Earthquake off Japan

[Broomstick]

The Chernobyl workers, once things started going wrong, did pretty much everything they could think of and took a lot of personal risks to limit the damage.

Without going into a discussion of Chernobyl, no, I don't think the ones who were supposed to be running the show there did a good job. Certainly there were many acts of self-sacrificing heroism there, but the emergency wasn't well managed. Discarding multiple instruments that were registering off the scale instead of facing the notion that yes, the radiation was off the scale is not doing a good job.

I'm sure we'll see the same here. Many acts of heroic self-sacrifice and some people failing to keep track of what they should have been paying attention to. Days of stress and exhaustion certainly could be a significant factor in failing to keep track of the current pile of shit that is hitting the fan. Judgment starts to break down in a matter of hours under high stress, these people have been under monumental stress for days.

In analyzing such an event it's not simply enough to say "they fucked up" - you look into WHY they fucked up. If exhaustion, stress, lack of proper food or rest, insufficient personnel to deal with the emergency were factors you must take that into account next time, one way or another. Maybe more personnel need to be available to deal with emergencies. Maybe they need to stock valium for the work crews to keep them calm (that's at least half joke, by the way - I'm sure there are better things to use than valium anyhow if pharmaceuticals did become a reasonable option for stress reduction).

Things we learned from Chernobyl were graphic reactors can blow up and leave a terrible mess, and you really should have better radiation detectors on hand. Things we might learn from this: after 3-4 days people start neglecting important shit while trying to deal with three nuclear reactors that are threatening to melt down. If that is the case then we must design safety systems to account for human limitations. Maybe it's a simple as designating a crews to simply watch certain potential danger spots and do nothing else while others battle on going problems.

For sure, though, NO ONE at Fukushima could possibly have been functioning at true normal efficiency and effectiveness, not after what they've been through since Friday. Yes, absolutely I think that's a factor here, and we better keep it in mind for next time. Remember how easy it is to armchair quarterback from halfway around the world.

ETA: We are not the ones being irradiated.

[Broomstick]

Pfft. I doubt it will do more than slightly elevate cancer rates even in Tokyo in the extreme worst case scenario. I mean, Kiev isn't a dead wasteland after Chernobyl. Calm the fuck down. It's mostly what elevated radiation levels in Tokyo will do to the nuclear power industry.

Oh give me a break, this hasn't exactly been the most stress free couple days.

We understand.

The wind is currently headed south. Intensity falls off rapidly with distance (inverse square law? Is that what I'm thinking of here?)

If you're outside of 30 km from the plant your risk is minimal.

If you're still concerned and require additional piece of mind, go inside, close your doors and windows, and remain inside as much as possible. If you must go outside minimize the time outside. Take a shower when you come back inside. And all that, by the way, is probably way overcautious but if it makes you feel better go ahead and do it. Sometimes, just doing something can make you feel better, I understand that.

Can I point out again that despite a radiation release from TMI many years ago there has been NO, repeat NO long term health problems in the immediate area of that plant? If you aren't at the Fukushima plant you're probably just fine. Jumpy, but given all that you've been through lately that's completely understandable.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Without going into a discussion of Chernobyl, no, I don't think the ones who were supposed to be running the show there did a good job. Certainly there were many acts of self-sacrificing heroism there, but the emergency wasn't well managed. Discarding multiple instruments that were registering off the scale instead of facing the notion that yes, the radiation was off the scale is not doing a good job.

Look, the damn reactor melted through the walls, and burnt through the scale. There is only so much one can possibly do to salvage a situation that went horribly badly no thanks to some idiots who decided to turn off the reactor safeties.

If by anything, the Soviet government mobilized relatively quickly after the incident all things considered.

[Simon_Jester]

Pfft. I doubt it will do more than slightly elevate cancer rates even in Tokyo in the extreme worst case scenario. I mean, Kiev isn't a dead wasteland after Chernobyl. Calm the fuck down. It's mostly what elevated radiation levels in Tokyo will do to the nuclear power industry.

Oh give me a break, this hasn't exactly been the most stress free couple days.

We understand.

