Uprising in Libya

[Phantasee]

The ABC/BBC interview was incredible to watch. "Have you seen demonstrations?" "Yeah, I saw some today." "There are no protests." Fucking Jedi? And then when asked if he would step down, he's like, "What would I step down from? I'm not a PM, I'm not a President, I'm not a King." Uhhhh... so you're saying you don't run the country? Not even a little?

[Pu-239]

Gaddafi loyalists have recaptured Brega

BENGHAZI, Libya, March 2 (Reuters) - Forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi have seized the eastern town of Brega, rebel officers in the region told Reuters, the first indication of a concerted fight back by the Libyan leader in the rebel-controlled east.

Anti-Gaddafi forces have been firmly in charge of eastern Libya up to Brega, and some areas beyond, since shortly after anti-government protests erupted in mid-February.

"It's true. There was aerial bombardment of Brega and Gaddafi's forces have taken it," Mohamed Yousef, an officer in the town of Ajdabiyah which is about 75 km (47 miles) from Brega, told Reuters on Wednesday.

Two other officers in the east confirmed there had been attacks on Brega and one of them also said Gaddafi's forces had taken control of it. (Reporting by Mohammed Abbas and Alexander Dziadosz, Writing by Edmund Blair)

The BBC's John Simpson in Adjabiya says: "Two hours ago, a column of about 100 vehicles descended on the town of Brega, which is about 65km (40 miles) west of here, and was being held by a few rebels for several days. When I was there on Monday, there were just four or five lightly armed defenders to be seen. The assumption is that Col Gaddafi's troops will later move on to Ajdabiya, a medium-sized town with a huge military arms dump on its perimeter, which must be an important objective for the loyalist troops. Three efforts have been made to bomb it in the past 12 days. Now the defenders, in a high state of excitement, expect to be attacked."

Doesn't look good

Anyone know anything about the equipment and ammunition available to both sides? How devastating are attacks on rebel weapons dumps?

[Pu-239]

Apparently Brega has been recaptured by anti-Gaddafi forces.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Apparently Brega has been recaptured by anti-Gaddafi forces.

I'm going to say that it's still anyone's game, at this point. The "Free Libya" armed forces are undisciplined militia gangs barely under the control of the professional military personnel trying to whip them into shape. Gaddafi's loyalists have the advantage in training and discipline, and he still enjoys relative air superiority (even if he has to keep it on a very tight leash, at least until he's finished purging his air force of potential rebels.)

[Aaron]

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/HMCS+C ... story.html

OTTAWA — Canada is following the lead of its allies and stepping up its military presence around violence-plagued Libya.

HMCS Charlottetown will depart Halifax Wednesday on a week-long journey to the region to assist with the evacuation of Canadian civilians, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced Tuesday in the House of Commons.

"The men and women of our naval forces, the men and women of all of our armed forces, have been called upon time and time again to make a difference in difficult situations," he said during question period. "We are once again pleased that they are answering the call."

The navy frigate and its crew of 240 officers and seamen will join two C-130 Hercules aircraft which are already in the area and are capable of landing on shorter, unpaved terrain. Canada also has one C-17 in nearby Malta along with 22 military police officers, medics and reconnaissance personnel.

Defence Minister Peter MacKay said the ship carries a Sea King helicopter and is prepared to go beyond simply removing the remaining 100 to 200 Canadians still stuck in Libya.

"The intention here is obviously to provide . . . for the continued support of all efforts to remove Canadians . . . from Libya as well as support, if need be, certain humanitarian efforts," he said.

"As we've seen in Haiti, this is a very versatile platform. To have this type of capability in the region, we feel will further empower our efforts to evacuate Canadians and to prepare for other inevitabilities, whether it's the enforcement of sanctions (or) to work with the international community."

Postmedia News has confirmed that JTF2, Canada's elite special forces unit, has been sent to the region. MacKay would not comment on JTF2's movements but did note that some Canadian troops are embedded within the operations centre with British and other allied forces.

JTF2's role in the region might be limited to protecting Canadian transport aircraft or assisting in a French-led plan to deliver aid to parts of Libya now controlled by forces opposed to Gadhafi.

A group of 22 military personnel arrived in Malta Monday. The team includes military police, medical staff and a 13-member Operational Liaison and Reconnaissance Team.

