FDR Pearl Harbor conspiracy theory

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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by PainRack »

Simon_Jester wrote:Sigh.

OK, look. Am I wrong in thinking that Churchill sincerely thought Singapore could/would hold out longer against a Japanese landward attack than it actually did? Because I regret bringing this issue up at all now, but that really was all I was trying to say: to illustrate the idea that the defensibility of a remote outpost can appear very different at home than it does on the spot. There are so many variables simply not known from thousands of miles away- the psychological state of the commander, the detailed readiness condition of the defenses, and so on. It simply cannot be managed from that far away.
Depends on whether you mean Churchill hoped Singapore could hold out longer or he had a realistic expectation that it could. Dill, and any other general certainly did not. Here's a fun fact. There was a quote once where the British expected to hold out 70 days without relief based on existing resources. While the British did get more troops than that estimate, that's approximately how long they DID hold out.

I'm... more of harping on the very specific Churchill quote you used, the one where he stated that he did not expect that there was no landward defences in Singapore, just like a battleship would not have a bottom.
So regardless of what Churchill knew or did not know about the state of the defenses- whether he expected there to be pillboxes and entrenchments at least along the lines of what Britain itself had dug along its own coasts in 1940, or... fuck, something- is immaterial. The point is, he saw Singapore and thought "fortress packed with troops and liberally supplied with ammunition," while the reality on the ground was more like "island full of civilians and a mob of routed soldiers, under leadership that hadn't fully risen to the occasion as one might hope."
He didn't. He saw an area which shouldn't be attacked by the Japanese due to the might of the combined British and US and chose not to defend it. When the Japanese had the audacity to attack, he then made unreasonable demands on the troops and generals involved and decided to blame the generals/troops later for daring to fail him.
It's the strategic perception gap that's important, and that impacts the planning of the people in the capital. At the capital everyone expects to hear that within the limits of their resources, the field commanders are always well prepared to fight it out, that defensible locations are well held and there are good plans for holding them, that the commanders are rallying the troops as best they can, that the threats the defenders are planning to face are realistic so that resources are not wasted, and so on.

At the front, this often simply isn't so. And so it was at Pearl Harbor.
I won't bemoan the point. But Singapore was the.... worst example you could plausibly use. Despite the deficiencies involved, the Indian forces under Heath successfully fought a rearguard retreat into Johore before they collapsed as an effective force. There was lots of things the British could had done better or should planned better, even with their limitations, but the results were amazing. Green troops managed to rally and successfully retreat even after the Japanese staged an armoured breakthrough at Jitra that routed Indian forces. France, despite having tanks, more combat power and parity did not.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Zinegata wrote:Not at all. In both instances - the fall of Singapore and Tobruk in 1942 - the responsibility for the defeat falls more on the British field commander. Based on the correlation of forces high command had every reason to expect they could have held out longer than they actually did. In the case of Singapore - even if the defenses were built, what could they have accomplished when their leadership was timid and disorganized? It's telling that when Singapore's water reservoirs were overrun, the British generals unanimously opposed attempting to retake them even though their troops had yet to begin suffering from thirst or water deprivation. They simply gave up.
That's.... disingenious. By the time the water reservoirs were taken, the island WAS overrun. What was left was Singapore town itself and by this point in time, morale was low and desertion rampant amongst the garrison. C&C was non existant.
Zinegata wrote:Some added evidence:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_ ... e_landings

The initial Japanese landings were opposed largely by a single Australian brigade, which fought until it was virtually wiped out. They received virtually no reinforcements until they were wiped out, as Percival remained neurotically afraid that the Japanese would land elsewhere.

By contrast...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_ ... he_Pockets

The Bataan defenders counter-attacked as soon as they realized the Japanese were infiltrating their positions, crushing the penetrations and restoring the defense line. Even more remarkable was this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_ ... the_Points

Wherein the Bataan defenders - without the benefit of large-calibre naval guns - defeated an amphibious assault of over 2,000 Japanese troops by mere dint of aggressive active defense.
And... part of the reason was only due to the calibre of troops and commanders.

Indian forces had been in a continous, fighting retreat/rout since decemember. The Australians had been involved in heavy fighting before retreating to Singapore, and had not finished reorganising. The terrain,numbers and tactics involved was different. In Baataan, the larger American forces were able to actually establish a somewhat continous line and retained communications with each other.
Equipment failure, numbers, terrain and etc meant that the Australians could not.
Blaming the commander was simply the easy way out. There was plenty of things Perceival did wrong, but many of those reasons were also due to the limitations and resources he had to work within.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Zinegata wrote:Not at all. In both instances - the fall of Singapore and Tobruk in 1942 - the responsibility for the defeat falls more on the British field commander. Based on the correlation of forces high command had every reason to expect they could have held out longer than they actually did.
The mindset of the commander is one of the things known on the spot and not known in the capital.

