BBCChina security tight after new protest calls
China has mounted a huge security operation in the capital in response to renewed online calls for protests.
Anonymous postings had urged people to stroll silently in areas of major cities, as a way of calling for change.
The BBC's Damian Grammaticas in Beijing says crowds of shoppers were out but it was not clear if any were protesters.
The massive police deployments are being seen as a sign of the Communist Party's nervousness at the civil unrest and revolutions across the Arab world.
The security blanket thrown over the parts of Beijing on Sunday afternoon was extraordinary, our correspondent says.
This was the third week of calls for protests and the anonymous posts urged people to take a walk through Xidan, a busy shopping area.
At Xidan and another shopping area, Wangfujing, there were hundreds of uniformed police; men posted every few yards. Reporters were banned from filming or interviewing anyone.
Data signals on mobile phones were blocked and everywhere were huge numbers of plain clothes security men; wearing ear pieces, watching everything, our correspondent reports.
He says uniformed police politely checked his identity documents - in contrast to the previous weekend when the BBC team was taken away violently by plain clothes officers.
In Zhongguancun near Peking University, police also closed down the subway and mobile phone networks, and police helicopters were reported hovering overhead.
Online messages said there may have been a planned gathering of students there.
In Shanghai, at least 17 foreign journalists were detained at the protest site, People's Square, for not having permission to be there.
'The wrong idea'
Meanwhile, in a more hardline interpretation of current reporting rules, officials said that foreign reporters must seek government permission to conduct interviews in Beijing.
At a news conference, Li Honghai, vice-director of Beijing's Foreign Affairs Office, said reporters must apply for government permission before carrying out any news gathering in the city centre.
Beijing officials at the briefing denounced the protest calls as an attempt to undermine China's stability.
"All clear-minded people will know that these people have chosen the wrong place and have the wrong idea.
"The things they want to see take place have not and cannot occur in Beijing," said city government spokeswoman Wang Hui.
China's government is aware there are many possible reasons for popular discontent.
In his speech at the opening of the annual National People's Congress on Saturday, Premier Wen Jiabao said there were still fundamental issues the government must solve, which he said the masses felt strongly about.
Among the issues he listed were inflation, exorbitant house prices, land appropriations and house demolitions by the government and rampant corruption.
"We must make improving the people's lives a pivot linking reform, development and stability... and make sure people are content with their lives and jobs, society is tranquil and orderly and the country enjoys long-term peace and stability," Mr Wen said.
He made no mention of the unrest in the Middle East.
Security Clampdown in Beijing.
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Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Things seem to be stirring in the People's Republic of China...
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'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor
'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
The Chinese stand a good chance of riding something like this out.
On the one hand the machinery of state oppression is better developed because there's a regime to be loyal to, not just a single man.
On the other hand, government in China has at least a tradition of promoting competence and good management. So when someone talks to the Chinese government about how corruption and policies that devastate the masses' private property are a problem, they're more likely to take that seriously than someone like Moammar Qaddafi. Because Qaddafi's interests in his own country are more strictly limited to his ability to rule it and enrich himself in doing so.
On the one hand the machinery of state oppression is better developed because there's a regime to be loyal to, not just a single man.
On the other hand, government in China has at least a tradition of promoting competence and good management. So when someone talks to the Chinese government about how corruption and policies that devastate the masses' private property are a problem, they're more likely to take that seriously than someone like Moammar Qaddafi. Because Qaddafi's interests in his own country are more strictly limited to his ability to rule it and enrich himself in doing so.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Quaddafi wasn't the worst of Africa's dictators, and his security apparatus was quite well developed, actually, and aimed to supress dissent since a long time before now. But he's not China. The Chinese government will easily weather this out, IMHO, for better or worse. They squashed a far more massive protest when they were poor and at a lower level of development. The more industrially developed is a nation, the easier it is to quell protests, either by talks or by violence, or using both in a highly competent opression strategy.
I'm not sure what, if anything, will come out of these events.
It's years and years, but the PAP is still in charge of Singapore, right? Maybe a small city and mainland China are not too comparable, but I can easily see the CPC becoming the PAP of future China and remaining in power for god knows how long. For better or worse, like I said. These days there's ample evidence that the CPC has succeeded at many things, but it often miserably fails. At which point I'm tempted to throw away any support of it into the rubbish bin. Much like with many other communist parties. That's why I'm a party-less communist, so far.
I'm not sure what, if anything, will come out of these events.
It's years and years, but the PAP is still in charge of Singapore, right? Maybe a small city and mainland China are not too comparable, but I can easily see the CPC becoming the PAP of future China and remaining in power for god knows how long. For better or worse, like I said. These days there's ample evidence that the CPC has succeeded at many things, but it often miserably fails. At which point I'm tempted to throw away any support of it into the rubbish bin. Much like with many other communist parties. That's why I'm a party-less communist, so far.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
I suspect some Chinese officials regard the PAP the ultimate goal, albeit modified to suit the massive colossus that CHina is. The PAP is greatly aided by the small size of Singapore, which makes it easy for them to use the security apparatus fairly effectively.Stas Bush wrote:Quaddafi wasn't the worst of Africa's dictators, and his security apparatus was quite well developed, actually, and aimed to supress dissent since a long time before now. But he's not China. The Chinese government will easily weather this out, IMHO, for better or worse. They squashed a far more massive protest when they were poor and at a lower level of development. The more industrially developed is a nation, the easier it is to quell protests, either by talks or by violence, or using both in a highly competent opression strategy.
