Uprising in Libya

[Sea Skimmer]

Nothing has really changed on any of the frontlines in the past ten days. Its pretty clear the rebels are continuing to be cautious and await reinforcements of trained men, 500 were declared ‘graduates’ in Benghazi in the past 24 hours, and these European attack helicopters to go into action to finish off the threat of Qaddafis tanks in the front lines. They remain chronically short of weapons and ammunition of all types, the lines around Misrata are being sustained largely by battlefield captures.

In Tripoli the regime control of the streets may be backsliding; people were able to protest enmass today before being dispersed by live gunfire by reportedly ‘10’ vehicles carrying pro Qaddafi fools. But the fact remains that Qaddafi has thousands of men with tanks and artillery holding the city so even a large popular uprising would be crushed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2p8JlQp ... r_embedded

Its clear Qaddafi is weakening, but his still has plenty of troops, possibly over 7,000 around Brega alone, who are putting up a show of a fight and that’s all it really takes to hold off people with zero armor and very little artillery. Some time in the first half of June we can expect a rebel push against Ziltan in the west and Brega in the east but I would not be at all confident that it will lead to major shifts. Some areas of the western mountains are literally going to starve to death by the end of June if nothing changes.


Apparently Qaddafi has deprived the troops at Brega of vehicles so they can’t run away or turn on him, smart move, but that will also mean a strong enough rebel push could isolate them. That will be the best hope for a major shift. If the rebels could capture such a force and its weapons it would be a tremendous boost. The NATO helicopter deployment BTW is confirmed as four Tigers and four Apaches, supported by minor lesser types as is always the case. That isn't much but it could make a huge difference around Brega which is shooting gallery type terrain. Qaddafi has tanks and rocket launchers hiding in the town and the oil refinery that NATO wont bomb, as long as those exist with some forward observers the rebels can't do shit to the place.

[Block]

News updates seem to be weekly at this point rather than daily like in the early stages. Considering Yemen and Syria's conflicts expanding that's not surprising.

[Sea Skimmer]

Pretty much, the war in Libya has been in a highly attritional phase ever since the assault on Misrata was broken. This phase could last another few weeks, it could last eight months. Every day dozens of people are killed or wounded on each side but both sides have many thousands of people fighting or in the pipeline. Yemen and Syria aren't much different really, both sides are just trying to outlast each other to the bitter end.

[Slacker]

This may veer off-topic, but if Syria blows wide-open right as Libya winds up, could we see NATO's attention shift there? I know three months ago we were saying it wouldn't happen, we couldn't afford to do it, but I don't think any of us thought the people there could sustain a rebellion again the government there on their own for so long.

[Raj Ahten]

If starvation becomes a problem for the mountain areas NATO could always drop food from the air. Given that bombs are being dropped, food drops shouldn't be controversial at all. They'd even give the mission more humanitarian street cred. That’s assuming of course that everyone doesn't drag their feet and would prove unwilling to pony up the C-130's needed.......

On another note coverage of the conflict has really wound down lately. We still know very little about whole regions of the conflict (Such as those mountain regions) and Libya barely merits any news time in the US anymore. I guess a military stalemate will do that.

[PeZook]

This assumes the requisite amounts of food can be airdropped, which is not a given.

[Simon_Jester]

At the least, it would help stave off the worst effects- keep people from starving as quickly, hopefully until the war has proceeded to the point where ground-based food shipments can proceed again.

[Rabid]

Cynicism :

What will guarantee to the civilians in the mountains that those rations are in fact legit, and not poisoned ones left there by pro-Qaddafi troops ?

Point : It is not because you drop food from the sky that people will eat it. We aren't in the Ancient Testament, here...

[Simon_Jester]

Re: Rabid:

You can transmit, by radio, where and when you will be dropping food. The Qaddafists can't fake an airdrop because they have no planes on account of your no-fly zone being in effect. They can sneak in on the ground and try to steal or contaminate the food, but this at least draws them out for a battle rather than allowing them to besiege the entire area and starve it out.