The wind is currently headed south. Intensity falls off rapidly with distance (inverse square law? Is that what I'm thinking of here?)

If you're outside of 30 km from the plant your risk is minimal.

If you're still concerned and require additional piece of mind, go inside, close your doors and windows, and remain inside as much as possible. If you must go outside minimize the time outside. Take a shower when you come back inside. And all that, by the way, is probably way overcautious but if it makes you feel better go ahead and do it. Sometimes, just doing something can make you feel better, I understand that.

Can I point out again that despite a radiation release from TMI many years ago there has been NO, repeat NO long term health problems in the immediate area of that plant? If you aren't at the Fukushima plant you're probably just fine. Jumpy, but given all that you've been through lately that's completely understandable.

Looking at his stated location and the map he's a long way from Fukushima: the distance between Fukuoka and Fukushima is about a thousand kilometers, roughly.

That said, I totally understand him freaking out there.

[Todeswind]

To be honest I think I might be less freaked out by it all if there was a finite danger I could classify and point at and say "look all I have to do is avoid that and I'll be ok" but most of what I've been doing is worrying about people I care about to the north. Everyone is on edge, especially with the potential for aftershocks as strong as 7.0 and a potential second tsunami.

The better part of my weekend was spent either assuring people that I am in fact alive or finding out if people I care about are dead. Another american who went to university with me is actually working as an English teacher in Sendai. I just found out he was alive and well yesterday. I didn't even like the guy and I was actually so happy he was alive that I cried.

Other friends of mine were not so lucky.

It's just infuriating to be so helpless and watching the world burn down around you. I spend half the day wanting to scream and the other half wanting to curl up in a ball under my desk and cry.

I have to go on with business as usual for my students but every time I get back to my desk it just seems like there is always just one more fucking thing going on.

[Simon_Jester]

Well, at the very least, you can know that radiation leaks in this situation aren't a major threat to people who live far from Fukushima- and yes, Tokyo is far from Fukushima for these purposes. The radiation is a minor threat, it may affect their health, I won't lie about that. But the effect would be a small, statistical one that they could easily live out their lives without noticing; they will be all right for any normal definition of 'all right.'

Good luck with your students; what do you teach again?

[Todeswind]

English and Cross-cultural studies.

[Thanas]

The German technical assistance team (our earthquake and tsunami specialists) we sent to Japan have called off future efforts to rescue survivors, saying that more than 100 hours after the tsunami there is literally no chance to still find survivors. Japan has also asked that no more assistance shall be sent due to logistical difficulties in getting it there.

[Thanas]

Apparently Tepco also has a history of outright falsifying maintenance protocols and cost-cutting on their reactors.

[Beowulf]

Pfft. I doubt it will do more than slightly elevate cancer rates even in Tokyo in the extreme worst case scenario. I mean, Kiev isn't a dead wasteland after Chernobyl. Calm the fuck down. It's mostly what elevated radiation levels in Tokyo will do to the nuclear power industry.

Oh give me a break, this hasn't exactly been the most stress free couple days.

We understand.

The wind is currently headed south. Intensity falls off rapidly with distance (inverse square law? Is that what I'm thinking of here?)

If you're outside of 30 km from the plant your risk is minimal.

/me puts weather forecaster hat on.

There is very strong directional sheer going on over that area at the moment. Despite the fact that you've got light northerly winds at the surface at the moment, winds not too far up are westerly, so if anything gets up very far (required to actually really go anywhere), it'll get blown into the ocean. Over the next day, model shows that the winds will pick up, and become strong from the NW.

[Seggybop]

Apparently Tepco also has a history of outright falsifying maintenance protocols and cost-cutting on their reactors.

Apparently? I've seen this said elsewhere, but never with any source.

[Lonestar]

The German technical assistance team (our earthquake and tsunami specialists) we sent to Japan have called off future efforts to rescue survivors, saying that more than 100 hours after the tsunami there is literally no chance to still find survivors. Japan has also asked that no more assistance shall be sent due to logistical difficulties in getting it there.

