LOGH - Post Vermillion what-if *spoilers*

[MaiazuruX]

Simply enough, Yang gets the message to surrender too late, or Bucock offs Truhnit and Yang never receives the order. Whatever the case, Yang successfully completes his orders and kills Lohengramm on the battlefield.

However, what would happen then, in your opinion?

[Darksider]

well, the FPA capital is fucked for one thing, didn't the imperial battlefleet in orbit specifically threaten to BDZ the planet if they didn't call of yang? I doubt the lady in charge will take news of his death particularly well. The alliance may gain an overall stay of execution as the imperial forces withdraw for a nasty succession war, but their capital is forfeit.

A shame Yang destroyed the only major defense the planet had outside of the fleet. With the Necklace of Artemis, Heinessen might have been able to hold out long enough for yang to do his job and gank the egotistical little blond fuck.

[OmegaChief]

But if he'd have left the Necklace intact then he wouldn't have been able to as bloodlessly defeat the coup as he did, to be frank the Alliance was doomed as soon as they invaded Imperial Space after taking Isoldern

[Vympel]

A shame Yang destroyed the only major defense the planet had outside of the fleet. With the Necklace of Artemis, Heinessen might have been able to hold out long enough for yang to do his job and gank the egotistical little blond fuck.

Given how casually Kircheis disposed of the Artemis Necklace around Castrop with directional zephyr particles, I highly doubt this would have slowed down Mittermeyer and Reuenthal.

Btw MaiazuruX, I changed the title of the thread, I think it still works.

However, what would happen then, in your opinion?

Mittermeyer and Reuenthal would likely carry through their threat to devastate the surface of Heinessen. They would then likely return to the Empire to figure out who's going to succeed Reinhard. Oberstein would likely offer his assitance to Reuenthal, forming the view that he is Reinhard's appropriate (most capable) successor. I find it unlikely that any of Reinhard's other subordinates would think of themselves as Kaiser material. Mittermeyer is the only one who can match Reuenthal on the battlefield, but he's not ambitious in that way, and they're friends, so they'd likely work together in Kircheis / Reinhard Mk 2.

[Darth Fanboy]

Mittermeyer and Reuenthal won't massacre civilians even in the case of the premature death of REinhard, especially if hell honorably in battle with Admiral Yang.

Without REinhard, the Empire's ambition is severly curtailed and we likely see a treaty forced. The Alliance would be much smaller and depleted but would survive as an independent government instead of subordinate to the Empire. Yang then focuses his attention on the Terraists, possibly working together with the Empire to root them out.

Oh, and Schenkopp doesn't die and sires more hot jailbait daughters.

[Uraniun235]

I wouldn't be surprised if Yang didn't survive Reinhard's death. His fleet was mostly exhausted by the time he was in position to fire on Reinhard, and if I remember right there were still a lot of combatants left.

The Twin Stars of the Empire might have blanched at the thought of conducting a general planetary bombardment, but I could see them specifically destroying government buildings and any remaining military bases on and around Heinessen, followed by a general campaign throughout FPA space to utterly remove their warfighting capability.

In the absence of Reinhard's trust, I think Oberstein becomes a destabilizing element - whomever he acts against, even with proper cause, is going to find some ally amongst their comrades and it would eventually be civil war. For this reason it's entirely possible that Oberstein would attempt to stand up Reuenthal as the successor, then immediately withdraw from public service.

A shame Yang destroyed the only major defense the planet had outside of the fleet. With the Necklace of Artemis, Heinessen might have been able to hold out long enough for yang to do his job and gank the egotistical little blond fuck.

Given how casually Kircheis disposed of the Artemis Necklace around Castrop with directional zephyr particles, I highly doubt this would have slowed down Mittermeyer and Reuenthal.

Actually, seeing as it would have taken them a bit extra time to move the directional particle generators in place, then to disperse the particles, it might have been just enough delay to ensure Reinhard's defeat.

[MaiazuruX]

I wouldn't be surprised if Yang didn't survive Reinhard's death. His fleet was mostly exhausted by the time he was in position to fire on Reinhard, and if I remember right there were still a lot of combatants left.

Yang would have survived it. According to what his men were reporting, enemy defenses had 'completely collapsed'. Reinhard and Mueller's fleets would have been wiped out and their remnants would have fled.

The Twin Stars of the Empire might have blanched at the thought of conducting a general planetary bombardment, but I could see them specifically destroying government buildings and any remaining military bases on and around Heinessen, followed by a general campaign throughout FPA space to utterly remove their warfighting capability.

They might have struck several military targets on Heinessen, but the general campaign would never have happened. First, because their food supplies were heavily strained, and they had no time to do so.

