Republican presidential hopefuls join battle to face Barack

[Bernkastel]

From the Guardian. I have not made comments because, to put it frankly, I don't know enough about many of the possible candidates to make any useful remarks. I will be watching this as close as I can though when it starts, and look forward to the input that the many American members of this board can provide on this.

The long-heralded race for the Republican presidential nomination is set to begin this week as a multitude of potential candidates for the job of taking on President Barack Obama in 2012 head to the first key battleground state of Iowa.

Five potential runners will appear tomorrow at an event organised by the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition in the state capital, Des Moines. They include big names such as former House speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, as well as outsiders such as the Tea Party favourite, businessman Herman Cain. In a sign of how serious the race has now become, Santorum, a darling of the religious right with extremely conservative views on social issues, will spend this week touring all the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in a trip that bears all the signs of a genuine campaign swing.

Santorum's move throws down the gauntlet to other potential candidates, including former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who must now consider jumping into the fray to stop other candidates soaking up early publicity. The race is set to dominate the political headlines for all of 2011 and be one of the most hard-fought and intense in recent memory. In many ways, that could be good for Obama, who will sit back and watch his Republican opponents forced to attack each other. "With a long primary season these candidates are going to go after their rivals. They will do a lot of Barack Obama's work for him," said Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California at Riverside.

It will also make for fascinating politics as the Republican field fills out with a ragtag mix of current and former politicians who run the range from potentially serious contender to joke candidate. At the moment the leader in recent polls is Mike Huckabee, the current Fox News host and former governor of Arkansas, who won Iowa in 2008 before eventually losing the nomination to John McCain. Huckabee last week created headlines by appearing to criticise Obama for his family links to Kenya and spending part of his childhood in Indonesia. Such statements create bad mainstream press but appeal to the Republican base. Huckabee is now setting the pace with many Republican experts. "I think Huckabee is in a tremendous position, certainly in Iowa. He will do very well there," said Steve Mitchell, chairman of political polling firm Mitchell Research.

Huckabee has started to outshine the man tipped early on to be the Republican front-runner: former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who has been hit hard by criticism that a healthcare plan he applied in his state was too similar to Obama's reforms. With the Republican party campaigning vigorously to have healthcare reform repealed, Romney's prospects have been dampened. He is not alone in having major image problems in important areas. Indeed, almost all of the Republican field has at least one major drawback, which could provide a boost for Obama and his Democrat team. Candidates like Huckabee, Santorum and Gingrich are seen as conservative enough to win a Republican primary but very off-putting to more moderate independent voters who will probably decide the 2012 election.

More centrist figures, such as former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, lack name recognition and are unpopular with the Republican base. Some candidates, like Pawlenty and Indiana governor Mitch Daniels, are seen as competent but also bland and uninspiring. Meanwhile, Mississippi governor Haley Barbour is seen as being too Southern to appeal outside that region and has sullied his chances with a series of insensitive remarks on race. There are also novelty candidates, such as the oft-touted presidential ambitions of reality TV businessman Donald Trump, or Tea Party stars Cain and congresswoman Michele Bachmann, whom few see as remotely serious.

Finally, looming above it all, is Sarah Palin. Though she has a fanatical fan base and huge fame, the former governor of Alaska is seen as a wildly divisive figure. She is polling badly among Republican voters and many experts feel that her work as a speaker and author is too lucrative for her to risk what would be an intense and lengthy campaign. However, if she were to jump in she would be likely to electrify the race and the nation.

That means that many experts should see Obama as a favourite to win. However, he faces a great challenge in the form of an economy that is struggling to emerge from recession, especially in the area of job creation. Some experts see the 2012 race less as Obama vs a Republican and more as Obama vs the economy. Many believe that, if the economy is still in trouble 18 months from now, Obama could potentially be defeated by almost any Republican candidate. "If the economy is still stuck in the summer of 2012, then Obama will be vulnerable. But if the economy clicks, then Obama wins," Bowler said.

.........................................
WHO WILL CHALLENGE OBAMA?


Newt Gingrich The former House Speaker and nemesis of Bill Clinton is deeply conservative but is seen as too radical for moderate voters.

Rick Santorum The former Pennsylvania senator is beloved by the religious right and outspoken in condemning homosexuality.

