Ireland, land of no private banks

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Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Tribun »

Guess what, the Irish banks failed the stress test. What the article doesn't say is, that thus the government is forced to now completely nationalise the banking sector of Ireland. Yup, there will be no private banks left in Ireland.

This gives you a great case study how a corrupt banking system can royally fuck up and then go to hell, taking an entire country down with it. A country, which was high on what the banks gave them, until all broke down.
The Republic of Ireland's banks need an extra 24bn euros (£21.2bn) to survive the financial crisis.

The figure follows a stress test on the Irish banking system by a group of independent experts and the country's central bank.

Four lenders were tested - Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, Educational Building Society (EBS) and the Irish Life & Permanent.

Allied Irish Banks needs most money, and will have to raise 13.5bn euros.

Bank of Ireland needs 5.2bn euros, EBS 1.5bn euros, and Irish Life 4bn euros.

The total amount poured into the Irish banks since the financial crisis will now be close to 70bn euros.

Professor Patrick Honohan, governor of the central bank, said: "The new requirements are needed to restore market confidence, and ensure banks have enough capital to meet even the markets' darkest estimates."

Dublin already owns most of Anglo Irish Bank, Allied Irish Banks and the EBS following previous rescues of the banks.

Mr Honohan said it was likely that, as part of the next infusion of funds, the other two banks to avoid nationalisation - Bank of Ireland and Irish Life & Permanent - would now have be taken into state control.

Money set aside from the 85bn euro EU-IMF bail-out agreed in November will be used to fund the latest recapitalisation.

The banks will be set six-monthly - unpublished - targets to reduce their huge borrowings over the next few years through a process of asset sales.

Mr Honohan said, however, that the banks should be able to avoid 'fire sales' that would cut the amount of money raised from disposals.

Marchel Alexandrovich, European financial economist at Jefferies International, said the results of the stress tests were what the financial markets expected.

"Nevertheless, our initial impression is that the question of whether this is enough will continue to linger," he said.

He also pointed that there was no mention of how to treat the banks' senior bondholders, who fear they may forced to incur greater losses on their loans.

Trading in the banks' shares was suspended for the day pending the stress tests announcement.

The European Central Bank (ECB) had been expected to announce a new 60bn euros medium-term financing arrangement, to provide the Irish banks with a reliable source of cash.

But the announcement, which was due at the same time as the Irish central bank announcement, has now been postponed because of a disagreement among the ECB's governing council, according to a report from news agency Reuters.

Mortgage meltdown

Until now, losses in the Irish banking system have stemmed from the collapse of a speculative bubble in the commercial property sector, where billions were borrowed from the banks to fund hotels and shopping malls.

However, the latest stress tests focused instead on an emerging meltdown in the residential sector.

The stress tests assumed a cumulative collapse in property prices of 62% - a level already reached in some parts of the Republic.

It also assumed the unemployment rate peaking at 14.9%, a projection criticised by some economists as too weak, given that the latest data puts the rate at 14.7% already.

However, the Irish central bank hired US asset manager BlackRock to review this year's stress tests to increase their credibility.

A previous round of tests failed to spot serious problems at the banks shortly before some of them required financial support.

Haircuts

The 70bn euros being poured into the banks is equivalent to almost half of the Irish economy's annual output, or about 17,000 euros per Irish citizen - a burden that the government sees as unacceptable.

The newly-elected Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, has been calling for the banks' lenders to share in the losses, but this is likely to be resisted by other European countries.

In the early stages of the banking crisis in 2009, the government issued a blanket guarantee of its banks' debts.

The Republic's European partners feared a default by Irish banks could trigger a Europe-wide banking crisis.

They insisted that Dublin continue to honour the guarantee as a condition of last year's bail-out - much to the anger of opposition parties that have now taken control of the government.

However, only about 21bn euros of the banks' remaining long-term debts are still covered by the guarantee, according to the Irish Central Bank.

That leaves some 40bn euros of debts that could potentially be given a "haircut", forcing creditors - including UK, US and German banks - to take losses.

