Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

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Dave
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Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Dave »

Yes, that Kessler. Acadmic link to paper (requires email address to download 15 MB pdf)
AFP wrote: Space junk at dangerous 'tipping point': study
(AFP) – 5 hours ago
WASHINGTON — Clouds of space junk orbiting the Earth have reached a dangerous "tipping point", threatening to smash satellites and endanger astronauts, US scientists warned in a study this week.
"The current space environment is growing increasingly hazardous to spacecraft and astronauts," said Donald Kessler, chair of the committee that wrote the report and retired head of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office.
"NASA needs to determine the best path forward for tackling the multifaceted problems caused by meteoroids and orbital debris that put human and robotic space operations at risk."
NASA is currently tracking over 22,000 pieces of debris and estimates there are millions more that are too small to track.
Among those are at least 500,000 particles of up to 10 centimeters (four inches) in diameter, which can still cause damage when traveling at such high speeds.
Computer models have shown that the "debris has reached a 'tipping point,' with enough currently in orbit to continually collide and create even more debris, raising the risk of spacecraft failures," the National Research Council said in a statement Thursday.
Efforts to limit the amount of space debris suffered a major setback in 2007 when China tested its anti-satellite missiles on a weather satellite which was blown to pieces.
More debris was formed two years later when two satellites accidentally collided in orbit.
Cleaning up the spent rockets and abandoned equipment is not simply costly -- it is also complicated by the fact that the United States is prohibited by international law from collecting objects belonging to other nations.
"The Cold War is over, but the acute sensitivity regarding satellite technology remains," explained committee vice chair George Gleghorn, former vice president and chief engineer for the TRW Space and Technology Group.
The 160-page report recommends that NASA engages the State Department's help in sorting out the "economic, technological, political, and legal considerations."
(Emphasis mine.)


Sounds like Kessler syndrome is becoming a reality for Earth.

Slate has another passable write up in the same vein, and they say another 500KB paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research says you need to remove 5 objects a year starting in 2020 to control it. (10 if global warming causes the outer atmosphere to contract and reduces low orbit drag.)
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Ryan Thunder »

And humanity continues to merrily fuck itself over in the name of myopic convenience.

Oh, fuck it all. :evil:
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Andrew_Fireborn »

Hmm... curious about that last bit you commented on.

So, one of the projected effects of global warming is a potential atmospheric contraction? Seems counter intuitive.
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Stark
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Stark »

Dude, 'things smash other things into smaller things' is not 'self-sustaining'. They're saying that as the collisions occur, they will tend to increase the risk of further collisions by increasing the number of objects.
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Simon_Jester »

Um, who and what are you responding to, Stark?
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by JointStrikeFighter »

Laser brooms that could clean this up if it became a serious problem are almost ready anyway
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Winston Blake »

Stark wrote:Maybe - just maybe - the OP with the words 'self-sustaining' in it? Nobody else has used this phrase.
The OP appears to have assumed that everyone here knows about the Kessler Syndrome, shown by his saying 'Yes, THAT Kessler'. I'm guessing you haven't come across it before.
The Kessler syndrome (also called the Kessler effect, collisional cascading or ablation cascade), proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, is a scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade – each collision generating debris which increases the likelihood of further collisions. One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space exploration, and even the use of satellites, unfeasible for many generations.

[...]

The Kessler Syndrome is especially insidious because of the "domino effect" and "feedback runaway". Any impact between two objects of sizable mass spalls off shrapnel debris from the force of collision. Each piece of shrapnel now has the potential to cause further damage, creating even more space debris. With a large enough collision or explosion (such as one between a space station and a defunct satellite, or the result of hostile actions in space), the amount of cascading debris could be enough to render low Earth orbit essentially impassable.[4][5]
So whether you want to say 'self-sustaining', 'cascading', 'runaway', 'domino effect', or 'metastable transition', the basic idea is the same. 'Many big things whizzing around in orbit' is a metastable state. The idea is that, if pushed far enough, the system will shift into a different equilibrium - one of 'many, many small things whizzing around in orbit'. This has the side effect of supposedly destroying all current satellites and making it impossible for humanity to leave Earth. That is, until space is cleaned up somehow, at enormous cost.

So the main idea has been to ensure that such a transition does not occur, by limiting addition of new space debris and trying to deorbit existing debris. It's easier to use a laser to bring down debris while it's still in one big piece, rather than in the form of billions of sand or dust-sized particles spread out over billions of cubic kilometres.
Link wrote:Space may need a clean up

Space junk has made such a mess of the Earth's orbit that it may soon need cleaning up, Nasa's former senior scientist has warned.

Donald Kessler said that might mean scooping up the debris with nets, magnets or giant umbrellas.

There are 22,000 objects in orbit that are big enough for officials on the ground to track - and countless smaller ones that could damage spaceships and satellites.

The International Space Station has even had to move out of the way of debris from time to time.

'We've lost control of the environment,' said Mr Kessler, who produced a report for the National Academy Of Sciences.

