Israel/Turkish Tensions Rise over Gaza and Cyprus

[MKSheppard]

Link

Turkish warships will escort aid vessels to Gaza: Erdogan
September 8, 2011, 1:06 p.m.

CAIRO (Reuters) - Turkey said on Thursday it would escort aid ships to Gaza and would not allow a repetition of last year's Israeli raid that killed nine Turks, setting the stage for a potential naval confrontation with its former ally.

Raising the stakes in Turkey's row with Israel over its refusal to apologize for the killings, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Al Jazeera television that Turkey had taken steps to stop Israel from unilaterally exploiting natural resources in the Mediterranean.

"Turkish warships, in the first place, are authorized to protect our ships that carry humanitarian aid to Gaza," Erdogan said in the interview, broadcast by Al Jazeera with an Arabic translation.

"From now on, we will not let these ships to be attacked by Israel, as what happened with the Freedom Flotilla," Erdogan said.

Referring to Erdogan's comments, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said: "This is a statement well-worth not commenting on."

Relations between Turkey and Israel, two close U.S. allies in the region, have soured since Israeli forces boarded the Gaza-bound Mavi Marmara aid ship in May 2010.

Ankara downgraded ties and vowed to boost naval patrols in the eastern Mediterranean in the escalating row. Israel says it acted legally against ships that tried to breach its blockade on the Palestinian enclave which is ruled by the Islamist Hamas group.

Israel has said it will enforce the blockade, which it says is needed to prevent arms smuggling to Hamas.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said earlier on Thursday that Israel and Turkey will eventually mend fences rather than become foes, describing their unprecedented dispute over Gaza as "spilled milk."

Noting that an inquiry commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had vindicated the blockade, Barak predicted that wider Middle East upheaval would help bring Israel back together with its Muslim ex-ally.

"Ultimately this wave will pass. We recognize reality. They recognize reality," Barak told Israel Radio. "We are the two countries that are most important to the West in the region ... I am certain that we can overcome these (disagreements)."

But Erdogan appeared to raise the heat, saying NATO member Turkey has taken steps to patrol the Mediterranean, and vowed to stop the Jewish state from exploiting natural resources in the area.

"You know that Israel has begun to declare that it has the right to act in exclusive economic areas in the Mediterranean," Erdogan said, apparently in reference to Israeli plans to exploit offshore gas reserves found in areas that are also claimed by Lebanon.

"You will see that it will not be the owner of this right, because Turkey, as a guarantor of the Turkish republic of north Cyprus, has taken steps in the area, and it will be decisive and holding fast to the right to monitor international waters in the east Mediterranean," he said.

Turkey says oil deals granted by the Greek Cypriot government, which represents the island in the European Union, are illegal as the borders of Cyprus remain undetermined while Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots pursue reunification talks.

Turkey's plan to flex its naval muscles may fuel Western unease about Turkey's reliability as a NATO partner and its penchant for actions designed to court popularity in the Muslim world.

Asked whether Israel might yet say sorry for the seizure of the Turkish vessel, Barak said: "Look, it's spilled milk. It's not important right now."

In addition to an apology, NATO-member Turkey has demanded that Israel end the Gaza blockade. Israel says the closure is needed to keep arms from reaching Palestinian guerrillas by sea.

"A normalisation or improvement in Turkey-Israel relationships shouldn't be expected unless they apologize, pay a compensation and lift an embargo on Gaza," Erdogan said on Thursday.

(Reporting by Omar Fahmy; Aditional reporting Dan Williams and Maayan Lubell in Jerusalem and Ibon Villelabeitia in Ankara; Writing by Sami Aboudi; Editing by Karolina Tagaris)

Link

Energy Resources
Cyprus, Israel move closer on East Med gas
Published: Aug. 26, 2011 at 2:06 PM

NICOSIA, Cyprus, Aug. 26 (UPI) -- The governments of Cyprus and Israel, which both have seemingly intractable problems with Turkey, are moving closer together over the increasingly thorny issue of vast natural gas fields under the eastern Mediterranean.

The energy dispute, which already has Israel and neighboring Lebanon threatening each other, has spurred a major geopolitical realignment in the region where oil and natural gas have long been in short supply and heightened tensions.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated in 2010 that more than 122 trillion cubic feet of gas and around 4 billion barrels of oil lie under the continental shelf that runs south from Syria and Lebanon before curving westward to Egypt.