Haley Barbour The Mississippi governor is seen as too much of a "good ol' boy" to appeal much outside the South.

Mike Huckabee The former Arkansas governor won Iowa in 2008 and could repeat the process, but has created controversy by slamming Obama's background.

Tim Pawlenty The former Minnesota governor could appeal to centrists as well as Republicans, but lacks charisma.

Jon Huntsman Governor and ambassador to China, Huntsman has charisma but is unknown to most Americans and disliked by powerful Republican conservatives.

Michele Bachmann The Minnesota congresswoman gave the official Tea Party response to Obama's State of the Union speech in a televised appearance that was roundly panned by critics.

Mitch Daniels The Indiana governor is solidly conservative, but having a hard time gaining name recognition.

Herman Cain The black Tea Party favourite is a radio show host and former head of a pizza company. He is also a rank outsider.

Sarah Palin John McCain's former running mate is the great wild card of the race: will she or won't she run? She has a fanatical support base, but is a joke to many other Americans.

[General Zod]

This is the best the right wing has to offer? Kinda sad really. I don't know who a few of those are, but the others I just can't see making a huge dent in the next election considering their performance the last time they ran.

[Crossroads Inc.]

This confirms a thought I have had for a while, which is the Far Right is simply running out of people that can run nation wide. Oh sure, state by state, they can push through insain nutjobs who will force their backward views on a city or a whole state... But Nationwide? The GOP blew their wad as it were on Shrub... Look at the last line of GOP Presidents.

Reagan got in largely because ALL of America had turned on Carter, Bush the elder got in largerly because he was Reagans VP, and because Dukakis hardly put up a fight. Shrub "won" (cough cough voter fraud) because Al Gore had the charisma of a damp rag, and of course because he was the son of a formal President.

But now? There are no more dynasties, there are no more coat-tails to ride. Every GOP in office today has a list of skeletons that makes him virtually unelectable, and fresh GOP'ers would never get the support needed by the corrupt power brokers of the GOP to be a serious canidate.

Obama has been a MASSIVE disappointment, but I still see him having a fair chance at re-election largerly because there is no credable threat from the Far Right. I may end up being 100% wrong on this... But unless someone comes totally out of right field and wooos the nation, I cannot give any of the front runners a credable chance of beating Obama.

[JME2]

Obama has been a MASSIVE disappointment, but I still see him having a fair chance at re-election largerly because there is no credable threat from the Far Right. I may end up being 100% wrong on this...

I think you're right. That lack of a serious opponent may be the only thing that saves Obama, because he's quickly become Carter's spiritual successor -- at least in my eyes.

[Omega18]

I will note for the record that the Guardian list is a bit screwy in that it includes Herman Cain in particular while leaving out Mitt Romney who would have to be considered one of the most serious Republic Presidential prospects.

I definitely disagree for the record with some of the other posters regarding Obama. Obviously he's by no means perfect and there are positions I am disappointed that he has taken, but the reality is you're going to pretty much end up with that no matter who you elect. (With regards to the economy, the reality has always been it takes years for changes in federal government policy to really have their full impact.) I'll leave things at that since the focus of this thread as created is on potential Republican presidential nominees.

[TheHammer]

Obama has been a MASSIVE disappointment, but I still see him having a fair chance at re-election largerly because there is no credable threat from the Far Right. I may end up being 100% wrong on this...

I think you're right. That lack of a serious opponent may be the only thing that saves Obama, because he's quickly become Carter's spiritual successor -- at least in my eyes.

While things may not have been happeing as fast as some would like, we give Presidents 4 year terms for a reason. It seems like he made a lot of progress at the end of the year, and he's still got time to complete work on his promises. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... /obameter/

I guess the point I'm making is, judgement should be reserved until he's at least completed his term as to whether or not he's a disappointment or not. After all, midway through Clinton's first term, everyone thought he was a one and done president as well. And now? Everyone think's he was a great president.

[Iroscato]

Being on the side of the pond, I can't really get as information about the political landscape in America as I'd like to, but from what I can tell the Republicans are too busy fighting amongst themselves to put up too much of a fight against Obama, so I reckon they'll lose, and lose hard.

I can but hope...

