Uprising in Libya

[lance]

Is it possible that we end of with east and west libya by the time this is over?

[Talk738kno]

I doubt it, the rebels have the manpower I think to win, its just that they need the time to train.

[That NOS Guy]

Is it possible that we end of with east and west libya by the time this is over?

It's politically unacceptable at this point.

[Sea Skimmer]

A split hardly works with large rebel held areas in the west containing about 1 million people or a sixth of the national population. This is a fight to the death, and Qaddafi will fall as long as the rest of the world doesn't act completely stupid and try to impose some kind of false ceasefire. More intervention is not bad. The world already completely altered the war and foiled all Qaddafis long preparation which should have murdered his opponents nearly as swiftly and effectively as the Iraqi Republican Guard did for Saddam in 1991.

Now that NATO extended the war into a campaign to defeat Qaddafi, any move to hold back support is false economy, and just nonsensical extension beyond reason. The best thing to do would be to give the rebels guns. Qaddafi already has ample weapons for his side; both sides being armed actually would demonstrate the true will of the nation like some folks want. But that isn't being done and it doesn't look like it will be on a meaningful scale; so a lot more air power to destroy Qaddafis weapons stocks and military bases is the next best thing and indirectly accomplishes the same task. Destroying any armored vehicle spotted would also help as opposed to current policy of largely only bombing stuff actually spotted firing or moving in action.


New Video from the Wazin border crossing; including an interview with a former US Army solider who has returned to Libya to join the rebels. He Estimates 120 vehicles in opposing Qaddafi forces including some armor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsyOdIG- ... dded#at=84

[Sea Skimmer]

Qaddafi's wife and only daughter have fled to Tunisia

Reports: Gadhafi's wife, daughter flee to Tunisia
Family members are said to be staying at tourist island near the border

The wife and daughter Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi have fled to Tunisia, a Tunisian security source told Reuters.

Safiya, Gadhafi's second wife, and his daughter Aisha crossed the Libyan-Tunisian border several days ago with a Libyan delegation, the source said.

Tunisian radio channel Mosaiqu reported that one of the leader's sons, Mohammad, had also crossed to Tunisia.

No official sources have confirmed the report.

According to Tunisian radio and Al Jazeera, the Gadhafi family members are staying in Djerba, a tourist island across the Libya-Tunisia border that former government officials have used as a refuge since defecting from the regime.

"It was expected that they would leave yesterday but they are still at Djerba," the source told Reuters.

Gadhafi, who has ruled Libya for more than 40 years, has been using his military and militias to try to put down an uprising that began in February to try to remove him from power.

An airstrike on a wealthy residential district in Tripoli last month killed Gadhafi's youngest son, Saif al-Arab, and three of his grandchildren, according to the Libyan government.

Gadhafi had eight biological children, seven of them sons, according to the BBC.

Reuters, RIO Novosti and the Tripoli Post contributed to this report.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43081947/ns ... _n_africa/

The original source was Reuters a couple hours ago. This isn't exactly confirmed, but its certainly not hard to believe. In the opening weeks Safia Qaddafi was active making propaganda speeches to support her husband in the Bab al-Aziziya compound, but not much as been seen of her in a while. If confirmed this would be a huge propaganda blow to Qaddafi and basically proof that he cannot ensure the safety of anyone.

18 days and counting since Qaddafi himself as last seen in a credible video, 7 days since the 'no speech' video, 4 days since the short audio tape. He can't keep isolating himself much longer if he's openly loosing supporters like this.

[Sea Skimmer]

Since freezing to death was too safe, Sea Sheppard has announced plans to try to stop tuna poachers in Libyan waters. Nothing can go wrong with this plan an area notorious for fishing with dynamite.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43081076/ns ... vironment/

[The Romulan Republic]

Are they eager to die? Idiots.

[Edward Yee]

The story of the Gaddafi wife/daughter reminds me of the travails of Pablo Escobar's wife and kids after Los Pepes appeared...

Re: fishing for dynamite -- someone needs to ask them why they would travel to waters that have already hosted an exchange between the HMS Liverpool and a regime artillery battery...

[Sea Skimmer]

The initial urban flak towers were actually designed to take four single 150mm guns of a model which was never approved for service, but was tested. Several initially mounted single 88mm until the later option of twined 128mm guns became available, some may have had 88mm the whole war. The supporting fire control towers as well as lower galleries on flak towers mounted 20mm and 37mm weapons. Earlier flak towers existed in Air Defense Zone West; the flak belt behind the West Wall which mostly mounted single 37mm guns.