Second, because despite all these losses, later battles would show that the Alliance still had some forces - Bucock managed to get 20,000 ships into his last fight, Yang managed to get 17,000 on his own side by himself. Given the dismantling of part of the Fleet by then, its clear the Alliance could have still rallied 40,000 or so ships, perhaps a bit more. Although outnumbered, Yang would simply have completely destroyed the Twin Stars supply lines, hindered them until lack of food made the imperials inefficient, and then have promptly cut their forces apart. I see the Twin Stars seeing that scenario as a possibility, and having no intent on being part of it. Really, I think they'd have simply left.

In the absence of Reinhard's trust, I think Oberstein becomes a destabilizing element - whomever he acts against, even with proper cause, is going to find some ally amongst their comrades and it would eventually be civil war. For this reason it's entirely possible that Oberstein would attempt to stand up Reuenthal as the successor, then immediately withdraw from public service.

Oberstein was standing smack next to Reinhard the whole time during the battle. He'd be as dead as Lohengramm.

[Vympel]

They might have struck several military targets on Heinessen, but the general campaign would never have happened. First, because their food supplies were heavily strained, and they had no time to do so.

Their supplies weren't strained, both Reuenthal and Mittermeyer had already looted Alliance supply bases, as had the rest of the Imperial fleet.

Second, because despite all these losses, later battles would show that the Alliance still had some forces - Bucock managed to get 20,000 ships into his last fight, Yang managed to get 17,000 on his own side by himself.

That was 7 months later, and a good portion of the less than 20,000 ships Yang got on his own side were refugees from Bucock's force - i.e. you're doubling up.

Given the dismantling of part of the Fleet by then, its clear the Alliance could have still rallied 40,000 or so ships, perhaps a bit more. Although outnumbered, Yang would simply have completely destroyed the Twin Stars supply lines, hindered them until lack of food made the imperials inefficient, and then have promptly cut their forces apart. I see the Twin Stars seeing that scenario as a possibility, and having no intent on being part of it. Really, I think they'd have simply left.

There's absolutely no way that there were some ~30,000 ships sitting around in Alliance space that Yang just decided to not use as Vermilion. His fleet of 17,000 ships was the entire Alliance force, that's explicitly stated. Further, Yang only had 3,000 combat-capable ships after Vermilion was over, and there were no forces defending the capital. There's therefore no indication they had any significant forces apart from this in the offing. The Alliance was basically prostrate and defenceless, and there are Imperial fleets at a chunk of their supply bases.

Oberstein was standing smack next to Reinhard the whole time during the battle. He'd be as dead as Lohengramm.

Point, totally forgot about that.

[MaiazuruX]

Their supplies weren't strained, both Reuenthal and Mittermeyer had already looted Alliance supply bases, as had the rest of the Imperial fleet.

They hadn't looted that much, if at all. After all, Mariendorf had gone to them so that, instead of following Reinhard's plan, they went to besiege Heinessen. They didn't have that many supplies. Certainly not enough to launch a grand campaign, not with their forces affected by their leader's death, not with the chance of fracturing which might entail. Their supplies and morale simply wouldn't have been that strong.

That was 7 months later, and a good portion of the less than 20,000 ships Yang got on his own side were refugees from Bucock's force - i.e. you're doubling up.

7 months of time during which they were pretty much supposed to be downsizing, certainly not building at a feverish rates.

For the Battle of Mar-Adetta (I'm not sure thats the final word on the grammar), Bucock brought 20,000 ships to the fight.

By the last stage of the fight, his chief of staff said this, shown in this video, at 10:01: They'd lost about 80% of their fleet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVdFmUjh ... re=related

Since at least a small portion of the fleet was lost afterwards, its clear that Bucock only got less than 4000 ships out to join Yang at that point. A few weeks before, he had sent 5,600 or so ships to Yang directly.

Now, by the time that Yang fooled Mecklinger, it was stated this, at 4:25.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gu69Vl6 ... re=related

Taking into account, then, that Bucock had given a total of 9,000 ships (roughly), Yang had at least managed to gather 11,000 or so on his own.

11,000 + 5,600 + 4,000 + 16,000 (the ships which fell with Bucock) = 36,600 ships. Thats the minimum number of ships the Alliance had left by the end of 799. Substract the 3,100 ships Yang had left at Vermillion, thats still 33,500 ships. And considering the Alliance was ordered to - and was at least to some extent - dismantling its fleet, its by no means far-fetched to thing that the Alliance could have managed to gather 35,000 to 40,000 ships at length, clearly under Yang's command (him being the main field commander at that point).

I do not believe that a nation under scrutiny would have built up 33,000 ships in 6 months. It makes no sense. The Alliance Government, by that point, was doing everything to PLEASE the Empire in order to keep independance. It wouldn't have engaged in such extensive shipbuilding that it would have surely attracted the Imperials pretty quickly.

