Uprising in Libya

[Edward Yee]

Commander, USCENTCOM Jim Mattis testified to the US Senate in that US military doctrine for a no-fly zone (NFZ) would require bombing Libya -- albeit targeting any air defense systems, instead of runway disruption -- so the best US military contribution to a Libya NFZ may be in a supporting role (i.e. logistics, radar coverage, AWACS flights) I guess?

According to CNN's Ben Wedeman, at least as of 13 hours ago you had "professional soldiers" (defectors from the army I assume) acting as training cadres for the rebels. Beyond those cadres "trying to organize volunteer anti-Qaddafi fighters struggle to instill concepts like discipline, organisation," no idea how far along that's gotten.

[cosmicalstorm]

Wouldn't it be best to supply weapons and food to the parts of the country not loyal to Ghaddafi?

[Crossroads Inc.]

Wouldn't it be best to supply weapons and food to the parts of the country not loyal to Ghaddafi?

ANY sort of aide at this part could come back to bite us, a popular uprising like this really needs to stand on its own two feet, for the most part. It is a hell of a tricky thing, you want to help,m you want to get this tinpot Despot out on his ass, you want to see a better Libya, but things are delicate...

Evening sending in food and such could have unforeseen problems, and sending in UN tropes will just reaffirm the "OMG its all a big conspiracy by foreign devils!" Gaddafi is already pushing. If someone has a better idea on this I would like to hear.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Wouldn't it be best to supply weapons and food to the parts of the country not loyal to Ghaddafi?

ANY sort of aide at this part could come back to bite us, a popular uprising like this really needs to stand on its own two feet, for the most part. It is a hell of a tricky thing, you want to help,m you want to get this tinpot Despot out on his ass, you want to see a better Libya, but things are delicate...

We're also antsy about sending guns to the opposition in Libya because we don't have any real idea who'd replace Gaddafi if the rebellion succeeds. He's been so efficient at driving opposition underground that there's little known about the leaders of the aforementioned opposition.

Evening sending in food and such could have unforeseen problems, and sending in UN tropes will just reaffirm the "OMG its all a big conspiracy by foreign devils!" Gaddafi is already pushing. If someone has a better idea on this I would like to hear.

The rebels seem to have their humanitarian needs in order. It's the refugees who've fled to Tunisia who need to get more humanitarian aid.

Out of curiousity, is a no-fly zone neccesary? From what I've read in papers, the government aerial bombings so far have been completely ineffective, which suggested to me that either Libya's air force is garbage, or the pilots are intentionally missing.

Indications are that the Libyan pilots are intentionally missing. Either because the Libyan pilots are loath to kill their fellow countrymen, or they are being constrained by rules of engagement written to ensure Gaddafi's loyalists have something left to capture. If it's the former, then Gaddafi can solve it by shooting people until the surviving pilots get the point. Needless to say, that won't be good for the rebellion's long-term chances; which is why the rebels are pushing for an enforced no-fly zone.

[TC Pilot]

Uh France is the one with the bad reputation in Northern Africa, much moreso and for a much longer time period than the US.

I'm betting France's reputation wouldn't extend much beyond Algeria. That aside, it's the United States, not France, that is currently occupying two countries for almost a decade now, all ostensibly in the name of freedom and democracy. I seriously doubt that is something the people of Libya would want to go through.

[Edward Yee]

Indications are that the Libyan pilots are intentionally missing. Either because the Libyan pilots are loath to kill their fellow countrymen, or they are being constrained by rules of engagement written to ensure Gaddafi's loyalists have something left to capture. If it's the former, then Gaddafi can solve it by shooting people until the surviving pilots get the point. Needless to say, that won't be good for the rebellion's long-term chances; which is why the rebels are pushing for an enforced no-fly zone.

From what I understand another reason for a NFZ, whether or not the rebels realize this, is because apparently the Libyan Air Force would need a secure airspace to "properly" release chemical weapons from the air, as opposed to just making bombing runs.

EDIT: Incidentally, according to the Guardian (UK) live blog, "Arab media reports" claimed that some of the 'loyalist' pilots were Serbian.

[Block]

Uh France is the one with the bad reputation in Northern Africa, much moreso and for a much longer time period than the US.

I'm betting France's reputation wouldn't extend much beyond Algeria. That aside, it's the United States, not France, that is currently occupying two countries for almost a decade now, all ostensibly in the name of freedom and democracy. I seriously doubt that is something the people of Libya would want to go through.

Rwanda, the CAR (ongoing for a lot longer than either war the US has been involved in), Chad, Tunisia, Morrocco... France has a shitty reputation in all of them, they just use a screen of contractors and corporations to avoid official responsibility.