You can conspicuously mark the ration packages- for example, you can paint big bright tricolors on the wrapper. If the Qaddafists want to poison rebels using fake rations, they need to get lots of ration packages with big bright tricolors painted on the wrapper in a hurry. This makes the job more difficult.

You can put anti-tampering seals on the ration packages- a routine precaution with foodstuffs on the grocery store. This prevents the Qaddafists from taking your own ration packages, opening them, and poisoning them.

Now, this isn't perfect. But starving men will take their chances with food that might be poisoned if the enemy has been hypercompetent, rather than continue to starve. Thus, so long as you can supply food that it is difficult for the Qaddafists to tamper with or produce fakes of, and supply it to areas the Qaddafist troops can't easily take control of, you will have accomplished something useful.

[LaCroix]

And for god's sake, tell the REMF that it's not a good idea to drop bacon or ham, no matter how durable it might be in the can...

[Rabid]

Other than that, have they done something on the issue of unexploded munitions from cluster bombs sharing an uncanny similarity in look, to the uneducated eyes, with emergency food rations - it's to say : yellow bags with black writings on it (which doesn't help when you are talking about illiterate people who don't speak english) ?

Or at least that's what I heard from persons and/or group of persons who campaign for the ban of Cluster Bombs, such as Handicap International...

[LaCroix]

I don't think they use cluster bombs in this campain, but you are right, this could cause problems if they do. On the other hand, the site that got hit with cluster bombs WILL look quite a bit different than a food drop site. The huge parachutes, the fact that there are no craters, and the stuff sitting on palettes should be a dead givaway.

[Sea Skimmer]

If starvation becomes a problem for the mountain areas NATO could always drop food from the air. Given that bombs are being dropped, food drops shouldn't be controversial at all. They'd even give the mission more humanitarian street cred. That’s assuming of course that everyone doesn't drag their feet and would prove unwilling to pony up the C-130's needed.......

Two problems with that. First, some of the besieged towns, especially Yafran, simply have no usable drop zones within the tiny radius the rebels control. That means the only realistic way to deliver stuff is literally just throwing MREs out of a plane or in small bundels, they will survive the fall, and that leads into the second problem. Mainly that of pro Qaddafi forces having not just a few anti aircraft missiles but substantial numbers of the most modern models on the world market. Small air drop packages need to release pretty low to have any usable accuracy. Pro Qaddafi forces also still demonstrate daily activity from larger mobile surface to air missile systems, requiring a constant NATO SEAD effort. Personally I suspect that someone is just driving out SAM launchers each day to get exploded without being too serious about locking on and firing; but odds would favor more then a few loyal SAM crews existing who are and will do that. NATO won't comment much except to claim more SAM launchers destroyed almost ever day. No doubt some are decoys.

That all means every low flying food scattering C-130 drop could only take place with heavy escort and still at high risk. In general any time you must overfly the exact same point of air space on a daily basis it is a bad thing. It can be done, but no one is going to want to do so. It makes more sense to fly more air strikes sooner then later in hopes that the rebels in the mountains can grow strong enough to link up with the besieged areas. As always, more then a few dozen aircraft dropping bombs from all of NATO would make a tremendous difference in accomplish this goal.

I don't think they use cluster bombs in this campain, but you are right, this could cause problems if they do. On the other hand, the site that got hit with cluster bombs WILL look quite a bit different than a food drop site. The huge parachutes, the fact that there are no craters, and the stuff sitting on palettes should be a dead givaway.

The US changed the colors on the humanitarian MREs so they aren't the same high visibility orange as everyone was painting cluster bombs. NATO hasn’t used cluster bombs, of those bombing only the US would consider it an option, and it looks like use by Qaddafi’s forces was probably accidental or at least very limited in scope. Someone gave an order to stop anyway.