So it's no surprise that in such a volatile region the competition over such potentially vast energy reserves just keeps growing, fueled by political quarrels that have beset the region for decades, if not centuries.

Israel, still at war with its Arab neighbors, has been at odds with Turkey, its onetime strategic ally which now solidly supports the Palestinians.

The split occurred May 31, 2010, when Israeli forces killed nine Turks while intercepting a Turkish-organized aid flotilla heading for the Israeli-blockaded Gaza Strip.

Cyprus has historically been a point of conflict between ancient enemies Greece and Turkey. The island has been divided since Turkey invaded in 1974 and seized the northern sector. The Turkish-Cypriot republic it declared is recognized only by Ankara. The government of the Greek Cypriot south in Nicosia is recognized internationally.

The emerging Cyprus-Israel relationship took a significant step forward this week when Cyprus' new foreign minister, Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, visited Israel and had two days of talks on the gas issue.

Cyprus recently signed a zoning agreement on maritime exploration with Israel and is about to launch deep-water exploration off its southern coast.

Turkey claims the Nicosia government doesn't have the right to unilaterally exploit the island's natural resources.

Ankara's current drive to become a major regional power and regain its Ottoman legacy in the Muslim Middle East has fueled its disputes with Israel and Greece.

The giant gas fields found off northern Israel over the last two years, which are set to transform the Jewish state's economic fortunes, are believed to extend west toward Cyprus.

The island is also pushing to establish a liquefied natural gas plant to collect pipelined gas from Israel and Cypriot waters and handle exports to Europe through Greece, in a multibillion-dollar undertaking.

Greece and the Greek Cypriot sector of Cyprus are both members of the European Union.

Both the United States and Russia have recently issued statement supporting the Greek Cypriot position.

So a new Israel-Cyprus-Greece axis shaping up in the eastern Mediterranean that is likely to intensify the tensions generated by the Arab-Israeli conflict and Greece's ancient grudge match with its old nemesis Turkey.

The two-day visit to Israel by Kozakou-Marcoullis, who only took office three weeks ago, was much more than a routine get-together. She headed for Israel as soon as she's made her customary first call on Athens.

"Quite obviously, Nicosia and Athens … put their heads together and assessed that Israeli regional policies are on a remake," observed Indian analyst M.K. Bhadrakumar, a former career diplomat who served in Turkey, Kuwait and the Soviet Union.

"Cyprus and Greece had had indifferent ties with Israel but a compelling commonality of interests is sailing into view. A realignment of regional powers is taking place in the eastern Mediterranean, the leitmotif being the 'containment' of an increasingly assertive Turkey."

This new partnership is likely to be felt as far afield as Iraq, where Israeli support for separatist Kurdish guerrillas in the north against Turkey could escalate.

A statement issued by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's officer after Kozakou-Marcoullis' visit underscored that Israel had a convergence of interests with Cyprus over Ankara's perceived belligerence.

It noted that Netanyahu and Kozakou-Marcoullis had discussed "the possible expansion of energy cooperation given that both countries have been blessed with natural gas reserves in their maritime economic zones."

On Thursday, as Kozakou-Marcoullis returned to Nicosia, Cypriot Trade Minister Praxoula Antoniadou declared that exploratory drilling of Cypriot waters by Nobel Energy of Houston, the company that struck pay dirt off Israel, would begin shortly.

That's certain to infuriate Ankara.

[Kane Starkiller]

Link

By ADAM ENTOUS

WASHINGTON—Turkey has agreed to station a high-powered U.S. radar on its territory as part of a missile defense system to protect NATO allies from the threat of long-range Iranian rockets.

The deal for Turkey to host the so-called X-Band radar at one of its military bases accelerates deployment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization-backed early warning system.

The deal could also ratchet up tensions between Turkey and Iran, which sees the system as a threat.

Relations between Ankara and Tehran have deteriorated in recent months, particularly over differences over how to respond to Syria's violent crackdown on antiregime demonstrations. Turkey has condemned the violence and appears to be moving increasingly toward breaking with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Iran is supporting Mr. Assad, providing him with equipment and know-how to put down the demonstrations, U.S. officials say.

A senior U.S. defense official said the goal was to have the AN/TPY-2 radar in place in Turkey before the end of this year.

A site has already been identified for the radar at a Turkish military installation. The senior defense official declined to identify its location.

