Uprising in Libya

[K. A. Pital]

This thread was correctly reported for off-topic discussion. I'm not sure if this merits a split. I'll let this stay here for now, but if OT discussion continues while the discussion and news about Libya will not be posted here, a split will happen.

[Sea Skimmer]

If people are done posting bullshit; some rather serious shit went down in the past 24 hours with pro Qaddafi troops invading Tunisia to a depth of two and a half miles and occupying part of the town of Dahibah while fighting over the Wazin boarder crossing. They have now been driven back by Tunisian army troops; but this is coming after days of artillery fire landing in Tunisia and a number of smaller scale incursions.

[Raj Ahten]

That is pretty serious provocation right there. At a minimum I see Tunisia bombarding the responsible Libyan troops or a series of localized air strikes coming out of this. That's assuming Tunisia isn't so accupied with its own revolution that it decides to respond. The fact that its troops counter attacked seems to indicate that they will respond in some broader way.

[Sea Skimmer]

Tunisia wants to stay the fuck out of this and has its own internal problems, so I would not expect retaliation at the moment, but it could mean a rise in covert support for the rebels or turning a blind eye to NATO planes overflying Tunisian airspace. As it is Tunisian forces have driven back the attack which seems to have been aimed at pursuing rebels who retreated into Tunisian territory, something which both sides had done the other day, but in those cases the people were simply being disarmed and returned to Libyan soil. This time after shelling Dahibah at least 18 pro Qaddafi vehicles entered Tunisia, so someone had to have ordered this, it wasn't just a few strays who got too gung ho. In any case the border crossing is back under rebel control, a very major blow to Qaddafi that his counter attack could retake but not hold the place after a week of preparation. Another clear sign Qaddafi is running out of trained loyal manpower.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/afric ... 03426.html

Meanwhile to make life even more interesting, NATO naval forces have stopped Qaddafi from mining the harbor approaches at Misrata. That easily could have turned into a shipload of foreign wounded refugees being blown up and sunk... maybe that would have galvanized Europe into treating this like the war it is and not a token side show you commit four planes into while refusing to supply guns that could end it all, but the threat is blocked for the moment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13242157

It also looks like the rebels in Misrata may be pushing towards the city airfield, which they originally held in the first week plus of the uprising against several assaults.

[Sea Skimmer]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13222425
The fuel shortage in Tripoli is growing worse. We now know that Qaddafi did manage to import several tankers of gasoline after the NATO action began, by using loopholes in the sanctions which only blocked imports by specific companies, but the last one arrived more then two weeks ago. It sucks for the people... but that is war. The sooner Qaddafi runs out of gas the better, after ten weeks of fighting even stocks held by the military are bound to be running down. I'd rather not see the population of Tripoli tear each other apart until the final battle; but then the more troops Qaddafi needs for garrison work the faster we can hope to reach that stage.

Also some video has creeped out confirming the presence of Qatari supplied Milan anti tank missiles in rebel hands. This video just show a bit of training but I saw a clip the other night on Al Jazeera which showed one being fired in combat in the western mountains. So the presence of a few tanks is no longer certain victory for Qaddafis depleted goon squads.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw4Sbx_5O8A

[Zinegata]

Does Qadafi still have any money left anyway, with all of his assets being frozen? I'm getting the sense the mercs he hired to shore up the troops are also beginning to run out of pay.

[Sea Skimmer]

He has a reported six billion dollars in gold alone in Libya and may have diamonds too (I know I would, it is Africa afterall); though converting gold to paper currency or weapons ect… is likely to take place at a very highly unfavorable exchange rate. Those asset freezes meanwhile only cover assets known to be in the hands of Qaddafi, his supporters and certain national government accounts such as the Libyan sovereign wealth fund. He could well have billions of dollars to draw on in secret accounts and investments held by shell companies around the world. People are looking out for that, but as long as Qaddafi can physically have agents drive across the boarder into foreign nations to bring back cash nothing is going to stop him from playing with at least some of that money. He may also generate a small income by smuggling oil into the Saharan states by truck. Even if the states south of him gave a damn about sanctions none of them is known for having very effective government controls against that sort of activity.

He’ll run out of cash at some point, but it will take months if not years and all the while whatever supporters he does have he can arm and train. While we have no idea how extensive his use of mercenaries really is, it’s been strongly suggested that they are mainly being used for occupation/garrison duties. Offensive operations are primarily in the hands of his elite regime protection brigades which had about 15,000 people in total before the war, supported by ill trained pro Qaddafi militia as young as 11 years old. This would only make sense, any mercenary can guard a street corner, it takes some dedication to go on the offensive.