[Sea Skimmer]

An extended version of the May 30th Tripoli protest has been posted, its not huge but its certainly not a small group of people willing to come out and invite death on sight in the heart of Tripoli.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX7jb1NA ... r_embedded

[Sea Skimmer]

Someone bombed a car in the parking lot of a hotel in Benghazi used by foreign journalists. Video at the link; it was a moderate blast but a lot more significant then the earlier 'car bomb' several weeks ago which proved to just be a case of poor ammunition handling causing a single mortar bomb to explode in a trunk.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13622805
A huge explosion has blown up a car near a major hotel in the eastern Libyan rebel stronghold of Benghazi.

The blast happened outside the Tibesti, a hotel often used by rebel leaders and foreign visitors.

A rebel official said the explosion had been caused by a device thrown under a car. Witnesses said there were no deaths or injuries.

Benghazi is where the revolt against embattled Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi began in February.

A rebel spokesman, Jalal al-Gallal, called Wednesday's bombing a "cowardly act".

Several cars parked nearby were set on fire and a huge plume of smoke rose above the city.

A large crowd chanting anti-Gaddafi slogans appeared as rebel authorities tried to cordon off the area.

Libyan rebel TV initially reported a rebel officer had been killed, but a rebel official later said the man had died in a separate incident a day earlier.

Pictures of the burning cars from a rebel propaganda site
http://www.libyafeb17.com/wp-content/up ... nghazi.jpg
http://www.libyafeb17.com/wp-content/up ... i-wide.jpg

[The Romulan Republic]

Why would the rebels attack a hotel full of foreign journalists? Is this a sign that Al Qadia or similar groups are gaining influence in Libya, or is it Ghaddafi trying to make people think that's the case again? Or were the journalists not even the target, their presence being simply coincidence?

[Sea Skimmer]

Why would you even start to assume the rebels would bomb a hotel in the capital of the rebellion?

It sure wasn’t Al Qaeda; they exist in Libya primarily to oppose Qaddafi. This is a major factor in why Qaddafi turned back to the west as a supporter.

Everyone thinks it was someone sent by Qaddafi, and if it wasn’t that the next most likely answer is yet another case of very poor ammunition handling. Qaddafi has been promising that Libya will become a sea of chaos without him for three months, this is most likely him trying to make it happen and make the civil war far more brutal so that his own supporters will live in fear and fight to the death for him.

[Sea Skimmer]

Just to put things in context a little better, ever since the revolution began Benghazi has seen scattered drive by shootings, assassinations and disappearances. Very little of this makes it to the media to be noticed because any one even it just not that big a deal in a large scale civil war.

Some of it is just criminal elements at work, but a large number of the incidences have been targetd at notable but distinctly local leaders, revolutionary artists who painted anti Qaddafi signs and similar people. Some of that has been random acts by random pro Qaddafi supporters in Benghazi but its widely believed, and hard not to believe that some of it has been done by agents sent from Tripoli to cause trouble. Its worked too as the rebels must keep a large portion of the armed strength they have defending Benghazi and other cities from these kind of threats. A car bomb if confirmed would really escalate the situation. This bomb wasn’t that big, the next one could easily be using a thousand pound aircraft bomb taken from one of the many now poorly guarded military facilities spread across Libya.

[The Romulan Republic]

Why would you even start to assume the rebels would bomb a hotel in the capital of the rebellion?

You're right, its not plausible. I'm not saying the rebels did this.

It sure wasn’t Al Qaeda; they exist in Libya primarily to oppose Qaddafi. This is a major factor in why Qaddafi turned back to the west as a supporter.

Wasn't aware of that. I knew their were claims of Al Qaeda involvement from various sources, but not much about their actions in Libya beyond that.

Everyone thinks it was someone sent by Qaddafi, and if it wasn’t that the next most likely answer is yet another case of very poor ammunition handling. Qaddafi has been promising that Libya will become a sea of chaos without him for three months, this is most likely him trying to make it happen and make the civil war far more brutal so that his own supporters will live in fear and fight to the death for him.

Probably. Part of what worries me is that people in the west will see this and think "oh shit, this is turning into another Iraq." Which is stupid, but you know a lot of people in the media and public will take it that way. No doubt that's exactly what Ghaddafi would want, of course.