Flak towers are complete and utter wastes of money for military purposes. Nothing at all was wrong with digging flak batteries of any caliber into the ground or behind a simpler raised parapet; raise the fire control gear made sense, but not at the price paid. Much smaller simpler towers or reinforcing existing buildings would have done the exact same thing. You needed heavy cranes to lift the guns on a flak tower into position, never mind constantly hauling the ammo up, this was not very practical at all. I’ve got pictures around too of the 50 metric ton armored hatch covers the Germans installed on top of the flak tower ammo elevators, excellent waste of resources. As ground defenses they were totally preposterous wastes compared to what such enormous bulk of steel and concrete could have done building smaller positions. Never mind the massive dead space around the tower in which the heavy guns are useless.

But the point of the flak towers was never military; it was propaganda, they were powerful signs of Hitler’s devotion to defending the German people from British terror raids. The flak towers were so massive in part because they also served as air raid shelters, and while designed for about 18,000 people each they at times held as many as 50,000 people in the largest Berlin towers. In this respect the towers were entirely successful, and Hitler was able to convince the German people to fight on to the bitter bitter end. Up until 1942 the Nazis also built a parallel series of similarly massive, but completely dedicated above ground air raid shelters which had sloping roofs to deflect bombs and with neo classical elements designed in to make them more appealing. This was also intended for the flak towers, but the designs were simplified to reduce the absurd costs. I can post some pictures of the model work done later

For now here are pics of the 15cm guns Hitler actually wanted. Two designs were considered, this is the 15 cm Gerät 55 with an on mount autoloader refilled manually in-between bursts. Notice absurd massiveness. With a weapon like this a totally fixed position makes a bit of sense.. for 128mm, you could still tow that if you wanted in two pieces and railroad cars provided ample mobility for defending industrial centers. Certainly more mobility then a gun on a tower.


http://en.valka.cz/files/p1000419_190.jpg
http://en.valka.cz/files/p1000423_575.jpg
http://en.valka.cz/files/p1000416_127.jpg

[Force Lord]

Wrong thread, Skimmer.

[Sea Skimmer]

crap yeah, well that's what I get for opening ten threads at once.

This is what I meant to post, video of a burning Libyan corvette at Tripoli after NATO sank eight warships and coast guard cutters at anchor today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPzLjvjU ... r_embedded

[Sea Skimmer]

Nice big semi clear image of the ship hit in the video above; it is in fact a Koni III class light frigate and the largest surface combatant in Qaddafi's navy; a sister ship is in rebel hands in Benghazi. Whatever hit it must have been on the small side.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.a/6a00 ... 4ba970d-pi

[Lord Woodlouse]

Do you think the rebels could make any use out of the ship they have?

[Edward Yee]

Depends on if they're able to get any ammo (and appropriate fuel) for it, or if they're having to jury-rig mount weapons for which they have existing ammo... no?

[Sea Skimmer]

Benghazi had a small naval base, as do several other rebel held ports, so spare parts and ammo are unlikely to be as much an issue as officers and crew. Just because a crew or military unit agrees not to fight for Qaddafi and kill civilians enmass for him doesn't mean they will all agree to fight against him as a unit. This issue plagued the rebels early on; and still does. This is why almost all the military units in the east could defect or disband but we see mostly armed civilians fighting Qaddafi near Brega.

Early in the war the rebels did capture a pro Qaddafi gasoline tanker heading to Tripoli by means unknown; could have just been Somilia pirate style speed boats. Sketchy evidences says they did use several small warships ships early in the conflict, but were not able to sustain them. Also I strongly suspect that once NATO got involved they told the rebels to keep the proper warships in port. It would not be good if some random amateur rebel sailors tried to fire off a Styx missile at an apartment block on land and blew up a passenger ferry doing so ect…

If the rebels had any ability/allowance to keep using military grade sea power, they surely would have sent anything they had to support Misurata and we’ve seen no signs of that occurring. As it is rebel resupply to Misurata is all using small fishing boats and some larger steel tugs. Rumors say the rebels may have armed one fishing boat with Grad rockets and used it in a few shore bombardments to support the city.

In an ideal world if the rebels could get the Koni III they have or one of the missile corvettes going, even the single 76mm gun these craft have would be useful firepower, but if it didn't happen yet I don't think it ever will. If I were the rebels I'd likely be looking at dismounting these guns and adapting them to land use, since even if the west will or may be supplying some light weapons, they surely will not hand over more artillery.

[Raj Ahten]

In an ideal world if the rebels could get the Koni III they have or one of the missile corvettes going, even the single 76mm gun these craft have would be useful firepower, but if it didn't happen yet I don't think it ever will. If I were the rebels I'd likely be looking at dismounting these guns and adapting them to land use, since even if the west will or may be supplying some light weapons, they surely will not hand over more artillery.