Negotiations with Turkey over hosting the radar started earlier this year and picked up pace in June.

Turkey was concerned that data collected at the radar site could be shared real time with Israel.

U.S. officials told their Turkish counterparts that the U.S. has a "separate and robust" missile defense relationship with Israel, where the U.S. based a high-powered X-Band radar in 2008 to bolster Israel's missile defenses. The system is identical to the radar going to Turkey. That radar can track any Iranian missile aimed at Israel.

But the U.S. made clear that data from any U.S. radars around the world may be fused with other data to maximize the effectiveness of its missile defenses.

The sharing of data with Israel was a sensitive political issue for Turkey. Relations between the two states have frayed over Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip.

The senior defense official attributed Turkey's decision to host the radar to stepped up efforts by Ankara to close ranks with NATO and improve relations with the U.S.

The official playing down the impact of Syria tensions on Turkey's decision. "I don't think recent events played a role. They were heading in this direction," the official said.

Turkey was one of several NATO states in talks to host the advanced X-Band radar as part of the NATO missile shield.

Several Republican senators have voiced reservations with Turkey hosting the radar because of the government's refusal to share the data collected with Israel.

Though the radar systems in Turkey and Israel will operate separately, the senior U.S. defense official made clear the U.S. could integrate the data.

"Any U.S. radars around the world may be fused with other data to maximize the effectiveness of our missile defenses," the official said.

President Barack Obama announced plans in September 2009 to integrate sea- and land-based missile defenses in and around its NATO allies in Europe in a system referred to as the "phased adaptive approach."

The system slated for Turkey to protect NATO states is similar to the AN/TPY-2 radar deployed in Japan to help protect against the North Korean threat.

Under the European system, data from the new radar site in Turkey will be integrated with U.S. Navy cruisers and destroyers equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system in offshore waters.

Built by Raytheon Co, the system locks on to targets in their boost, midcourse and terminal phases. U.S. officials say the AN/TPY-2 system works best when the installations are arrayed along an arc around the perceived threat area.

U.S. intelligence agencies have long warned about Iran's growing missile threat and officials say antiballistic missile systems should cover all of Europe by 2018.

The question Israel should be asking itself before deciding on how to respond to Turkey is which of them is more important to US.

[MKSheppard]

I'd like to point out that:

Firstly, AN/TPY-2 is mobile. Specifically, this is most of the TPY-2:



Secondly, AN/TPY-2 is already in Israel, has been since 2008.

That said; the dynamics of the Mediterranean are going to get...interesting the next year or two.

EDIT: For example; Greek Cyprus is going to have the same company that explored off Israel and found the oil and gas strikes there explore off their end of the Island. That company is Noble Energy, based in...Houston, TX; so we could see Turkish ships intercepting and seizing US citizens for the great crime of working with the Greek Cyprus government.

[cosmicalstorm]

Aha I didn't know about the gas dispute. I was really wondering why they where getting so upset about the Ship to Gaza incident. Thanks for posting.

Is Turkey still in possesion of NATO nuclear weapons?

[Enigma]

Turkey doesn't seem to be making friends here. They're at odds with Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Syria and Iran. I wonder if this is just Turkey's way of posturing. Hoping to make itself look tough for the U.S.

[The Romulan Republic]

Turkey doesn't seem to be making friends here. They're at odds with Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Syria and Iran. I wonder if this is just Turkey's way of posturing. Hoping to make itself look tough for the U.S.

Aren't they a NATO member? Kind of counterbalances any lack of regional allies.

[Narkis]

Greece is also a NATO member. And Israel is, well, Israel. Would you be willing to bet on the US supporting Turkey against Israel?

But really, this is the crossroads between Balkans and Middle East. No one gets along with their neighbours. Just about every "friendship" is an "enemy of my enemy" thing.

[Enigma]

Turkey doesn't seem to be making friends here. They're at odds with Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Syria and Iran. I wonder if this is just Turkey's way of posturing. Hoping to make itself look tough for the U.S.

Aren't they a NATO member? Kind of counterbalances any lack of regional allies.

Just because one is a member of a club does not mean that member will like or is liked by all.

[Winston Blake]

Turkey doesn't seem to be making friends here. They're at odds with Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Syria and Iran. I wonder if this is just Turkey's way of posturing. Hoping to make itself look tough for the U.S.