I'm not sure what, if anything, will come out of these events.
It's years and years, but the PAP is still in charge of Singapore, right? Maybe a small city and mainland China are not too comparable, but I can easily see the CPC becoming the PAP of future China and remaining in power for god knows how long. For better or worse, like I said. These days there's ample evidence that the CPC has succeeded at many things, but it often miserably fails. At which point I'm tempted to throw away any support of it into the rubbish bin. Much like with many other communist parties. That's why I'm a party-less communist, so far.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
The impression I gather is that this isn't an attempt to actually overthrow the Chinese government, but to take advantage of their paranoia to make them think such an attempt will occur and waste resources trying to combat a non-serious threat.
Which is a bit of a catch-22 as if they simply start allowing the protests, that opens up an entirely new problem for them - being lax isn't an option.
Which is a bit of a catch-22 as if they simply start allowing the protests, that opens up an entirely new problem for them - being lax isn't an option.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Being lax and letting the protest dissipate is a good option if your regime hasn't gathered as much universal hatred by 90% youth unemployment, like, say, Mubaraks.Xeriar wrote:The impression I gather is that this isn't an attempt to actually overthrow the Chinese government, but to take advantage of their paranoia to make them think such an attempt will occur and waste resources trying to combat a non-serious threat.
Which is a bit of a catch-22 as if they simply start allowing the protests, that opens up an entirely new problem for them - being lax isn't an option.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
So much for the conspiracy-theory that the Arab protests were orchestrated by China.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
There's actually a big and uncoordinated global wave of protests, many of which are anti-autocracy or anti-poverty aimed. Part of the problem is exactly the fact that they are uncoordinated. Not just globally, but even inside the nations. Decades of "stability" of corrupt power have facilitated a huge protest moment in many nations, from the First to the Third World. Alas, there is no clear goals and programs because the protestors mostly stem from politically marginalized organizations and because the main goal is just to get rid of autocracy or economic problems associated therewith.Zixinus wrote:So much for the conspiracy-theory that the Arab protests were orchestrated by China.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
The People's Republic China shouldn't be seen as one country, but many countries bound together by force, violently established by a narcissistic bell end in the wake of decades of high intensity warfare. And in the Neo-Liberal Globalization boom has made some Chinese rich, not all of them. But I agree the sudden spate of unlikely, spontaneous rebellions and revolts across the globe has stemmed from decades now of Neo-Liberal Crapitalism, with high food prices plausibly threatening the stability of even Western democracies:
And here's some bizarre scenes of protest from Liverpool that the MSM remain awfull quiet about (with the twin nuttiness of Colonel Quaddafi and Charlie Sheen getting the most attention):Warning Of 'Food Price Riots In The UK'
A senior economist at the worldwide bank HSBC (LSE: HSBA.L - news) has warned of civil unrest in Britain if food prices continue to soar.
Speaking on Jeff Randall Live, senior global economist Karen Ward cautioned that the UK could experience the kind of food riots seen in other countries.
"Even in the developed world I think we have very, very low wage growth, so people aren't getting more in their pay packet to compensate them for food and energy, and I think we could see social unrest certainly in parts of the developed world and the UK as well."
She (SNP: ^SHEY - news) went on to highlight the link between high food prices and the escalating cost of crude oil.
"More and more we are seeing that some of these foodstuffs are actually substitutes for energy itself, particularly biofuels. So I think the energy markets are a significant contributor to these food price gains."
The comments come as the United Nations warned the cost of food is now at the highest level for 21 years and set to rise further.
Food costs have gone up for eight months in a row, with the National Farmers Union forecasting the trend will continue for the rest of 2011.
The cost of basic foodstuffs has been caused by increasing demand and extreme weather destroying crops and has been partly to blame for the unrest sweeping the arabic world.
Rising prices contributed to riots across North Africa and the Middle East in the past several months that have toppled leaders in Egypt and Tunisia.
Wheat has nearly doubled in price over the past six months and rising demand has caused the cost of sugar to rise by 14% over the past 12 months.
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'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor
'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor
Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
for those unaware Liverpool and the other northern cities have been disproportionately hard by the Goverment's cuts.
Since the Northern cities tend to have a larger population of poor people, the councils can raise less tax themselves and rely on money from the central gov to make up their budget. That money has been hit by Cameron's Big Society Shrink Ray.
The southern cities (by and large) are richer and thus affected far less by the loss of Whitehall money. They are also the main block of Tory voters. Maggie Thatcher tried to kill Liverpool back in the 80's.
Since the Northern cities tend to have a larger population of poor people, the councils can raise less tax themselves and rely on money from the central gov to make up their budget. That money has been hit by Cameron's Big Society Shrink Ray.