More USN(and MSC) vessels are scheduled to depart in addition to what is already on station. Presumably this is because the USN provides it's own logistical tail whereas flying people into the ground would create more of a drain of resources that the Japanese emergency management agencies simply don't have.

[Thanas]

Apparently Tepco also has a history of outright falsifying maintenance protocols and cost-cutting on their reactors.

Apparently? I've seen this said elsewhere, but never with any source.

German article.

summary:

2000: reactor has to be shut down after a hole in a nuclear rod appears.
Nine years ago: CEO has to step down after TEPCO has falsified reactor maintenance protocolls in at least 29 cases.
2002: cracks in water pipes appear
August 2004: four workers die after hot hydrogen steam escapes
2006: radioactive steam escapes out of a tube
2006: TEPCO allegedly has falsified reactor data in the years 1985-1988, with this data still being used in reactor evaluations until 2005
2007: more falsified reactor data comes to light
June 2008: radioactive water flows out of a basin in which used nuclear rods were being stored.

[Tribun]

This just in: apparently the water in the fuel pool of reactor 4 is boiling. This apparently can't be good.

[Todeswind]

Boiling?.... Um just to double check there is NO chance that it will go hiroshima here will it?

[[R_H]]

I fail to see how what happenned to the Fukishima reactors has any bearing on reactors in Switzerland, a landlocked country that can't suffer tsunamis. Or if they do get one it's so big nothing matters anymore.

Idiocy, ignorance and politics. Elections are coming up, and the parties are trying to score points.

I like the comments German politicians are making, for example:

Green Party co-floor leader Jürgen Trittin told SPIEGEL ONLINE on Saturday that, although this was "no time for self-righteousness," it was a fact that there were nuclear plants in Germany that were vulnerable to the same kind of accident as that in Japan. "And the government has just extended the operating lives of exactly these plants," he said. He pointed out that the plant at Neckarwestheim was "not sufficiently protected" against a meltdown and was also located in an earthquake zone.

IMO he's radiating smugness. I was unaware that tsunamis and huge earthquakes were a problem in Germany.

"Rather, a meltdown is a real and concrete danger that has unimaginable risks for humanity. That's why we need to abandon atomic energy worldwide rather than increase the risks."

(Sigmar Gabriel)

Oh dear me, I had no idea the risks of meltdowns were unimaginable. Well, maybe they are if you're part of the mass media, a politician or an ignorant layperson.

And Kurt Beck, the SPD governor of the western state of Rheinland-Palatinate, who is running for re-election in late March, called for Germany to abandon nuclear energy altogether. "I'm not trying to win any political capital from a catastrophe like this," he told the Leipziger Volkszeitung daily, "but it's my impression that having a risk like this probably makes every sensible person want very urgently to continue on the path toward abandoning uncontrollable nuclear energy."

Yes you are, you cunt.

Ah finally, a voice of something close to reason

In the meantime, Michael Fuchs, an economics expert and deputy head of the CDU's parliamentary group, cautioned against having a new debate on nuclear energy in Germany. "It's not legitimate to draw conclusions about the use of nuclear energy in Germany from things that have happened in Japan," Fuchs told the newspaper Welt am Sonntag.

Fuchs said that it was too early to pass judgment on what really happened in the Japanese nuclear power plant and noted that Japan had completely different risks from Germany. "Since we don't have the same kind of earthquake dangers as there are in Japan," he said, "it would be downright foolish to exploit this case in relation to Germany."

[Broomstick]

Boiling?.... Um just to double check there is NO chance that it will go hiroshima here will it?

No, absolutely not. That sort of .... let's call it "effect" to avoid alarming phrases.... requires very precise conditions that simply can not arrive by chance, any more than a random pile of wood will spontaneously assemble into a house.

This is not good for people at the plant or the immediate vicinity (hence, the evacuation order) but are you far away from there.

As I said, if anyone still feels a need to do something, anything being indoors provides protection. Almost certainly over doing the precaution, but if it makes them feel better why not? Consider is another form of disaster drill.

[Thanas]

It is the greens and the main opposition party. What do you expect?

That said, unless TEPCO manages to get the thing under control, nuclear energy might be dead for the next decade. Because if one cannot trust the companies not to screw with such important things and nuclear regulators missed it, then that is a huge trust loss.