[Edward Yee]

From the BBC's live feed for today, 1948 here referring to time of day (dunno whether UK time or Libyan time):

1948: On the political front, a 30-member rebel group calling itself the National Council in eastern Libya has met to issue its first formal proclamation. It is headed by one of the first high-profile figures to come out against Col Gaddafi, former Justice Minister Mustafa Abdel Jalil. Speaking in Benghazi, he said the council was now Libya's sole legitimate representative. While it did not want foreign troops on Libyan soil, he added, it was calling for outside powers to carry out air-strikes to help dislodge Colonel Gaddafi from power.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Libya is not top class either, especially given their past military history.

A coalition of Arab states should be more than sufficient to keep skies over Libya clear of hostile warplanes.

You mean they know which direction to shoot?

[Thanas]

Germany is sending three warships to Tunesia, apparently to help with the evacuation effort of refugees. Likewise, the USA is sending two Hercules transporters to transport supplies.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

The rebel advance has stalled.

Libyan helicopter gunships fired on a rebel force advancing west toward the capital, Tripoli, along the country's Mediterranean coastline Sunday, and forces loyal to leader Moammar Gadhafi fought intense ground battles with the rival fighters.

The opposition force pushed out of the rebel-held eastern half of Libya late last week for the first time and have been cutting a path west toward Tripoli. On the way, they secured control of two important oil ports at Brega and Ras Lanuf. By Sunday, the rebels were advancing farther west when they were hit by the helicopter fire and confrontations with ground forces.

[The rebels] feel that this is a fight to the very death.

- NPR's Lourdes Garcia-Navarro, reporting from Ras Lanuf, Libya

Fierce ground battles were raging around the front line between Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, which is about 30 miles to the west. Gadhafi loyalists retook Bin Jawad, about 110 miles east of Gadhafi's hometown of Sirte, which could prove to be a decisive battleground.

The rebel march west stalled in the tiny hamlet, where they were ambushed by Gadhafi's forces. The rebels say they were outgunned, outmanned and forced to retreat.

Mohammed Ibrahim, a wounded fighter, his white shirt stained red and his arm dripping with blood, said the fighting has been brutal.

"The firing came from balconies from the houses, bullets were coming from all sides" he said. "Gadhafi's forces and the traitors in the city of Bin Jawad attacked us."

He alleged that Gadhafi's forces gave locals weapons and money to turn on the rebels. Others disputed his account, saying Gadhafi's troops commandeered the homes they fired at the rebels from.

There is a feeling in Bin Jawad that this is a fight to the death. The rebels say they know that if they give ground, Gadhafi will try to wipe them out.

"He who dies, dies," Ibrahim said. "We will keep advancing. We won't surrender; either victory or death."

In the city of Ras Lanuf, the mood in the city has gone from jubilation to determination.

"We've seen ambulances streaming from the front," Garcia-Navarro said. "I've seen injured men with blood dripping down the front of them."

The rebels told Garcia-Navarro that locals joined pro-Gadhafi forces to ambush them in the town of Bin Jawad. "There are very strong clashes taking place with Gadhafi forces there," she said. "The mood here right now is that they're not even sure that they can keep Ras Lanuf."

AP reporters witnessed air attacks by helicopters on the rebel forces and heavy fighting on the ground. A warplane also attacked a small military base at Ras Lanuf and destroyed three hangars and a small building. Regime forces shelled rebel positions at Ras Lanuf with rockets and artillery. Ambulances sped toward the town and rebels moved trucks carrying multi-rocket launchers toward the front lines.

Garcia-Navarro said it's a setback for rebels who had intended to push toward Sirte, a Gadhafi stronghold. Now the rebel army is faced with what to do next.

"This is a disparate group of people," Garcia-Navarro said. "They don't seem to have any central command; they're using weapons they've looted from military bases."

There's a feeling among the rebels that if they do not win this fight, Gadhafi will use all means at his disposal to crush them, Garcia-Navarro reported. "They feel that this is a fight to the very death."

An Uprising Turning To Civil War

The Libyan uprising that began Feb. 15, inspired by rebellions in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, has been sliding toward a civil war that could be prolonged, with rebels backed by mutinous army units and arms seized from storehouses going on the offensive to try to topple Gadhafi's 41-year-old regime. At the same time, pro-Gadhafi forces have tried to conduct counteroffensives to retake the oil port of Brega and in the rebel-held city of Zawiya, west of Tripoli — where bloody street battles were reported over the weekend.