As well as the government guarantee and capital injections, the Irish banks have also been the recipient of over 150bn euros of short-term financing from the Irish central bank and the ECB.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by K. A. Pital »

They can nationalize all their banks and be like China. Being nationalized does not prevent a bank from running commercial operations. *laughs*
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Thanas »

I guess I can look forward to another round of "we should just turn them into our colonies" comments regarding Ireland, Greece and Portugal.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by J »

It's not a proper nationalization unless all bank debts are properly liquidated and crammed down prior to the government buyout. Unfortunately they can't do that without bankrupting various EU banks so they'll try to squeeze more money from the Irish and use EU financial stabilization fund money to bailout the Irish banks so that EU banks don't go under. Rinse & repeat until money runs out or the Irish decide they're not going to take it up the butt any longer.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Edi »

The refusal to make banks eat their losses has been pissing me off like no tomorrow ever since all this shit started. If that's not done, there will never be a healthy financial sector. As long as bank deposits are guaranteed, that's all that needs to happen. They need an early 1990s Scandinavian style financial sector restructuring in Ireland, as well as a lot of other places.

All the other banks that made bad loans and the investors who lose their shirts in that can go fuck themselves.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

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Edi wrote:The refusal to make banks eat their losses has been pissing me off like no tomorrow ever since all this shit started. If that's not done, there will never be a healthy financial sector. As long as bank deposits are guaranteed, that's all that needs to happen. They need an early 1990s Scandinavian style financial sector restructuring in Ireland, as well as a lot of other places.

All the other banks that made bad loans and the investors who lose their shirts in that can go fuck themselves.
I don't understand why investors need a 100% return financed by taxpayers. They knew the risk of investing, this time the lost out. Other than a lot of whining, is there anything overly negative that would happen if these losses were written off?
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by J »

bobalot wrote:I don't understand why investors need a 100% return financed by taxpayers. They knew the risk of investing, this time the lost out. Other than a lot of whining, is there anything overly negative that would happen if these losses were written off?
It would instantly and formally bankrupt a ton of banks & investors who are currently pretending to be solvent. These parties are already deader than a dodo under proper accounting rules, they merely pretend they aren't through Enron accounting. If losses are properly written off they can no longer pretend to be solvent. So nothing negative, other than what they deserve.

With regards to my previous post...

http://www.independent.ie/national-news ... 03975.html
Property tax on way within year
Friday April 01 2011

THE Government has been ordered by the EU/IMF to impose a property tax on all homeowners within a year.

The controversial annual tax is expected to be announced in December's Budget -- even though it was not in the Programme for Government.

The imposition of the tax and the precise timeline for its roll-out are key requirements for Ireland to avail of the EU/IMF €85bn bailout package.

And the Department of the Environment confirmed that the tax will rise within a year of being introduced.

Details of how and when the so-called 'site-valuation tax' will be introduced and increased are in a briefing note prepared by civil servants for Environment Minister Phil Hogan. The document has been obtained by the Irish Independent.

Under the heading "EU/IMF requirements", the document states that Ireland must "adopt a property tax by end Q4 (quarter 4) 2011", adding that this tax must then be increased by the end of 2012.

The Fine Gael/Labour Programme for Government said only that such a tax would be "considered".
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by KrauserKrauser »

Wow, that's hilarious.

This ties in nicely with an article in the WSJ talking about how the Investment Banks and Hedge Funds are starting to deal in Subprime mortgages again.

Fool me once, etc.

The longer they put off the correction the worse it is going to be, but this is the kick the can generation that is currently in power. Should we really expect anything different.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by PainRack »

bobalot wrote:
Edi wrote:The refusal to make banks eat their losses has been pissing me off like no tomorrow ever since all this shit started. If that's not done, there will never be a healthy financial sector. As long as bank deposits are guaranteed, that's all that needs to happen. They need an early 1990s Scandinavian style financial sector restructuring in Ireland, as well as a lot of other places.