The southern cities (by and large) are richer and thus affected far less by the loss of Whitehall money. They are also the main block of Tory voters. Maggie Thatcher tried to kill Liverpool back in the 80's.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Big Orange wrote:The People's Republic China shouldn't be seen as one country, but many countries bound together by force, violently established by a narcissistic bell end in the wake of decades of high intensity warfare.
What are you smoking?
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A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
High-school history books, probably. Because that is, more or less accurate - of course, you could say the same thing about Germany by that logic, or about most nations in the world.Thanas wrote:Big Orange wrote:The People's Republic China shouldn't be seen as one country, but many countries bound together by force, violently established by a narcissistic bell end in the wake of decades of high intensity warfare.
What are you smoking?
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
I am not history buff, but isn't the UK formed from separate countries like Scotland, Ireland etc. I don't think these countries were exactly incorporated via UFP style diplomacy either.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
My point exactly.mr friendly guy wrote:I am not history buff, but isn't the UK formed from separate countries like Scotland, Ireland etc. I don't think these countries were exactly incorporated via UFP style diplomacy either.
Now if Big Orange can show that China needs substantial force RIGHT NOW in order to maintain one country, he would have a point. Tibet would be a good example, but Tibet is the exception rather than the rule.
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"Destiny and fate are for those too weak to forge their own futures. Where we are 'supposed' to be is irrelevent." - Sir Nitram
"The world owes you nothing but painful lessons" - CaptainChewbacca
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"The world owes you nothing but painful lessons" - CaptainChewbacca
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
OK, maybe I shouldn't be overstating the fragility of China as a series of countries and provinces. But the undemocratic, autocratic one party state is unsustainable in the (historical) medium to long run in the face of progress and greater Western access, plus China's tremendous economic development in recent decades has been unevenly applied to over a billion souls and seems unsustainable, much like in India.
Here's an interesting essay by Gordon G. Chang:
And here's an update on the PRC keeping a lid on the low level, tenative protests in Beijing:
Link
Here's another article on the so-called Jasmine Protest that's so-far sounds quite flaccid, and unlike Chang, Ching feels that economic growth does much to placate people (if you've got a day job occupying your time, why go out and protest?):
Here's an interesting essay by Gordon G. Chang:
Chang is being optimistic about the PRC seriously foundering in 2011, but he's been vindicated somewhat by the many proportionately smaller, weaker dicatorships in the Arab world either folding altogether (Mubarak), getting dislocated (like Quaddafi), or getting spooked by growing discontent (Saudi Arabia). The concerned PRC authorities have gotten spooked if they dampened the media and deployed men around Beijing in anticipation of trouble. Also, about their economy, they're starting to develope a trade deficit of their own since their internal consumer market is still overall weak in relation to the West's consumer market.Why Will China Collapse?
China’s political and economic system is unsustainable in a modern world. Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic, built an abnormal society and then isolated it from all others. His system could survive as long as China was kept apart from the rest of the world, but Mao’s successors have sought to open the People’s Republic to the outside. As the country becomes more integrated with other nations, the same forces that apply around the globe—political, economic, and social—also affect China. At some point in this process Mao’s abnormal system will give way because it is fundamentally incompatible with the role that China now seeks to occupy in the international system. Soon, the Chinese government will not be able to meet the challenges posed by an open and dynamic society.
What do you mean by “collapse”?
After the collapse there will be a new form of government and the Communist Party will no longer be in power. There will, of course, always be a China—but not one that is communist.
When Will China Collapse?
Within this decade—in other words, by 2011.
What will trigger collapse?
We do not know what will be the precise nature of events that lead to the fall of the Communist Party. Beijing faces many challenges—growing sovereign debt, social dislocations caused by accelerating economic growth, unreformed state banks plagued by nonperforming loans, an insolvent pension system that cannot provide for a graying population, a severely degraded environment, out-of-control corruption, skyrocketing crime, and broken educational and public health systems, just to name a few of them. Any one of these problems would be difficult for the central authorities to take. Add them all together, and we can see why the regime will eventually falter. We can dismiss talk of government failure as we downplay one concern or another, but the point is that the Communist Party faces many challenges all at once, not one challenge at a time.
How can a prosperous and reforming society collapse?
As an initial matter, the Communist Party is now sponsoring less reform than during the era of Deng Xiaoping, Mao’s successor. In the past, the central government’s policies resulted in the fastest economic growth in history. Change was impressive, and the country is a far better place today than it was at the beginning of the reform period in 1978. We shouldn’t take anything away from the Communist Party, but one point should nonetheless be mentioned. Chinese leaders, hoping to grow their way out of problems, switched their emphasis from reform to development at the end of the 1990s. The result, excessive building and production, is not the path to enduring prosperity. Sure, the economy is bigger today, but without a strong foundation it’s even more unstable.
Yet there is a more important point: reform does not always forestall revolution. In fact, history shows that reform is often a prelude to turmoil and ultimately discontinuous political change. Zhou Enlai, Mao Zedong’s premier, once said that it was still too early to comment on the French Revolution. He may have been correct, but there is one lesson that we can draw from that event: sustained change is tough for reforming regimes. There is nothing so destabilizing as modernization, which can radicalize even the beneficiaries of change—and especially them.