Let us stipulate, for the sake of argument, that you're totally right; I don't want to try to get involved in a dispute over it being the field commanders' fault. But if the field commanders are psychologically unable to continue fighting, and if the capital knew this, those commanders would be replaced. This does not absolve them of any responsibility; it is simply a fact. No one would knowingly leave defense of an important place in command of someone they knew was mentally unready to defend it. And yet this happens, time and again- which is what I was getting at originally, when talking about the defense of Pearl Harbor.
PainRack wrote:Depends on whether you mean Churchill hoped Singapore could hold out longer or he had a realistic expectation that it could. Dill, and any other general certainly did not. Here's a fun fact. There was a quote once where the British expected to hold out 70 days without relief based on existing resources. While the British did get more troops than that estimate, that's approximately how long they DID hold out.

I'm... more of harping on the very specific Churchill quote you used, the one where he stated that he did not expect that there was no landward defences in Singapore, just like a battleship would not have a bottom.
I'd think Churchill's unreasonable expectations came from a combination of wishful thinking, excessive faith in the psychological invincibility of his armies* and "I assume that measure X has been taken, because of course measure X would always be taken."

I'm not trying to pin any blame on any person, that is entirely not my interest. I'm sorry that I chose an attempted-illustrative quote that strikes you as an example of Churchill trying to shift blame away from himself for making a bad decision. But... you do see what I'm getting at, yes?

Because again, this was originally about Pearl Harbor. Where I suspect that after the attack, FDR and company would be rather surprised to learn that Short's planes had been bunched off and unable to take off, or that his "this despatch is to be considered a war warning" message hadn't gotten Kimmel to put his fleet at a higher level of readiness. To me, that's just an observation about the difference in knowledge between the capital and the field command, and the capital's tendency to fill in what they don't know about field conditions with an excessively optimistic picture.

When things go badly on the front, there will always be a certain amount of "holy shit what do you mean you didn't do X?" coming from the capital. This will usually be partly sincere- honest belief that a stronger defense was possible, when it wasn't- and partly ass-covering, with people in the capital trying to explain why they were not responsible for the defeat.

*Pretty much every head of state in that war issued "not one step back" orders to someone at some point- Churchill issued one to Singapore, which was a tip-off that he didn't know anywhere near as much as he should have about how close to collapse the defenses were.
I won't bemoan the point. But Singapore was the.... worst example you could plausibly use. Despite the deficiencies involved, the Indian forces under Heath successfully fought a rearguard retreat into Johore before they collapsed as an effective force. There was lots of things the British could had done better or should planned better, even with their limitations, but the results were amazing. Green troops managed to rally and successfully retreat even after the Japanese staged an armoured breakthrough at Jitra that routed Indian forces. France, despite having tanks, more combat power and parity did not.
I was referring to the island specifically, not the campaign as a whole, simply because that is the critical point where the expectations of the capital and the situation in the field diverged. Since I'm not really interested in anything but that divergence for purposes of what I was originally saying.

But I shouldn't have picked a misleading and ill-considered example simply because it happened to express the idea of "high command is surprised by the collapse of a strategic point" very neatly. I didn't put enough thought into it.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Likewise, the Philippine Division and numerous American formations - which formed the core of Bataan's defense - had been in constant fighting on the way to retreat to Bataan. The former in particular was in very bad shape, and when they reached Bataan they were greeted by immediate orders of half-rations. Yet they did manage to reorganize their troops and their lines. Again, the failure of leadership at Singapore is clear for all to see. There is a reason why Wainwright was awarded the Medal of Honor, while Percival was denied a Knighthood.

Percival by contrast essentially allowed his troops to vaporize. Discussion of pre-war fortifcations along the Johore is frankly moot, when Percival had 6,000 trained engineers yet he refused to throw up any entrenchments along the Johore because he feared it would damage morale. Bluntly, such stupidity would have been more damaging to morale - as there was a feeling amongst the Commonwealth troops that incompetent British commanders were sending them off to die needlessly - which Percival did do to the Australian 22nd Brigade by covering his ears and pretending it didn't need reinforcements. That's why the Australians started deserting in the first place - and why some captured Indian soldiers ended up signing up for Japan's INA.

Thus, assertions that Churchill was blind to the situation on the ground are frankly a bit exagerrated - to the point of being just "fashionable Churchill-bashing". Based on the resources available, high command (Churchill) could have reasonably expected sustained resistance. Even fucking Yamashita himself agreed that they could have resisted for weeks if not months and there was nothing he could have done about it. But the British commanders on the ground lost their nerve. They were inexcusably - arguably criminally - incompetent. That they were not sacked by Churchill is a valid argument against Churchill, but still does not excuse Percival or his other generals. If they wanted to check out, they should have done it themselves and not taken the whole garrison with them.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Zinegata wrote:Thus, assertions that Churchill was blind to the situation on the ground are frankly a bit exagerrated - to the point of being just "fashionable Churchill-bashing". Based on the resources available, high command (Churchill) could have reasonably expected sustained resistance. Even fucking Yamashita himself agreed that they could have resisted for weeks if not months and there was nothing he could have done about it.
There's a psychological factor here.

Given minimal resources, no hope of reinforcement, and a powerful victorious army that had been driving his troops back for months, Yamashita's natural response was to dig in and make a fight of it. We know this, because that's exactly what he did in the Philippines. Churchill's credentials on the matter of last stands aren't as good as Yamashita's, mostly because he never commanded troops in a situation where it might happen. But I think it's fair to say that he, too, was naturally inclined to keep fighting until further resistance was impossible, not merely unlikely to change the outcome of the battle.