[SCRawl]

Here's a question -- off topic of the OP, but people keep bringing this up, so I'll ask it: if President Obama wins a second term, and goes on to right some of the wrongs of his first term, and then to fulfill some of the liberals' wettest dreams, would that make up for being wishy-washy (at best) in his earliest years? My vote for this is "yes", but only if more permanent re-balancing of policy (i.e. toward the left) can be achieved in the post-Obama era. This would be cold comfort to those who spent all those extra years in Guantanamo, for example, but on balance the effect of his presidency could still be positive. (Unfortunately, there are quite a few "ifs" involved here, but I'm curious about what user opinion is here.)

[TheHammer]

Being on the side of the pond, I can't really get as information about the political landscape in America as I'd like to, but from what I can tell the Republicans are too busy fighting amongst themselves to put up too much of a fight against Obama, so I reckon they'll lose, and lose hard.

I can but hope...

The Tea Party has forced out most reasonable Republican candidates. So now, the remaining candidates are caught up trying to "out-conservatize" each other, which in the end makes them look bat shit insane to just about everyone left of the tea party. Because of that, they are essentially unelectable.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Here's a question -- off topic of the OP, but people keep bringing this up, so I'll ask it: if President Obama wins a second term, and goes on to right some of the wrongs of his first term, and then to fulfill some of the liberals' wettest dreams, would that make up for being wishy-washy (at best) in his earliest years? My vote for this is "yes", but only if more permanent re-balancing of policy (i.e. toward the left) can be achieved in the post-Obama era. This would be cold comfort to those who spent all those extra years in Guantanamo, for example, but on balance the effect of his presidency could still be positive. (Unfortunately, there are quite a few "ifs" involved here, but I'm curious about what user opinion is here.)

Are you kididng? I will HAPPILY eat crow for the next 30years if Obama is relected and goes on to push though a litinay of Progressive and far left agenda items. There is a part ( a small part now) that hopes the reason he has been such a spinless and cowardly ass on standing up to the right is specifically so he can get re-elected and then push on far left items. I won't pull punches, his first 3 years in office when dealing with the right has basically been "Thank you sir may I have another?"

I do indeed hope that is the case, because if not, Obama will go down as one of the most wasted opportunities for change since Carter.

On another note going back to the OP. As I said earlier, and others, especially Hammer have touched on, the Right in America has really gone off the deep end. If the last election showed us anything it is that there IS a limit to how much Crazy the average voter will take. And the Right in America is full of people dangerouslly crazy. Now many of these people stil lget elected, (just look at Rand Paul) and this is largely because in parts of the US you have enough voters who don't mind the crazy. But on a National stand point the divid is still very very far. People like Rand Paul, Mitt Romely, Michele Bachmann, these people can easily get elected, but only on the local level. I have just enough faith left in AMERICA that their level of Crazy will never be nationally acceptable.

[KrauserKrauser]

As far as economic policy goes I would rate Carter well above Obama especially when it comes to the people he chooses to surround himself with and place in power.

Simply comparing Paul Volcker (Fed chairman under Carter that made Wall Street cry tears with required interest rate increases) and the current Wall Street Ass Clown that is Ben Bernanke gives you good enoough reason to rate Obama in the toilet compared to Carter.

[Mr Bean]

From the Guardian. I have not made comments because, to put it frankly, I don't know enough about many of the possible candidates to make any useful remarks.

Then by all means sir let me give you a "Who are these people" intro lesson to the various possible

Newt Gingrich The former House Speaker and nemesis of Bill Clinton is deeply conservative but is seen as too radical for moderate voters.

Newt is famous for three things
1. The Republican lead shutdown and failed stand-off against Bill Clinton in 1994, plus him being forced to resign from congress a few years later in disgrace
2. Threatening to run for president since 1996 and making money of said runs (He has lots of business interests in the political arena
3. A know history of saying some rather moral reprehensible things as well as having huge personal life issues including marrying two mistresses after dumping the old wife

Newt's chances of winning have dropped every year he's not run and had more time to say dumb things and do morally bad things. He is also no one's number 2 pick even if the business community might seem him as their number 3 pick after Romney and Haley Barbour.
Money quote
AP: "In 1994, Gingrich responded to reports he'd had extramarital affairs while running a family-values campaign in 1978 by saying, "In the 1970s, things happened."