As Alexis de Tocqueville noted, peasants in pre-revolutionary France detested feudalism more than their counterparts in other portions of Europe, where conditions were worse. Discontent was highest in those parts of France where there had been the most improvement. Moreover, the French Revolution followed “an advance as rapid as it was unprecedented in the prosperity of the nation.” So, as Tocqueville stated, “steadily increasing prosperity” doesn’t tranquilize citizens. On the contrary, it promotes “a spirit of unrest.”
Senior Beijing officials now face the dilemma of all reforming authoritarians: economic success endangers their continued political control. Sustained modernization is the enemy of one-party systems. Revolutions occur under many conditions, but especially when political institutions do not keep up with the social forces unleashed by economic change. Nothing irritates a rising social class like inflexible leaders.
Beijing’s policies seem designed to widen this gap between the people and their government, thereby ensuring greater instability for the foreseeable future. Today, there’s unimaginable societal change at unheard of speed thanks in large part to government-sponsored economic growth and social engineering. Yet at the same time the Communist Party stands in the way of meaningful political change.
Because senior officials don't allow change of substance, the authorities must resort to force to stop the spread of unrest. But the use of the coercive power of the state is only a short-term solution — force just makes protests harder to control the next time. The leadershiip will not, or cannot, come to terms with the cause of unrest.
In fact, as China has become more prosperous, it has become more unstable. Since 2002 the demonstrations have become larger and more frequent. Moreover, demonstrators have become more defiant. And it is not just peasants and workers who are taking to the streets. Middle-class Chinese, big winners of the last quarter century of reform, are protesting as well. Across society, there is a new boldness in expressing discontent, something last seen in the Beijing Spring of 1989, the preclude to the massacre in Tiananmen Square.
Instead of collapsing, won’t the People’s Republic just evolve into a more humane society?
Many people hope that the People’s Republic will evolve like Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea. Leaders in those countries were not burdened by Marxism, however. Marxism not only gives their Chinese counterparts the right to rule but also demands that they do so. The leaders in Beijing believe they have a destiny, and that is to govern for all time.
It is my wish, and the wish of most other Chinese, that the People’s Republic gradually evolves into a better society. No one wants to see the turmoil and bloodshed that accompanies upheaval. The Chinese have suffered enough in the past two centuries. Nonetheless, when leaders rule out the possibility of peaceful change, people eventually resort to forceful tactics.
The renewed emphasis on Marxism and Maoism by Hu Jintao, China’s current supremo, substantially decreases the possibility of peaceful transformation of the Chinese political system. Today’s leaders may make changes here and there, but Mao Zedong’s system remains in place, and, to borrow his infamous words, politics remains in command of society.
Hasn’t Beijing learned important lessons from the fall of Soviet Communism?
It is true that the Chinese are taking a different route to rejuvenation than the Soviets. China’s economic restructuring has solved some problems that the Soviets could not handle but has created other challenges. One essential fact remains: the essence of the Marxist system in both the Soviet Union and China was, and remains, unreformable.
What effect will the 2008 Olympics have on China?
The awarding of the Olympic games both strengthens and weakens the regime. Of course, many Chinese think better of the Communist Party for winning the right to host this event. There is an added inflow of foreign investment and sponsorship money. Tourism will increase for sure. On the other hand, the regime will be weakened as ordinary citizens are further exposed to the outside world. Finally, the cost of the games and related infrastructure (US$34 billion in total) has strained, and will continue to stretch, the central government’s finances, which have already been weakened by a massive program of deficit spending. China can ill afford all the monuments that it is building to itself, especially when tens of millions of Chinese are not receiving education, health care, and other essential social services.
One thing the games will not do is change the leadership. Beijing has already won its prize, and senior officials see little or no need to yield to world opinion. The regime won’t change; the people will.
One more point about the Olympics. Beijing will employ every resource at its command to ensure stability in the run up to the games. It is unlikely, however, that the central authorities will be able to maintain a high level of vigilance indefinitely. Squeezing too tight now, the Communist Party will eventually have to relax its grip. The latter part of this decade promises to be a time of greater instability for China.
Why did you write Coming Collapse?
While living in Shanghai I realized that the analyses of foreign experts were not consistent with what I was seeing around me. For example, the central government in Beijing would announce many reforms, but little was actually being done. Nonetheless, foreigners were uncritically repeating what Beijing was saying. I then wanted to provide a more accurate assessment.
What do you hope Coming Collapse will accomplish?
Talking about the demise of the Communist Party was long overdue when Coming Collapse was released. The book has succeeded in stimulating discussion of instability in the world’s most populous country. We need to think about the consequences of the fall of the Party. Almost everyone was caught by surprise by the disintegration of communism in Europe and Mongolia. We should be better prepared this time.
And here's an update on the PRC keeping a lid on the low level, tenative protests in Beijing:
China keeps heavy security on fourth 'Jasmine' day
Beijing, March 13 (DPA) Hundreds of police maintained heavy security at two busy commercial sites in China's capital Sunday for the fourth week of planned 'Jasmine' rallies against the government.
