Uprising in Libya

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

My respect for Hillary Clinton has just soared:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/51515.html

This is the same woman who support Mubarak!

[Lonestar]

Even if Qaddafi goes, who's going to take over the country? Qaddafi has effectively crushed opposition to his rule for decades, and I seriously doubt getting rid of him is going to solve the problems. The opposition is hardly united. If anything, getting rid of him is just going to open more can of worms. It's not that I am saying he should stay, but no one seems to be even remotely openly talking about "what next?" but shying away from the issue altogether. Impose democracy? There are no insitutions to support democracy. Nevermind the part of the population pissed off at having their favourite patron kicked off the perch.

The opposition is organized enough that they are at the popint where they have a leadership council having semi-public meetings. To be frank, the anti-Qaddafi forces are much more organized then you are giving them credit for.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Even if Qaddafi goes, who's going to take over the country? Qaddafi has effectively crushed opposition to his rule for decades, and I seriously doubt getting rid of him is going to solve the problems. The opposition is hardly united. If anything, getting rid of him is just going to open more can of worms. It's not that I am saying he should stay, but no one seems to be even remotely openly talking about "what next?" but shying away from the issue altogether. Impose democracy? There are no insitutions to support democracy. Nevermind the part of the population pissed off at having their favourite patron kicked off the perch.

The opposition is organized enough that they are at the popint where they have a leadership council having semi-public meetings. To be frank, the anti-Qaddafi forces are much more organized then you are giving them credit for.

Organized enough to send young men who have zero stomach for battle to man vital check points!?

As it is, the main bulk of the opposition is in Benghazi, but outside there is anything but that clear cut. At one point there was at least one news article that mentioned that ther was in-fighting among the opposition and some cities are effectively city states in their own right.

[Sea Skimmer]

Even if Qaddafi goes, who's going to take over the country? Qaddafi has effectively crushed opposition to his rule for decades, and I seriously doubt getting rid of him is going to solve the problems. The opposition is hardly united. If anything, getting rid of him is just going to open more can of worms. It's not that I am saying he should stay, but no one seems to be even remotely openly talking about "what next?" but shying away from the issue altogether. Impose democracy? There are no insitutions to support democracy. Nevermind the part of the population pissed off at having their favourite patron kicked off the perch. The Eygptians are likely to take advantage, and quite likely, we are simply swapping one dictator for another.

It will open a can of worms, is not the US always looking like it’s on the edge of political chaos? Fear of that uncertainty and violence in the streets over it is why the dictatorships rose so powerfully world wide after the First World War and again after the Second World War. Those dictatorships did not turn out to be viable alternatives, thinking a dictatorship is better is really just selling the human race short. Libya doesn’t have institutions, so what? They can form them, it is not a country entirely without education and money is not a serious problem either. We will have to wait and see if the country splits, or if bitter civil conflict will drag on for years, but I don’t think it will. Gaddafi simply didn’t have any basis to rule other then having been around so long. He didn’t make Libya strong militarily, totally the opposite, he didn’t make it big internationally except through random terror, he didn’t build up the infrastructure, he doesn’t even seem to have made his own life that grandiose in reality (no Saddamistani palace spamming). As far as I can tell he in fact appears to have just hoarded money like crazy until a few years ago when a lot was invested in the west. He has his supporters sure, but we aren’t even remotely seeing all his opponents on TV because so many have lived in terror this whole time and never go outside for a solid month now.

If we swap one dictator for another then so be it; but the point is to give the people a damn chance. They don't have a chance if Gaddafi can hire people from outside the country to boost his numbers enough to afford to bombard cities with his mountains of ammo. Even one single BM-21 rocket launcher could put 20,000 rockets into Benghazi in a month.

[Elfdart]

I was wondering why France and Italy don't intervene. They're much closer and have actual armed forces to work with and import much of their oil from Libya. Are they just hedging their bets in case Ghadafi wins?

[montypython]

I was wondering why France and Italy don't intervene. They're much closer and have actual armed forces to work with and import much of their oil from Libya. Are they just hedging their bets in case Ghadafi wins?

