Nationalists win outight majority in Scotland

[TC27]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13305522

While polling evidence suggests that most Scots are happy to vote for the SNP but but not for Independance there will almost certainly be a referendum within the next four years which could end the Act of Union between England and Scotland.

Could be massive political and constitutional shake up on the horizon.....

[Simon_Jester]

There's a lot I don't know about the context of this.

How big a degree of political separation between England/Wales on the one hand and Scotland on the other might we be looking at? A high degree of separation strikes me as a potential disaster for both- effectively reducing one good-sized country with solid economic potential and enough diplomatic leverage to get a strong say in its affairs into two small ones.

But that would be, say, outright secession; I doubt that's really in the cards. Could someone who actually understands the issues expand on this?

[TC27]

A vast majority of the GDP and population of the UK is English so whilst England would be slightly diminished by seperation it would not really be a game changer. Presumably the UK would still exist as Northern Ireland and Wales would remain parts of the Union for the forseeable future.

[Sharp-kun]

The Tories just have no foothold up here, the Lib Dems have dropped since the coalition and I'm not sure of labours standing at the moment. Other than independence, the SNP aren't a terrible choice for a lot of people.

I'd be sceptical of any referendum on independence actually passing when we get once (since its pretty much a guarantee now). My hope and that of most people I know is that it would fail.

[Thanas]

It has been widely theorized that the UK will actually break up into seperate nations over the next decades or so. I wonder if these theories are more than wishful thinking on the part of some people.

[Simon_Jester]

A vast majority of the GDP and population of the UK is English so whilst England would be slightly diminished by seperation it would not really be a game changer. Presumably the UK would still exist as Northern Ireland and Wales would remain parts of the Union for the forseeable future.

I would think that the economic and strategic dislocations would be pretty serious if Scotland seceded on terms that didn't let UK companies (and the UK military) make use of facilities in Scotland as they were accustomed to doing.

Again, I don't know, am not qualified to know, if that's even a remotely realistic outcome.

[Crown]

On Radio 1, most people are saying they expected the Lib Dems to be 'punished' (no shit, breaking core election promises tends to do that), and some votes to go to the SNP as protest votes, but the shear landslide has surprised pretty much everyone. Although polls show most Scots do not favour succession.

[Teebs]

A vast majority of the GDP and population of the UK is English so whilst England would be slightly diminished by seperation it would not really be a game changer. Presumably the UK would still exist as Northern Ireland and Wales would remain parts of the Union for the forseeable future.

I would think that the economic and strategic dislocations would be pretty serious if Scotland seceded on terms that didn't let UK companies (and the UK military) make use of facilities in Scotland as they were accustomed to doing.

Again, I don't know, am not qualified to know, if that's even a remotely realistic outcome.

It's SNP policy to remain within the EU, so UK companies would have no problems staying.

Militarily I suspect there would be very close cooperation too. I can't see it being an unamicable split.

[Zed]

Although polls show most Scots do not favour succession.

Is that because they don't like Charles? Or do you mean secession?

[Crown]

Although polls show most Scots do not favour succession.

Is that because they don't like Charles? Or do you mean secession?

Touche!

[General Mung Beans]

Would Scotland be a republic were it to be independent?

[madd0ct0r]

well, the Queen is ALSO Queen of scotland. Seperate thrones orgionally, but one canny git managed to inherit both.

So it'd remain a constitutional monarchy, unless they vote to leave the commonwealth too.

[Psychic_Sandwich]

IIRC, the SNP are also monarchists, so yes, it'd be a return to two seperate thrones.

[TC27]

The real interesting point is that Independance does happen than how do things get divided up? It would only be fair that the new Scottish nation take on a proportionate share of the UKs national debt especially as a large proportion of it came about from bailing out two major banks that at least in nameplate terms are Scottish based.

[Hillary]

I suspect it will lead to more devolution but not outright independence. I don't think there's really the appetite for it in Scotland as things stand, and giving more powers to Holyrood would be good enough for most.

There will only be a referendum if Alex Salmond thinks he can win it.

[Jon]

I'm not convinced that the Scottish people will vote for independence. Eitherway I expect that this referendum will not occur until near the end of SNP's parliament, so they can spend the next four years or so deploying an aggressive propaganda war in favour of secession.