Uniformed police with dogs patrolled Beijing's Wangfujing and Xidan shopping streets assisted by paramilitary and plainclothes officers, special forces units, security guards and volunteers.
The police checked the identities of people entering the two streets and there was no sign of open protest at either site.
The anonymous online organisers had advised people attending the rallies to 'stroll' near the protest sites but not to shout slogans, carry banners or identify themselves as protesters in other ways.
The organisers have listed dozens more planned protest sites across China since the first events Feb 20.
But there are no reports of large rallies in any cities except for Shanghai, where about 100 people appeared to congregate outside the Peace Cinema last Sunday following a much larger gathering Feb 27.
Police have detained or placed under house arrest dozens of well-known dissidents and activists since calls for protests began last month.
They have charged at least 20 people with subversion or other crimes linked to supporting or spreading information on the rallies, according to Hong Kong-based China Human Rights Defenders and other groups.
Many foreign journalists were also prevented from reporting or filming at the protest sites in Beijing and Shanghai.
Another online activist Guo Weidong, a well-known Twitter user from the eastern province of Zhejiang, was detained last week.
Guo's wife, Zhang Dan, told US-based Radio Free Asia that police informed her Friday that Guo was charged with 'incitement to subvert state power'.
Zhang said police had seized Guo's computer and other material, but the reason for the charges remained unclear as he had not voiced public support for the 'Jasmine' rallies.
Link
Here's another article on the so-called Jasmine Protest that's so-far sounds quite flaccid, and unlike Chang, Ching feels that economic growth does much to placate people (if you've got a day job occupying your time, why go out and protest?):
LinkJasmine is censored
14 March 2011 If you’re looking for good jasmine tea on Baidu, China’s biggest search engine, you may be in for a surprise. As soon as you type in “good jasmine tea,” Baidu flashes a message: “In accordance with relevant laws, regulations and policies, part of the search results are not shown.”
It’s not that the government discourages the tea, but the word “jasmine” has become toxic — even a song about the beautiful jasmine flower sung by Kenyan students along with President Hu Jintao is censored.
All this stems from the “Jasmine Revolution,” which began in Tunisia last December, leaped to Egypt and now spreads across North Africa and the Middle East. Beijing finds the fall of authoritarian governments in distant Africa embarrassing, recalling scenes of student-led protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989, crushed by the Chinese military. Even worse, there are attempts to launch “jasmine rallies” in China itself, although the organisers, who are anonymous and send messages online, have little to show for their efforts after three weeks. This may well be because China is more economically secure than the countries in the Arab world that are experiencing unrest. After all, it has gone through more than 30 years of rapid economic growth in which hundreds of millions of people have been lifted from poverty and people’s lives have improved dramatically.
In fact, a 22-nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey made public last June showed that while most people were unhappy with the direction of their country, China was an exception. “Only in China,” the survey reported, “does an overwhelming portion of the population (87 per cent) express satisfaction with national conditions.”
So, on the face of it at least, China does not seem ripe for a Jasmine Revolution.Those organising “jasmine rallies” in China evidently think otherwise. In an open letter published on overseas website Boxun.com, the organisers called on people to gather every Sunday at 2 pm to demand an independent judiciary, a government supervised by the people and an end to corruption.
On February 20, the first Sunday, it was difficult to tell protesters from ordinary shoppers since the designated sites in Beijing and Shanghai are busy shopping areas, but the police were out in force, overwhelming foreign journalists out to cover the event, or non-event as it turned out to be. Before that day, the police had preempted any protest by rounding up more than 100 activists. Despite no signs of protest outside MacDonald’s on the busy Wangfujing shopping street, designated as the site for a rally in Beijing, police and security agents tried to stop the journalists from reporting.
Since the first protest was pretty much of a fizzle, one might have assumed that the Chinese authorities would relax. But the next Sunday there was an even bigger turnout of police and security agents who declared war on foreign journalists.
The Chinese leadership evidently feels confronted with a dilemma: If they allow “strolling” to take place unhindered, then such gatherings will likely expand over time. If they clamp down hard, they may be seen as an illegitimate government able to stay in power only through force.
Clearly, China decided to crack down hard early so that a feeble movement does not gain strength. In fact, budget figures disclosed during the annual session of the National People’s Congress showed a sharp increase in funding for domestic security. For the first time, such expenditures exceed the amount spent on national defense.
Total budgeted spending for police, state security, armed civil militia, courts and jails amounted to 624 billion yuan, or US$95 billion, compared to 601.1 billion yuan, or $91.5 billion, for defence. Apparently, the government sees the domestic threat as being graver than any external threat despite the findings of the Pew Survey.
In fact, the government admits that people are unhappy. The China Daily, the official English-language daily, reported last week that a survey conducted by Gallup World Poll ranked China 125th among 155 countries when measuring people’s overall satisfaction with their lives. The newspaper pointed out that “only 6 per cent of Chinese people see themselves as happy” even though 36 per cent of respondents said their lives had improved during the past five years. Moreover, according to the government’s own statistics, unrest is widespread with the number of “mass incidents” rising in recent years and may now exceed 100,000 a year.
