public sector workers themselves would have even more motive to defend the giant fraud masquerading as a government, because it's the only way they have to maintain their standard of living. Of course hacking the middle class down to a rump completely dependent on the regieme is a standard feature of dictatorships.
Moi: So why not raise private wages?
St/Ae: Globalization! You have to make things worse before they get better! Hurting people is the only way to get anything done!
Moi: Why not work against globalization?
Both myself and Aerius specifically said that policymakers should fight the negative consequences of globalisation. This is the economic equivalent of fighting gravity though, and it's hard. The simple punitive protectionist measures that union boss brains can comprehend generally won't work - though this is academic in the US of course.
St: That has nothing to do with the fact that public employees are overpaid!
Which is correct. Higher public sector wages do almost nothing for the economy as a whole in the best case (of taxing the rich for them), in the realistic case of more deficit spending and punitive regressive taxation (e.g. local sales taxes), in a deep recession, it is harmful.
Do you see the logical disconnect here? Of course you do, but since you're already spouting ultra-left, revolutionary socialist rhetoric while simultaneously denouncing socialism and unions, I doubt that you will acknowledge it. But come on. You know that you're not being honest, I know it, so let us not speak falsely now (the hour is getting late).
Accusing people of lying is facile and frankly silly. The only motivation I or for that matter most people here could have to lie about public policy preferences in a recreational anonymous forum is outright trolling, and personally I don't enjoy that. People may well be wrong, stupid and/or deluded, but I wouldn't usually assume a machivellian agenda.

The only dishonesty I may have engaged in is acting as if there are any realistic, politically doable solutions to these problems. There aren't; the US and much of the rest of the developed world is locked into a trajectory of debt spiral, ever-growing inequality and inevitable massive economic collapse. The strategies I was promoting are what we could have done, circa 1975 to 1995, not what has any chance of happening in the next ten years.
Thirdly, the ideologies that I mentioned are revolutionary socialist ones that seek, in the case of Accelerationism, to establish utopian socialism by "accelerating" capitalism into self-destruction with conspicuous consumption and conscious, insincere adoption and advocation of ultracapitalist viewpoints.
We're going to have a crash in the fall-of-the-USSR class, but exacerbated by global instability and resource shortage. I would not specifically attribute this to capitalism; firstly most first-world nations are a fairly mixed economy and secondly the bulk of the problems come from massive systemic corruption that make free markets a joke (e.g. large companies can buy politicians to easily destroy small competitors). It'll certainly prove that neither capitalism nor democracy provide inherent defence against corruption, cronyism, decay into fascism and ultimate decline. Even so, systems with respect for individual freedom, rights and enterprise will still have lasted longer and done more good along the way than all the failed attempts at commuist utopias (which inherently start screwed from day one).

I don't know what the world will look like when the dust finally settles, but utopian socialism is ridiculously unlikely (and pretty much impossible under any circumstances).
Lowering wages to make everybody suffer is part and parcel of that
You keep saying 'lowering wages' but this issue is not about wages, it is pensions and health benefits. The 1950s notion of a job-for-life with the employer taking care of everything is long since dead in the private sector and good riddance. I'll give the health benefits a pass because the US is too backwards to have single-payer national healthcare, but final-salary pensions are just a horrible anachronism even in principle. The whole thing breeds clock-punching entitlement complex with no motivation to do the job well (save for those rare few people who are self-motivated and still take public-sector jobs that crush all initiative on general principle).
Fourthly, I find it interesting that you assume that no socialist or communist could legitimately be concerned with worker's rights.
Obviously that is a ridiculous strawman that doesn't hold for any political group or attitude; there are enough people in the world and enough diversity of views that every combination is represented somewhere, including the nonsensical ones. I mentioned my personal experience which includes union representatives focused on worker welfare; this declines extremely rapidly though as you progress up union power structures. It is quite easy to find penniless student communist activists who honestly claim to be concerned for the general good, but it is very difficult to find ruling politicians in historical communist regiemes who did.
Fifthly, it's even more interesting that you feel that you can take your gut assumptions about and experience unions (essentially cribbed from crude propaganda) and project them upon the whole of unionism.
That's pretty much how democracy works. No one person can experience more than a tiny slice of life, we all make best guesses based on what we have seen and in theory it averages out into a good compromise. Obviously that's horribly vulnerable to propaganda in practice, but I personally have spent at least a few hundred hours reading far-left literature, so it's hardly lack of opportunity to make a decent argument. This works in reverse of course; I probably have a lot more personal experience with traders, bankers and fund managers than you, since I work with them and you probably don't. That's why I believe that most of them aren't actually sociopaths and that relatively modest changes to incentive structures could make a vast difference. Though again, as I say, that's academic as those changes simply won't happen prior to the coming crash.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Starglider »