Aren't they a NATO member? Kind of counterbalances any lack of regional allies.

If you are referring to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty - the part about 'an attack on one is an attack on all' - it doesn't seem to actually obligate members to do, well, anything:

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

Note the part about 'each will assist by taking such action as it deems necessary'. Now, I am not a lawyer, but to me this seems to mean that if the other NATO members 'don't like' Turkey, they can just sit out of any conflict because they don't 'deem it necessary' to intervene. Hell, 'taking measures to restore security' is so vague it could even apply to taking Israel's side AGAINST Turkey, if Turkey is deemed to be 'the belligerent'.

Don't you just love legalese?

[Coop D'etat]

Greece is also a NATO member. And Israel is, well, Israel. Would you be willing to bet on the US supporting Turkey against Israel?

But really, this is the crossroads between Balkans and Middle East. No one gets along with their neighbours. Just about every "friendship" is an "enemy of my enemy" thing.

On a strategic level I'd think Turkey, a regional power, is a far more important American ally than Israel, a small country that appears strong due to the weakness of its neighbours. If it came down to it I'd expect an epic fight in Washington between the realpolitik types and the Israel lobby over who to support.

[Zaune]

Greece is also a NATO member. And Israel is, well, Israel. Would you be willing to bet on the US supporting Turkey against Israel?

But really, this is the crossroads between Balkans and Middle East. No one gets along with their neighbours. Just about every "friendship" is an "enemy of my enemy" thing.

If this leads to Israeli and Turkish warships exchanging fire, I can't say I would bet on it. At the very least it would put them in an awkward position regarding their obligations under the North Atlantic Treaty, and continued US support for Israel isn't exactly generating diplomatic goodwill in countries with a Muslim majority as it is.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

On a strategic level I'd think Turkey, a regional power, is a far more important American ally than Israel, a small country that appears strong due to the weakness of its neighbours. If it came down to it I'd expect an epic fight in Washington between the realpolitik types and the Israel lobby over who to support.

Such a fight might well paralyze Washington and prevent the US from reacting, at least with any speed. The US has not been required to make a call like this in recent years, because none of the other interested parties were in anything like the position Turkey is in now. The fact that Turkey is a NATO member is a major issue. If it came to a bust-up, the instinct of the European states would be to stay well out of it, and the US could be forgiven for wanting to do likewise. However, failure to make a credible effort in support of Turkey could discredit NATO at a time when its usefulness and relevance are being increasingly called into question on both sides of the Atlantic.

It's difficult to say what would happen if it came to a bust-up. The most likely spark-off scenario would be that Israeli naval and/or air forces attempt to halt a Turkish convoy and someone starts shooting. It's not much of a spark, since it can be avoided by Israel keeping its forces well away, and it may not go beyond that first incident in any case. The Turkish navy has apparently improved its C4C, radar, and SAM capabilities, meaning that while they're highly unlikely to get any aircraft kills (unless the Israelis are relying on Gabriel missiles), they might just get through unscathed. If it comes to an air battle, Israel at the very least enjoys a numerical advantage (400+ modern fighters compared to 170+ Turkish, unless you count the 150+ upgraded F4-Es), though a tech advantage is harder to pin down. On the other hand, the IAF is unlikely to have the advantage in pilot quality it has enjoyed historically. Its pilots have little or no combat experience (at least not compared to their predecessors from the major Arab-Israeli Wars), and the Turkish air force is highly thought of. The fact that they are a NATO member (which suggests they meet NATO standards) alone makes them a cut above anything Israel has previously faced. That they actually have some AWACs capability likewise makes them a very different animal.

[Narkis]

Yeah, this is wholly out of proportions. What'd happen if tensions escalate is that the US steps in as a responsible adult and tells both kids to cut it out. And neither party can afford to ignore them.

That's what happened 15 years ago when Turkey provoked Greece over some godforsaken piece of rock. No reason to change the formula.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, this is wholly out of proportions. What'd happen if tensions escalate is that the US steps in as a responsible adult and tells both kids to cut it out. And neither party can afford to ignore them.

That's what happened 15 years ago when Turkey provoked Greece over some godforsaken piece of rock. No reason to change the formula.

Probably correct.

[Ritterin Sophia]

Yeah, this is wholly out of proportions. What'd happen if tensions escalate is that the US steps in as a responsible adult and tells both kids to cut it out. And neither party can afford to ignore them.

