Hypothetical on Future Techonologies

[Chirios]

Let's say that by 2040 a team in Japan has figured out how to produce a superconducting metal at about $4000 USD per tonne, that shows superconducting properties below 400Kelvin; around the same time, IBM or some other American company figures out how to produce a quantum computer. What are the immediate effects and what are the long term effects?

[Sarevok]

See the price of copper here

At $4000 per tonne this superconducting metal is only slightly more expensive than copper. To say the world changes would be an understatement, wiring everywhere from power grids to inside electrical devices gets replaced as quickly as this mythical superconductor can be produced.

quantum computer

If I am not mistaken quantum computers are already in specialized use for tasks such as cryptography. The NSA reputedly posses one for this purpose.

What does this particular quantum computer do ?

[Iroscato]

Society as we know it would be upended, to put it mildly. As Sarevok said, now allow me elaborate a little...
Electricity would become massively, massively cheaper as they would no longer need to up the voltage to transport it across countries. Computers would become...unrecognisable. If a full on quantum computer was made at the same time as superconducting material, computers would make a (cough) quantum leap in power and usefulness.

Maglev trains would be much easier and cheaper to build thanks to superconducting metal requiring a fraction of the power to generate magnetic fields, meaning the trains would at last, run on time. And at 400mph.

There are so many uses, my tiny, sleep-deprived brain couldn't even begin to list them all. Basically, what I'm trying to say is, everything we do, every electrical device we would ever use, would change forever.

[Lord of the Abyss]

Maglev trains would be much easier and cheaper to build thanks to superconducting metal requiring a fraction of the power to generate magnetic fields, meaning the trains would at last, run on time.

A "fraction of the power" being zero I understand. One of the useful traits of superconductors is that you can use them to passively levitate permanent, unpowered magnets. And with it superconducting at 400 K you won't need to cool the superconductor for that application, either; that's 260 F I believe.

You'd see a proliferation of "magnetic bearings", where things like driveshafts & gearshafts are levitated instead of held in place by bearings. That will increase the efficiency and durability of all sorts of devices by eliminating friction.

[Iroscato]

Maglev trains would be much easier and cheaper to build thanks to superconducting metal requiring a fraction of the power to generate magnetic fields, meaning the trains would at last, run on time.

A "fraction of the power" being zero I understand. One of the useful traits of superconductors is that you can use them to passively levitate permanent, unpowered magnets. And with it superconducting at 400 K you won't need to cool the superconductor for that application, either; that's 260 F I believe.

You'd see a proliferation of "magnetic bearings", where things like driveshafts & gearshafts are levitated instead of held in place by bearings. That will increase the efficiency and durability of all sorts of devices by eliminating friction.

Is it zero? I didn't know lol. Well, that's even better then

[doom3607]

You'd probably get full AI in fairly short order, since computers would be powerful enough. Actually, they might even be able to begin "brain uploading" although I think the only real way to do that is to replace a person's brain bit-by-bit in a bunch of seperate surgeries, copying over what was on each bit of flesh into the bit of circuitry.

[aerius]

You'd see a proliferation of "magnetic bearings", where things like driveshafts & gearshafts are levitated instead of held in place by bearings. That will increase the efficiency and durability of all sorts of devices by eliminating friction.

No, you wouldn't. Magnetic bearings can't carry as much load as conventional bearings and they absolutely suck at dealing with impact loads. If you dropped the clutch in your car you will instantly trash every magnetic bearing in the drivetrain whereas conventional ball & roller bearings can deal with this just fine. Try to use mag bearings on the wheels and they'll self-destruct as soon as you hit a pothole.

Where you would see them is in something like a hard drive, it's a nice light load which spins at high speed with no impact loads. That's what magnetic bearings are good for, not pieces of machinery which see large loads and get banged around.

[Rabid]

About cheap High-Temperature superconductors :


Price of copper :

Yesterday's price : between € 6600 and € 6700 per Metric Ton.
At the beginning of the month (March) : more than € 7100 per Metric Ton

And given that we would need far less supraconductor cables to transport the same amount of electricity that we need with copper (an exemple of why here)...

I rest my case.