France is the one that's been saying that they can mobilize against gaddafi in a few hours; now that the UN motion has passed.

[Lonestar]

I was wondering why France and Italy don't intervene. They're much closer and have actual armed forces to work with and import much of their oil from Libya. Are they just hedging their bets in case Ghadafi wins?

The CdG has been doing circles in the Med for the past few weeks(planned maintenance was deffered). Honestly, France could probably knock Qacky Qadaffi on his ass by itself, but for whatever reason Sarkozy was insisting on a formal blessing from the UN.

[Thanas]

Because European nations tend to frown on wars without UN blessing.

[Prannon]

I don't have much knowledge on Libya, and this comment is optimistic at best. However, I'd dare say that the speed with which the opposition was able to set up some sort of central authority in Benghazi betrays a better organization than people would give them credit for. At least, this is true for what is supposed to be a decentralized, disorganized opposition. Also, keep in mind that this fight, for them, is their chance to work together and set up communications that will have a lasting impact on what comes next.

All that said, yeah, we can probably expect a chaotic post-Gaddafi Libya, if that is what we are destined for. Egypt and Tunisia haven't been cakewalks by any means.

[Pelranius]

How much longer until military action happens?

I've heard we'll have to wait until Sunday or Monday, but given that the USS Enterprise and Charles De Gaulle are in the vicinity, couldn't it be done sooner?

[Sea Skimmer]

It could have been done within six hours. Clearly not the plan.

Its been said for several days we expect the Arabs to play a major role, and I expect they want to wait wait as long as possible so as to try to integrate whatever Arab air forces are volunteering into the operational plan in a substantial first day role. Its normally a 72 hour from task assigned to mission flown cycle to plan and operate an air campaign. Also it reasonably takes 48-72 hours just to physically generate and launch US heavy bomber sorties and then have it fly the 6,000 mile radius mission. Such heavy assets may or may not be used; it depends on how serious we are about physically shutting down all the runways and obliterating SAM sites or merely putting them out of action or waiting to see if they even can effectively fire (the ones the rebels captured looks like worn crap). After all the resolution does not say declare all out war on Libya, it says take all action required to protect civilians. That can be very broadly read, but I don't think a completely massive attack is coming.

I suspect a contingency plan is in place for immediate strikes if Benghazi comes under attack, or it looks like the forgotten defenders of Misratah who had now held against a siege for three weeks might collapse. They are being bombarded right now on three sides and have been for most of the last week. The last side is the ocean. Its also not unlikely that Sunday-Monday is disinformation and it will come Saturday. I am doubtful that more then armed reconnaissance over the Benghazi-Ajdabiya area will take place Friday, well today now, if even that. If Ajdabiya is still holding out, which it may very well be, then bombing might commence during one of those recon runs.

[Block]

I don't have much knowledge on Libya, and this comment is optimistic at best. However, I'd dare say that the speed with which the opposition was able to set up some sort of central authority in Benghazi betrays a better organization than people would give them credit for. At least, this is true for what is supposed to be a decentralized, disorganized opposition. Also, keep in mind that this fight, for them, is their chance to work together and set up communications that will have a lasting impact on what comes next.

All that said, yeah, we can probably expect a chaotic post-Gaddafi Libya, if that is what we are destined for. Egypt and Tunisia haven't been cakewalks by any means.

It depends a great deal on who's in that central authority. The large tribes already have their own councils and since the opposition is mostly made up of the Eastern tribes of Lybia, it's quite possible that their leadership just put themselves in place as a "coalition." One thing that the journalists haven't really seemed to dig into as far as I can find is who exactly is the higher leadership of the rebels, and it wouldn't particularly shock me if this is as much a tribal struggle for power as it is about freedom, democracy or anything else, although self defense is of course part of it since Qaddafi's men shot up a couple funerals for no reason anyone can seem to figure out.