The U.S. has moved military forces closer to Libya's shores to put military muscle behind its demand for Gadhafi to step down immediately. But Washington has expressed wariness about talk of imposing a "no fly" zone over the North African nation to prevent the Libyan leader from using his warplanes to attack the population.

At the same time, the U.N. has imposed sanctions, and Libya's oil production has been crippled by the unrest. The turmoil has caused oil prices to spike on international markets.

Hundreds, perhaps thousands, have died in the violence with tight restrictions on media making it near impossible to get an accurate tally.

The rebels headquartered in the main eastern city of Benghazi have set up an interim governing council that is urging international airstrikes on Gadhafi's strongholds and forces.

Gunfire In Tripoli

In Tripoli, the city of 2 million that is most firmly in Gadhafi's grip, residents awoke before dawn to the crackle of unusually heavy and sustained gunfire that lasted for at least two hours.

Some of the gunfire was heard around the sprawling Bab al-Aziziya military camp where Gadhafi lives, giving rise to speculation that there may have been some sort of internal fighting within the forces defending the Libyan leader inside his fortress-like barracks. Gadhafi's whereabouts were unknown.

Libyan authorities tried to explain the unusually heavy gunfire by saying it was a celebration of the regime taking back Ras Lanuf near the rebel-held east and the city of Misrata close to Tripoli.

Despite those claims, AP reporters saw ongoing battles still in progress in Ras Lanuf hours after the claim of victory; residents of Misrata said the city remained in opposition hands.

After the gunfire eased in the early morning, thousands of Gadhafi's supporters poured into Tripoli's central square for a rally, waving green flags, firing guns in the air, and holding up banners in support of the regime. Hundreds drove past Gadhafi's residence, waving flags and cheering. Armed men in plainclothes were standing at the gates, also shooting in the air.

Key Cities Become Battlegrounds

Over the weekend, residents of Zawiya, a city of some 200,000 people that is 30 miles west of Tripoli, said pro-Gadhafi forces stormed in to try to break the control of rebels over the area. Zawiya was the city closest to the capital held by the opposition.

Members of the elite Khamis Brigade, named for one of Gadhafi's sons who commands it, had been massed outside Zawiya for days. Residents said Saturday that a large number of tanks rolled into the city and many were killed and wounded in the counteroffensive.

Libya's Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Qaid claimed on Saturday that "99 percent" of Zawiya is under government control. The AP made repeated attempts to reach Zawiya residents by phone on Sunday, but the phones were turned off.

NPR's David Greene, who is on the Tunisian side of the Libya-Tunisia border, tells NPR's Guy Raz that it's unclear who really controls the city.

In rebel-held Misrata, residents said pro-Gadhafi forces attacked the city 120 miles east of Tripoli late Sunday morning, shelling the downtown area with mortars and tank artillery.

They said the shelling began at 11:30 a.m. and that the rebels were fighting back with rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft guns.

A doctor reached by the AP in the city's main hospital said the facility's stores caught fire from the shelling and that fire fighters were now trying to put out the blaze.

The residents said the shelling was almost over by early afternoon but they had no reports on casualties or damage.

The residents and the doctor spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared reprisals.

British Special Forces Reported Captured

U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said Sunday that a small British diplomatic team left Libya after running into a problem while on a mission to try to talk to rebels in the eastern part of the country

The Foreign Office declined to comment on reports earlier in the day the team included special forces soldiers who had been detained in Benghazi by opponents of Gadhafi's regime.

"The team went to Libya to initiate contacts with the opposition," Hague said in a statement. "They experienced difficulties, which have now been satisfactorily resolved."

Earlier, Hague echoed Defense Minister Liam Fox in telling the BBC it would be inappropriate to comment on an article in Britain's Sunday Times newspaper that soldiers were captured by rebel forces when a secret mission to put British diplomats in touch with leading opponents of Libya's embattled leader went awry.

When pressed on whether the U.K. diplomatic team was in danger, Fox reiterated that the government is in contact with the diplomatic team.

"It is a very difficult situation to be able to understand in detail," he said. "There are a number of different opposition groups to Col. Gadhafi in Libya who do seem relatively disparate."

The Sunday Times reported that up to eight special forces soldiers, armed but in plain clothes, were captured while escorting a junior British diplomat through rebel-held territory in eastern Libya.

The special forces intervention angered Libyan opposition figures who ordered the soldiers to be locked up on a military base, the newspaper reported.