I'm not confident enough to take that bet. Israel does a lot of things that if it were any other country America would smack down in a heartbeat, I'm confident there's a significant faction within Israel who believes they can get away with it.

[MKSheppard]

Link

EU tells Ankara to back off
By Stefanos Evripidou
Published on September 9, 2011

THE EUROPEAN Commission yesterday issued its strongest rebuke yet to Turkey over its threatening behaviour towards Cyprus’ efforts to drill for hydrocarbon reserves within its own Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Unfazed, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to raise the stakes in his row with Israel and Cyprus over hydrocarbon explorations in the eastern Mediterranean, vowing yesterday to stop them from exploiting natural resources in the area while also pledging to send warships to escort aid to Gaza.

The EU, through Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule yesterday “urged Turkey to refrain from any kind of threat, sources of friction or action, which could negatively affect good neighbourly relations and the peaceful settlement of border disputes”.

In a released statement, Fule said, “The Commission regrets any statements that are not conducive to this objective,” noting that it “regularly reiterates these issues in its discussions with Turkey and will continue to monitor Turkey’s commitments to good neighbourly relations in the light of the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes”.

The Commission further highlighted the importance of progress in the normalisation of relations between Turkey and the Republic of Cyprus. The EU also “stressed all the sovereign rights of EU member states which include entering into bilateral agreements, in accordance with the EU acquis and international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea”.

The Commission underlined the “urgent need” to reach a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus issue.

“Ahead of the crucial phase of Cyprus talks this autumn, it is essential that all parties concerned exert restrain and do their utmost to ensure a positive climate that will facilitate a successful completion of the process,” said the statement released by Fule’s office.

Tensions in the eastern Mediterranean are growing by the day as top Turkish officials continue to make cutting comments on Turkey’s plans to beef up navy patrols in the region and secure free navigation of the seas, following its spat with Israel over nine activists killed in international waters last year. Apart from Turkish demands for an Israeli apology, compensation for the families of the dead and free passage to Gaza, the combative tone of the Turkish leadership is also viewed by some analysts as a response to Israel and Cyprus’ plans to explore for oil and gas in their respective EEZs.

According to Reuters, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan went a step further yesterday in an interview with Al Jazeera saying Turkish warships will escort any Turkish aid vessels to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, preventing Israel from attacking them again.

Erdogan also said that Turkey had taken steps to stop Israel from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern Mediterranean.

“Turkish warships, in the first place, are authorised to protect our ships that carry humanitarian aid to Gaza,” Erdogan said in the interview, broadcast by Al Jazeera with an Arabic translation.

“You know that Israel has begun to declare that it has the right to act in exclusive economic areas in the Mediterranean,” Erdogan said, apparently in reference to Israeli plans to exploit offshore gas reserves found in areas that are also claimed by Lebanon.

“You will see that it will not be the owner of this right, because Turkey, as a guarantor of the Turkish republic of north Cyprus, has taken steps in the area, and it will be decisive and holding fast to the right to monitor international waters in the east Mediterranean,” he warned.

Deploying warships to escort aid vessels to Gaza and direct interference in the exploitation of Israel and Cyprus’ natural resources are the boldest statements yet to come from the outspoken Turkish leader.

Former Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat was quoted in Turkish Cypriot press yesterday criticising President Demetris Christofias for being “insanely brave” in daring to explore the island’s natural resources before a Cyprus solution.

Defence Minister Demetris Eliades yesterday condemned Erdogan’s statements, noting that Turkey has reached the point of issuing direct threats to numerous countries.

“Turkey with its overt threats against Cyprus is exposed in the eyes of the international community,” said Eliades.

Government spokesman Stefanos Stefanou said yesterday: “Turkey needs to get the message that all states should act within the framework of international law because this safeguards peace and good relations between neighbouring states. Unfortunately Turkey opts to provoke and opts for tension.”

In an interview with Voice of America, Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou Marcoullis questioned how Turkey planned to disrupt drilling, undertaken by Houston-based Noble Energy, which is due to start by month’s end.

“I would like to hear from Turkish officials what exactly they plan to do? Do they plan to attack Noble Energy’s equipment when they start the drilling, because it is not the Republic of Cyprus that is doing the drilling?”

Marcoullis called on Turkey to act like a European country and conduct its foreign policy based on the UN Charter and European principles and laws.