[Prannon]

It depends a great deal on who's in that central authority. The large tribes already have their own councils and since the opposition is mostly made up of the Eastern tribes of Lybia, it's quite possible that their leadership just put themselves in place as a "coalition." One thing that the journalists haven't really seemed to dig into as far as I can find is who exactly is the higher leadership of the rebels, and it wouldn't particularly shock me if this is as much a tribal struggle for power as it is about freedom, democracy or anything else, although self defense is of course part of it since Qaddafi's men shot up a couple funerals for no reason anyone can seem to figure out.

This is true, and another thing to consider is that the revolution is somewhat headed by former government figures. I think it was the Minister of Justice or something like that who was heading up the Council that has taken residence in Benghazi. Also keep in mind the sheer number of diplomatic defections plus the army units that refused to act and continue to sit on the sidelines. This whole things comes across, on an administration level, as a split of Libyan leadership rather than the pure popular convulsions that gripped Tunisia and Egypt. So yeah, given that Libya appears to have a history of East/West conflict and popular uprisings, I'd say that the "tribal struggle for power" paradigm is quite probably what is happening. Not to the same level of Iraq, but present.

[someone_else]

I was wondering why France and Italy don't intervene. They're much closer and have actual armed forces to work with and import much of their oil from Libya. Are they just hedging their bets in case Ghadafi wins?

Dunno about France, but here in Italy the government is blatantly ignoring what is happening in both Japan and Lybia to focus on saving the ass of Berlusconi from his trials with the "epochal justice reform".

And I'd rather hope we don't intervene alone. My country has an already troubled enough economy as-is, and Lybia is going to be a major expense to pacify.

[Aaron]

Heard on the radio just now that the Canadian government is expected to announce 6 CF-18's to be deployed for the no-fly zone. On top of HMCS Charlottetown already on station with the Yanks.

*edit: Fixed spelling error.

[Thanas]

France is apparently itching to go in. They remind me of a bulldog that is held back by its master, struggling against the webbing to get at them.

[Dartzap]

David Cameron is currently an hour into a Q&A in the Commons. So far he's confirmed Typhoons, Tornadoes, Tankers and surveillance craft. Seems to be pretty adamant that Arab Leaguers are preparing to be in on it, but for obvious reasons isnt saying who they be.

I'm currently wandering if this will lead to a freeze in the cuts to some of the military, similar to what happened during the Falklands conflict, especially if it all goes tits up.

[Thanas]

I am pretty sure the USA will jump in at some time. Because they still want to lead the west, and having the EU go alone is kinda contraproductive in that regard.

[Dartzap]

Breaking: Gaddaffi has ordered an immediate ceasefire.

[wautd]

That was quick
I mean, the other day he was treatening to shoot down civilian aircraft but I guess he knew his bluff was far fetched.

[Thanas]

This is a very smart move on his part. He tries to wait the westerners out by either forcing them to attack him or to continue patrols - and when they are gone, guess what happens.

[HMS Sophia]

Ok, someone help, because my brain is deciding not too work properly:
What does this ceasefire mean for the no-fly-zone proposition?
For the Forces at sea like HMS York and such?
For the Rebels?
And what will it lead too?

I'm blaming my brain fail on the essay I'm writing

[wautd]

Appearantly the city of Misrata is still being bombed but perhaps they didn't got the message yet.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

That was quick
I mean, the other day he was treatening to shoot down civilian aircraft but I guess he knew his bluff was far fetched.

A ceasefire just means that he now has time to establish a logistical train to bring shells to his tanks and artillery and bring in more mercenaries. That way, when it (inevitably) breaks down, he'll be able to roll up the rebellion under a hail of high explosives and canister shot. Of course, he'll have to do it carefully, since (ideally) Western warplanes will be making daily patrols. But, if Gaddafi is determined not to go, then he can afford to wait out the West. Again, time is his friend; since it gives him time to get more of his heavy stuff out of desert storage. It's not the friend of the rebellion, unless Egypt is secretly shipping them their T-62s out of storage.

[salm]

How can he order a ceasefire? Wouldn´t the rebels have to agree to one first?
Had the rebells ordered a ceasefire would Gaddafis troups have stoped shooting?

This ceasefire order is worth nothing.