What would a realistic ground mount for a gun like that look like? I wouldn't think they'd be able to make it mobile easily. At best I'd imagine some kind of ungodly abomination with a turret and all the guts that are usually under the deck welded onto the back of semi trailer. It'd be the big brother of the BMP turret technical.

Or they could always turn it into a static mount for defense, which seems like a much easier job.

[That NOS Guy]

What would a realistic ground mount for a gun like that look like? I wouldn't think they'd be able to make it mobile easily. At best I'd imagine some kind of ungodly abomination with a turret and all the guts that are usually under the deck welded onto the back of semi trailer. It'd be the big brother of the BMP turret technical.

Or they could always turn it into a static mount for defense, which seems like a much easier job.

When most of the fighting is within naval gunfire support range, why would you even strip it from the ship?

[Sea Skimmer]

Fresh pictures of sunk and damaged Libyan Navy FACs; pretty sure this is Tripoli, and low and behold the military craft are all tied up at the civilian docks rather then across the harbor at the naval base.
http://www.libyafeb17.com/wp-content/up ... ships1.jpg
http://www.libyafeb17.com/wp-content/up ... ships2.jpg

What would a realistic ground mount for a gun like that look like? I wouldn't think they'd be able to make it mobile easily. At best I'd imagine some kind of ungodly abomination with a turret and all the guts that are usually under the deck welded onto the back of semi trailer. It'd be the big brother of the BMP turret technical.

Its only a 3 inch gun; you just need to weld the recoil system to an elevation system welded to the frame of a decently sized truck. The only problem I see is making the breach work for manual operation, that might be tricky but nothing impossible. This is assuming they have at least a basic load of ammo from the ship, six hundred rounds or more, to make it worth while. They may also have near scrap value gun carriages which could be utilized for a fresh cannon.

Or they could always turn it into a static mount for defense, which seems like a much easier job.

That would be about the same amount of welding to make a new mount. Just in that case welded onto a base plate instead of a truck. So if your going to spare the time to do it, it'd better be mobile. For the moment though I'd expect rebel welders probably do have better things to do; but they desperately need more long range firepower.

When most of the fighting is within naval gunfire support range, why would you even strip it from the ship?

Because its much easier for a low tech force to bring up a gun on a truck and engage Qaddafi's vehicles around Brega at long range, then it is to operate a naval vessel and coordinate shore fire from a moving platform.

[Sea Skimmer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnLx1lQi ... r_embedded
Al Jazeera interview video with prisoner mercenary troops held by rebels in the west of he country. But.. they are foreign nationals who were already inside Libya when the uprisings began. Two hours of training prior to entering battle; and they repeat claims of drugs being handed out.

In other news the large (200,000sqft) armored vehicle motor pool across the street from the Bab al-Aziziya appears to have been blown up; likely empty after this long anyway, and French and British are going to send attack helicopters into battle shortly. My guess is to shoot up everything Qaddafi has hiding in Brega town and the oil refinery which have been very successfully blocking the eastern rebels advance since not long after the NATO intervention began. Video of the Imperial Qatari NATO air rape of Tripoli at the link; looks like 2000lb bombs exploding.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13514788
23 May 2011 Last updated at 23:43 ET

Libya: Nato steps up air strikes on Tripoli

The BBC's Andrew North says there is a large plume of smoke rising from near Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi's compound
Continue reading the main story
Libya Crisis

* 'Forced to gang-rape'
* Misrata siege lifted
* No 'Plan B'
* Tripoli witness: Conscription

Nato planes have launched a series of air attacks on Libya's capital Tripoli, with correspondents saying they may be the largest so far of the campaign.

Some of the strikes appear to have targeted Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi's Bab al-Aziziya compound.

They came after France announced it and the UK would also deploy attack helicopters to escalate strike power.

Nato is enforcing a UN resolution to protect civilians, following the uprising against Col Gaddafi's rule.
Plumes of smoke

Between 12 and 20 explosions were reported in the early hours of Tuesday.

The BBC's Andrew North, in Tripoli, said the first blasts were in the vicinity of Bab al-Aziziya and were followed by more in other parts of the city.

He says the hotel journalists have been staying in was shaken to its foundation by some of the blasts.

After each a Nato aircraft could be heard in the sky.

Plumes of smoke were rising from the area of Bab al-Aziziya and anti-aircraft guns were firing.

Libyan government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said three people were killed and 150 wounded in the strikes.
File photo of HMS Ocean - Royal Navy handout - 19 April 2010 UK Apache attack helicopters would deploy from HMS Ocean, but this is not yet confirmed

Mr Ibrahim said barracks of a volunteer unit of the Libyan army had been targeted but most of the casualties were civilians living nearby. The statements could not be independently verified.