All the other banks that made bad loans and the investors who lose their shirts in that can go fuck themselves.
I don't understand why investors need a 100% return financed by taxpayers. They knew the risk of investing, this time the lost out. Other than a lot of whining, is there anything overly negative that would happen if these losses were written off?
A big part of money markets nowadays are funds intended for retirement purposes as well as soverign wealth funds.

So...... yeah, wiping out people retirement while hobbling states/countries ability to actually pay for more services for retirement. May I mention the ongoing silver tsunami as well as baby boomers retirement? Yup.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

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PainRack wrote:A big part of money markets nowadays are funds intended for retirement purposes as well as soverign wealth funds.

So...... yeah, wiping out people retirement while hobbling states/countries ability to actually pay for more services for retirement. May I mention the ongoing silver tsunami as well as baby boomers retirement? Yup.
And what exactly are these idiots doing investing in high risk high return financial instruments? Retirement funds and SWFs should be sitting primarily in the safest low return investments they can find, something like German Bunds and Aussie & Canadian government bonds. You'd have to be monumentally stupid or greedy to invest money into Irish banks, yeah you get to collect a 25% yield, but that's because there's a 50% chance the banks will go tits up within a year. It's not like these investors didn't know that. They stepped into the shit because they knew there was a very good chance they'd get bailed out by everyone else if their investment went bad, and that frankly is despicable. I believe they call that moral hazard.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Pelranius »

Am I a bad person for thinking this as the second coming of St. Patrick?

Too bad there aren't any penalties for incompetence if you're a pension fund manager (not that I know of, unless you count failure to perform due diligence).
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by aieeegrunt »

PainRack wrote:
bobalot wrote:
Edi wrote:The refusal to make banks eat their losses has been pissing me off like no tomorrow ever since all this shit started. If that's not done, there will never be a healthy financial sector. As long as bank deposits are guaranteed, that's all that needs to happen. They need an early 1990s Scandinavian style financial sector restructuring in Ireland, as well as a lot of other places.

All the other banks that made bad loans and the investors who lose their shirts in that can go fuck themselves.
I don't understand why investors need a 100% return financed by taxpayers. They knew the risk of investing, this time the lost out. Other than a lot of whining, is there anything overly negative that would happen if these losses were written off?
A big part of money markets nowadays are funds intended for retirement purposes as well as soverign wealth funds.

So...... yeah, wiping out people retirement while hobbling states/countries ability to actually pay for more services for retirement. May I mention the ongoing silver tsunami as well as baby boomers retirement? Yup.
That sounds like fucking justice to me. The alternative is what is happening now, which is bullshitting and trickery till the mess can be offloaded to the next generation. I've already mentally prepared myself to be literally working till I die to pay for their fucking sins. Thank God my family genetics seem to predict that I'll stay vaguely thirtiesh till I abrubtly die in my 50's or 60's.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

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aieeegrunt wrote:That sounds like fucking justice to me. The alternative is what is happening now, which is bullshitting and trickery till the mess can be offloaded to the next generation. I've already mentally prepared myself to be literally working till I die to pay for their fucking sins.
Heh. In the past, employers would play different racial groups against each other. More lately, they've been playing public sector vs private sector. Recently, they've been manipulating pinheads (like yourself) into raging against their parents' and grandparents' generations. This is really the most insidious load of shit: it's not the fault of the workers that companies (and local government) have given them a shitty pension, run by shitty fund managers.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by aieeegrunt »

Right, being angry at somebody running amok and then stiffing me with the bill makes me a pinhead.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Faqa »

evilsoup wrote:
aieeegrunt wrote:That sounds like fucking justice to me. The alternative is what is happening now, which is bullshitting and trickery till the mess can be offloaded to the next generation. I've already mentally prepared myself to be literally working till I die to pay for their fucking sins.
Heh. In the past, employers would play different racial groups against each other. More lately, they've been playing public sector vs private sector. Recently, they've been manipulating pinheads (like yourself) into raging against their parents' and grandparents' generations. This is really the most insidious load of shit: it's not the fault of the workers that companies (and local government) have given them a shitty pension, run by shitty fund managers.
Those investors would have made a profit off those pension funds if they'd invested them properly. If they are not accordingly punished for investing poorly, then it's not an investment, it's a fucking government handout, and if you're going to do one of those, cut out the shitbird middlemen and just pay out the pensions directly to the old people.