Since the space age began 54 years ago, civilisation has littered the area just above Earth's atmosphere.

The debris includes leftover boosters and other parts that come off during launches, as well as old satellites.

When scientists first noticed this could be a problem, they came up with agreements to limit new space junk - and those plans had been working.

The agreements are intended to make sure that what is now sent into orbit eventually falls back to Earth and burns up.

But Mr Kessler's report said two events in the past four years meant everything had now changed.

He said a Chinese anti-satellite weapon test in 2007 and the crash of two satellites in 2009 had put a large amount of new junk in space.

The widely criticised Chinese test used a missile to smash an old weather satellite into 150,000 pieces of debris.

Some 3,118 pieces of those pieces are large enough to be tracked by radar on the ground.

'Those two single events doubled the amount of fragments in Earth orbit and completely wiped out what we had done in the last 25 years,' Mr Kessler complained.


The study referred to a report by the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency which mentions harpoons and nets as ways of sweeping up debris.

The report also referred to magnets and a giant dish or umbrella-shaped device.

Nasa officials said they were examining the study.
When scientists first noticed this could be a problem, they came up with agreements to limit new space junk - and those plans had been working. [...]

But Mr Kessler's report said two events in the past four years meant everything had now changed. [...]

'Those two single events doubled the amount of fragments in Earth orbit and completely wiped out what we had done in the last 25 years,' Mr Kessler complained.
It's a good thing the world's major economies have the surplus strength needed to fund space megaprojects, and that the biggest countries in the world are highly co-operative and have the political will and organisation needed to solve the big problems, well before there is an obvious, pressing need. The general public is very interested in space science, and very familiar with this problem and its effects, so I'm sure we'll have thousands of gigantic robotic magno-laser-umbrella-dish-net space stations up and running in no time.
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Dalton »

Ryan Thunder wrote:And humanity continues to merrily fuck itself over in the name of myopic convenience.

Oh, fuck it all. :evil:
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Steel »

Stark wrote:Dude, 'things smash other things into smaller things' is not 'self-sustaining'. They're saying that as the collisions occur, they will tend to increase the risk of further collisions by increasing the number of objects.
Actually, it is entirely possible for the number of particles to become self sustaining beyond a certain number. Given that the basic situation is you're hit you're dead, the crucial thing is the number of particles, not their size.

If we assume that a collision between two pieces of space junk will on average result in there being some number (greater than 2) pieces of space junk afterwards, and that each bit of space junk falls out of the sky and burns up randomly over time, the the dynamics for the number of bits of junk will go as:

rate of creation of new junk due to collision of existing junk - rate of loss of existing junk

or mathematically:

dN/dt = a*N2 - b*N

and so for a number of particles greater than N = b/a the particle number will increase over time, even if the total mass of space junk is shrinking.

Of course the individual particles are getting smaller, but that isn't particularly helpful if one the size of a grain of sand can still kill you. Of course the model above is imperfect as it doesn't explicitly account for the fact that things will get smaller as they collide more, so they'll eventually become uninteresting.
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Rabid »

Quick question : Couldn't we just partially get around the problem by perfecting the shielding of satellites and space stations ? I know the ISS can already withstand impacting debris up to ~1cm in size, so with advances in material sciences and aerospace engineering it shouldn't be more difficult to do so than creating space-born anti-debris laser-brooms, no ?

I mean, whatever happen, one day space is going to get militarized (anti-satellite missiles, etc...), and the military will want to be able to murder enemy satellites while having a reasonable assurance that it will not hinder the efficiency of their own space assets (or even significantly shorten their lifespan). From there, it follow that the civil sector will take action to shield-up their own space assets to avoid becoming collateral-damage in any future space war, no ? After all, a satellite is already so costly to launch and maintain, that even a 100% increase in cost wouldn't make so much difference in the long term, I believe.


My point is : I see how this "Kessler Effect" could become a problem, but I don't think it will be that much of an hindrance in the long term. The engineers will find solutions whatever happen, if only because we have become so reliant on space nowadays, in every aspects of our lives, that the political and financial interests will never allow space to become unusable.
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Re: Space debris becoming self-sustaining - Kessler

Post by Nephtys »

There's no such thing as 'perfecting' shielding. What the ISS uses is an external layer of thin spaced plating, with (IIRC) half a meter of spacing before the actual hull. All that does is cause high-velocity low mass projectiles to damage the whipple shield instead of the actual hull, but it would do nothing against a higher mass object. Also, it presents a bulk issue and many aspects of a space station or satellite cannot be covered as such. It's not simply a matter of 'material science harder'.

Also the Kessler effect is unlikely to render space unusable, but it's very likely to render space much more costly. Debris collision can be a cause of technical failure which would increase cost, as well as having a somewhat higher risk for manned flights. The Space Shuttle's had multiple rather dramatic debris impacts even in it's 100-odd flights, two of which nearly cracked the front windshield glass. Which as a result, forced them to fly 'backwards' so the engine module soaked up hits instead.
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