Uraniun235 wrote:That said, you asked when a district should "ever" raise wages beyond the rate of inflation.
Actually I said why would you do it in the US, implicitly in the last decade or so. I am all for teachers etc having their fair share of economic growth, which they directly contribute to, when said growth is occuring. Unfortunately it isn't for the bulk of the US; assorted parasites are skimming wealth out of offshoring, speculation, defrauding pension funds and government-enabled pork barelling and money printing, but even if it was politically possible to redistribute that, it still an unsustainable mirage rather than real growth.
I would respond that, if a district had slashed wages in the face of a recession or other cause of a shortfall, it may be appropriate to eventually raise wages back to where they were if the revenue problem is eventually corrected, depending on how far the wages had been cut (this addresses your concern about overall declining wages).
I agree but this is not the situation in the US and will not be any time soon.
Also, where do you see the overall downward wage spiral ending?
My hope is that this will play out as a much larger version of turn-of-the-millenium Argentina, which roughly doubled the amount of people under the poverty line for several years. Unfortunately spiralling energy and resource costs, and global instability leading to conscription and wars, may render that too optimistic.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Bakustra »

aerius wrote:
Bakustra wrote:You also haven't really supported your arguments, but since you started ignoring my posts I assumed that you wouldn't bother with any effort so let you off. I see that was a mistake.
It's not my fault that you can't do math. Because if you could do math you'd know that public sector pension plan contributions would have to total around 1/4 to 1/3 of the employee's gross annual income for the plan to be self-sustaining while paying out the promised benefits. Look at the payout calculations for CalPERS, then punch in the long run averages for inflation and interest rates and that's what you get. Oh yeah, and CalPERS is invested mostly in equities and real estate instead of fixed income which means they got raped in the past 3 years. I'm sure the rest of California will enjoy making up that $70 billion loss via increased taxation & reduced services.
Okay, I see that you can't read. I asked about extrapolating this to the rest of the country and to public sector unions as a whole, and you respond with stuff about California. Guess it sucks to be Californian, but there are 49 other states, which are not named California. Just as an example, Wisconsin's public employees are underpaid and have less benefits for their educational level than private sector workers in the same state.
Starglider wrote:*A horrific puree of sentences*
Let's reverse this train a little.
Starglider wrote:Yes. If everyone is suffering, the chances of a genuine reform are a lot higher. If only private sector workers are suffering, most of the energy that could be going towards that will get channeled into public sector hate instead. Republicans channel that to distract from the real issues.
Here you said, in essence, that real economic reform requires breaking the public sector unions because they will be hated if they're more successful than private sector workers. This also is making people suffer through economic policies, though you obviously have no problem with that, since you think that security breeds complacency. But this is still dishonest if you really believe that they have to be destroyed to eliminate pensions or to crush the last few vestiges of socialism in the USA, as you have indicated in other posts. No doubt you'll keep playing the game of "that's not what I really meant" in order to run away from your intent to deceive. I don't care, but if you posted that as some sort of manipulation attempt, do keep it up, it was quite funny!

It's interesting that you assume that my comparing your posts to an ideology means that I must be enamored with that ideology. Stop flattering yourself, you'll get a repetitive strain injuring from all that back-patting.

It's more interesting that you believe that snap judgments without the facts are a positive. Most people wouldn't agree, but then again you're a special snowflake much more intelligent than those stupid union bosses, the goddamn proletarians.

It's most interesting that you believe that generosity from the employer makes employees weak and demotivated. I'd love it if you can explain why Japan somehow has better productivity than the US then, when we're so cutthroat when it comes to human resources/employees. Their unions are also more active, and they even have politically active communist parties that manage to win
seats in elections! How can they be a world power and a major economy?
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by aerius »

Bakustra wrote:Okay, I see that you can't read. I asked about extrapolating this to the rest of the country and to public sector unions as a whole, and you respond with stuff about California. Guess it sucks to be Californian, but there are 49 other states, which are not named California. Just as an example, Wisconsin's public employees are underpaid and have less benefits for their educational level than private sector workers in the same state.
If you want to play that game, fine. For all I know Wisconsin's government workers are mostly philosophy and arts majors while those in their private sector are science & engineering graduates.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by bobalot »