Power Storage :

If my physic isn't wrong, I think it could allow the creation hyper-efficient battery/super-capacitor, with all the associated benefits.
See here : http://prod.sandia.gov/techlib/access-c ... 932477.pdf


Transportation / Space technology :

As far as I know, High-Temperature Superconductors could allow the construction of cost-effective Magneto-Hydrodynamic thingies...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetohydrodynamic_drive
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetopla ... c_thruster

The urban legend that is the hypersonic aircraft “Aurora” say that it allegedly use(d ?) MHD as a mean of propulsion to reach speeds in the range of Mach 5+. Maybe : that's Conspiracy Theory territory.


Better heat-sinks :

Tell me if I'm wrong but I think I red somewhere that superconducting materials are exceptionally good thermal conductor. That may have important repercussions in a large number of research/engineering fields. Plus, at a price inferior to the one of copper, we would FINALLY have silent computers.

[Sarevok]

You'd probably get full AI in fairly short order, since computers would be powerful enough. Actually, they might even be able to begin "brain uploading" although I think the only real way to do that is to replace a person's brain bit-by-bit in a bunch of seperate surgeries, copying over what was on each bit of flesh into the bit of circuitry.

Eh no. Quantum computers are not brute force machines. They excel at certain tasks but are not general purpose number crunchers like the microprocessor in your computer. You would not want and probably could not make a quantum computer run an AI or do brain emulation.


@Rabid

I can't believe you forgot THE application for superconductors, the one scientists and science fiction writers alike have been dreaming about for ages.

Fusion reactors.

[Rabid]

@Rabid

I can't believe you forgot THE application for superconductors, the one scientists and science fiction writers alike have been dreaming about for ages.

Fusion reactors.

Well, that's because I think that this solution is more cost-effective than magnetic confinment.

But yeah, other than this false excuse I forgot.

[aerius]

Society as we know it would be upended, to put it mildly. As Sarevok said, now allow me elaborate a little...
Electricity would become massively, massively cheaper as they would no longer need to up the voltage to transport it across countries.

Actually you'd still need to up the voltage depending on what your power source is. Superconductors have a current density limit, meaning you can only flow so much current down a wire before it stops superconducting and blows up. You can't replace an existing wire with a superconducting wire of the same size and expect it to carry 10 million amps, it won't, it'll carry more than copper or whatever they make powerlines out of these days but not 10,000 times more. You'll still need high voltage lines for transporting power if you want to keep wire sizes reasonable.

Also, while it will make electricity cheaper it's not going to reduce the cost by 90% or anything like that. My electricity bill has a breakdown on how much of it is the power cost and transportation cost along with other fees & charges. About 40% of my bill is what they call the delivery charge, this includes the actual cost of transporting the electricity and the costs of maintaining the wires and distribution system. While there are no losses in the wires of a superconducting grid system, someone still needs to maintain those wires and run the switches to route power from one place to another and maintain all that equipment as well. That delivery charge ain't going to zero.

As a rough guess, I might see 15-20% knocked off my power bill. It's nice, but it's not revolutionary or anything.

[Sarevok]

Well superconducting wires would make some renewable energy ideas immense more useful. For example consider solar power. It is utterly useless at night. But superconducting wires could bring power from the day side across continents and oceans. Doing that via wire copper wiring would be...impossible from economic perspective.

[Rabid]

Yes. With cheap superconductors, we could imagine the US benefitting from an energy deal with the Sahara's Nations (which would be dumb, though, given that the US could already be spamming the Nevada or Mexico with solar cells in the first place if need be). Or Australia supplying Asia with cheap electricity.

Although there's not really so much problem ("no electricity produced at night") in the first place if you choose to make your solar central Thermal ones. With those you can stock the heat from the day to use it at night, and the efficiency during the day is higher, as far as I know, than the one of photovoltaic cells, $ for $ (construction and maintenance) and square meter for square meter ; at least for a "large" energy plant (say, more than 50 Megawatts).

[Simon_Jester]

Maglev trains would be much easier and cheaper to build thanks to superconducting metal requiring a fraction of the power to generate magnetic fields, meaning the trains would at last, run on time.

A "fraction of the power" being zero I understand. One of the useful traits of superconductors is that you can use them to passively levitate permanent, unpowered magnets. And with it superconducting at 400 K you won't need to cool the superconductor for that application, either; that's 260 F I believe.