[Thanas]

Here is Salon's current summary:

-- Dai-ichi Unit 1: Some uranium pellets in the fuel core have already melted. Workers trying to prevent total meltdown, released steam in attempt to lower pressure in reactor vessel. Led to hydrogen explosion that blew away much of the containment building. Reactor vessel said to be intact. Regular cooling methods have failed; large amounts of seawater being pumped into reactor vessel to try cooling the severely overheated uranium core. Offsite radiation has been reported.

-- Dai-ichi Unit 2: Ability to cool unit has been lost. Officials say fuel rods have been fully exposed, at least twice. An attempt to channel seawater into the reactor failed due to stuck rod, so officials were trying to spray cool water on the top of the reactor vessel. Explosion occurred early Tuesday at this reactor. Partial fuel melt believed to have already occurred.

-- Dai-ichi Unit 3: Hydrogen explosion on Monday. Radiation believed released. Officials using seawater to cool the unit. Partial meltdown also has occurred.

-- Daini units 1, 2 and 4: Retained offsite power, but operators were experiencing equipment failures and increased pressure inside the containment vessels. There have been problems with residual heat removal systems.

-- Onagawa units 1, 2 and 3: Officials have said they'd detected higher-than-permitted radiation levels. When the levels fell, they said the radiation could have been from a release at the Dai-ichi units.

[mr friendly guy]

It is the greens and the main opposition party. What do you expect?

That said, unless TEPCO manages to get the thing under control, nuclear energy might be dead for the next decade. Because if one cannot trust the companies not to screw with such important things and nuclear regulators missed it, then that is a huge trust loss.

Nuclear power might become dead in countries like Germany. I can't imagine France doing it. Meanwhile the country which plans the largest nuclear roll out in history has said it will persist in its plans.

Xinhua

BEIJING, March 12 (Xinhua) -- China will not change its plan for developing nuclear power projects but will learn a lesson after a massive earthquake in Japan resulted in a radioactive leakage, Vice Minister of Environmental Protection Zhang Lijun said Saturday.

"China has 13 sets of nuclear power installations in operation and tests have shown all of them are safe," Zhang told a press conference on the sidelines of the national parliamentary session in Beijing.

China is "keeping a close eye" on the development of the earthquake's impact on Japan's nuclear facilities, he said.

"Some lessons we learn from Japan will be considered in the making of China's nuclear power plans," he said. "But China will not change its determination and plan for developing nuclear power."

So the nuclear scare isn't all doom and gloom.

[Falarica]

Both the Telegraph and Times (behind its pay wall) are running pro-nuclear power stories here in the UK. Even the opposition isn't (immediately) jumping on the bandwagon!

The fate of the Japanese nuclear power stations damaged by Friday’s tsunami remains uncertain. There is continuing anxiety at the possibility of a core meltdown. Countries around the world are watching the unfolding crisis with a mixture of compassion for the Japanese people, and unease about the resilience of an electricity source on which many depend. Britain has recently – and belatedly (because of dithering by the last government) – decided to proceed with a new generation of nuclear reactors, to replace the ageing plants that will be decommissioned over the next eight years. It is imperative that not even a calamity in Japan should divert the Government from this path.

Even with a revived nuclear programme, Britain faces energy shortages in the medium term and is vulnerable to a sudden disruption of oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. The civil war in Libya and the renewed unrest in Bahrain provide further evidence that these cannot be relied upon. As David Cameron said in the Commons yesterday, the reactors planned for Britain are not the same design as those in Japan and nor is this country in a seismically active region. But the green lobby has been quick to jump on Japan’s woes to call into question once again the wider safety of nuclear power.

A review of the risks has been ordered by Chris Huhne, the Energy Secretary, who once described nuclear energy as a “tried, tested and failed technology”. He has since changed his mind, shifting policy away from the last government’s obsession with renewables and towards a more balanced strategy, in which nuclear will play a prominent role. This is the right approach. We trust that Mr Huhne’s review represents a reassurance measure, not a retreat.