[Edward Yee]

Iman el-Obeidi forcibly repatriated to eastern Libya (where Gaddafi agents may still lurk, she fears) on a Qatari military aircraft.

[Sea Skimmer]

The siege of Yafarn has been broken after National Liberation Army troops (rebels have given themselves a name at last) advanced down from the mountain escarpment and took three towns over a front of 30 miles, opening a road into the town from the north. They captured at least one T-72 tanks in the process along with other weapons and vehicles. This appears to have happened after a shipment of Qatari mortars and anti tank weapons appeared.

This report was made after the fall of the first two towns but before the third fell and opened up the path to Yafarn today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7sOKACW ... r_embedded

All these towns are small places, but the strategic implications are considerable. They cut the main east-west road at the foot of the mountains along which numerous small detachments of Qaddafi troops are deployed. One bypass road exists so those troops are not cut off, but they’ve now lost lateral mobility. The rebels meanwhile now hold a road junction with a route that leads directly to Tripoli about 100km north east. The road also splits to lead to Zawiyah, one of the crushed birthplaces of the rebellion about 70km north.

The rebel positions at the base of the mountains are exposed now, but let us consider that the last time pro Qaddafi troops were able to retake any territory lost to a rebel advance was in late April around Wazin and even that gain was quickly reversed. This advance could but another small rebel push; it could also be a sign that Qaddafi’s entire position in the western mountains is going to collapse shortly. Allah willing the rebellion will now move west and roll up the line of Qaddafi troops along the base of the escarpment. If they can accomplish that then a march on Zawiyah would become feasible. Zawiyah has the only oil refinery in pro Qaddafi hands and controls the coast road to Tunisia, if that ever falls it's game over.

[Sea Skimmer]

Here's a short but up to date article on the rebel push
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/afric ... 80622.html

Rebel fighters make gains in western Libya
Opposition fighters make major advance towards capital, after claiming series of victories against Gaddafi forces.
Last Modified: 03 Jun 2011 20:55

Libyan opposition fighters have made a major advance towards the capital, Tripoli after claiming victory in western Libyan towns against forces loyal to leader Muammar Gaddafi.

An opposition military leader said on Friday that local fighters won control of four towns in the western Nafusa mountain range, where government forces have besieged and randomly shelled rebel-held areas for months.

Fighters who had fled then used their knowledge of the area to chip away at the government forces, Colonel Jumaa Ibrahim of the region's rebel military council told the Associated Press news agency via Skype.

"They know all the hills and valleys, so they were able to trick the brigades and destroy some of their vehicles," he said.

Opposition fighters also pushed government troops from Shakshuk and Qasr al-Haj, two towns near a key road that runs along the mountain range's northern edge, Ibrahim said.

Ibrahim said opposition forces took the towns on Thursday then moved north to clash with Gaddafi forces in the village of Bir Ayyad on Friday. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

After a brutal siege by pro-Gaddafi forces, Misurata, Libya's third largest city, is now in opposition hands. Opposition fighters there have now pushed halfway to the town of Zlitan after taking control of Zintan.

At one stage, their advance came to within 60km of Sirte but the government troops held their line and repelled the attack.

Heavy NATO bombing

Earlier on Friday, at least 10 NATO air strikes hit the capital and elsewhere in Libya. It was not immediately clear if there were any casualties.

Four early morning blasts shook central Tripoli, targeting a barracks near the sprawling compound where Gaddafi sometimes lives, said a government official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with government policy.
Click here for more of Al Jazeera's special coverage

Six earlier strikes targeted a police station and a military base outside the capital, the official said.

A NATO spokeswoman, speaking by phone from Naples, said the alliance hit a storage facility for military vehicles in Gaddafi's compound.

In a statement, NATO said it also targeted surface-to-air missile launchers and armoured personnel carriers near Tripoli, as well as other targets elsewhere.

The strikes appeared to be the heaviest in Tripoli since South African president Jacob Zuma visited Gaddafi in the capital earlier this week in an apparently unsuccessful effort to find a peaceful resolution to the country's crisis.