Still many many variables are involved. Qaddafi needs fuel, ammo, men and money like anyone else does to pursue a mechanized war. Running out of any one of those assets will be the end of him, and signs point to running out of men, or at least trained men first. He may also be running low on ammo, or at least loosing the ability to distribute what he has left to his brigades spread across 500 miles of ragged frontline. We know he is very low on gasoline for the civilian population, but that doesn't really tell us much about what the military diesel fuel supply may be in truth, and military diesels can easily burn jet fuel stocks. We don't know if his air force fuel stocks were bombed or not, I'd hope they've been hit by now but fuel could have been dispersed or pumped into civilian oil facilities the US-NATO wouldn't attack. On the plus side while tanks ect... can burn diesel most of those civilian vehicles his forces now use cannot.

Men seems most critical. It took him a week to assemble an estimated 250 man force to counter attack at Wazin. Wazin is remote, but still only 150 miles from Tripoli and about 100 miles from the nearest major settlements under firm Qaddafi control. Considering how strategic this point is, we are going to learn a great deal about Qaddafis remaining capabilities in the coming days from what he does about the defeat of his counter attack. Will a bigger one come, or will it be clear failure and the rebel advance creeps forward yet more? Impossible to tell yet. Just because only 250 men were sent doesn't mean he couldn't send more, 250 men isn't a weak force really, but the week delay to bring them into action, when a ready reserve could have driven the distance in an afternoon, is very interesting.

[Tribun]

Big news, apparently airstrikes managed to kill Gaddafi's youngest son. The bad news is that although Gaddafi was in the same house, he somehow got Hitler's luck and survived it.

A NATO strike has killed Saif al-Arab Gaddafi, the 29-year-old son of the embattled Libyan leader, according to a Libyan government spokesman.

Moussa Ibrahim says three of Moamar Gaddafi's grandsons were also killed but the leader himself was unharmed.

"The house of Saif al-Arab Gaddafi ... who is the youngest of the leader's children, was attacked tonight with full power," he said.

"The leader with his wife was there in the house with other friends and relatives."

Saif al-Arab was a civilian and a student who had studied in Germany.

But Mr Ibrahim told a news conference in Tripoli that Moamar Gaddafi himself was not hurt.

"The leader himself is in good health; he wasn't harmed," he said.

"His wife is also in good health; she wasn't harmed [but] other people were injured.

"This was a direct operation to assassinate the leader of this country."

There was no immediate NATO reaction or independent confirmation of the incident.

Saif al-Arab is one of Gaddafi's less prominent sons, with a limited role in the Tripoli power structure.

Mr Ibrahim had earlier taken journalists to the remnants of a house in Tripoli.

Given the level of destruction, it is unclear that anyone could have survived, raising the possibility that if Moamar Gaddafi was there, he had left beforehand.

Three loud explosions were heard in Tripoli on Saturday evening as jets flew overhead.

Volleys of anti-aircraft fire rang out following the first two strikes, which were followed by a third.

The Libyan rebel capital Benghazi was rocked by sustained gunfire and explosions as fighters sent off volleys of celebratory fire after reports of the younger Gaddafi's death.

"They are so happy that Gaddafi lost his son in an air strike that they are shooting in celebration," said Colonel Ahmed Omar Bani, military spokesman of the Libyan opposition Transitional Nation Council, headquartered in the eastern city of Benghazi.

Earlier, in a speech on state television, Moamar Gaddafi said that NATO "must abandon all hope of his departure".

"I have no official functions to give up: I will not leave my country and will fight to the death."

But he added a conciliatory note.

"We are ready to talk with France and the United States, but with no preconditions," he said.

"We will not surrender, but I call on you to negotiate. If you want petrol, we will sign contracts with your companies. It is not worth going to war over.

"Between Libyans, we can solve our problems without being attacked, so pull back your fleets and your planes."

His call was dismissed by NATO and the Transitional National Council, which has shaped itself into a parallel government.

An international coalition began carrying out strikes on forces loyal to Moamar Gaddafi on March 19 under a United Nations Security Council mandate to protect Libyan civilians.

NATO took command of operations over Libya on March 31.