As I understand it, and keeping in mind what PainRack said, the British fought competently enough during the retreat down the peninsula- given that they were dealing with gross air and naval inferiority, they were pretty much stuck with a losing battle.

Once they reached Singapore, the morale of the troops was poor, supplies limited, and (again) all hope of reinforcement gone. At this point, Percival was confronted with a choice- try and rally the troops to defend the island inch by inch, delaying and damaging the Japanese force as long as possible, or give up knowing that the battle could not be won.

In Percival's shoes, Yamashita would have taken the first option- again, we know this, because he did exactly that three years later in the Philippines. Churchill- who knows? Percival essentially chose the latter. Maybe his troops' morale had collapsed to the point where he couldn't have rallied them, but my impression is that he didn't really try. In that, I agree with you.
But the British commanders on the ground lost their nerve. They were inexcusably - arguably criminally - incompetent. That they were not sacked by Churchill is a valid argument against Churchill, but still does not excuse Percival or his other generals.
The same argument that got me into this discussion applies to the decision not to sack Percival- even if he was in a state of despair and collapse, this could not be nearly so well known from London as it would be from his own headquarters.

There's another factor, too- if there's any resistance still going on, changing commanders while the troops are in the process of being defeated isn't necessarily going to improve matters. At some point it's like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic- or perhaps like replacing Custer fifteen minutes before the Sioux attack at Little Bighorn won't change the outcome.

This factor makes the high command understandably reluctant to replace field commanders in the middle of a battle.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Zinegata wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:On the other hand, some credit also has to be given to the Japanese for maintaining a fair level of secrecy surrounding their military capabilities. Aside from brillant American code-breaking efforts, the Americans often knew surprisingly little about Japan's capabilities. The Americans very often got troop estimates wrong (leading to bloodbaths like Pelelieu). They had no idea they wiped out Japanese carrier aviation during the Battle of Philippine Sea, or how desperate Japanese pilot training had become. Heck, they even had no idea what happened to the Mutsu until after the end of the war.
Or even the true caliber of the guns of the Yamato-class battleships; until the end of the war, or nearly so, it was believed they mounted 16" guns instead of the 18.1" they actually mounted.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Zinegata wrote:Likewise, the Philippine Division and numerous American formations - which formed the core of Bataan's defense - had been in constant fighting on the way to retreat to Bataan. The former in particular was in very bad shape, and when they reached Bataan they were greeted by immediate orders of half-rations. Yet they did manage to reorganize their troops and their lines. Again, the failure of leadership at Singapore is clear for all to see. There is a reason why Wainwright was awarded the Medal of Honor, while Percival was denied a Knighthood.

Percival by contrast essentially allowed his troops to vaporize. Discussion of pre-war fortifcations along the Johore is frankly moot, when Percival had 6,000 trained engineers yet he refused to throw up any entrenchments along the Johore because he feared it would damage morale. Bluntly, such stupidity would have been more damaging to morale - as there was a feeling amongst the Commonwealth troops that incompetent British commanders were sending them off to die needlessly - which Percival did do to the Australian 22nd Brigade by covering his ears and pretending it didn't need reinforcements. That's why the Australians started deserting in the first place - and why some captured Indian soldiers ended up signing up for Japan's INA.
Try again. If one was attempting to argue that Wainwright or the Americans fought better than Singapore defenders, guess what? You're right.

I'm contesting however that the defeat and dissolution was due mostly to the fault of the British commanders responsible.
Let's see the original point through shall we? The retreat of the Phillipines 1st Division as well as American forces were facillitated by the relatively larger resources of the American army, including trucks. The Indian Corp on the other hand, faced Japanese light armour, and withdrew through the jungle/swamp on foot, re-established another fighting positiono, was forced back again, routed through roads and jungle, re-established itself, fought again, retreated..... and etc UNTIL it was finally expended in Johore.
The Phillipines division on the other hand had fought holding actions to secure the retreat into Baataan at that point. While they were major battles, the scale of the losses is not similar. The Indian Corp did not collapse after one battle. They effectively collapsed after withdrawing the whole of Malaya coast, fighting more than 5 major battles before they did collapse. And they did it without the tanks, less artillery, literally no aircover/anti aircraft guns the Phillipine defenders enjoyed.

Perceival was also leading a multi-national, coalition force, unlike MacArthur which held effective command powers over both Phillipines and American forces.

You also brought up Stimson old argument that they failed to fortify the "northern" coasts of Singapore. For your information, there WAS a defensive line built in Johore, ordered by Perceival. Of course, it wasn't fully completed because pre-war construction didn't occur, and more importantly, other engineering efforts had been built in Kuala Lumpur and etc. If the argument becomes that Perceival should had concentrated his engineering efforts in Johore, then this ignores the oders and campaign strategy that Perceival, Brooke Popham and Wavell established and he had to follow. Namely, fight holding actions in the north of Malaya, holding key critical points which would allow more reinforcements to arrive to fight the Japanese. The Singapore Strategy. Perceival could and was criticised for holding on to positions far longer than warranted,believing that holding longer at Kuala Lumpur for example would buy more time for convoys to arrive. yet, at the same period of time, his immediate superiors and later, Wavell was ordering him to launch "aggressive" actions up north so as to stymie the Japanese.