Sounds like Gaddafi's forces are getting their shit together, and he's starting to get a handle on his little problem of his air forces missing their targets. My optimism regarding the rebellion has been waning the longer this drags on. Time benefits Gaddafi far more than it does the rebels, since having more time gives him longer to ferret out everyone in his forces who's not as loyal to him as he'd like.

[K. A. Pital]

Well, a civil war can be protracted. Especially in a place like Africa.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Well, a civil war can be protracted. Especially in a place like Africa.

Or it gets split between East and West Libya.

[Big Phil]

I keep reading articles that the "US is under pressure to intervene in Libya," but I'm never able to figure out exactly who is pressuring the US to intervene. Is it the UN, NATO, the Libyan rebels, the rest of the Muslim world, folks in the US? Because so far as I can tell, other than asking for weapons, the Libyan rebels haven't been asking the US to help them, and Europe/NATO/the UN are busy wringing their hands and hoping that the US will act so they don't have to.

[Spoonist]

Lots of pressure comes from the companies who have invested in Libya. Like big oil. They don't necessarily want to get rid of mr G, but rather they want a return to business as usual as soon as possible. Add to that the oil price rising from this which puts a lot of pressure anyway.
This means that both in the US and EU there is lot of talks how to handle the situation. It can't be allowed to bog down into a protracted civil war, so it might be necessary to step in and resolve it one way or another. However it would be political suicide to be seen to actively help mr G, so it's more politically OK to help the rebels.

[Phantasee]

Libyan oil production is usually 1.3 million barrels per day. Last week it was 600,000/day. There's your pressure.

[Falarica]

BBC News Team detained, beaten by Gaddafi's Security Forces

Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi's security forces detained and beat up a BBC news team who were trying to reach the strife-torn western city of Zawiya.

The three were beaten with fists, knees and rifles, hooded and subjected to mock executions by members of Libya's army and secret police.

The men were detained on Monday and held for 21 hours, but have now flown out of Libya.

Government forces are in a fierce fight to wrest Zawiya from rebel control.

Artillery and tanks have pounded the city - which lies 50km (30 miles) from the capital Tripoli - over the last four days.
'Gun against neck'

The BBC team showed their identification when they were detained at an army roadblock on Monday.
Continue reading the main story
“There was evidence of torture on the [other detainees'] faces and bodies”
Feras Killani
BBC Arabic correspondent

They had been seeking, like many journalists, to get around government restrictions by reaching besieged Zawiya.

The three of them were taken to a huge military barracks in Tripoli, where they were blindfolded, handcuffed and beaten.

One of the three, Chris Cobb-Smith, said: "We were lined up against the wall. I was the last in line - facing the wall.

"I looked and I saw a plain-clothes guy with a small sub-machine gun. He put it to everyone's neck. I saw him and he screamed at me.

"Then he walked up to me, put the gun to my neck and pulled the trigger twice. The bullets whisked past my ear. The soldiers just laughed."

A second member of the team - Feras Killani, a correspondent of Palestinian descent - is said to have been singled out for repeated beatings.

Their captors told him they did not like his reporting of the Libyan popular uprising and accused him of being a spy.

The third member of the team, cameraman Goktay Koraltan, said they were all convinced they were going to die.

During their detention, the BBC team saw evidence of torture against Libyan detainees, many of whom were from Zawiya.
'Abusive treatment'

Koraltan said: "I cannot describe how bad it was. Most of them [other detainees] were hooded and handcuffed really tightly, all with swollen hands and broken ribs. They were in agony. They were screaming."
Continue reading the main story
Libya conflict in maps

Killani said: "Four of them [detainees] were in a very bad situation. There was evidence of torture on their faces and bodies. One of them said he had at least two broken ribs. I spent at least six hours helping them drink, sleep, urinate and move from one side to another."

A senior Libyan government official later apologised for the BBC team's ordeal.

But the BBC said in a statement that it "strongly condemns this abusive treatment".

"The safety of our staff is our primary concern especially when they are working in such difficult circumstances and it is essential that journalists working for the BBC, or any media organisation, are allowed to report on the situation in Libya without fear of attack," said the statement from Liliane Landor, languages controller of BBC Global News.

"Despite these attacks, the BBC will continue to cover the evolving story in Libya for our audiences both inside and outside the country."
Rebel bounty

Government forces have been mounting a strong fightback against the rebels who rose up in mid-February to end Col Gaddafi's 41 years in power.

The main square of Zawiya reportedly changed hands twice on Wednesday in the fighting between pro-Gaddafi forces and the insurgents.


Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen: We have decided to extend our surveillance

State TV reported that the army had retaken Zawiya, and showed pictures of what it said were residents staging a pro-Gaddafi rally.