By all accounts, most people still have confidence in the central government, with which they rarely come into contact. But many have little confidence in officials at the local level, the people who seize their land, evict them from their homes to make deals with land developers and lock them up if they lodge petitions.
The way to respond to public dissatisfaction is to deal with legitimate grievances. Reacting in such a disproportionate manner to what’s at most a mild form of civil protest exposes a government that does not enjoy the trust of its people. And browbeating — actually beating — foreign reporters will result in that message being magnified rather than muffled.
Political stability maintained through coercive means may well result in political instability. China’s leaders should recall the saying of their founding father, Mao Zedong, “Where there is oppression there is resistance.”
'Alright guard, begin the unnecessarily slow moving dipping mechanism...' - Dr. Evil
'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor
'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Gordon Chang is the last person to be looked at for any reasonable objective analysis of the PRC, he's the sort that gets paid to say sh!t about it all the time, and twists events and evidence to suit his POV and those of his subscribers. The very points he likes to make are things that could be said about the US, Brazil or just about anyone else for that matter.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Say what? Several undemocratic states have lasted for a long time in the face of progress, from the classical era to Chinese and Islamic dynasties. Your only other disclaimer is in the face of "greater Western access", which is quite nebulous since if they don't collapse one can simply say the Western access wasn't accessed enough or something.Big Orange wrote:OK, maybe I shouldn't be overstating the fragility of China as a series of countries and provinces. But the undemocratic, autocratic one party state is unsustainable in the (historical) medium to long run in the face of progress and greater Western access, plus China's tremendous economic development in recent decades has been unevenly applied to over a billion souls and seems unsustainable, much like in India.
Even if the party collapses (as per Chang's criteria), I doubt the country will split up as per your view that its several states held together by force, with various states trying to get out. The reason is simply demographic. More than 90 % of the population is Han Chinese, with Han Chinese being the most numerous ethnic group by all provinces including several areas traditionally populated by ethnic minorities such as the 3 Manchurian provinces (where Han chinese were the majority even before the formation of the PRC*), Inner Mongolia, Guangxi (home to China's largest ethnic minority group, the Zhuang). The exceptions are Xinjiang (where the mix between Han and Uyghur is about equal) and the Tibet Autonomous Region. However the chances of the TAR splitting are even less likely now that the country as a whole is stronger, with connection to TAR and the rest of China improved with what Shep calls that shiny new railway of theirs.Here's an interesting essay by Gordon G. Chang:
Can he be any more vague? Lets chuck some perjoratives like abnormal into the mix without explaining what exactly is their weak link.
China’s political and economic system is unsustainable in a modern world. Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic, built an abnormal society and then isolated it from all others. His system could survive as long as China was kept apart from the rest of the world, but Mao’s successors have sought to open the People’s Republic to the outside. As the country becomes more integrated with other nations, the same forces that apply around the globe—political, economic, and social—also affect China. At some point in this process Mao’s abnormal system will give way because it is fundamentally incompatible with the role that China now seeks to occupy in the international system. Soon, the Chinese government will not be able to meet the challenges posed by an open and dynamic society.
I have managed to distill his spill down to 2 points
a) the current Chinese system is incompatible with China's role in the world. So in other words, its incompatible because he says so. Despite the fact that we have been having booming trade with them since economic reforms in the 1970s. In fact, what exactly is the role China wants to play in the world? He doesn't actually say so I am going to say what I think they want to do. Making money and expanding influence, like most nations. Which they seem to be doing right now.
b) China will be subjected to forces around the globe which will change them. Presumably he refers to things like the rising middle class and how they will demand more say, as the "political, economic and social forces that apply around the globe". If this is what he means, its still not a given since I am being pedantic and point out that Taiwan, when it threw off martial law in the early 1980s, the ruling party just "reinvented" themselves and contested elections, and stayed in power for several more years. Of course, given that Chan's own USA is facing a shrinking middle class ** he could simply be referring to something else altogether.
If he is referring to something else as the political, economic and social forces its hard for me to comment. However I should note I can likewise use the same vague statements and draw the opposite conclusion. For example as China interacts more with the world, China will not only be subjected to the forces affecting the globe and become more like other nations, other nations will also be subjected to China's influence and become more like China. And if he wants an example I can point to the US's violation of human rights under both the Bush and Obama administration, something 1-2 decades ago we would be expecting to see in China and not the US. Not that I think its a good thing, but his pseudo logic works both ways.
I could have sworn his book published in 2002 predicted it to collapse in 5-6 years, but it was a long time since I skim read it in a Singapore bookshop. The year is 2011, and every time he gets it wrong I vote we laugh at him.When Will China Collapse?
Within this decade—in other words, by 2011.
A lot of these problems can also be said of the US, but unless you are doom sayers like AV, J or Aerius, I don't think the US is going to collapse in 2011 either. Of course this essay from Chang was clearly before the Beijing olympics, so he might not have faced the worse of the subprime mess yet. To elaborate furtherWhat will trigger collapse?