aerius wrote:
Bakustra wrote:Okay, I see that you can't read. I asked about extrapolating this to the rest of the country and to public sector unions as a whole, and you respond with stuff about California. Guess it sucks to be Californian, but there are 49 other states, which are not named California. Just as an example, Wisconsin's public employees are underpaid and have less benefits for their educational level than private sector workers in the same state.
If you want to play that game, fine. For all I know Wisconsin's government workers are mostly philosophy and arts majors while those in their private sector are science & engineering graduates.
For all we know you could be a fucking idiot. How does your response address in anyway the point being made? You countered a stated fact with some unverified bullshit.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Bakustra »

aerius wrote:
Bakustra wrote:Okay, I see that you can't read. I asked about extrapolating this to the rest of the country and to public sector unions as a whole, and you respond with stuff about California. Guess it sucks to be Californian, but there are 49 other states, which are not named California. Just as an example, Wisconsin's public employees are underpaid and have less benefits for their educational level than private sector workers in the same state.
If you want to play that game, fine. For all I know Wisconsin's government workers are mostly philosophy and arts majors while those in their private sector are science & engineering graduates.
What game, you idiot? You're the one pretending that California is the whole United States. You're also ignoring the more substantial point that you're extrapolating poorly. You're also making the jump from "some pension plans are poorly funded" to "END PUBLIC UNIONS NOW", but that's another argument, likely to become even dumber. Here, have a graph:
Image

Now, how many of those fuckin' arts graduates have professional degrees? Oh, whoops, obviously private pros are all doctors, while the public ones are all lawyers, who as every asshole knows, are almost as worthless as artists and historians. Especially the public defenders.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by bobalot »

What more makes aerius's post even more retarded is that I have already shown that California's annual pension costs are not the huge problem he made it out to be. Some modest reforms are all that's needed.

It hasn't stopped him from using that same argument to shit all over another thread and advance his "DESTROYZ ALL UNIONZ LOL" angle.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by Aaron »

bobalot wrote:What more makes aerius's post even more retarded is that I have already shown that California's annual pension costs are not the huge problem he made it out to be. Some modest reforms are all that's needed.

It hasn't stopped him from using that same argument to shit all over another thread and advance his "DESTROYZ ALL UNIONZ LOL" angle.
Check your PM's dude.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by aerius »

bobalot wrote:What more makes aerius's post even more retarded is that I have already shown that California's annual pension costs are not the huge problem he made it out to be. Some modest reforms are all that's needed.
And I explained to you why it's the amount which is in the fund that matters. That fund lost 30% of its assets which means future payouts will have to be cut by the same amount or the difference, in this case about $70 billion or so will need to be made up somehow. That money needs to be stuffed back in before all the baby boomers retire or the next generation's going to have dick all for pensions, that gives about 10 years at most to put it all back so it's $3 billion a year for ongoing costs and $7 billion to top up the fund for a grand total of $10 billion. That's over 10% of state revenues.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by bobalot »

aerius wrote:
bobalot wrote:What more makes aerius's post even more retarded is that I have already shown that California's annual pension costs are not the huge problem he made it out to be. Some modest reforms are all that's needed.
And I explained to you why it's the amount which is in the fund that matters. That fund lost 30% of its assets which means future payouts will have to be cut by the same amount or the difference, in this case about $70 billion or so will need to be made up somehow. That money needs to be stuffed back in before all the baby boomers retire or the next generation's going to have dick all for pensions, that gives about 10 years at most to put it all back so it's $3 billion a year for ongoing costs and $7 billion to top up the fund for a grand total of $10 billion. That's over 10% of state revenues.
You didn't explain shit. You assume that this fund wont grow in the next 10 years. You also assume that reforms and caps can't be used to reduce payments. This hardly requires the destruction of unions like you hysterically claim.

You also assume that the full amount before its $70 billion drop was actually required to cover payouts. Do you have evidence of this?

I looked up the $70 Billion dollar figure you keep bringing up. CalPERS reached a peek of $251.1 Billion of assets in 2007. It fell to a low of $178.9 Billion in 2009. No doubt, you got your figure of approximately $70 billion from there. You dishonestly fail to mention the fund grew to $201.6 billion in mid 2010 and is now currently $230.9 Billion (17/02/11).

A shortfall of $20.2 billion to be made up over 10 years. A annual growth rate of a mere 0.8% is required for the pension fund to make it up in 10 years. Most of these funds should be able to manage at least 2-3%. So the chance the taxpayer will have to make up the cost is next to minimal.

All you have shown in this thread is that you are a dishonest hysterical douche.
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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

Post by aerius »

And CalPERS is sitting in 63% equities and 10% real estate. Are you retarded enough to believe that their fund will somehow retain its value when the market takes its next leg down? $70 billion is an optimistic loss amount given that the stock markets have never been more overvalued and leveraged than they are today.
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