Head of the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KEVE) Manthos Mavromatis yesterday said the American company was ready to begin drilling despite the threat. Noble presented its plans at a closed gathering on Wednesday organised by KEVE and the Cyprus-American Business Association, in the presence of US Embassy officials.

According to Mavromatis, Noble plans to move the oil rig to Block 12 for drilling after September 20.

He noted that Noble is taking into consideration the threats but is proceeding normally, in coordination with the US State Department and Embassy here.

[Enigma]

Turkey is just using the Gaza issue as an excuse to flex its muscles over the oil and gas rights. Even the EU seems pissed at them.

[Narkis]

The EU, through Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule yesterday “urged Turkey to refrain from any kind of threat, sources of friction or action, which could negatively affect good neighbourly relations and the peaceful settlement of border disputes”.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Ha.

Oh god, he's serious, isn't he? What about the Casus Beli that Turkey has declared in order to threaten Greece not to increase its territorial waters to 12 miles as international law allows? The fact that they don't give a crap about our national airspace and FIR and frequently violate both? Or the occasional rumblings about the "ambiguous" status of various almost-islands in the Aegean whose ownership was settled in the Balkan Wars just 70 years ago and provocations thereof? Do these count as "negatively affecting good neighbourly relations?"

[Crown]

The EU, through Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule yesterday “urged Turkey to refrain from any kind of threat, sources of friction or action, which could negatively affect good neighbourly relations and the peaceful settlement of border disputes”.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Ha.

Oh god, he's serious, isn't he? What about the Casus Beli that Turkey has declared in order to threaten Greece not to increase its territorial waters to 12 miles as international law allows? The fact that they don't give a crap about our national airspace and FIR and frequently violate both? Or the occasional rumblings about the "ambiguous" status of various almost-islands in the Aegean whose ownership was settled in the Balkan Wars just 70 years ago and provocations thereof? Do these count as "negatively affecting good neighbourly relations?"

Nothing. Nothing in modern Greek politics made me so proud than the day that Greece removed her long standing veto for Turkey to enter the EU.

Not because it was the right thing to do, not because it displayed a glimmer of hope that sensible heads could prevail, not because it was a small sign that 2 generations of mistrust could be rebuilt, but mainly because all those sanctimonious, shit-eating-grin-wearing holier-than-though hypocritical politicians from the more prosperous EU countries dropped a collective brick when they couldn't hide behind 'we would have you in the EU, but unfortunately Greece keeps vetoing you!' schtick.

Sorry, I know it's off topic, but it needed to be said.

[xerex]

A military and economic alliance with Egypt is set to be signed by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The deal should be clinched when Erdogan visits Cairo next Monday - the first such visit paid by a Turkish prime minister in 15 years.

The alliance is not intended as "revenge" against Israel; Erdogan's intention is to extend Turkey's influence to areas it has not reached in past decades................


.........Recently, the foreign policy of the "new" Turkey suffered a blow when Syria ignored Turkey's "advice," and when Iran decided to criticize the Turks for their policy toward Syria. Turkey is now trying to rebuild its foreign policy, founding it upon a new strategy of appealing to resurgent Arab states such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and the nascent state of Palestine..

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/ne ... l-1.382955

[xerex]

Turkey's foreign minister says the prime minister will not cross the border into the Gaza Strip during his trip to Egypt but warns that Israel faces "growing isolation" in the region.
Ahmet Davutoglu said Sunday that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who visits Egypt Monday, will also travel to Tunisia and Libya, but will limit his itinerary to those destinations.
Israel has had strained relations recently with both Turkey and Egypt, where rioters ransacked the Israeli embassy. A visit to Gaza by Erdogan could spike tensions following Israel's refusal to apologize for its raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla that killed nine pro-Palestinian activists last year.
Israel says it "will act to lower the flames" and try to mend relations with Turkey.

http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-pm-not-vi ... 46793.html

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The obvious answer is that the moment there is a Republican president in the US again, a military coup will be sponsored by the CIA in Turkey to avoid a NATO member from getting too angry at our Best Special Pal Israel.

[MKSheppard]

Naw, the Turkish military will do it themselves, the moment the Israelis cough discreetly and talk about supporting the PKK.

[MKSheppard]

Aw, the edit window closed.

link

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has decided to adopt a series of harsh measures in response to Turkey’s latest anti-Israeli moves, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Friday.