We do not know what will be the precise nature of events that lead to the fall of the Communist Party. Beijing faces many challenges—growing sovereign debt, social dislocations caused by accelerating economic growth, unreformed state banks plagued by nonperforming loans, an insolvent pension system that cannot provide for a graying population, a severely degraded environment, out-of-control corruption, skyrocketing crime, and broken educational and public health systems, just to name a few of them. Any one of these problems would be difficult for the central authorities to take. Add them all together, and we can see why the regime will eventually falter. We can dismiss talk of government failure as we downplay one concern or another, but the point is that the Communist Party faces many challenges all at once, not one challenge at a time.
Non performing loans by banks - can you say subprime crisis? Yes we can.
Insolvent pension system that can't provide for a graying population- debatable, given we are still arguing over that in various threads.
Skyrocketing crime - I am pretty sure the US has more people in prisons per capita than China as established in a previous thread.
Broken educational and public health systems - do I need to say more?
Growing sovereign debt - I hear China buys a lot of your debt.
The point isn't to try and bash the US, but to point out the same problems afflict the US simultaneously and yet no one aside from doomsayers seriously predict a collapse of the US in 2011 or even in the near future. A declining influence from its glory days, yes, but collapse? So why does BO take it seriously when the same problems are applied to China.
Talk about cum hoc ergo prompter hoc.How can a prosperous and reforming society collapse?
blah blah blah
As Alexis de Tocqueville noted, peasants in pre-revolutionary France detested feudalism more than their counterparts in other portions of Europe, where conditions were worse. Discontent was highest in those parts of France where there had been the most improvement. Moreover, the French Revolution followed “an advance as rapid as it was unprecedented in the prosperity of the nation.” So, as Tocqueville stated, “steadily increasing prosperity” doesn’t tranquilize citizens. On the contrary, it promotes “a spirit of unrest.”
Again it depends on how fast reforms are carried out no? Again some of Asia's democracies eg Taiwan, South Korea etc didn't start off as a democracy copying the West. Yet they made reforms in time. Whether the CCP can make enough reforms to keep its citizens happy, only time will tell. But characterising them as inflexible seems inaccurate.Senior Beijing officials now face the dilemma of all reforming authoritarians: economic success endangers their continued political control. Sustained modernization is the enemy of one-party systems. Revolutions occur under many conditions, but especially when political institutions do not keep up with the social forces unleashed by economic change. Nothing irritates a rising social class like inflexible leaders.
Um, and Wen Jiaobao also talked about democracy too. I will believe it when I see it. By that same token Hu Jintao can wax poetry on marxism all he likes, I will believe it when I see it. In other words, Chang attributes Marxism as a weakness to prevent China reforming, except their society doesn't look Marxist any more.Instead of collapsing, won’t the People’s Republic just evolve into a more humane society?
Many people hope that the People’s Republic will evolve like Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea. Leaders in those countries were not burdened by Marxism, however. Marxism not only gives their Chinese counterparts the right to rule but also demands that they do so. The leaders in Beijing believe they have a destiny, and that is to govern for all time.
It is my wish, and the wish of most other Chinese, that the People’s Republic gradually evolves into a better society. No one wants to see the turmoil and bloodshed that accompanies upheaval. The Chinese have suffered enough in the past two centuries. Nonetheless, when leaders rule out the possibility of peaceful change, people eventually resort to forceful tactics.
The renewed emphasis on Marxism and Maoism by Hu Jintao, China’s current supremo, substantially decreases the possibility of peaceful transformation of the Chinese political system. Today’s leaders may make changes here and there, but Mao Zedong’s system remains in place, and, to borrow his infamous words, politics remains in command of society.
Seriously, I am one of those guys who like to see places including China become more liberal, since I am left leaning myself. But when people make statements like undemocratic nations don't last long, when a person with very little knowledge of history like myself can come up with undemocratic states eg slave holding Sparta, monarchies (Tang dynasty, Song dynasty) etc that have done just that, I can tell such a person isn't interested in having a serious discussion.
* I base this statement on the fact that the Japanese puppet state of Manchuko's own census show Han Chinese the majority, despite it being a Manchu state.
** As from the presentations by Professor Elizabeth Warren - search youtube for her.
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.
Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
Always on the lookout for more nice places to visit.
Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
Always on the lookout for more nice places to visit.
Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Actually the main block of Tory voters are rural. Cities in the South tend not to vote tory either. IIRC before the last election the Tories didn't actually have a single city constituency outside London.madd0ct0r wrote:for those unaware Liverpool and the other northern cities have been disproportionately hard by the Goverment's cuts.
Since the Northern cities tend to have a larger population of poor people, the councils can raise less tax themselves and rely on money from the central gov to make up their budget. That money has been hit by Cameron's Big Society Shrink Ray.
The southern cities (by and large) are richer and thus affected far less by the loss of Whitehall money. They are also the main block of Tory voters. Maggie Thatcher tried to kill Liverpool back in the 80's.
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Re: Security Clampdown in Beijing.