As for the 22nd Brigade, I would highlight that it was slightly more complex than that, and a proper discussion would talk about the incompetence of Bennet as well as the failure in establishing lines of communication here. Essentially, Perceival had limited forces and he held men in reserve to meet the feint at Tekong. His HQ failed to realise the threat involved due to poor communications and then Bennet screwed up his defensive lines and movement of reinforcements.
A failure on the part of the commanders certainly, but hardly one that "doomed" Singapore resistance or shortened it by months. Such failure was already guranteed, as lack of ammunition denied artillery fire support, meaning the Fortress of Singapore, even its field artillery could not act effectively as counter-battery fire, much less provide support to her troops. Limited airpower.
Thus, assertions that Churchill was blind to the situation on the ground are frankly a bit exagerrated - to the point of being just "fashionable Churchill-bashing". Based on the resources available, high command (Churchill) could have reasonably expected sustained resistance.
Except Dills pre 1941, Alan Brook CIGS during the invasion did not believe that Perceival could hold on much longer. Brooke in 23 January decrided the despatch of 18th division to Singapore.
Quote" On the other hand, reinforcemetns for Singapore might well be too late, as turned out to be the case with the 18th Division, whilst reinforcements to Burma might still save the situation there"

This was while the Japanese were still completing the conquest of Johore. It also ignores other committee meetings earlier where Brooke discussed whether planned reinforcements to Singapore was too late and Burma might be a better choice.
Even fucking Yamashita himself agreed that they could have resisted for weeks if not months and there was nothing he could have done about it.
And Yamashita was a blowhard, more importantly, the exact quote in his memoirs was that the British could had held off his initial attack with the men he despatched, which would mean it would take him weeks or months to build up supplies for ANOTHER attack.
His difficulties were entirely self inflicted, from the fact that he failed to build up and gather supplies, the return of one Japanese division, the failure to shift IJA aircraft up fast enough to exploit captured landing fields which decreased his airpower.......

Oops, sorry, that's ignoring the fact that the Japanese resources were on a shoestring and these difficulties, along with his determination to capture Singapore as a gift for the Emperor for his anniversary determined the risky nature of the attack. Of course, the problem is, while you discount the material difficulties of the Japanese which would had prevented another, later attack and which did hinder the assault on Singapore, you fail to extend that courtesy to the British who were operating under similar material problems.
But the British commanders on the ground lost their nerve. They were inexcusably - arguably criminally - incompetent. That they were not sacked by Churchill is a valid argument against Churchill, but still does not excuse Percival or his other generals. If they wanted to check out, they should have done it themselves and not taken the whole garrison with them.
I disagree. The British garrison was limited in ammunition, the city centre was crammed with refugees and firefighting was gone. The garrision at that point in time was already scattered and morale/discipline was gone. Perceival and other responsible commanders surrended, citing the futility of further fighting and the damage it would had done to civilian refugees. Left unspoken was the fear of further Japanese brutality, already seen in Alexender hospital.

Furthermore, pre-war estimates was that the Malayan garrison would have to hold out for 70 to 90 days before the fleet arrived to secure naval superiority. The defences of Malaya was not significantly improved to meet her new needs. Given the increased Japanese capabilities, its indeed remarkable that despite the odds, the Malayan forces DID manage to hold out for 70 days, the pre-war estimate of how long they could hold out without relief. They were short infantry battalions, short on aircraft, had insufficient artillery even to meet a less limited Japanese threat. The expected danger of Japan occuyping the Kra isthmus, being able to secure an advanced base in Indo-China and etc saw the evolvement of the Malayan appreciation, which demanded 556 aircraft, preferably 700 for defence, an additional 10 battalions for basic security, more artillery and anti-tank guns. Dill lobbied for armoured cars and tanks, and Perceival survey was that they would require 2 tank battalions to meet the expected Japanese tanks.
They had none of this. They did receive 6 additional battalions, being short by only 3 battalions, but they were short of 400 odd aircraft. And the RAF were the MAIN defenders of Malaya. The most important part of the British shield was not filled, and yet, I repeat, they MET the expected period of relief of 70 days before they surrended.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Simon_Jester wrote: As I understand it, and keeping in mind what PainRack said, the British fought competently enough during the retreat down the peninsula- given that they were dealing with gross air and naval inferiority, they were pretty much stuck with a losing battle.

Once they reached Singapore, the morale of the troops was poor, supplies limited, and (again) all hope of reinforcement gone. At this point, Percival was confronted with a choice- try and rally the troops to defend the island inch by inch, delaying and damaging the Japanese force as long as possible, or give up knowing that the battle could not be won.