BY ALL MEANS, if the government feels the need to backup pension agreements, it should do so. I don't see why it should bail out the fund managers while doing so, ESPECIALLY since they have proven themselves to be somewhat less trustworthy guardians of said fund than a goat farting Swahili into a horn, the notes of which are picked up by a computer which translates them to Morse code, randomizes them, turns them into poo particles then gives them to monkeys to throw at a wall of funds.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by OneEyedTeddyMcGrew »

Guaranteeing the banks at the start of the crisis was an absolutely catastrophic mistake, and everything that's gone wrong since can be tied back to that one decision. This article, written at the time, sums it up nicely with the benefit of hindsight:
On September 30, 2008, the Irish government announced that it had put a guarantee on the entire liability side – except for the equity – of the balance sheets of the six largest majority-Irish-owned banks. This includes all deposits (retail, commercial, institutional and interbank), covered bonds, senior debt and dated subordinated debt (lower tier II). The guarantee will cover all existing and new facilities issued from midnight on 29 September 2008, and will expire at midnight on 28 September 2010.

Unlawful

Clearly, the Irish central bank, the regulator and the government did not do their homework. The guarantee violates EU rules on state aid in a number of ways.

* First, the aid is selective in a way that violates EU rules. It discriminates between banks incorporated in the Republic of Ireland, based on the ownership of the banks. The Irish authorities have recognised this, and are admitting majority-foreign-owned banks incorporated in Ireland one bank at a time. Before long, all subsidiaries of foreign banks will be covered and this will cease to be an issue.
* Second, the guarantee is scheduled to last for 2 years. Under EU rules, state aid cannot be granted for more than six months.
* Third, the guarantee obviously has an effect on competition and trade. Irish banks, safe in the knowledge that their depositors will not run (for the next couple of years at any rate) and that other creditors will be happy to renew any maturity debt and extend new credit (at least with a maturity of up to two years) have received a huge funding cost subsidy from the Irish taxpayer. There is supposed to be a payment for the guarantee, but this will not eliminate the international competitive advantage gained by the Irish banks. That this is no idle speculation is evident from the following e-mail sent out by the Irish Nationwide Building Society on Wednesday October 1:
o Irish Nationwide Building Society – Government Guaranteed UK Savings Accounts
+ As you may be aware on Tuesday 30th September the Irish Government put in place a guarantee arrangement to safeguard all deposits (retail, commercial, institutional and Interbank), covered bonds, senior debt and subordinated debt (lower tier II) with Irish Banks.
+ As Irish Nationwide qualifies under this scheme we now represent the safest place to deposit money in Europe with a AAA guarantee from a country with the lowest national debt to GDP ratio of any AAA country.
+ Irish Nationwide are offering the following GBP£ products for savers:
+ Six month 6.75% fixed rate bond (Irish Government Guarantee for any amount)
+ One year 7.10% fixed rate bond (Irish Government Guarantee for any amount)
+ Money in these accounts are guaranteed regardless of the size of deposit and represent the best value in the UK market.

My first response on reading this was to go out and short this building society despite the guarantee. There are no safe investments yielding a sterling rate of return of more than seven percent. Then I realised (a) shorting was illegal and (b) this was a mutual society and not a public limited company. Still, it is easy to see, based on this and similar idiocies, why the Irish banks and building societies were among the most vulnerable in Europe before the government guaranteed their liabilities.

Obviously the British government will be all over Dublin and the European Commission to end this grotesque distortion of the competitive playing field. The most likely solution is a limit on the amount of sterling deposits the Irish banks can issue.

Beggar-thy-neighbour

Financial crises may not be the best time to make friends and influence people, but the Irish guarantee is the most ‘in-your-face’ beggar-thy-neighbour provocation since medieval armies catapulted bubonic-plague-ridden corpses into the cities they were besieging. Between the attempt to favour Irish shareholders at the expense of foreign shareholders and the poaching of UK sterling deposits (and indeed euro deposits anywhere else in the euro area) through subsidy-fuelled interest rate offers, Ireland should not be surprised to encounter limited support and solidarity in the EU the next time the country is up against it, for whatever issue.