China meets rebels

Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign ministry said that China's ambassador to Qatar recently met with the head of Libya's opposition council, the first known meeting between the two sides.

A Chinese foreign ministry statement said Beijing's ambassador to Qatar, Zhang Zhiliang, had met and "exchanged views on developments in Libya" with Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the chairman of the rebel council that is trying to offer itself as a credible temporary alterative to Gaddafi.

The ministry gave no details of the talks but the meeting itself was an indication that Beijing wants to keep open lines of communication with the rebel forces.

China abstained in the UN Security Council vote authorising NATO military action in Libya.

The conflict in Libya is nearly four months along, but the situation on the ground appears mostly stalemated.

NATO air strikes have kept the outgunned rebels from being overrun, but the rebels have been unable to mount an effective offensive against Gaddafi's better equipped armed forces.

Gaddafi's government has been slowly crumbling from within. A significant number of army officers and several Cabinet ministers have defected, and most have expressed support for the opposition.

Rebels have turned down initiatives calling for ceasefires, insisting that Gaddafi and his sons must relinquish power and leave the country.

[Sea Skimmer]

The first NATO attack helicopter sorties have been completed

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13651736

3 June 2011 Last updated at 22:57 ET

Libya: UK Apache helicopters used in Nato attacks
Apache attack helicopter The Apache helicopter is prized by troops because of its hardiness and versatility
Continue reading the main story
Related Stories

* How Apaches could aid Libya mission
* Misrata rebels' hopes for Apaches
* Tour of Apache attack helicopter

British Apache attack helicopters have been used over Libya for the first time, Nato has confirmed.

They attacked and destroyed two military installations, a radar site and an armed checkpoint near Brega, the Captain of HMS Ocean told the BBC.

French Gazelle helicopters also took part in simultaneous attacks on different targets in Libya for the first time.

On Wednesday, Nato extended its mission in Libya by 90 days.

The BBC's defence correspondent Jonathan Beale said: "The Captain of the HMS Ocean reported that those targets had been successfully destroyed and both Apaches returned to their base on HMS Ocean."

"This successful engagement demonstrates the unique capabilities brought to bear by attack helicopters," said Lt Gen Charles Bouchard, Commander of Operation Unified Protector.

"We will continue to use these assets whenever and wherever needed, using the same precision as we do in all of our missions."
Missile risk

The decision to send four British Apache helicopters to Libya was made by Prime Minister David Cameron on 27 May.

Their deployment via HMS Ocean means there should be less chance of civilian casualties in operations that previously relied on the use of Tornado and Typhoon aircraft.

But the Apaches operate at lower altitudes and could be targeted by Libyan forces loyal to Col Gaddafi, which still have access to thousands of surface-to-air missiles.

Nato intervened in Libya after the UN passed a resolution for the protection of civilians, amid a two-month revolt inspired by other uprisings in the Arab world.

It has intensified raids in recent weeks with attacks on command-and-control structures in the capital Tripoli.

The intervention was initially led by France, Britain and the US until 31 March - when Nato took over. It was given an initial 90 days, which would have run out on 27 June.

On Wednesday, UN investigators accused government forces in Libya of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Rights experts said they had found evidence of crimes including murder and torture, in a pattern suggesting Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was behind them.

The UN mission also said opposition forces were guilty of abuses that would constitute war crimes, although they were not so numerous.

[Sea Skimmer]

Looks like some Qaddafi’s troops in the west may simply be collapsing like a wet paper bag in the field and abandoning the fight. In this video you can infer that the rebels have captured a whole column of armed Libyan Army trucks; and with zero evidence of a battle. Just abandon armed vehicles.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc3772n57X4

Some of the larger supply looking trucks can be seen moving with other rebel vehicles in the second part.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l50uvezcxPg

I used google translate on the the titles, the videos are ‘The rebels on the road for the Liberation of Heathens’ part 1 and 2.

[Lord Woodlouse]

Know if there's any up to date maps showing areas of control?