Rick Santorum The former Pennsylvania senator is beloved by the religious right and outspoken in condemning homosexuality.

Santorum is an extremist, specifically a virulent anti-gay extremist with a long history of saying semi-racist things then following them up by saying incredibly homophobic things. No one in their right mind believes he can win because he's so hateful. The feeling Santorum generates in most people in debates is dealing with that old racist uncle you have who you have to put up with during family get together. IE you know the person who formed their world view based on 1930's Nazi propaganda, the Negro's are inferior and stealing our women. The Jews are making us poor and stealing our hard work and godless Communists are everywhere.

The main reason he won't win is again is he's anti-charismatic. Outside of a tiny area of the country he actively turns people off and the more exposure he gets the faster his negatives climb.

Money quote
Watching President Obama apologize last week for America's arrogance - before a French audience that owes its freedom to the sacrifices of Americans - helped convince me that he has a deep-seated antipathy toward American values and traditions.

Haley Barbour The Mississippi governor is seen as too much of a "good ol' boy" to appeal much outside the South.

Has know history of statements and support for white power groups. However is popular among corporate interests because he stays reliably bought. Not enough know about Haley to rule him out despite statements because he's a white good old boy and that's all you need to win 1/3rd of the votes.

Money quote:"Because the business community wouldn't stand for it," he said. "You heard of the Citizens Councils? Up north they think it was like the KKK. Where I come from it was an organization of town leaders. In Yazoo City they passed a resolution that said anybody who started a chapter of the Klan would get their ass run out of town. If you had a job, you'd lose it. If you had a store, they'd see nobody shopped there. We didn't have a problem with the Klan in Yazoo City."

Note: The Citizens Councils were formed to oppose any attempts at school integration, the reason they fought with the KKK was simple... they were competition. They were also responsible for the number of private all white schools created in the wake of Brown VS Board of Education.

Mike Huckabee The former Arkansas governor won Iowa in 2008 and could repeat the process, but has created controversy by slamming Obama's background.

The presumptive front runner because he will win Iowa. He could do nothing for the next year and still win Iowa as he was very popular there last year and nothing he's done since has weakened his support. In person he's a very nice man, seriously he is in person a nice kind spoke man even if he's telling you rather terrible policies he says them in a nice soft spoken ways which does not generate ire among anything but the biggest activists. He speaks quietly and sincerely and you find yourself doing the same back so he always comes off as a resoniable even if his policies are for you to give all of your money to corperates in exchange from him agreeing to fire half the police and fire departments across the country

He is also very religious which comes up from time to time
Money Quote:"If anybody wants to believe they're the descendants of a primate, they'e welcome to do it." --answering a question about evolution

Tim Pawlenty The former Minnesota governor could appeal to centrists as well as Republicans, but lacks charisma.
Mitch Daniels The Indiana governor is solidly conservative, but having a hard time gaining name recognition.
Herman Cain The black Tea Party favourite is a radio show host and former head of a pizza company. He is also a rank outsider.
Jon Huntsman Governor and ambassador to China, Huntsman has charisma but is unknown to most Americans and disliked by powerful Republican conservatives.

All of these fall into the to soon to call group. They don't have name recognition or any major strikes against them except for Cain (Statements) and are at best all unlikely Dark Horse runs. If Fox News starts covering any of them in a big way we might have a possible 4th real runner on our hands.

Michele Bachmann The Minnesota congresswoman gave the official Tea Party response to Obama's State of the Union speech in a televised appearance that was roundly panned by critics.

No chance, a woman who looks up to Michael Steel as a great orator who never makes mistakes she might hope to reach the same level as Steel one day.
Seriously it's quote time (Thank you about.com for saving these)

1. "I find it interesting that it was back in the 1970s that the swine flu broke out under another, then under another Democrat president, Jimmy Carter. I'm not blaming this on President Obama, I just think it's an interesting coincidence." -Rep. Michele Bachmann, on the 1976 Swine Flu outbreak that happened when Gerald Ford, a Republican, was president, April 28, 2009

2. "I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out: Are they pro-America or anti-America?" -Rep. Michelle Bachmann, calling for a new McCarthyism, Oct. 2008