As for Yang not having these ships, well, the Alliance is extremely vast. Its very possible all forces hadn't gathered yet. Some might have been still marshalling. Remember, Bucock lamented that the Alliance's defenses were being mustered pretty darn late.

At any rate, its impossible that Yang's 3,000 ships were the only ones left. It makes no sense in the political sense of what happened afterwards, and its impossible because of the state of the Alliance in late 799 and because of the Treaty of Balaat's demands.

Now I've stated my opinion with rather substancial proof, both stated and reasonably implied based on several factors. I'll be glad to be disproved, but give me clear counter-proof as well.

[Vympel]

They hadn't looted that much, if at all. After all, Mariendorf had gone to them so that, instead of following Reinhard's plan, they went to besiege Heinessen. They didn't have that many supplies. Certainly not enough to launch a grand campaign, not with their forces affected by their leader's death, not with the chance of fracturing which might entail. Their supplies and morale simply wouldn't have been that strong.

We've got no evidence either way really. It was 2 May when Mariendorf got to them - considering Muller got to Lycus on 24 April, IMO its likely that the other fleets ahd all been at those bases for a week. It wouldn't have taken that long to quell resistance.

7 months of time during which they were pretty much supposed to be downsizing, certainly not building at a feverish rates.

For the Battle of Mar-Adetta (I'm not sure thats the final word on the grammar), Bucock brought 20,000 ships to the fight.

By the last stage of the fight, his chief of staff said this, shown in this video, at 10:01: They'd lost about 80% of their fleet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVdFmUjh ... re=related

Since at least a small portion of the fleet was lost afterwards, its clear that Bucock only got less than 4000 ships out to join Yang at that point. A few weeks before, he had sent 5,600 or so ships to Yang directly.

Now, by the time that Yang fooled Mecklinger, it was stated this, at 4:25.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gu69Vl6 ... re=related

Taking into account, then, that Bucock had given a total of 9,000 ships (roughly), Yang had at least managed to gather 11,000 or so on his own.

11,000 + 5,600 + 4,000 + 16,000 (the ships which fell with Bucock) = 36,600 ships. Thats the minimum number of ships the Alliance had left by the end of 799. Substract the 3,100 ships Yang had left at Vermillion, thats still 33,500 ships. And considering the Alliance was ordered to - and was at least to some extent - dismantling its fleet, its by no means far-fetched to thing that the Alliance could have managed to gather 35,000 to 40,000 ships at length, clearly under Yang's command (him being the main field commander at that point).

Good analysis, but you're forgetting an important distinction - the Alliance was ordered to dismantle its battleships and carriers - not its fleet per se. Hence the asteroid factory churning out cruisers and destroyers that's destroyed when the Empire re-invades. Also, following Lennenkampt's death, the Alliance had free reign once more to do what it liked, and it was apparent that war was going to happen again, so they likely would've produced battleships and carriers again in the interim.

I do not believe that a nation under scrutiny would have built up 33,000 ships in 6 months. It makes no sense. The Alliance Government, by that point, was doing everything to PLEASE the Empire in order to keep independance. It wouldn't have engaged in such extensive shipbuilding that it would have surely attracted the Imperials pretty quickly.

As above- the Treaty of Barlat didn't concern itself with the quantity, but the quality of Alliance shipbuilding. They were not forbidden from building as many destroyers and cruisers as they liked. Just battleships and carriers.

As for Yang not having these ships, well, the Alliance is extremely vast. Its very possible all forces hadn't gathered yet. Some might have been still marshalling. Remember, Bucock lamented that the Alliance's defenses were being mustered pretty darn late.

Bucock never intimates that they've somehow failed to gather tens of thousands of ships elsewhere because of a lack of time. They had already scoured their scattered forces to create the 14th and 15th fleets - 20,000 ships together. And it'd make the Alliance simply total morons to give up ~30,000 ships not only for Rantemario, Yang's battles with Steinmetz, Lennenkampt and Wahlen, Vermilion - but to leave Heinessen completely undefended. There's no way Trunicht would've allowed that.

And really, there's plenty of time to gather those forces, if they exist. Rantemario happened in early February. Yang set off from Heinessen in late February. Vermilion didn't happen until late April. I simply don't believe that there were 30,000 other ships for whom over 3 months (given Imperial invasion through Fezzan was apparent well before) was not enough time to muster.

EDIT: if the amount of ships they built seems too much for the Empire to tolerate, consider the situation - the 14th and 15th fleets were hastily already created from a mixture of patrol fleets, worn out fleets, untested new fleets, etc. In circumstances where the Alliance fleet was nothing but 3,000 ships left (and a portion of that was battleships and carriers which had to be scrapped under the treaty) - how is the Alliance supposed to patrol its own territory? Bare minimum, they'd have to build around that many ships simply to have a bare capability to patrol their own territory. And its no military threat to the Empire. From there, its a hop skip and a jump to over 10,000 more.