"An OLRT is a group of (Canadian Forces) experts deployed in the initial stages of a mission to assess the situation, liaise with allies and other agencies and establish lines of communication," said Lt. Len Hickey of the Canadian navy. "If necessary, a joint task force headquarters and other capabilities follows on to facilitate the evacuation . . . from the emergency area to a safe haven."

On Tuesday, one of the Hercules planes, which had been en route to pick up stranded Canadians in Libya, was ordered to turn back to its base in nearby Malta shortly after taking off.

MacKay said there was not enough room on the tarmac at the airport in Tripoli, the Libyan capital, to accommodate the aircraft. It was expected to try to land again later.

Besides increasing its military presence in the region over the last few days, Canada has also imposed a number of sanctions against Libyan despot Col. Moammar Gadhafi and his regime, including a travel ban and a freeze on Libyan assets. The Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade confirmed Tuesday that Canadian banks have frozen $2.3 billion in Libyan assets.

Other countries have taken similar actions as debate over the possible imposition of a no-fly zone and a blockade around Libya continues.

Reuters reported the United States has frozen $30 billion in Libyan assets and was moving ships and planes into the region, including two amphibious assault ships that can accommodate 2,000 Marines.

Meanwhile, Italy announced it would deploy a humanitarian mission to neighbouring Tunisia to provide food and medical aid to an estimated 10,000 people who fled the violence in Libya.

Observers, however, suggest Canada's contribution to any military response by the international community will be comparatively small.

"The reality is we're still heavily committed in Afghanistan," University of Calgary defence policy expert Robert Huebert said. "I couldn't see Canada having a real capability of immediately stepping in, say if a peace enforcement . . . UN action was actually taken."

He said he doesn't foresee a real need for a naval blockade around Libya, noting the country is best cut off by air and land. He suggested, however, that Canadian CF-18s could easily be deployed to the region to assist with a no-fly zone.

Retired Maj-Gen Lewis MacKenzie, however, said deploying CF-18s would be "logistically possible," but "extremely difficult and somewhat time-consuming."

He foresees a more humanitarian role for Canada's troops although even that could be difficult since Canada doesn't have a lot of assets already in the area.

Elinor Sloan, an international relations professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, said the situation in Libya is not unlike the one in Kosovo in 1999. Should the international community fight back against Gadhafi's regime, Canada could play a role similar to the one it played in Kosovo.

"Kosovo was a humanitarian circumstance. It was the Serbian government acting against the Albanian minority and we deployed CF-18s there," she said.

"The entire allied operation was precision air power striking resources of the Serbian government with the goal of getting (then-president Slobodan) Milosevic to change his behaviour.

"In this case, we'd be striking Libyan government assets with the goal of getting Gadhafi to change his behaviour."

Special forces operatives now in the process of leaving Afghanistan could easily be redeployed to Libya as part of a "clandestine" mission aimed at locating targets for air strikes, she added.

With files from Matthew Fisher
© Copyright (c) Postmedia News

Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/HMCS+Charlot ... z1FRqdDJtS

HMCS Charlottetown has been dispatched to the area. Not much they can do but I like that people are being upfront and saying "not much more we can do, what with Afghanistan."

[MKSheppard]

Map to help make sense of this:



I'm worried about this.

Generally, I am against intervention in Libya, because I don't like doing stuff that is all done in the name of international law, etc etc.

But I really don't like the idea of Gadhaffi murdering his way back to control of Libya.

[JME2]

But I really don't like the idea of Gadhaffi murdering his way back to control of Libya.

Nor do I. This is not going to end well.

[Dartzap]

Its just been reported on the BBC that the Arab League, led by Egypt, are considering enforcing the No-Fly zone.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Its just been reported on the BBC that the Arab League, led by Egypt, are considering enforcing the No-Fly zone.

Thank God, they're about the only people who could do that without getting international criticism.

[D.Turtle]

Um, who exactly has come out so far in clear opposition to enforcing a no-fly zone above Libya?

It is mostly the West that is reluctant of declaring such a zone - so far all I have seen from the region are pleas for finally declaring and enforcing such a no-fly zone.

Now, I could have missed it, but I would be very surprised if there would be widespread international criticism of such a policy.

[Agent Sorchus]

Cynically of me I immediately considered that many of those in the Arab League are willing to do this more to distract people from their own interior protests. Gaddafi doesn't have any real friends and would be the easy scapegoat for other nations. Not that I think this would garner much support from the protesters, but it would easily confuse the western media.