6. "Carbon dioxide is portrayed as harmful. But there isn't even one study that can be produced that shows that carbon dioxide is a harmful gas." -Rep. Michelle Bachmann, April,
7. “But we also know that the very founders that wrote those documents worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the United States.”
8. "I want people in Minnesota armed and dangerous on this issue of the energy tax because we need to fight back. Thomas Jefferson told us 'having a revolution every now and then is a good thing,' and the people -- we the people -- are going to have to fight back hard if we're not going to lose our country." -Rep. Rep. Michele Bachmann, March 2009
18. ''If we took away the minimum wage — if conceivably it was gone — we could potentially virtually wipe out unemployment completely because we would be able to offer jobs at whatever level.''

Yeah, her fellow Republicans will tear her limb from limb Her candidacy if it ever starts will last exactly two months if that and no more will be spoken about President Bachmann again.

Sarah Palin John McCain's former running mate is the great wild card of the race: will she or won't she run? She has a fanatical support base, but is a joke to many other Americans.

The people's champion, the mother of four or five. The person who is most likely to ensure Obama has a cakewalk victory if she is the Republican Nominee. Is so popular with the base and the Tea Party she might win despite everyone else best efforts to defeat her.
Money Quote:Especially within hours of a tragedy unfolding, journalists and pundits should not manufacture a blood libel that serves only to incite the very hatred and violence they purport to condemn. That is reprehensible." --Sarah Palin, defending her fiery campaign rhetoric in the wake of the Arizona shooting massacre by invoking a phrase ("blood libel") that typically refers historically to the alleged murder of Christian babies by Jews, Jan. 12, 2011

Mitt Romney

The fall back guy, everyone's number two choice. The man who can win by not losing, that is Mitt Romney. He's like by the Corporations some what, he's tolerated by the religious right (Mormon is the kiss of death for most national political because lots of American Christians consider them a cult not a branch of Christianity) he is after Huckabee the most likely person to win the nomination because he can appeal some what to every major interest group. When people talking 2nd choices or VP picks Romney's name is at the top of that list

Money Quote:"My sons are all adults and they've made decisions about their careers and they've chosen not to serve in the military and active duty and I respect their decision in that regard. One of the ways my sons are showing support for our nation is helping me get elected because they think I'd be a great president."

[Broomstick]

I'm only going to comment on two of Mr. Bean's “lessons”

Rick Santorum The former Pennsylvania senator is beloved by the religious right and outspoken in condemning homosexuality.

Santorum is an extremist, specifically a virulent anti-gay extremist with a long history of saying semi-racist things then following them up by saying incredibly homophobic things. No one in their right mind believes he can win because he's so hateful. The main reason he won't win is again is he's anti-charismatic. Outside of a tiny area of the country he actively turns people off and the more exposure he gets the faster his negatives climb.

This cuts both ways. “Santorum” has become a slang term for the mix of semen and shit resulting from anal sex. This was promoted deliberately by the gays he so much hates, and has even spread to some of us heterosexuals. That's a pretty strong level of hate. Santorum is despised not only by many homosexuals but also by a lot of other groups. He might run, but he won't win.

Tim Pawlenty The former Minnesota governor could appeal to centrists as well as Republicans, but lacks charisma.
Mitch Daniels The Indiana governor is solidly conservative, but having a hard time gaining name recognition.
Herman Cain The black Tea Party favourite is a radio show host and former head of a pizza company. He is also a rank outsider.
Jon Huntsman Governor and ambassador to China, Huntsman has charisma but is unknown to most Americans and disliked by powerful Republican conservatives.

All of these fall into the to soon to call group. They don't have name recognition or any major strikes against them except for Cain (Statements) and are at best all unlikely Dark Horse runs. If Fox News starts covering any of them in a big way we might have a possible 4th real runner on our hands.