[MaiazuruX]

Good analysis, but you're forgetting an important distinction - the Alliance was ordered to dismantle its battleships and carriers - not its fleet per se. Hence the asteroid factory churning out cruisers and destroyers that's destroyed when the Empire re-invades. Also, following Lennenkampt's death, the Alliance had free reign once more to do what it liked, and it was apparent that war was going to happen again, so they likely would've produced battleships and carriers again in the interim.

Lets be honest here: both your or my explanation could work. They both make sense. And we'll never know which one it was.

But really, then you're saying that Yang was an utter fool. Since, with 3,000 ships, it would mean he'd be unable to do anything for the Alliance anymore. Yet he seemed very certain that the Alliance would be safe 'for a while'. Its implied by the way Yang talked that 'a while' was enough time to rebuild their forces sufficiently to negate a new invasion.

Yang, after all, had been confident that killing Reinhard would be a victory for the Alliance, in that it would ensure its survival. Now how can that happen with 100,000+ enemy ships rampaging unopposed?

Yang was at least as good, and perhaps a bit better - at reading a situation then Reinhard was. How do you see the situation turning to Yang's advantage?

[Connor MacLeod]

There''s more to putting a fleet together than just building the ships. You have to have sufficient crews available to run them - and they have to be trained. What happens if you're running a shortage of starship engineers, or gunners?

There's also the logistical train to support them. You have to have the supply fleet to support them - provide fuel, munitions, comsumables, etc.

Edit: and there's an asteroid factory turning out ships, and we know a timeframe? Why didn't anyone mention this before?

[Vympel]

Lets be honest here: both your or my explanation could work. They both make sense. And we'll never know which one it was.

Yup.

But really, then you're saying that Yang was an utter fool. Since, with 3,000 ships, it would mean he'd be unable to do anything for the Alliance anymore. Yet he seemed very certain that the Alliance would be safe 'for a while'. Its implied by the way Yang talked that 'a while' was enough time to rebuild their forces sufficiently to negate a new invasion.

Yang, after all, had been confident that killing Reinhard would be a victory for the Alliance, in that it would ensure its survival. Now how can that happen with 100,000+ enemy ships rampaging unopposed?

Yang was at least as good, and perhaps a bit better - at reading a situation then Reinhard was. How do you see the situation turning to Yang's advantage?

For my part I think Yang is right - remember in my own post I said they'd return to the Empire to figure shit out, I didn't think they'd go rampaging. However I didn't think it was a supply issue, it'd be more of a matter of morale shock. Sorry if I made it seem that way, but yeah I don't think the Empire would've gone rampaging through the Alliance after Reinhard's death.

Unfortunately we just don't know how long the Alliance would've been safe - I've got a difficult time envisaging their building up a credible defence fleet (say, in excess of 50-60,000 ships) unless Reinhard's subordinates really did go to war with each other in the interim. We've got to be careful of assuming Yang will always be right, too. Whilst he was good at predicting most things, he did have his blindspots, and he wasn't always correct in terms of time frames.

EDIT: but if I'm right, and what was left at Vermilion was all the Alliance had at the time, then Yang's not a moron, it just means he thinks the Alliance will have enough of a reprieve to rebuild its fleets to a credible defensive level - besides, he can't predict what losses he'll take. It would never be the 240,000 ships it had at the start of the series, though.

[Vympel]

There''s more to putting a fleet together than just building the ships. You have to have sufficient crews available to run them - and they have to be trained. What happens if you're running a shortage of starship engineers, or gunners?

There's also the logistical train to support them. You have to have the supply fleet to support them - provide fuel, munitions, comsumables, etc.

Edit: and there's an asteroid factory turning out ships, and we know a timeframe? Why didn't anyone mention this before?

It's not really helpful. The base is there, and destroyers are popping out, and then its blown up.

[MaiazuruX]

Unfortunately we just don't know how long the Alliance would've been safe - I've got a difficult time envisaging their building up a credible defence fleet (say, in excess of 50-60,000 ships) unless Reinhard's subordinates really did go to war with each other in the interim. We've got to be careful of assuming Yang will always be right, too. Whilst he was good at predicting most things, he did have his blindspots, and he wasn't always correct in terms of time frames.

Well, if it goes with my theory, they'd have a larger headstart.

Honestly? I think Yang was right about Reinhard holding the whole thing together. The admirals would have to deal with the Empire and re-stabilize it before even thinking about the Alliance. It'd give them a few months, perhaps a year all in all.

As for a creadible defence, well, they'd have to rely on Yang for good long while, and he'd likely be forced to command the on the field until the defenses would be strong enough. And he'd hate every single minute of it.