You may still need to cool them for certain operations, but the beauty of it is that with 400 K superconductors you can use a water jacket for cooling. Water is a great coolant- very high specific heat capacity, very cheap, and for this purpose almost ideal.

Water beats the hell out of cryogenics, I'll say that much.

Anyway, one thing I can confidently predict is a massive squeal of delight from the particle accelerator community- whether anyone would actually care is another question. [sighs]

[Chirios]

Maglev trains would be much easier and cheaper to build thanks to superconducting metal requiring a fraction of the power to generate magnetic fields, meaning the trains would at last, run on time.

A "fraction of the power" being zero I understand. One of the useful traits of superconductors is that you can use them to passively levitate permanent, unpowered magnets. And with it superconducting at 400 K you won't need to cool the superconductor for that application, either; that's 260 F I believe.

You may still need to cool them for certain operations, but the beauty of it is that with 400 K superconductors you can use a water jacket for cooling. Water is a great coolant- very high specific heat capacity, very cheap, and for this purpose almost ideal.

Water beats the hell out of cryogenics, I'll say that much.

Anyway, one thing I can confidently predict is a massive squeal of delight from the particle accelerator community- whether anyone would actually care is another question. [sighs]

400K is still pretty high. 127 degrees celcius, or to think of it another way, just over the boiling point of water.

[Simon_Jester]

Er, that's my point.

For industrial applications it is totally possible to get above that temperature- but the point is that not only are these superconductors hard to overheat, they are easy to cool. It is simple, from an engineering standpoint, to keep things from exceeding the boiling point of water. Far easier than keeping them from exceeding the boiling point of hydrogen or, god forbid, helium.

That's in addition to the fact that you normally won't need special cooling.

[tim31]

Anyway, one thing I can confidently predict is a massive squeal of delight from the particle accelerator community- whether anyone would actually care is another question. [sighs]

Oh yes they would. They'd be at the gates of CERN with their placards screaming HOW DARE YOU THREATEN TO DESTROY THIS PLANET YOU ROTTEN DIRTY SCIENTISTS WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE. And so on down the line.

[Chirios]

Er, that's my point.

For industrial applications it is totally possible to get above that temperature- but the point is that not only are these superconductors hard to overheat, they are easy to cool. It is simple, from an engineering standpoint, to keep things from exceeding the boiling point of water. Far easier than keeping them from exceeding the boiling point of hydrogen or, god forbid, helium.

That's in addition to the fact that you normally won't need special cooling.

Sorry, what I meant was that since the material requires a relatively high temperature it wouldn't be practical for use in the home like some people on this topic have said. Didn't explain it that well.

[Kryten]

Sorry, what I meant was that since the material requires a relatively high temperature it wouldn't be practical for use in the home like some people on this topic have said. Didn't explain it that well.

Superconductors don't require a temperature; they work below a certain temperature, normally a very low one-the current highest known temperature for superconductivity is -124°C

[Starglider]

Eh no. Quantum computers are not brute force machines. They excel at certain tasks but are not general purpose number crunchers like the microprocessor in your computer. You would not want and probably could not make a quantum computer run an AI or do brain emulation.

Existing quantum computers can only work on a very small number of bits (barely into double digits), can only do a very limited set of operations on them, have a very slow cycle time (relative to normal CPUs) and it's a PITA to load the data into the entangled state and (even more so) get it back out again. They're also very large and expensive compared to conventional electronics. The engineering problems involved in resolving any of these issues are huge. Some science fiction authors like to go on about quantum computers with terabyte+ working state sizes, complete programmability and microsecond cycle times (e.g. Greg Egan) but we have literally no idea how to build such a thing and quite a few scientists think it's impossible. It is unclear what kind of 'quantum computer' the OP was thinking of.

A more sensible suggestion would be superconducting CPUs based on this new material and something like Rapid Single Flux Quantum logic. I'm not sure how vulnerable that is to thermal noise at room temperature, but it's a proven technology at cyrogenic temperatures that allows 100 GHz+ effective processor clock speeds with minimal power consumption (currently impractical due to fabrication cost and the lack of a convenient liquid helium supply in the average server closet).