On the other hand I could argue a case for a stronger Euro if Greece & other weak peripheral nations are allowed to leave or forcibly ejected. Without hundreds of billions being siphoned from productive sectors of the economy to pay for bad debts every year, what remains of the Eurozone will be far more productive and competitive in the world economy. This encourages investments in the core nations and leads to a stronger Euro in the medium to long term. I could also make a plausible argument for market makers doing a run on the Euro or buying into it and driving up its value immediately after Greece goes off the Euro.Surlethe wrote:No, if Europe lets Greece crash and burn, Greece will go off the euro in order to cushion their landing. Then the exchange markets will run on the euro and fuck over the entire common currency zone. The only way to let Greece crash and burn is to be able to force it to stay on the euro while that happens. Is the assumption of that sort of central authority over individual states' sovereignty in the cards?
Removing my bankers' hat, I'm fairly sure a Greek default is inevitable, whether they call it a default or a payment restructuring plan it's a default. I believe everyone involved in the talks is fully aware of this whether they choose to say so or not, the numbers are what they are, they all see the books and understand them, they're just trying to figure out who gets screwed and when plus what advantages can be gained by the parties involved before things go kablooie.