Shortsighted

A 100 percent guarantee of all deposits is over the top. It’s way more than what is required to discourage unsightly queues outside the banks and building societies. An insured limit (with a guaranteed speedy pay-out) of € 100,000.00 would be enough to stop deposit runs.

Guaranteeing the debt of the banks as well is plain silly, unless the guarantee had been accompanied by a haircut (charge) on the debt holders. Bank debt holders, along with equity holders, permitted the banks to engage in the reckless property- and construction-related lending that has blown such huge holes in their balance sheets. The debt holders earned risk premia while the going was good and should now be made to pay to discourage future similar reckless behaviour.

Only if punishing the debt holders were to endanger systemic stability would there be a reason for making the holders of the debt whole. Clearly, the debt does not create any problems until it matures. Since the Irish banks have to shrink their balance sheets quite significantly, problems with rolling over maturing debt should be manageable; at worst, it might require government guarantees on new debt issued to replace maturing debt (if debt matures at as rate faster than the desired rate of contraction of the Irish banks’ balance sheet).

Instead of having to fund a limited expansion of deposit insurance for its banks, which would have been enough to prevent bank runs, the Irish tax payer has socialised all the funding risk of the banks, except for the equity. There is no upside for the tax payer in this arrangement. The state gets no equity or warrants out of this scheme. It is a straight transfer from the Irish tax payer and the competitors of the Irish banking system, to the shareholders and other creditors of the Irish banks. They have now been rewarded for incompetence and recklessness. The example of the Irish Nationwide Building Society shows us how this inept bail-out will affect the Irish banks’ incentives for future reckless lending. I hope the Irish tax payers have deep pockets.
Original article here.

Note, that's before we set up shit like NAMA, which was basically a government agency set up to buy toxic property/land assets from the banks at a massive loss, since the unholy alliance between land speculators and bankers is pretty much the main reason we got into this mess. You literally had tiny plots of land in Dublin going for millions of Euro, and the banks gave loans to buy it to absolutely anyone. Everybody and their Mum could have seen that it was unsustainable. Last time I checked, NAMA now owned the biggest portfolio (in terms of cost) in the world and if it ever manages to sell it off at a profit I have a lovely bit of oceanfront property in Uzbekistan you might be interested in.

Oh, and I could go on about the rampant corruption, including Anglo-Irish Bank cooking their books by giving shares to ten businessmen (who the government have still refused to name) in exchange for 451 million Euro in loans. Nevermind the fact that the circle of power in Ireland, already a pretty small country, is so small that the regulators, the ministers, the bankers and the property developers responsible for this clusterfuck are all on first name terms with other and routinely go out on golf and dinner dates together.

Regarding the subject at hand, in my opinion it should have happened a long time ago. The entire banking sector was effectively allowed to collapse in the 80s recession and we didn't end up back in the Dark Ages. There are enough foreign banks in Ireland to keep the sector on life support while the domestic banks are reformed root and branch, and their loan books gone over with a fine tooth comb. Maybe we'll even see some criminal charges filed but I hugely doubt it.

What is certain is that the amount of anger on the streets about how the government has handled the mess, and at the level of corruption and lack of accountability at all levels is absolutely staggering. However, to some extent the recent election has been rather cathartic. If you'd told me even 5 years ago that Fianna Fail would today be the 3rd party in Parliament I would have laughed in your face. The problem now is if Fine Gael/Labour are seen to be continuing the policies of the old government (and unfortunately so far they have in most regards, although it's VERY early days yet) that anger will turn into something a great deal uglier.

