Survey deals blow to Sinn Féin hopes of united Ireland

[Bernkastel]

From the Guardian.

Sinn Féin's campaign for a united Ireland was dealt a severe blow on Friday when a survey in Northern Ireland showed that most Catholics there preferred to remain within the UK.

Fifty two per cent of Catholics living in Northern Ireland wanted that union to continue, while 35% said they desired a united Ireland. Overall, 73% of respondents to the Life and Times survey – one of the main polling bodies in the province – said they wished to stay in the UK rather than link up with Dublin.

Although both Sinn Féin and the smaller nationalist SDLP party questioned the accuracy of the poll, the Life and Times survey was commissioned by the office of the first and deputy first minister at Stormont, jointly headed by Martin McGuinness and Peter Robinson. In successive Life and Times surveys since 2008, a majority of Catholics taking part have indicated a preference for staying in the UK. Over the last few years, the Irish Republic has been perceived to be less attractive to northerners following Dublin's fiscal crisis and the ongoing recession.

An overwhelming number of Protestants in the north of Ireland continue to support the maintenance of the union with Britain. Only 4% of northern Protestants opted for Irish unity in the poll.

The results of the survey come as Sinn Féin prepares to launch another push for Irish unity. The party is holding a rally in Dublin this weekend at which its president, Gerry Adams, will put the case for unification The Democratic Unionist party – the single biggest party in the Stormont Assembly – welcomed the Life and Times survey and said it showed that traditional communal loyalties were "crumbling away". Although a majority of Catholics vote for Sinn Féin, the most robustly pro-united Ireland party on the island, unionist have argued that this does not necessarily translate into support for ending the union.

The Northern Ireland Life and Times survey has been carrying out polls tracking political attitudes in the province since the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998.

[evilsoup]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, maybe those (real/continuity/splitters)IRA fuckers can fuck off and die at last. I wonder when this started to be the case; at what point did even the papists start wanting to stay in the union? Do you know if there were any polls on this issue prior to 1998?

[madd0ct0r]

well, you don't seem like an idiot at all.

As for the OP, Ireland's fucked. Northern Ireland is also fucked. UK government spending is something like 70% of the economy there. Or it was, dunno what the Con-Dems have done to it.

Ireland doesn't want NI at the moment, because it needs another depressed ex industrial area like a hole in the head.
same goes for the uk really. Always thought if the spending level became well known you'd get a large movement in the UK to give it back.

[K. A. Pital]

There's no way Britain couldn't have succeded in taking Northern Ireland and making it an undetouchable part of itself - they had a good century of time to thorougly assimilate it.

[evilsoup]

well, you don't seem like an idiot at all.

What, you think the IRA (or their political wing) had a good point when they murdered people over their pointless nationalist bullshit?

Every Irish person I've met has thought that the republicans can fuck off. Now, that is a rather self-selecting group (they did all choose to live in England), but I would genuinely wonder if there are any polls on the issue in Ireland.

EDIT:@Stas Bush:
I thought you were an internationalist? How do you feel about the nationalist's complete betrayal of James Connolly's socialism after Irish independence? Do you think Chechnya should be independent from Russia?

[K. A. Pital]

I am. The Irish nationalists like Sinn Fein don't have a shred of my sympathy after they betrayed socialism, that's right. I'm also not a fan of either Catholic or Protestant religion, which is the main issue of the divide.

I merely said that Britain has had lots of time to successfully integrate part of Ireland in itself.

[evilsoup]

Hrm okay then. (Also before anyone gets the wrong idea, yes I'm aware of the massive abuses that the military police did, as far as I'm concerned those people can also fuck off. But the IRA were deliberately provoking that shit by blowing people the fuck up, for what I consider a fucking stupid cause, so they can fuck off)

[K. A. Pital]

The RUC and IRA both engaged in torture and abuses. I'm not sure by the 1980s the question of Northern Ireland could've been resolved in favor of it becoming a part of Ireland and not Britain, nah.

[Zaune]

The RUC and IRA both engaged in torture and abuses. I'm not sure by the 1980s the question of Northern Ireland could've been resolved in favor of it becoming a part of Ireland and not Britain, nah.

Towards the end of active counter-insurgency operations over there, most people didn't care which country they ended up part of so long as the bloodshed was done with. That the IRA and the UDF were into drug-dealing and protection rackets for funding certainly didn't help.

[Captain Seafort]

The RUC and IRA both engaged in torture and abuses. I'm not sure by the 1980s the question of Northern Ireland could've been resolved in favor of it becoming a part of Ireland and not Britain, nah.

Giving the north to the Republic would never have done anything but make the problem ten times worse. Why do you think the six counties stayed with the UK in the first place?

[madd0ct0r]

Because, at the time, the protestants were in the majority.

(which is what you'd expect given Cromwell's actions...)

The catholic groups and the nationalists became increasingly aligned, to the point of synonymous. This left the protestants using the idea of being British as a counter identity. Plus the whole historical Cromwell genocidal shit.

the two social groups (split along the religious divide) were so mutually mistrustful of each other that it became impossible to cross the political lines. Even if you were nationalist, as a protestant you couldn't express it openly, nor really do much about it.

A few years ago, eastern Europe started to join the EU, and we got a nice large influx of skilled Catholic workers to the UK and Northern Ireland. the population demographic started to change.

then we got the recession and everyone is suddenly voting with their wallet.

