Are today's youngsters really worse?

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ArmorPierce
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Re: Are today's youngsters really worse?

Post by ArmorPierce »

Simon_Jester wrote:ArmorPierce, that ignores all the recessions that happened in off-years. There were panics over and over throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, some of them roughly as large as the panics you cite. Plus, plenty of other crises happen in between recessions- World War One comes to mind.

The point isn't that you can't find economic crises recurring every 80 to 90 years if you cherrypick through the numerous panics which have occured at roughly 10-20 year intervals ever since the modern stock/banking economy was founded. It's that the response to those crises isn't predictable or the same every time. It doesn't have the same effects on generational psychology- the way people reacted to the Great Depression is very different from the way they're reacting to the current crisis, and both are very different from the reaction to a 19th century depression.

The forces involved are at best quasi-cyclic; there's so much room for chaos theory to kick in that you can't generate a predictable four-cycle engine of generations off of it. So calling the people who were born around 1980 a "Hero Generation" because of analogy to people who lived 80 or 160 years earlier, while abstracting out all the confounding variables, strikes me as a very bad model.
Those were the most major ones of the 19th, 20th and 21st century in terms of of depth. The exact cut off would be more be subjective however.

I don't know about the hero generation but I will put forth this. It is a fact that during good times, people become greedy and more risky with their financial decisions. Following bad times people become more risk averse. This is true across the board. People are people and people tend to react predictably on a basic level across time.

Logically it would follow that the worse financial crisis you followed, the greater the risk aversion.
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Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht frist and lsat ltteer are in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by it slef but the wrod as a wlohe.
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Spoonist
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Re: Are today's youngsters really worse?

Post by Spoonist »

ArmorPierce wrote:Logically it would follow that the worse financial crisis you followed, the greater the risk aversion.
While I might agree that the investment firms would follow the pattern you describe. However it does not work with people nor the market.

Take gambling, those who are most likely to become addicted are early winners, that then keep on losing. They don't stop, instead a loss is just another reason to double your next bet etc.
Same with banks, they rely more heavily on regulation than on market, as the last crisis in the US showed. Plenty of banks did what a compulsive gambler would do i.e. bet more and take more risks the year before the crisis started to show publicly. Because the guys employed by the banks didn't have a long term incentive like an investment firm would. Instead the christmas bonus would depend on how big risks you were willing to take with other people's money.

Also we have seen again and again that people that invest in pyramid schemes are more likely to invest again in similar schemes, etc.

So a recession does not necessarily add a risk aversion inoculation, instead its simply less flow of cash and profit that generates less flow of cash and profit etc in a downwards spiral.
Or to put it in other words, its not that they don't want to take similar risks, its because they can't or are not allowed to take similar risks.
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ArmorPierce
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Re: Are today's youngsters really worse?

Post by ArmorPierce »

According to this article http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/07/ ... 3520100728, self surveyed americans reported risk tolerance has decreased

While there are those that will act like gambling addicts, I doubt that the majority of Americans are acting like addicts. Attitudes of everyone doesn't need to shift, just the average which per survey has. Is the increased risk aversion here to stay and result in policy changes such as increased regulation? We'll see in the next couple decades I suppose. My concern is continued spin of causes and fault of the recession by the conservative media and people buying it.
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Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht frist and lsat ltteer are in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by it slef but the wrod as a wlohe.
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ArmorPierce
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Re: Are today's youngsters really worse?

Post by ArmorPierce »

Another example of risk aversion increasing:

“Prudential, which polled more than 1,000 investors between the ages of 35 and 70 online earlier this year, found that 58% of those surveyed have lost faith in the stock market. Even more alarming, 44% said they plan to never invest in stocks. Ever.”

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/01/markets ... d=HP_River

Those numbers are actually fairly incredible.
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To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift. ~Steve Prefontaine
Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht frist and lsat ltteer are in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by it slef but the wrod as a wlohe.
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