In Percival's shoes, Yamashita would have taken the first option- again, we know this, because he did exactly that three years later in the Philippines. Churchill- who knows? Percival essentially chose the latter. Maybe his troops' morale had collapsed to the point where he couldn't have rallied them, but my impression is that he didn't really try. In that, I agree with you.
Both. At this point in time, Perceival authority amongst the troops was gone, as both Bennet and Heath was set against him. Bennet himself didn't have much authority left anyway, as the Australians were deserting and discipline gone. Heath positiono was worse, as the new influx of Indian recruits had by now lost the majority of British officers and a good portion of the cadre of sargaents, making them useless in battle and vulnerable to the propaganda of the INA.

However, the cited reason for not fighting was that due to the futility of resisting, it was better to surrender now then to inflict further damage and losses amongst the civilian refugees cramped into Singapore town.

If the British had continued the battle, they still wouldn't have managed to inflict any measurable harm to the Japanese, they would had delayed the occupation by days at most as the Japanese searched the town to kill any last defenders, and the resulting civilian losses would had been horrific.
One must remember that the loss of the water reservoirs was reflected in the official critique was the loss of being to conduct any firefighting whatsoever. This even as civil services had collapsed, mains had leaked and etc.
There was also no civil order left in Singapore, as services had shut down.

The last conference given by Perceival had this plan. Either the British counter-attacked, capturing the water reservoirs and food depot/military supply depot, driving Japanese artillery off the heights, or we surrender. The commanders replied that such a counter-attack wasn't feasible. Meanwhile, the city was cramped, food was running out, they had no aircraft, the last ten hurricanes had withdrawn and Kallang airfield was no longer usuable, there was no ammunition for the guns/anti-aircraft, the Empress destruction by Japanese aircraft meant that while there was more manpower, there was actually even lesser supplies......
There's another factor, too- if there's any resistance still going on, changing commanders while the troops are in the process of being defeated isn't necessarily going to improve matters. At some point it's like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic- or perhaps like replacing Custer fifteen minutes before the Sioux attack at Little Bighorn won't change the outcome.

This factor makes the high command understandably reluctant to replace field commanders in the middle of a battle.
Actually, Churchill already did that. People seem to forget that the true commander of Far East defences was Brooke Popham. Understandbly, since he was slighted to be removed just as the Malayan campaign got underway, and the resulting defeat accelerated his removal from office. Wavell inherited his position... and then promptly stood up to assume defending the entire ABDA command, which included defending the whole of Indonesia along with Singapore in conjunction with the Americans.

Perceival was GOC Malaya, but suborned under Far East Command.
Because again, this was originally about Pearl Harbor. Where I suspect that after the attack, FDR and company would be rather surprised to learn that Short's planes had been bunched off and unable to take off, or that his "this despatch is to be considered a war warning" message hadn't gotten Kimmel to put his fleet at a higher level of readiness. To me, that's just an observation about the difference in knowledge between the capital and the field command, and the capital's tendency to fill in what they don't know about field conditions with an excessively optimistic picture.

When things go badly on the front, there will always be a certain amount of "holy shit what do you mean you didn't do X?" coming from the capital. This will usually be partly sincere- honest belief that a stronger defense was possible, when it wasn't- and partly ass-covering, with people in the capital trying to explain why they were not responsible for the defeat.
To be honest, given the timeframe involved, was it actually reasonable that Pearl Harbour could had better results than historically happen?
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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PainRack wrote:To be honest, given the timeframe involved, was it actually reasonable that Pearl Harbour could had better results than historically happen?
Certainly plausible, I would think- but it would have required a higher state of readiness to meet an air attack. Which I honestly don't think the people on the spot can be faulted for not having anticipated, not in any real intensity.

Things like, oh... listening to the radar operators more carefully, having fighters ready to take off and defend the base instead of being bunched up to deter sabotage, having torpedo nets rigged if possible (this may not have been practical), just... generally a higher state of alertness and preparation to spring to the defense of the base in the event of an attack.

It could have been done. There's no single obvious thing that we can say "yes, this man was a flaming incompetent for not ordering this done," but had the commanding officers on Oahu really wanted to be prepared for the attack, the attack might have done considerably less damage and (perhaps more importantly, under the circumstances) cost the Japanese more.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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The US Army had something like forty fully equipped anti aircraft batteries around the harbor area, not a single one of which had ready ammunition, nor did any army AA weapon heavier then a machine gun get ammunition before the attack was over. Just changing that bit of stupidity likely could have doubled Japanese losses out of hand and significantly reduced the effectiveness of the second wave, maybe the first wave too as it did not all strike in one sudden go.

Torpedo nets were ruled out because they would made a rapid sortie by the entire fleet impossible as well as impeding normal base operations, and this was fairly justifiable. The USN was aware of the Taranto attack, and also that the Italians had all three sunken or damaged battleships all ringed by nets and it had made no difference against British torpedoes striking under the keel. The USN expected to have at least two to four hours of warning in which case a mass sortie would be feasible. Bad call, but it had reasons behind it. IIRC the anti torpedo net design the USN had at the time was very heavy and difficult to deploy, a vastly improved net was introduced in 1942 or 43. This is one of those things that the US was really screwed over on, having penny pinched our military to death until 1940 it simply had not yet been able to invent and deploy good auxiliary equipment like this.