Italy appears to be pushing towards a reintroduction of nuclear power as well. Although there will be a referendum on the issue in the near future.

Reuters

Enel SpA (ENEI.MI) will press ahead to launch nuclear power in Italy as part of a 31 billion euro ($43.22 billion) spending budget in the next five years, the Italian utility said in a business plan on Tuesday.

Presenting its 2011-2015 business blueprint in London, Enel said it would improve its energy mix in Italy by developing nuclear power, along with clean coal and liquefied natural gas.

Nuclear costs for operators in Europe and elsewhere are expected to rise and their plans be delayed after the escalating damage to reactors in Japan after last week's earthquake and tsunami.

Enel has agreed with France's EDF (EDF.PA) to develop four reactors in Italy. Enel has 3,500 megawatts of nuclear capacity in Spain and 1,800 MW in the Slovak Republic, rising to 2,800 MW by end-2015.

The centre-right government of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi vowed to relaunch nuclear power in Italy after it was banned in 1987. A referendum on nuclear plant building this year may derail the plans.

As part of its nuclear expansion, Enel plans to spend 2.7 billion euros to complete work at its Mochovce plant in Slovakia.

Edit: Forgot to include links to articles.

[His Divine Shadow]

According to someone in SA the radiation peak in Tokoy should've been equivalent to 0.809~ microsieverts per hour. And to put that in perspective Denver on a normal day has background radiation of 1.14 microsieverts per hour.

[Danny Bhoy]

It is the greens and the main opposition party. What do you expect?

That said, unless TEPCO manages to get the thing under control, nuclear energy might be dead for the next decade. Because if one cannot trust the companies not to screw with such important things and nuclear regulators missed it, then that is a huge trust loss.

Nuclear power might become dead in countries like Germany. I can't imagine France doing it. Meanwhile the country which plans the largest nuclear roll out in history has said it will persist in its plans.

Xinhua

BEIJING, March 12 (Xinhua) -- China will not change its plan for developing nuclear power projects but will learn a lesson after a massive earthquake in Japan resulted in a radioactive leakage, Vice Minister of Environmental Protection Zhang Lijun said Saturday.

"China has 13 sets of nuclear power installations in operation and tests have shown all of them are safe," Zhang told a press conference on the sidelines of the national parliamentary session in Beijing.

China is "keeping a close eye" on the development of the earthquake's impact on Japan's nuclear facilities, he said.

"Some lessons we learn from Japan will be considered in the making of China's nuclear power plans," he said. "But China will not change its determination and plan for developing nuclear power."

So the nuclear scare isn't all doom and gloom.

I don't think China has much choice for the forseeable future other than depending significantly on nuclear power esp if it wants to move away from fossil fuels. But my concern with China is not so much their continued focus on nuclear but the fact that much of it, like Japan, is earthquake country and adherence to safety codes is less rigourous than Japan where TEPCO has now come under scrutiny.

[PeZook]

Comparing Fukushima to Chernobyl is pointless: even if the reactors melt down completely, it won't be anywhere near Chernobyl bad.

The problem with a meltdown isn't that everything will get irradiated around the plant, but that the reactor's containment buildings would become inacessible and unusueable. Decontamination would become next to impossible, as melted reactor structure and fuel would mix and after cooling down create unholy, extremely radioactive slag.

If you manage to prevent a meltdown, you can always cut the reactor apart, put in drums and move them to a radioactive waste disposal site, thus cleaning up the area. A melted down reactor will become standing there pretty much forever, as far as human timescales are concerned.

Chernobyl had no containment structure and the reactor exploded. That's very, very different from a meltdown.

Of course now a fuel rod pool is on fire, which is actually a bigger danger than a meltdown.

[hongi]

I don't think China has much choice for the forseeable future other than depending significantly on nuclear power esp if it wants to move away from fossil fuels. But my concern with China is not so much their continued focus on nuclear but the fact that much of it, like Japan, is earthquake country and adherence to safety codes is less rigourous than Japan where TEPCO has now come under scrutiny.

Then again, the Chinese government could actually take something away from this disaster and decide to not let companies fuck around with nuclear reactors.