[Tribun]

Looks like Gadaffi's attack had been a total failure. All the things I read clearly state that his forces got booted out of both cities. The only thing it managed was, to make the Rebels even more determined to roast his ass.

[Setzer]

It's also a clear sign that the rebels can take on the Army and win.

[Enigma]

Um, who exactly has come out so far in clear opposition to enforcing a no-fly zone above Libya?

It is mostly the West that is reluctant of declaring such a zone - so far all I have seen from the region are pleas for finally declaring and enforcing such a no-fly zone.

Now, I could have missed it, but I would be very surprised if there would be widespread international criticism of such a policy.

From what I understand, it is Russia that oppose a no-fly zone over Libya

[Raptor 597]

Um, who exactly has come out so far in clear opposition to enforcing a no-fly zone above Libya?

It is mostly the West that is reluctant of declaring such a zone - so far all I have seen from the region are pleas for finally declaring and enforcing such a no-fly zone.

Now, I could have missed it, but I would be very surprised if there would be widespread international criticism of such a policy.

From what I understand, it is Russia that oppose a no-fly zone over Libya

Yea, and Jake Tapper called them the Soviets this morning on good morning America. I'm sure that will be all over the Russian media.

[Lonestar]

From what I understand, it is Russia that oppose a no-fly zone over Libya

France is also oppsed to military action in Libya, which means a no-fly zone will be a mostly American show, unless the collection of surface ships off the coast are the ones that will be enforcing it.

[Thanas]

As is Italy, which means the only country with aircraft carriers left to enforce it are the UK (don't have the money or capability) and the US.

Well, Spain also has a small carrier but that one will not do.

[Sea Skimmer]

The UK can’t enforce a no fly zone; its aircraft carriers lack fighters. Spain is far better equipped in that respect, and has AEGIS ships as escorts. Any no flyzone would rely heavily on naval surface vessels to provide radar coverage anyway as Lonestar points out. Best the UK could do is fly Typhoons on epically long missions from Cyprus; and even using every tanker in the RAF I don’t think that could ever work.

However in all reality you don't inherently need fighters to enforce a no fly zone anymore against someone with as obsolete of weapons as Libya; if we cratered all the Libyan runways and blew up the heavy SAM sites then a few Predator drone orbits could be maintained to ensure the runways are not repaired. I don't see that happening, but it would actually work very well because with the runways cratered the Libyans can't call our bluff and try to force us to shoot down a civilian model aircraft.

[Pu-239]

Conflicting reports of Zawiya falling to Gaddafi forces, w/ a rebel officer killed.

Ras Lanuf appears to be captured by the rebels according to the Guardian live blog.

Also,

My colleague Richard Norton-Taylor has details of British help for anti-Gaddafi forces:


Britain is preparing to send advisers to help anti-Gaddafi forces in eastern Libya, it emerged as Nato commanders were instructed to draw up plans for a wide range of military options, including a no-fly zone.

As the situation in Libya was deteriorating rapidly, ambassadors representing Nato's 28 nations tasked military commanders to start planning for what an alliance spokesperson described as "all eventualities".

In addition to unarmed advisers deployed to Benghazi and other towns in eastern Libya - where British officials are in touch with a range of opposition figures - the government has placed on alert air, sea, and ground forces that could quickly intervene in the conflict if ordered to do so.

Typhoon jets would be deployed to RAF Akrotiri in one of the two sovereign base areas in Cyprus, while 3rd Battalion The Royal Regiment of Scotland - the Black Watch - is on 24 hours' notice to help in evacuation and humanitarian operations, defence officials said.
An RAF airborne radar and early warning aircraft is based in Malta where the Ministry of Defence has also set up a forward joint task force headquarters. Officials yesterday declined to say what intelligence they had gathered on the quality and number of pro-Gaddafi aircraft and armour.

A full story on this will be up on our site soon.

[Spoonist]

For those who didn't pay attention back in the day, lots of the stuff when Lybia was embraced back into the international community by Tony Blair and George Bush is on the web.
Satirical pieces like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9pYCLqFSiw
http://wn.com/bbc_documentary_lybia
Lots more if you search. Lybia and 2004 is fun. Lybia and 2006 is almost better.