@evilsoup - I called you an idiot because of the tone of your comment, although reading back over i think it was just the use of the word 'papist'. Bit of a trigger word. I've had to deal with too many idiots over the years.

[K. A. Pital]

Yeah, Cromwell's policies in Ireland do have to be mentioned if we're going to discuss how Britain even took over Northern Ireland in the first place. Considering almost half a million Catholics died as a result of Cromwell's conquest of Ireland, undeniably that event was fundamental to shape the religious divide in the coming centuries. Britain repeatedly crushed Ireland using war and empowered their gentry to take control of the land, while Catholics were screwed.

[evilsoup]

@evilsoup - I called you an idiot because of the tone of your comment, although reading back over i think it was just the use of the word 'papist'. Bit of a trigger word. I've had to deal with too many idiots over the years.

Fair enough.

@Stas: If I could go back in time and punch Cromwell and tell him to be less of a dickhead, I would. I'm even open to Britain giving some compensation to Ireland (if we haven't already). I was mostly just happy to see the late-20th-century IRA having everything they were working towards frustrated, their dreams collapsing like a giant balloon that cannot even be held up by the hot air they produce.

[Captain Seafort]

Because, at the time, the protestants were in the majority.

Sort of. I was referring more to the fact that if the Irish Free State had encompassed the whole island when it was formed, the result would have made the Civil War, the 50s campaign and the Troubles look trivial.

[K. A. Pital]

I was referring more to the fact that if the Irish Free State had encompassed the whole island when it was formed, the result would have made the Civil War, the 50s campaign and the Troubles look trivial.

Why?

[Captain Seafort]

Why?

Because there were far more Unionists in the north than the IRA could ever hope to muster up there, and they'd been preparing to fight against Home Rule, let alone full independence, for decades. "Ulster will fight, and Ulster will be right". The Anglo-Irish War ended relatively quickly because we decided Ireland was no longer worth the trouble, and the Civil War because the anti-treaty IRA were never anything but a small minority. The northern Unionists were numerous enough and determined enough to keep going as long as the post-treaty northern IRA did, and with far greater local support.

[K. A. Pital]

Because there were far more Unionists in the north than the IRA could ever hope to muster up there, and they'd been preparing to fight against Home Rule, let alone full independence, for decades.

So Ireland would have a problem, quite possibly lots of terrorism, with the Unionists. I can't figure just why it would make everything that happened IRL look "trivial".

[evilsoup]

It wouldn't have been 'terrorism' so much as 'full-blown civil war' (because of Britiss imperial policy of divide and conquer, as in India leading to a similar situation there). Think the difference between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

[Captain Seafort]

So Ireland would have a problem, quite possibly lots of terrorism, with the Unionists. I can't figure just why it would make everything that happened IRL look "trivial".

I use the term as a comparison between the actual trouble and the scale and duration of the problem that the Unionists would have caused, due to them being far stronger, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of the total population than either the anti-treaty IRA or the Provos, combined with the fact that there's no reason whatsoever that they'd be any less persistent than the Officials or Provos.

[General Mung Beans]

The majority of people in NI want to stay in the UK. End of story.

[madd0ct0r]

it's a story that's been running for hundreds of years. why should it end now?

I hate to say it, but Seafort is right. If NI had been returned, the mess the unionists would have made would have been pretty horrible. As bad as it was, it would have been worse.

Still, people are growing accustomed to peace, and are a lot less willing to give it up. The country is mellowing. I'm just worried about the recession. High unemployment in young men does not social stability make.

[General Mung Beans]

it's a story that's been running for hundreds of years. why should it end now?

I hate to say it, but Seafort is right. If NI had been returned, the mess the unionists would have made would have been pretty horrible. As bad as it was, it would have been worse.

Still, people are growing accustomed to peace, and are a lot less willing to give it up. The country is mellowing. I'm just worried about the recession. High unemployment in young men does not social stability make.

Well in the US crime is still going down (ever since the mid 90s or so) despite the Recession and that also happened during the Great Depression.

[K. A. Pital]

Well in the US crime is still going down (ever since the mid 90s or so) despite the Recession and that also happened during the Great Depression.

Keeping almost 2% of the population in prison tends to help here, too. The US prison population has been growing at the same time as crime has been receding.

[bobalot]

The majority of people in NI want to stay in the UK. End of story.

Honestly, why the fuck did you even bother post in this thread?

As for Ireland, I would be curious to see the level of support for a United Ireland prior to the GFC and several months after the worst of it. I'm sure people in NI would be looking south at the virtual depression in Ireland and not being enthused at the thought of unification.

[Teebs]

As for Ireland, I would be curious to see the level of support for a United Ireland prior to the GFC and several months after the worst of it. I'm sure people in NI would be looking south at the virtual depression in Ireland and not being enthused at the thought of unification.

The Unionist parties have pretty consistently achieved 55-60% of the votes in Northern Ireland. In the 70s there was a referendum on the matter. The Nationalists boycotted it, so it ended up with a result in the region of 99% in favour of staying in the UK. However, turnout was over 55%, almost every single one of the majority that did vote wanted union. So, it seems fairly safe to conclude that even if support for continued union was not as high in the past, it still had a comfortable majority at least as far back as the 70s.

I do find it interesting though that of Northern Ireland's four main parties both Unionist ones are conservative in nature while both Nationalist ones are left-wing. I wonder whether there are any people who discreetly vote against their community for normal political reasons.

Personally the only party I could realistically see myself voting for in NI is the Alliance Party which makes a point of being non-sectarian and generally liberal.