Simon_Jester wrote:I try to avoid defining "intelligent" as "thinks enough like me to agree with my politics." There are people I sincerely respect who, for varying reasons, thought Bush would make a pretty good president in 2004.
Some of them believed, on a fundamental axiomatic level, that a fertilized embryo is human, and are single-issue abortion voters (more or less). I can argue with the rights and wrongs of that position, as can you and probably anyone on this forum, but I can't argue with the conclusion giving the starting assumption. If you really believe that, then pretty much anything short of "vote National Socialist!" looks like an appealing alternative to "vote pro-abortion!"
Some of them overestimated the degree to which there was a smart strategy behind the Iraq War, one with a real chance of long-term success that would bring peace and democracy to the region. On that basis, I'd argue that the worst they were guilty of was underestimating the determination of Arabs not to be ruled by foreigners. Better men than I have made the same mistake.
Some of them thought Kerry didn't have much (if any) more political forcefulness to him than Bush; these people had drunk a certain amount of electoral Kool-Aid. But not that much: a lot of Americans were looking for decisiveness and force of will, and Kerry never managed to make the case that he had it.
But this was 2004; there was more room for people who didn't know what to expect from having a far-right "decider" in office, one hellbent on remaking America in his image. And in all fairness Bush, for all his faults, wasn't that man- there were limits on what he was willing to push for, and if he were as far to the right as the Overton window ran in the US we would have a lot fewer problems at the moment. The Tea Party might produce such a candidate some day, a real "great decider" of the anarcho-corporatist right wing... but Bush wasn't him.
And in the final analysis, in 2004 the Democrats committed the grave tactical blunder of running a president who didn't look like a quasi-typical American. If you're going to do that, your candidate will stand out, and people will look at him and wonder "Who is this guy?" instead of filling in the blanks on their mental map of his character. And having people stop and wonder "Who is this guy? I don't understand him" about your candidate is only all right if they can lead.
Obama had both of those- he really does look like America to a lot of Americans (those not choked and blinded by racism), and he does have the ability to rally the troops. Say what you will about his policies disappointing you, but his ability to organize a movement of people who really truly wanted him in charge, as opposed to just wanting to deny the office to the other guy, cannot be denied.
But Kerry's credentials as a commoner were never very good, he wasn't good at creating the illusion of commoner-credentials, and he wasn't all that good at rallying people to his banner. He had a problem with being wooden even before the Republican campaign machine got through with him.
And so Kerry only almost won- a failure that should have surprised no one and left no one feeling especially betrayed by "the American people." There is some minimum standard of political savvy to be expected of people before we can say they 'deserve' to win an election; the exact level of the standard varies but it's always there. Kerry, in the context of 2004, didn't really pass the standard in my opinion.
To elaborate a bit, the problem with Kerry was that he didn't seem to have any real conviction. He had garnered the reputation as a flip-flopper, or a political opportunist - not things to be admired in someone who you want to make the
right decision, not neccessarily the most popular one. During the debates I seem to recall an instance where when asked about using the military in the defense of the American people, he responded by, and I'm paraphrasing, that "it had to be done in a way that passed an international test" - a line that Bush immediately jumped on saying "You go to war when American people are threatened". It made it appear as though Kerry would be unable or unwilling to act if the end result weren't politically advantageous. It basically came back to an element of trust. The majority of American people did not trust Kerry as President. I happen to think that if Gore had run again he very well could have beaten Bush.
Strangely enough, roles were reversed in the 2008 election where it was Obama boldly proclaiming that he'd go into Pakistan after Bin Laden given actionable intelligence (a statement he obviously followed up on), where McCain appeared to be somewhat weak willed, with his own "international test" response saying that it had to be approved with Pakistan etc.