Hmmm, I see, so he has a reputation as a bullshitter, a US bullshitter, and his family was from Taiwan, so I can see where his bias against the Maoists came from. China certainly has its problems and its one party state ruling for many decades now is not ideal or tenable in the long run, but so-far the public discontent in Beijing seems to be pettering out, the PRC is far larger and better resourced than the now comparatively fragile despotic states in the Arab world, India and Russia seem more vulnerable to internal revolts against obscene corruption, and the earthquake in Japan has got the world media's attention.montypython wrote:Gordon Chang is the last person to be looked at for any reasonable objective analysis of the PRC, he's the sort that gets paid to say sh!t about it all the time, and twists events and evidence to suit his POV and those of his subscribers. The very points he likes to make are things that could be said about the US, Brazil or just about anyone else for that matter.
Also Bahrain has now exploded, with the Saudis trucking in medium to heavy armoured vehicles to crush the rebellion with one swift stroke:
The GuardianSaudi Arabian troops enter Bahrain as regime asks for help to quell uprising
Move which sees soldiers called in to protect strategic sites likely to inflame tensions between rulers and Shia majority
Saudi Arabian troops have crossed into Bahrain after the tiny Gulf kingdom's ruling family asked for help from neighbouring Sunni Arab states to quell a two-month uprising which threatens their 200-year-old dynasty.
The Saudi capital, Riyadh, said that it had responded to a "security threat" by deploying its troops on the streets of its neighbour. They are to protect strategic sites such as bridges and government buildings. Bahrain's rulers said the Saudi forces crossed the 16-mile causeway from Saudi Arabia to the island, together a contingent of troops from the Gulf Co-operation Council. Saudi authorities did not give details of the force; some reports estimate it to be 1,000.
Bahrain's Shia majority has laid siege to the centre of the capital, Manama, since mid-February and has, in recent days, marched on government buildings and palaces.
As news of the intervention spread through Manama, the landmark Pearl roundabout in the centre of the capital, which has become a focal point for the protests, and a nearby overpass played host to tens of thousands of demonstrators, many of them prepared for fresh confrontations with troops.
More worrying for many observers than the spectre of new clashes is an escalation in the standoff between the Gulf states and Iran, which has strongly backed Bahrain's Shia majority and has long been at odds with its Gulf neighbours, especially Saudi Arabia.
Iran's foreign minister, Ali Akbar, reacted immediately to the deployment, urging Bahrain's leaders to use restraint and wisdom in defusing the steadily deteriorating security situation. Meanwhile, Bahrain's main opposition bloc, the al-Wefaq party, described the Saudi-led intervention as a "declaration of war'. And an opposition alliance urged the United Nations to intervene.
"We consider the entry of any soldier or military machinery into the Kingdom of Bahrain's air, sea or land territories a blatant occupation," al-Wefaq said.
"This real threat about the entry of Saudi and other Gulf forces into Bahrain to confront the defenceless Bahraini people puts the Bahraini people in real danger, and threatens them with an undeclared war by armed troops."
The White House said that it did not consider the entry of Saudi Arabian security forces into Bahrain to be an invasion, an implicit reference to the 1990 entry by Iraqi forces into the small state of Kuwait which triggered two wars.
""This is not an invasion of a country," White House spokesman Jay Carney said. "We urge the government of Bahrain, as we have repeatedly, as well as other Gulf Co-operation Council countries [Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates], to exercise restraint," Carney added.
Diplomatic relations between Washington and Bahrain's rulers have been sorely tested in the past month. US officials had initially backed the demonstrators' demands for widespread political reforms and the instalment of a constitutional monarchy, which stripped power from the regime.
Their support was partly based on a shift in US Middle East policy to favouring democracy over stability, rather than the other way around - the stated US policy for more than 60 years.
However, frenetic shuttle diplomacy between Manama and Washington, as well as urgent appeals from the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, has since led the US to retreat to the sidelines in the dispute.
Bahraini officials earlier this month told their US counterparts that the protests could gain unstoppable momentum if they continued to be sanctioned by the US, a development that would imperil US interests. The US has long viewed Bahrain as an important strategic ally, and bases its Fifth Fleet near Manama, viewing the kingdom as a buffer amid tensions between the US and Iran.
Bahrain's crown prince, Sheikh Salman al-Khalifa, late last month announced a dialogue with opposition parties aimed at giving the disenchanted Shia majority a greater role in the affairs of state. The talks, however, appear to have stalled, with opposition groups at odds over key demands.
Some opposition members are insisting on the overthrowing of the monarchy, while al-Wefaq has limited its calls to making the Sunni ruling family's clan-like regime more accountable in law. Shias account for 70% of Bahrain's population, but are not allowed to serve in large parts of the country's establishment, such as the military and the police. The regime has long-believed that its Shia population is susceptible to Iranian influence.
Bahrain's security forces are almost exclusively Sunni, many invited from neighbouring states and given Bahraini citizenship. A common refrain among Shia groups is that the security forces safeguard the regime, but not the people.
As central Manama once again seethed, troops and riot police were nowhere to be seen. Clashes in February left seven demonstrators dead. Dozens more were wounded, mainly by teargas and rubber bullets, when troops ousted demonstrators from Pearl roundabout on 16 February. The crown prince ordered that troops surrender the roundabout three days later as part of the regime's calls for calm.
'Alright guard, begin the unnecessarily slow moving dipping mechanism...' - Dr. Evil
'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor
'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid
'I think it's gone a little bit wrong.' - The Doctor