If you want some light reading here is an article from last summer when Tony was doing some post-prime consulting work. You can guess for whom.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... -scrutiny/

See the brits contacted the americans back during Clinton to get the sanctions lifted. However it wasn't until after 911 and the debacle with Saddam that Bush needed something positive in the war on terror and sent Rice to do the business there. You see with big oil (BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Dow Chemical, ExxonMobil, Fluor, Halliburton, Hess Corporation, Marathon Oil, Midrex Technologies, Motorola, Northrop Grumman, Occidental Petroleum, Raytheon, Shell and United Gulf Construction Company) doing lobbbying using people like Richard Perle it was only a question of time before sanctions were lifted. However the euros got there first BP et al. But still mr G reserved large fields for the US and sent its head of security back then one, Moussa Koussa, before then only known for small massacres of brown people and something minor about being the brains behind some bombs abroad, but after the new deal he was chief informant for CIA on Al quaida and foreign minister. Strange how many AQ agents there were in Lybia to arrest as soon as the US lifted sanctions. Well what do I know.
After which mr G was visited by and invited to speak before congress.
Now those 'elite' troops who mr G is sending to fight the rebels, those led by one of the little Gs was of course trained by the brits as an anti-terrorist measure. Unfortunate that they usually only find domestic terrorists.

There is an excellent french documentary which I don't remember the name of, but it was done last year or so. Which had interviews with Blair, Rice and some other heads where they where all congratulatory for stabilizing the region and for getting Lybia to play in the international community. Something they did so good that mr G got one of his daughtersto work for the UN as a goodwill ambassadeur plus membership on the human rights committe.

Oh, should we mention the help to track dissidents and opposition came from the west as well?

---

But lets forget all of that. What is important is huge investments in the resources of Lybia by europe and a lesser degree the US. All those big oil and construction companies have their investments in jeapordy right now. So there is a big incentive for getting peace as soon as possible. So don't be suprised if things happen quickly now that it looks like a civil war might break out. That would be bad for business.

[Spoonist]

Sweet.

Officials have seized a ship reportedly packed with £100 million of Libyan money and escorted her into a British port, the Home Office said today. The vessel returned to UK waters after failing to dock in the Libyan capital Tripoli last weekend. She was tracked by British authorities and intercepted off the UK coast, before being escorted into Harwich docks in Essex by the UK Border Agency boat HMC Vigilant.
A Home Office spokesman said: "A vessel which had been heading to Libya returned to the UK on Wednesday morning.
"The ship was escorted into the port of Harwich by the UK Border Agency cutter HMC Vigilant.
"A number of containers were offloaded from the boat and have been taken under control of UK Border Agency and have been moved to a secure location.
"The cargo is understood to contain a significant quantity of Libyan currency, which is subject to a UN sanction."
The Government imposed an export control order banning any Libyan currency leaving the country for the next year.
The dinar is printed in a warehouse in north-east England.
It is understood the unnamed ship failed to berth in Tripoli last weekend because her crew believed it was too dangerous.
Reports suggested the cargo ship was carrying £100 million worth of the Libyan currency, the dinar, but the Home Office refused to confirm the exact value.

[TC Pilot]

Out of curiousity, is a no-fly zone neccesary? From what I've read in papers, the government aerial bombings so far have been completely ineffective, which suggested to me that either Libya's air force is garbage, or the pilots are intentionally missing.

I've also read that a lot of Libyan rebels don't want any Western intervention. If that's true, I can't really blame them, given America's track record.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Its just been reported on the BBC that the Arab League, led by Egypt, are considering enforcing the No-Fly zone.

Thank God, they're about the only people who could do that without getting international criticism.

What would be the point at all? The airforces of these nations are garbage.

[Block]

Out of curiousity, is a no-fly zone neccesary? From what I've read in papers, the government aerial bombings so far have been completely ineffective, which suggested to me that either Libya's air force is garbage, or the pilots are intentionally missing.

I've also read that a lot of Libyan rebels don't want any Western intervention. If that's true, I can't really blame them, given America's track record.

Uh France is the one with the bad reputation in Northern Africa, much moreso and for a much longer time period than the US.

[Sarevok]

Its just been reported on the BBC that the Arab League, led by Egypt, are considering enforcing the No-Fly zone.

Thank God, they're about the only people who could do that without getting international criticism.

What would be the point at all? The airforces of these nations are garbage.

Libya is not top class either, especially given their past military history.

A coalition of Arab states should be more than sufficient to keep skies over Libya clear of hostile warplanes.