Its worth considering also that for all the damage caused by the attack, that somewhere around 60-70% of Japanese torpedoes still missed completely stationary almost overlapping targets. Those breakaway fins did make it possible to drop a torpedo into the shallow water, but its clear that many of the torpedoes still hit the bottom and broke up or were destroyed by the explosions of the first hits. Likewise the Japanese level bombers, a significant portion of the raid, sank Arizona by luck, but otherwise accomplished almost nothing because they had to pattern bomb by formation rather then individually aiming owing to the cramped airspace above battleship row.

The best defense for the harbor would have been to smoke the entire place, and the radar warning time would have been sufficient to make this possible, but the relevant smoke generating equipment was only just being invented and produced by the US Army chemical corps. Once more, penny pinching at work. Smoke pots did exist that might have done the trick, but it would have taken a couple hundred of them and each one has to have to lid taken off and igniter pulled by hand.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by PainRack »

Sea Skimmer wrote:The US Army had something like forty fully equipped anti aircraft batteries around the harbor area, not a single one of which had ready ammunition, nor did any army AA weapon heavier then a machine gun get ammunition before the attack was over. Just changing that bit of stupidity likely could have doubled Japanese losses out of hand and significantly reduced the effectiveness of the second wave, maybe the first wave too as it did not all strike in one sudden go.

Torpedo nets were ruled out because they would made a rapid sortie by the entire fleet impossible as well as impeding normal base operations, and this was fairly justifiable. The USN was aware of the Taranto attack, and also that the Italians had all three sunken or damaged battleships all ringed by nets and it had made no difference against British torpedoes striking under the keel. The USN expected to have at least two to four hours of warning in which case a mass sortie would be feasible. Bad call, but it had reasons behind it. IIRC the anti torpedo net design the USN had at the time was very heavy and difficult to deploy, a vastly improved net was introduced in 1942 or 43. This is one of those things that the US was really screwed over on, having penny pinched our military to death until 1940 it simply had not yet been able to invent and deploy good auxiliary equipment like this.

Its worth considering also that for all the damage caused by the attack, that somewhere around 60-70% of Japanese torpedoes still missed completely stationary almost overlapping targets. Those breakaway fins did make it possible to drop a torpedo into the shallow water, but its clear that many of the torpedoes still hit the bottom and broke up or were destroyed by the explosions of the first hits. Likewise the Japanese level bombers, a significant portion of the raid, sank Arizona by luck, but otherwise accomplished almost nothing because they had to pattern bomb by formation rather then individually aiming owing to the cramped airspace above battleship row.

The best defense for the harbor would have been to smoke the entire place, and the radar warning time would have been sufficient to make this possible, but the relevant smoke generating equipment was only just being invented and produced by the US Army chemical corps. Once more, penny pinching at work. Smoke pots did exist that might have done the trick, but it would have taken a couple hundred of them and each one has to have to lid taken off and igniter pulled by hand.
Just out of curiousity, what do you think of the argument that the Japanese held off another airstrike due to increasing American resistance?
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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PainRack wrote:Just out of curiousity, what do you think of the argument that the Japanese held off another airstrike due to increasing American resistance?
They held off sending in the third wave because Enterprise, Yorktown and Hornet were not present in the harbor during the attack. The Admiral in charge of the Japanese carriers felt that they'd already done enough damage and felt the risk of being found and attacked while the final attack wave was gone was too much of a risk. If I remember right they actually felt the losses were less then expected.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by PeZook »

American resistance was also getting more organized and effective, and the Japanese were running out of daylight - a third wave would run the risk of having to do night landings.

Then there was their fuel situation, the unknown position of American carriers, etc.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by Sea Skimmer »

PainRack wrote: Just out of curiousity, what do you think of the argument that the Japanese held off another airstrike due to increasing American resistance?
It was almost certainly a factor. Japan only had 29 planes shot down, but I believe it was at least 70 planes damaged and something like half of those had to be written off and almost none could be fixed promptly, so in fact about a quarter of Japanese air strength was out of the fight. That’s pretty damn serious already when three American aircraft carriers are at completely unknown locations somewhere in the Pacific. The Japanese pilots did feel that the American AA response was quicker then expected.

A bigger factor was the fact that Japan launched the operation fully expecting to loose two fleet carriers, and having accomplished its main goals spectacularly and lost nothing but aircraft it was crazy to wait around and push the luck. The fleet could only make the operation by stacking fuel drums on the decks of destroyers and even two of the carriers and yet still faced the prospect of imminent engagement by the American carriers, land based aircraft and submarines.

Nagumo overwhelmingly made the right call to pull away, and nothing the limited bombing payload of his planes could have killed in a third or even with a forth wave would have made any additional strategic difference to the war. Blow up the oil tanks… and the US will rebuild them in six months and change nothing. An intact fleet of aircraft carriers was the only ace Japan had in the entire war and its only mobile striking force at the time.

Some people just seem to have a really hard time grasping this issue and cite opinions Japanese pilots, the last people anyone should expect a rational assessment of the situation from, as proof that a third strike should have been launched. Unless one thinks a third wave would win the war it doesn't make any good sense.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by Zinegata »

Even if the Japanese had managed to destroy all of the Pacific fleet carriers during the Pearl Harbor raid without losing additional aircraft, they would have been doomed to lose the war regardless.