On the eastern front around the Mediterranean oil port of Ras Lanuf, rebels retreated in the face of heavy government shelling and ongoing air strikes, amid reports that oil facilities were blown up.

Col Gaddafi also launched a diplomatic offensive, dispatching envoys overseas on the eve of a summit by Nato defence ministers in Brussels.

High-ranking members of the Libyan leader's inner circle were sent to Cairo, Brussels, Lisbon and Malta to approach government officials.

The Libyan government meanwhile offered a reward for the capture of rebel leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the ex-justice minister.

The amount was 500,000 Libyan dinars ($400,000; £250,000).

[Eulogy]

Are they trying to get the British to bomb their worthless sadistic shitstained asses? They've just shown what monsters they are to the British public at least.

Gadaffi getting his shit together won't matter when foreigners start howling for his entrails. A PR depertment, he does not have (likely because he executed them).

[Lonestar]

Are they trying to get the British to bomb their worthless sadistic shitstained asses?

How would the British do so? The existing British government just neutered their ability to do so by doing away with the RNs strike carrier.

[Eulogy]

Are they trying to get the British to bomb their worthless sadistic shitstained asses?

How would the British do so? The existing British government just neutered their ability to do so by doing away with the RNs strike carrier.

Did I say the British had no choice but to bomb Gadzooks? Just because

[Eulogy]

Are they trying to get the British to bomb their worthless sadistic shitstained asses?

How would the British do so? The existing British government just neutered their ability to do so by doing away with the RNs strike carrier.

Did I say the British had no choice but to bomb Gadzooks? Just because

Ghetto Edit: the British got rid of their carrier doesn't mean they're helpless. Not to mention that John Sixpack wil likely want Gadzooks punished, and the more journalists Gadzooks abuses, kills, and does Bad Stuff to, the more likely it is that the UK will retaliate.

[That NOS Guy]

Ghetto Edit: the British got rid of their carrier doesn't mean they're helpless. Not to mention that John Sixpack wil likely want Gadzooks punished, and the more journalists Gadzooks abuses, kills, and does Bad Stuff to, the more likely it is that the UK will retaliate.

What exactly are they going to bomb with, and from where? More importantly, how does that improve the position of the detained?

[Setzer]

Do they have anything that can reach Libya from Gibraltar?

[Lonestar]

Did I say the British had no choice but to bomb Gadzooks? Just because

So why did you even mention it, dumbass?

I'm just pointing out that the UK doesn't have the wherewithal to take signifigant military action against Libya, and that is LARGELY the fault of the sitting UK government. It's why it's so funny when the UK PM talks about needing some kind of military action, but as France has already said that they are opposed to military action that really means "Uh well can we have a CVN or possibly Italian and Spanish carrier do the leg work. We can't because we got rid of our Strike carrier. Whoops!"

[MarshalPurnell]

France's position has been hardening rather significantly of late. Part of the softer stance was almost certainly due to the transition at the Foreign Ministry, where Alain Juppe took over just as Libya exploded due to the former Minister stepping down over ties to Tunisia. It now seems that they are cooperating with the British in pressing stiffer measures on the EU and drawing up a no-fly zone resolution in the UN. The BBC is now reporting that Sarkozy's office issued a press release indicating that France would now recognize the Transitional Council in Benghazi as the "sole legitimate representative" of the Libyan people, which suggests a severing of relations with Tripoli. They seem quite out in front of the rather tepid response from Obama.

Said Transitional Council has called (seems to now be screaming) for a no-fly zone and air strikes on Qaddafi's forces, and it seems likely that many Arab countries would actually support it. Certainly the Gulf States have been pushing for that limited intervention and it seems likely that both the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference might do so. Getting something through the UN is the main challenge, though Russia's new embargo on exports of weapons to Libya suggests they may be moving to a position that will not result in a veto. What the Chinese would do then is up in the air, since they traditionally prefer to let Russia lead the way in the Security Council when these kinds of issues come up. And of course NATO will almost certainly follow a British-French-American line even without a UN resolution, as it has before in Kosovo; a Security Council mandate would help enormously but is scarcely necessary or even important if the Libyan rebels and Arab regional organizations and governments give political support to such an operation.

The reports that the Libyan Army used heavy firepower very freely to finally crush opposition in Zawiya may provide some impetus for action. A pretext. At this point the West collectively has made it too obvious we want Qaddafi to go to ever work with his regime again, so letting him claw his way back into power over a mountain of corpses just isn't an option. Further dithering only drives up the ultimate cost of pushing him out and attenuates the potential effect of his toppling on events elsewhere in the Middle East.