Massive protests in February - inspired by the revolts that toppled long-time autocrats in Egypt and Tunisia - escalated into war when Moamar Gaddafi's troops fired on demonstrators and protesters seized several eastern towns.

- AFP/Reuters

[Phantasee]

Wasn't he the smart son everybody thought would take over after his father passed?

[Pelranius]

I think that would be Saif al Islam, who is the oldest, IIRC.

Saif al Arab is the youngest son, I believe.

[Nathaniel]

I'm not buying it until there's some kind of independent confirmation. It wouldn't be the first time that the Gaddafi regime had lied about one of his children being killed in a US airstrike.

[K. A. Pital]

So they are trying to assassinate Gaddafi after all? Hmm. I thought our Russian TV would be wrong, but it seems true. Gaddafi will be killed.

[Sea Skimmer]

Qaddafi has some of his sons tied directly into his military command and control apparatus, so targeting command and control and targeting them overlap by default. So at the moment who knows why that house was bombed. It’s totally possible some of his sons were planning military operations and other family was simply present because of the very poor security situation in Tripoli for them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13251570
The BBC report here says that they saw evidence of people having just been in the house, which was a wealthy kind of villa, so I think it is very possible this attack did get his son, its possible even that Qaddafi really was present, but without a body I see no reason to believe any government claims.

Also they filmed a dud warhead in the ruins you can see at the end of the BBC video, which appears to be a 1000lb class cruise missile warhead to me. The damage also suggested a horizontal rather then vertical strike, so missiles not bombs. Use of cruise missiles suggest this was an attempt to kill someone in that Villa, as the missiles give less warning then a laser guided bombing raid which would be heard if nothing else.

It’s amusing how Russia objects so much to trying to kill Qaddafi. According to Qaddafi himself he has no role or title in the government; but he is a serving army officer. That makes him a totally legitimate target after all!

[K. A. Pital]

It’s amusing how Russia objects so much to trying to kill Qaddafi.

Russia does not object to anything; it's oligarchic elites are totally subservient to the US, which is aptly demonstrated by the fact that Russia could veto the UN Resolution but did not. Russian news merely indicated that the attack was aimed to kill, and if Gaddafi really was there, the attempt was clearly an assassination. No one mentioned him being an illegitimate target, actually. After all, any head of state is a totally legitimate target whom you can kill, because most of them hold an army rank or even hold the position of Commander in Chief.

It’s totally possible some of his sons were planning military operations

29-year old being Gaddafi's top military planner? His grandsons must have been even younger. Sorry, but that just sounds like complete bullshit to me. I could understand Seif Al-Islam being a part of the command structure, but grandsons? Or the younger son? Highly unlikely.

[Sea Skimmer]

Russia does not object to anything; it's oligarchic elites are totally subservient to the US, which is aptly demonstrated by the fact that Russia could veto the UN Resolution but did not. Russian news merely indicated that the attack was aimed to kill, and if Gaddafi really was there, the attempt was clearly an assassination. No one mentioned him being an illegitimate target, actually.

Bull. Putin has given speeches saying the attempt is illegitimate and beyond the UN mandate. I got to say, it is amazingly amusing to me to watch a man who had Grozny shelled to utter destruction for two months complain about NATO deciding to kill someone.

29-year old being Gaddafi's top military planner? His grandsons must have been even younger. Sorry, but that just sounds like complete bullshit to me. I could understand Seif Al-Islam being a part of the command structure, but grandsons? Or the younger son? Highly unlikely.

And as I already pointed out, both sides of his family could be in the same building because Qaddafi only has so many bodyguards for them he can trust among other reasons. You think Qaddafi give a damn if he mixes up his own family in military operations or bases? Of course not. His normal home in the Bab al-Aziziyah is a military garrison in the first place.

[K. A. Pital]

Bull. Putin has given speeches saying the attempt is illegitimate and beyond the UN mandate. I got to say, it is amazingly amusing to me to watch a man who had Grozny shelled to utter destruction for two months complain about NATO deciding to kill someone.

Blah blah blah. Whatever Putin said, he does nothing in the UN. This is just posturing aimed at the Russian electorate who are... slightly dissappointed that Russia didn't protect it's interests in Libya and the Med by blocking any and all UN actions. Duh.

You think Qaddafi give a damn if he mixes up his own family in military operations or bases? Of course not. His normal home in the Bab al-Aziziyah is a military garrison in the first place.