I can only speak about Mitch Daniels, who is my current governor. Yes, he's Republican, and yes he's considered a conservative, but he's not a batshit insane extremist. He has done such heretical things as a public-private partnership to get Hoosiers without health insurance an affordable alternative (he's why my family has any health coverage at all). He told the Republicans in the state legislative to NOT engage in public union busting tactics such as in Wisconsin because the political “carnage” (his very word) would be too great (unfortunately, they ignored him). When privatization of government services haven't worked he has unprivatized them. Despite the economic crap of recent years the state budget and finances are in much better shape than many other states. And some state services, such as the Bureau of Motor Vehicles, have dramatically improved their efficiency and customer service under his administration. Seriously – I used to routinely wait 2+ hours every time I went to the BMV but since the Daniels improvements I'm usually in and out in 15 minutes, and many things are now possible for citizens to do over the internet, which probably accounts for the dramatic drop in on-site wait times as fewer people need or want to go there in person. Remarkably, he has even proposed raising taxes to balance the budget when cuts will no longer do the job, or would result in hardship for citizens.

In other words, he might make a decent president because he's not an extremist. He's certainly more intelligent than Bush W. He has done some things that have improved life for everyone in the state, and some things targeting the poorest and most needy. The biggest obstacle is that so far he hasn't expressed much interest in running for president. That, and the batshit crazy extreme right view him as a liberal for such heresy as proposing tax increases to balance a budget and calling for a “truce on social issues”. The fact the Rabid Right doesn't like him is a plus in my book, but it could impair his nomination and election chances. On the other hand, it could help him attract voters disaffected with Obama's record.

[MKSheppard]

Newt is famous for three things

3. A know history of saying some rather moral reprehensible things as well as having huge personal life issues including marrying two mistresses after dumping the old wife.

You forgot that he was already shopping around for Wife #2, while Wife #1 was fighting cancer. In fact he even served W1 with divorce papers on her hospital bed.

With that said -- Newt once had a chance. But that was long ago. VERY long ago. His own personal actions and ethics have resulted in him self-eliminating himself from any serious competition.

(snippy)

Mitt Romney

The fall back guy, everyone's number two choice. The man who can win by not losing, that is Mitt Romney.

He was a lot more electable in 2008. With ObamaCare drawing unfavorable reactions to RomneyCare; I don't think he can pull ahead of the pack.

[JME2]

Yeah, Newt can go to hell as far as I'm concerned -- not that I'd vote for the GOP. Not after the bullshit of the last decade.

[Gil Hamilton]

That Santorum is still around and kicking is kind of a surprise to me. He's not even popular in Pennsylvania. Only the really right wing ever liked him and even that was tanked when (in a rare moment of decency) he backed long time colleague and Hated-Politician-Amongst-the-Right Arlen Specter against the conservative favorite Toomey. He has been dogged by some scandals, including the one where he used local tax dollars to pay for most of his kids tuition in a district they for the most part didn't live in (Santorum really lives in Virginia, and the apartment he used to claim residency was one that he was renting to someone else).

He'll never get nominated. As Bean said, he's well beyond non-charismatic to actively creepy.

[RedImperator]

If the Obama administration is worried about any of these people, they must know something I don't.

[Mr Bean]

If the Obama administration is worried about any of these people, they must know something I don't.

That Marco Rubio will be the Republican Vice President pick.
I've called it before I'm calling it now. He's got the chops, he's young and while he has signaled he's not running for President VP is still open and come 2012 people building dream teams will want him as the VP. He does not embarrass himself in public, he's a Latino and he's Tea Party backed. For those who forgot him, he's the fellow who kicked Crist out of office in Florida.
You forget that 2004 proved that the Republican party can win with only their base and a high turnout.

If Obama continues to insult his own voters on a day to day biases while giving in to Republican demands time after time in exchange for nothing then simple lack of voter turnout will crush Obama because you can be sure that with the climate that persists today even if it's Palin/Sanatorium that 60% of the Republican side will show up to vote and vote for the Republicans. If they do nothing but appeal to their bases and work on get out the vote campaigns for six months and avoid any major gaffs the Republicans can win this.

PS:Speaking of Obama giving things away, remember kids... if you and I agree on something and then you agree to do that thing in exchange for something else I don't want to do... that's not comprise. That's me giving away a position in exchange for another position you also support. The budget cuts are a great example of this in action. Every time Obama agrees to anything as a sensible cut then the Republicans simply move the goal post and accept that all the cuts will be approved and demand more concessions in exchange for support of things they really want to do themselves.

[UnderAGreySky]

Something I found [via the Economist] - it's funny but I think it's true, too:



A couple of names (Herman Cain and Haley Barbour) were new to me - I'm across the pond too, but I have a fairly good idea who everyone else is thanks to SDN and Fark.