God I'm glad I emigrated.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by OneEyedTeddyMcGrew »

Apologies for the double post, but there's one other tidbit I forgot to mention. If Britain had put the same amount of money as a proportion of their GDP (45%) and GNP (55%) as Ireland did to bail their banks out they'd have spent £700 BILLION. As it stands, Britain spent a tenth of that bailing out Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds, Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley. The amount of money we're talking about here is mind-blowing, and the taxpayers are getting by far the worst of the shakedown.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by evilsoup »

^^Oh, I would massively prefer it if the government would just pay everyone a decent pension. My argument is with idiots blaming the wrong people (workers and pensioners), as opposed to those responsible (the upper class -- the politicians, bankers, and assorted excreta).

Fuck, I think we (the UK specifically, but I'm sure it applies in Ireland too) should have just nationalised the banks while we bailed them out. That didn't happen either. The point is: not bailing out the pension funds would have plunged tens of thousands of people into poverty. It's annoying that doing so also bails out the pension fund managers.

Hm... maybe some kind of 'blacklist' could be arranged? Anyone on the list has been shown to be a general fuckup, if you have them anywhere near the money, we won't bail you out? Could be a bit blunt, but on the other hand fuck it.

^Yeah, Ireland's basically fucked (again). The only good thing is that those deep-fried Scottish nationalist wankers have shut the fuck up about 'Celtic Tigers'.
Damnit, I keep pressing 'Preview' and people keep posting. 45% GDP? Fucking what? What? How..? Why aren't the Irish rioting in the fuckingfecking streets?
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Thanas »

It has been proven time and time again that state-managed pension fonds (or pension fonds with heavy Government oversight) are much more safer than private enterprises being left alone. But due to the infamous fear of "socialism" (as if, say, Germany and France are socialist dictatorships) the anglo-saxon countries refuse to do any progress on the issue. Heck, when Bismarck of all people implemented something, chances are that it is not going to favor socialists. But hey, welcome to the 1860s....
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Zaune »

Make that the 1830s, at least from Britain's point of view. By the 1860s in this country it had begun to sink in that people who were too old to work but who had no private income or surviving relatives deserved somewhat preferential treatment to the able-bodied unemployed. Not much was actually being done about this, of course -we'd be on the eve of the First World War before real pensions were introduced- but the politicians of the day were at least making the appropriate noises.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by aerius »

Thanas wrote:It has been proven time and time again that state-managed pension fonds (or pension fonds with heavy Government oversight) are much more safer than private enterprises being left alone. But due to the infamous fear of "socialism" (as if, say, Germany and France are socialist dictatorships) the anglo-saxon countries refuse to do any progress on the issue.
I've had enough of your Euro-Commie lies, everyone knows that France and Germany are socialist shitholes where it's impossible to earn an honest living without getting everything taxed away and given to a bunch of useless welfare bums.


The problem with private pension funds is everyone thinks they can get something for free; the workers think they can contribute 5% of their salary a year and end up with full retirement pay, the fund managers think they're good enough to not only grow the fund fast enough to make the above possible, but also skim a bunch off the top to pay their bonuses, and companies think it's great since they get to outsource all this stuff to the fund managers. And it works for a while, it's basically a pyramid scheme but as long as you get enough suckers workers signing up for the plan it can work, but as soon as you don't have enough workers entering the system it blows up, just like a pyramid scheme.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by evilsoup »

Thanas wrote:It has been proven time and time again that state-managed pension fonds (or pension fonds with heavy Government oversight) are much more safer than private enterprises being left alone.
While this fits in perfectly with my own biases, may I ask if you know of any hard information backing this up?
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Thanas »

evilsoup wrote:
Thanas wrote:It has been proven time and time again that state-managed pension fonds (or pension fonds with heavy Government oversight) are much more safer than private enterprises being left alone.
While this fits in perfectly with my own biases, may I ask if you know of any hard information backing this up?

Number of German state pension funds failing: 0.
Number of heavily-state-regulated pension funds failing: 0

Number of American 401(k)s and business pensions failing: A lot. Go to page three.
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by evilsoup »

Okay. Do you know what the cost of these state-funded pensions is in relation to the private funds, taking into account bailouts? I know it sounds like a stupid question, but it would just be nice to know.
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Thanas
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Re: Ireland, land of no private banks

Post by Thanas »

No, but I am sure you can google it.
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