Our correspondent says he has not been taken to the barracks but was escorted to a hospital and shown people said to have been injured in the strikes.

He says people have come out on to the streets to show support for Col Gaddafi.

The attacks came after French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet confirmed media reports that France was deploying attack helicopters to Nato's Libya mission.

He also said Britain would send helicopters. He said both countries would deploy the new forces as soon as possible.

The UK has yet to confirm the deployment.
Rebel diplomacy

Earlier, France's Le Figaro newspaper said that 12 helicopters were despatched to Libya on the French carrier Tonnerre on 17 May. The helicopters involved were allegedly Tigre and Gazelle.

The deployment would increase pressure on Col Muammar Gaddafi's forces, as helicopters can hit targets on the ground more accurately.

BBC defence correspondent Caroline Wyatt says using attack helicopters marks a significant escalation of the campaign.

She says the UK's Apache attack helicopters would deploy from HMS Ocean, the Royal Navy's largest warship. Our correspondent says the BBC understands their use was authorised by Prime Minister David Cameron at a meeting of the National Security Council.

Nato jets have been targeting Col Gaddafi's military infrastructure, but have been unable to stop the fighting.

Rebels control much of Libya's east, while Col Gaddafi's forces control most of the west of the country.

The rebellion against his rule began in February, spurred on by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt that saw the presidents of those countries overthrown.

Meanwhile, the most senior US diplomat to visit the rebels in Libya, US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman, has been holding talks with the rebels in their Benghazi stronghold.

The US has insisted that Col Gaddafi step down, but has not granted full recognition to the rebel administration - the Transitional National Council.

[weemadando]

Has any footage or further details emerged yet of the very early on A-10 v Libyan Patrol boat/missile boat engagement?

[Sea Skimmer]

I haven't seen anything gun camera wise that I know was US; I'm not sure we released anything at all actually, that would fitting with Obama's desire to downplay involvement. The RAF are the only ones regularly putting out videos. The A-10 strafed a small boat, a P-3 put a Maverick in a 32 meter patrol boat which beached and a third small boat got away or was allowed to flee. That's all I've ever seen on it; and the phrase clubbing baby seals comes to mind for the whole story. It was at night too with a US destroyer nearby to make it even more one sided.

[Lord Woodlouse]

So HMS Ocean is out there now, any idea what the total coalition naval deployment is in the area?

[Prannon]

This from Fox.

Five Top Generals Defect From Qaddafi's Army
Published May 30, 2011 | Associated Press

Eight top Libyan army officers, including five generals, who have defected from Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime appealed to their fellow officers Monday to join the revolt to hasten the end of Qaddafi's 40-year rule.

Italian Foreign Ministry officials presented the generals, two colonels and a major to reporters in Rome three days after they fled Libya.

One of the officers, Gen. Melud Massoud Halasa, estimated that Qaddafi's military forces are now "only 20 percent as effective" as what they were before the revolt broke out in mid-February, and that "not more than 10" generals remain loyal to Qaddafi.

Former Libyan Foreign Minister Abdel Rahman Shalgam, who now backs the anti-Qaddafi rebels, told the news conference that the eight officers are "part of 120 officials who left and abandoned Qaddafi and are now out of Libya."

Italy, Libya's former colonial ruler, long had close economic and diplomatic ties with Tripoli, but Rome was among the first Western nations to break with the regime and establish formal relations with the Libyan National Transitional Council, that is representing anti-Qaddafi forces.

Gen. On Ali On read an appeal to fellow army officers and top police and security officials "in the name of the martyrs who have fallen in the defense of freedom to have the courage" to abandon the regime.

The general, wearing street clothes like his fellow defectors, denounced both "genocide" and "violence against women in various Libyan cities."

Another general, identified as Yahmet Salah, told reporters that Qaddafi had only two brigades left that were allegedly carrying out the arrests and killings.

Mahmoud Shammam, of the National Transitional Council, said none of the funds from abroad, including those promised earlier this month at an international conference hosted by the Italian Foreign Ministry in Rome, had yet reached the anti-Qaddafi forces. He also said that a council representative would go to the OPEC meeting in Vienna next month.

[The Romulan Republic]

Excellent. Nice to see the bastard's regime continues to weaken. Now maybe we can end this soon. Have their been any more advances by either side lately, or is everything still at a stand still?

[Prannon]

I haven't actually seen all that much news reported lately. I know that the rebels from Misratah have made relatively significant gains against the Qaddafi forces arrayed against them, but on the Eastern Front I don't know if there has been any progress. From what I can tell, it looks like continued erosion of morale and resources.