So we went from "his grandsons are legitimate military targets" to "they are human shields". That should have been the starting point.

[Sea Skimmer]

Blah blah blah. Whatever Putin said, he does nothing in the UN. This is just posturing aimed at the Russian electorate who are... slightly dissappointed that Russia didn't protect it's interests in Libya and the Med by blocking any and all UN actions. Duh.

Russia's only interest in Libya was selling more weapons; that wasn't going to happen anytime soon after the uprising anyway even if it failed. Even modern Russia has some standards, as shown by the endless stonewalling on delivering S-300 to Iran until the UN arms embargo provided a final excuse not to send it. Talk does matter in any case when NATO is trying to scrounge up more aircraft to make this a proper air blitz instead of a splattering of bombs.

So we went from "his grandsons are legitimate military targets" to "they are human shields". That should have been the starting point.

Your random assumptions are all over the place. I am trying to establish a logical baseline from which to interpret event. I don’t know if you someone assume omnipotence of NATO targeting or something? That every bit of damage must have been assumed and known?

The fact is you have no fucking clue why this specific building was bombed, or who was or was not actually killed, nor does anyone else here. Informed speculation would look at all possibilities; you seem to have very little interest in anything but an already assumed conclusion. Whatever the reason was it had to be something good, simply because NATO has so damn few bombing missions to work with each day.

[Sea Skimmer]

It occurs to me, is Qaddafi Islamic enough to care about quickly burying his family members if they have in fact been killed? If so we should have word about a funeral within the day.

[K. A. Pital]

I assume no omnipotence, obviously. However, it is quite curious how they keep trying to hit places where Gaddafi might be, or actually happens to be by occasion.

Russia's only interest in Libya was selling more weapons

And getting oil, naturally. And building a railway. All these projects, controlled mostly by the Russian state or closely related companies (Gazprom, Tatneft, Russian State Railways) are now axed. So it should not come as a surprise that Putin is a bit dissappointed, as are some of the oligarchs. Gazprom had oil field rights and concessions until 2026, which many thought were a profitable investment. Profit is obviously more important than Gaddafi himself, the Russian government never makes altruistic deals with anybody.

Even modern Russia has some standards, as shown by the endless stonewalling on delivering S-300 to Iran until the UN arms embargo provided a final excuse not to send it.

Some people inside Russia just see Iran as a possible threat not just to the West, but to Russia itself. This is why they stonewalled the deliveries, not because the Russian oligarchy has any standards whatsoever to speak of.

Talk does matter in any case when NATO is trying to scrounge up more aircraft to make this a proper air blitz instead of a splattering of bombs.

What? How does it matter? Putin should send aircraft to help NATO? *laughs* That would be political suicide for him and his entire bunch of boot-lickers.

[Block]

It occurs to me, is Qaddafi Islamic enough to care about quickly burying his family members if they have in fact been killed? If so we should have word about a funeral within the day.

If he feels that he'd be exposed to danger because of the funeral it can be delayed. A lot of the Islamic laws can be disregarded if it causes threat of personal harm.

[Talk738kno]

Rebels getting foreign aid.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13292852

[Hawkwings]

Yes, they do need things like food, medicine, basic supplies, etc. But they need weapons too. How are they going to win a revolution if they don't have the money to buy the guns to do it? Stealing from Gaddafi only goes so far.

I can only imagine that the NATO governments are directing and paying guys like that arms dealer from Lord of War to quietly ship them guns.

[LaCroix]

How are they going to win a revolution if they don't have the money to buy the guns to do it? Stealing from Gaddafi only goes so far.

Oil.

They already managed to send one shipment away, but I think Ghaddaffi stopped them from sending further shipments. They now probably receive everything on a base of IOUs written in oil.

[Hawkwings]

Better question I suppose: who is actually selling weapons to the Libyan rebels? I know I saw some articles last month about Qatar selling some anti-tank missiles. But everyone else in the world seems to be saying "No, we support your revolution but we won't help you kill enemy soldiers in any way. Here, have some non-lethal weapons!"

[montypython]

Better question I suppose: who is actually selling weapons to the Libyan rebels? I know I saw some articles last month about Qatar selling some anti-tank missiles. But everyone else in the world seems to be saying "No, we support your revolution but we won't help you kill enemy soldiers in any way. Here, have some non-lethal weapons!"

Presumably private arms sellers backed by interested parties I'd say.