The US outbuilt the Japanese fleet by a factor of 11 to 2 during the war. As this article succintly notes:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

The Japanese navy was going to be massively outnumbered by 1943 due to massive American war production, regardless of the early war losses.

It's possible that with a few extra months, the Japanese would have been able to establish a somewhat stronger defensive perimeter. But further conquests are unlikely as the Japanese were already strained almost to the breaking point just holding what they already took.

Besides which, it's all going to be moot by August 1945 anyway. Nothing Japan can do will stop the American atomic bomb program. Even if the American forces are still stuck in the Philippines by this time - instead of securing Okinawa - the Allies have enough air superiority to ensure than an atom bomb is delivered to the Home Islands that would put an end to any further resistance.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by Simon_Jester »

The question of a third wave at Pearl Harbor boils down to "could the Japanese, at an acceptably low price, done additional damage?" That's not the same as "this could have decided the war in Japan's favor."
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by Zinegata »

Yes, but my point is to emphasize that it's moot whether or not Japan could have done better. They knew they were going to lose in the long run if it became an industrial production contest.

Sea Skimmer already covered how the Japanese could have done much, much worse - and such losses would have been disastrous for the Japanese position.

Given these considerations, not launching a third raid was sound.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

Post by U-95 »

Zinegata wrote:Even if the Japanese had managed to destroy all of the Pacific fleet carriers during the Pearl Harbor raid without losing additional aircraft, they would have been doomed to lose the war regardless.

The US outbuilt the Japanese fleet by a factor of 11 to 2 during the war. As this article succintly notes:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

The Japanese navy was going to be massively outnumbered by 1943 due to massive American war production, regardless of the early war losses.

It's possible that with a few extra months, the Japanese would have been able to establish a somewhat stronger defensive perimeter. But further conquests are unlikely as the Japanese were already strained almost to the breaking point just holding what they already took.

Besides which, it's all going to be moot by August 1945 anyway. Nothing Japan can do will stop the American atomic bomb program. Even if the American forces are still stuck in the Philippines by this time - instead of securing Okinawa - the Allies have enough air superiority to ensure than an atom bomb is delivered to the Home Islands that would put an end to any further resistance.
Correct. Japan was not prepared for a long war; they hoped that they'd defeat the US fast and with the Combined Fleet ruling the Pacific, they'd be able to establish their terms of peace.
Nothing of invade the US, at least they alone -other thing are those hypothetical "what ifs", were Japan and Germany attack together the US-; I think even Admiral Yamamoto recognized they didn't have manpower and resources to do that; just to crush the US fleet in the Pacific, so they could establish their Co-Prosperity Sphere. Their strategies -in particular naval ones- turned about that, so that's why replaced with quality what they lacked in quantity (excellent pilots, fast warships armed with powerful torpedoes (the Long Lances), submarines using also very good torpedoes (the Type 95), and of course the Yamatos-.
Even assuming Yamamoto had defeated the US carriers in Midway, it would be just matter of time the US war machinery started to work heavily and the balance started to change in their favor. Same if the attack on Pearl Harbor had been more destructive and had affected more facilities (the ones for submarines, etc) and/or the US carriers had been caught then; the war would had lasted some more years, but they'd lost yes or yes.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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You know, that's the problem with strategies that target the enemy will to fight as a substitute for classic tools of warfare: you are gambling on fundamentally unpredictable political forces. Especially problematic is when your culture is vastly different from the guy you are trying to force into peace, since you probably don't understand it very well.

If you decide to break the enemy's will to fight while still having superiority or at least parity of arms, you can reasonably count that if the plan fails, you will be able to get peace, perhaps even accomplish some goals by fighting the enemy to a standstill ; If you are vastly weaker than the guy you are trying to fight, then if he doesn't fold after your initial strike, then...you're pretty much fucked.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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That's it. Even Yamamoto said that he could run wildly for six months, after them he'd have no confidence for the next years. Unfortunately for Japan, he was right; after Midway things were worser and worser for them, to the point they had to resort to kamikazes.

The worst part for the Axis was they were binded together by pacts. Japan attacked the US, so they declared the war to the three powers of it, and correspondingly both German and Italy declared war on the US. In the meantime, Hitler had the wrong idea of betraying Stalin, and we know how ended everything.

However, it's interesting to examine what would happen if the Axis were just Germany and Italy. The US would wipe out Japan as they did, and perhaps they'd do nothing in the conflict between Hitler+Mussolini and Stalin (and Churchill). If the USSR defeated Germany -that would probably before be able to defeat and conquer Great Britain with the blockade done with their submarines-, unless the US acted, probably all Europe would be communist.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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The chances of the US not intervening in Europe - even without Hitler's insane DoW - were already pretty slim by 1942. You had American warships actively engaging in combat operations against German U-boats. There was some public support for fighting Nazi Germany. Heck, the US had already started a partial mobilization in 1941 - well before Pearl Harbor - in preparation for fighting Germany, not Japan. Hence the "Germany First" policy when war broke out.