[Thanas]

Here's a question -- off topic of the OP, but people keep bringing this up, so I'll ask it: if President Obama wins a second term, and goes on to right some of the wrongs of his first term, and then to fulfill some of the liberals' wettest dreams, would that make up for being wishy-washy (at best) in his earliest years? My vote for this is "yes", but only if more permanent re-balancing of policy (i.e. toward the left) can be achieved in the post-Obama era. This would be cold comfort to those who spent all those extra years in Guantanamo, for example, but on balance the effect of his presidency could still be positive. (Unfortunately, there are quite a few "ifs" involved here, but I'm curious about what user opinion is here.)

Yeah, it might make up for it. But the hopes for that are slim, as Obama repeatedly takes the easy way out.

[Bernkastel]

Thanks to all who have provided information on the candidates so far. While I knew a bit about Gingrich and quite a lot about Palin, the others were people who I had, at best, heard their name once or twice.

[Mr Bean]

Thanks to all who have provided information on the candidates so far. While I knew a bit about Gingrich and quite a lot about Palin, the others were people who I had, at best, heard their name once or twice.

Even being a political junky the shear number of names coming out this year is unusual. Normally the field is three people plus any number of long shots. But this year we have nine names are being held up possible front runners. My narrowing of the list to Huckabee, Romney and Palin is only me applying my own analysis to the situation. People pitch Pawlenty, Daniels, Barbour as just as likely but we simply don't know enough at this point and I'm pretty sure the polls in Iowa for example leave off Paul, Trump and Bachmann from the "who would you vote for" and who knows how that would change the polls.

We have ten possible people running counting Bolton, Cain, Barbour, Hunstman, Gingrich, Hucakabee, Palin, Daniels, Pawlenty, Romney plus six "possibles" like Ron Paul or Donald Trump plus people doomed to failure but might run anyway (Bachmann/Santorum)

(*Edit, I said 9 names to begin with because I don't count Bolton as having any kind of sane shot he has Santorum's problem of pissing of everyone he meets)

[Thanas]

In the unlikely event that Huntsman gets the nod, then there would be no need to vote for Barrack Obama anymore. After a glance at his political positions (and considering he actually managed to get some things done in Utah) I find it hard-pressed to argue that he would be substantially worse. He may even be the best chance the GOP has, given that his views are largely centrist and that he is quite a good rhetor. Intelligent too, unlike others who would not be able to handle the debates with Obama.

Of course, he would also alienate the base, so that is why I doubt he has much of a chance.

[Simon_Jester]

Thanks to all who have provided information on the candidates so far. While I knew a bit about Gingrich and quite a lot about Palin, the others were people who I had, at best, heard their name once or twice.

Even being a political junky the shear number of names coming out this year is unusual. Normally the field is three people plus any number of long shots. But this year we have nine names are being held up possible front runners. My narrowing of the list to Huckabee, Romney and Palin is only me applying my own analysis to the situation. People pitch Pawlenty, Daniels, Barbour as just as likely but we simply don't know enough at this point and I'm pretty sure the polls in Iowa for example leave off Paul, Trump and Bachmann from the "who would you vote for" and who knows how that would change the polls.

I think most people's short list of big names would overlap heavily with yours at this moment. Like it or not, they are (more or less) the frontrunners, because they're the big-name candidates who showed up on national political radar in 2008: Romney and Huckabee by making solid runs for president, and Palin by getting picked for an office that would make her likely to become president.

And sure, a dark horse might show up and surprise everyone, as might a candidate who was previously counted out or deemed low-probability like Mitch Daniels. Indeed, given the sheer number of potential dark horses, I suspect the odds of that happening are very good. But that's to be expected when we're trying to call the outcome of the primary elections a full year before they happen. The candidate who wins in a year won't necessarily be the 'most likely' candidate of today, and I don't think it's reasonable to expect that kind of accuracy in a long range forecast.

[lance]

Mitt Romney

The fall back guy, everyone's number two choice. The man who can win by not losing, that is Mitt Romney.

He was a lot more electable in 2008. With ObamaCare drawing unfavorable reactions to RomneyCare; I don't think he can pull ahead of the pack.

He might get traction in states that have open primaries.