The only thing that could have possibly shaken American morale (and hence end their involvement in Europe) was a comprehensive and devastating military defeat of some sort - perhaps if Operation Overlord failed completely and all of the invasion divisions were destroyed. But the American forces frankly never suffered such a devastating reverse.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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The submarine blockade was also almost totally ineffective at actually starving Britain. Germany could perhaps have a slim hope of negotiating a peace, but outright conquest is out of the question.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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U-95 wrote:That's it. Even Yamamoto said that he could run wildly for six months, after them he'd have no confidence for the next years. Unfortunately for Japan, he was right; after Midway things were worser and worser for them, to the point they had to resort to kamikazes.

The worst part for the Axis was they were binded together by pacts. Japan attacked the US, so they declared the war to the three powers of it, and correspondingly both German and Italy declared war on the US. In the meantime, Hitler had the wrong idea of betraying Stalin, and we know how ended everything.

However, it's interesting to examine what would happen if the Axis were just Germany and Italy. The US would wipe out Japan as they did, and perhaps they'd do nothing in the conflict between Hitler+Mussolini and Stalin (and Churchill). If the USSR defeated Germany -that would probably before be able to defeat and conquer Great Britain with the blockade done with their submarines-, unless the US acted, probably all Europe would be communist.
The German attack on the USSR was not an entirely stupid idea, the simple existence of the Red Army (even if they are in a de facto peace) meant that large German formations have to be kept in a defensive position in the German-Soviet border (thus was a drain on the resources) and even than there was no guarantee that this peace would hold in 1944. So trying to eliminate this threat when the Western front was quiet (practically non-existent) and Germany could concentrate the most amount of resources had some strategical merits. And they might achieved their goal anyway, since there were periods when will the Soviet military and political leadership approached breaking point. That did not happened so Germany lost the war.
But this strategy, if successful, allowed victory on the east, and a practically impenetrable Atlantic Wall (no more manpower and resource shortage) thus going back to the Phoney War. And even with the historical outcome by the time of the Allied landings in Europe the Wehrmacht was still deep in Soviet land, thus the situation was still better than it could have been with a US-British landing, plus a Soviet attack from the 1940 border.

Now on the Japanese attack on PH, that's another story, their strategic situation was much worse and knocking out the US offered no improvement over it (they were bogged down in China simply because they lacked the manpower to properly occupy it) were massively outnumbered and outgunned (much more than the Germans, whom were able to offer a decent fight when the war turned into a meat grinder) also the industrial/military and political centrum of their enemy was out of reach (Germany had a realistic chance to capture Moscow, which could have a symbolic effect as well as denying the Russians their most important transport and communication hub) so their only chance was to demoralize their enemy to the point when they give up fighting even though they hold the material advantage. In that sense the PH strike was a colossal failure, since it acted as a rallying point and ensured that the US moral will not break. And if moral holds, there is no way to compensate a 10:1 material advantage with whatever leadership, courage and personal quality (even if the Japanese would have that, which is arguable at minimum).
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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The whole Third Wave thing made no sense from a strategy standpoint really. What was Japan going to gain short term from neutralizing a resource like oil storage? People don't realize that the ultra-Mahanian thinking of the IJN was to put the USN out of action for the immediate time period. Not beat it through long term naval campaigns involving conquering the Pacific and then maybe San Francisco! That kind of thing was beyond Japan's ability and played no part whatsoever in the design of their Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.

And I get a kick out U-Boats killing Britain what if. The Kaiserliche Marine couldn't do that back in 1916 when the fleet consisted of 40 dreadnoughts and the U-Boats were able to get away with much more. The Kriegsmarine never held a candle to the Kaiser's Navy. Notice how reports of the U-Boats "starving" Britain always lack details or specifics as to just how bad things are. Compare this to the very real effects of the British blockade on Germany during World War 1 which caused a fucking civil war.
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Re: FDR knew about Pearl Harbor

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Yes, what you say about Hitler declaring war to Stalin makes sense. Sooner of later, that peace would break up (in Germany bolshevists weren't precissely liked very much and I guess in the USSR the nazis the same), and there'd be war between both countries. Those divisions could not be there forever, and when they did so Mother Russia sent against them the Red Army supported by the General Winter,

Weren't the german submarines so effective?. I believed that -particularly during the first stages of the war (the first "Happy Time")-, with ASW measures still not so developed as they'd be years later and a relative lack of escorts they were able to take a serious toll on british shipping (besides the sucesses against largue warships as the Barham, the Royal Oak, the Ark Royal, and some others) and when the US with their war machine and improved ASW measures taken from the british, the balance was turned against the Kriegsmarine.One sees the what happened to convoys as the SC-7 -20 ships sank out of 35 (+ 5 escorts)- and thinks Great Britain had a bad time them.

On Japan, yes. And what made things worse for them was how that great advantage eroded so fast that they were unable to replace the quality of what they had with quantity (the battle of the Philippine Sea and the fate of so many japanese fighters then are a great proof of that), so they had to resort to so desperate measures as all type of kamikazes, to the point of using that as basis to defend their home islands if the US decided to invade them.
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