Senior Foreign Ministry officials convened Thursday to prepare for a meeting to be held Saturday with Lieberman on the matter. Saturday’s session will be dedicated to discussing Israel’s response to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent threats and his decision to downgrade Ankara’s diplomatic ties with Jerusalem.

Following Thursday’s meeting, officials assessed that Turkey is not interested in an Israeli apology at this time and prefers to exploit the dispute with Jerusalem in order to promote Ankara’s status in the Muslim world. Lieberman therefore decided there was no point in seeking creative formulas for apologizing, instead choosing to focus Israel’s efforts on punishing Turkey.

The Foreign Ministry has now decided to proceed with the formulation of a diplomatic and security “toolbox” to be used against the Turks. The first move would be to issue a travel warning urging all Israeli military veterans to refrain from traveling to Turkey. The advisory will be especially harsh as it will also urge Israelis to refrain from boarding connections in Turkey.

Another planned Israeli move is the facilitation of cooperation with Turkey’s historic rivals, the Armenians. During Lieberman’s visit to the United States this month, the foreign minister is expected to meet with leaders of the Armenian lobby and propose anti-Turkish cooperation in Congress.

The implication of this move could be Israeli assistance in promoting international recognition of the Armenian holocaust, a measure that would gravely harm Turkey. Israel may also back Armenia in its dispute vis-à-vis Turkey over control of Mount Ararat.

Lieberman is also planning to set meetings with the heads of Kurdish rebel group PKK in Europe in order to “cooperate with them and boost them in every possible area.” In these meetings, the Kurds may ask Israel for military aid in the form of training and arms supplies, a move that would constitute a major anti-Turkish position should it materialize.

However, the violent clashes between Turkey and the Kurds only constitute one reason prompting accusations that Ankara is violating human rights. Hence, another means in Lieberman’s “toolbox” vis-à-vis Erdogan is a diplomatic campaign where Israeli missions worldwide will be instructed to join the fight and report illegal Turkish moves against minorities.

The tough response formulated by Lieberman stems, among other things, from the foreign minister’s desire to make it clear to Erdogan that his anti-Israeli moves are not a “one-way street.”

Officials in Jerusalem also noted that Turkey’s global status at this time is not promising as it is, adding that Ankara is embroiled in tensions vis-à-vis NATO and Greece, while Erdogan’s relations with Syria and Iran are also not favorable.

“We’ll exact a price from Erdogan that will prove to him that messing with Israel doesn’t pay off,” Lieberman said. “Turkey better treat us with respect and common decency.”

The Armenian issue should be fun, if Israel decides to go with any of this.

[MKSheppard]

Since this is sort of tangentally related:

link

The Obama administration is considering a request from Turkey to base a fleet of Predator drones on Turkish soil for counterterrorism operations in northern Iraq, a decision that could strengthen a diplomatic alliance but drag the United States deeper into a regional conflict.

The U.S. military has flown the unarmed Predators from Iraqi bases since 2007 and shared the planes’ surveillance video with Turkey as part of a secretive joint crackdown against fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. Unless a new home for the Predators is found, however, the counterterrorism partnership could cease by Dec. 31, when all U.S. forces are scheduled to withdraw from Iraq.

The Obama administration has not yet made a decision on the Turkish request, according to senior U.S. military officials.

Previously undisclosed diplomatic cables show Turkey has become highly dependent on the Predators, U-2 spy aircraft and other U.S. intelligence sources in its conflict with the PKK. The Kurdish group, which is fighting to create an autonomous enclave in Turkey, has launched cross-border attacks from its hideouts in northern Iraq for years. Turkey has responded with airstrikes and artillery attacks but has also sent ground troops into Iraq, further destabilizing an already volatile area.

Turkey’s request to host the Predators on its territory is an unexamined consequence of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, which some countries fear could leave a power vacuum in an unstable region. It also underscores how U.S. unmanned aircraft have swiftly become the leading tactical weapon against terrorist groups around the world, as well as a favored instrument of foreign policy.

Besides deploying armed drones in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, the United States is expanding drone missions over Yemen and Somalia. It has sent surveillance drones into Mexico for counternarcotics operations and supplied small surveillance drones to the Colombian military for counterterrorism missions.

Moral and policy dilemmas

While the drones have proved to be a highly effective tool in waging unconventional warfare, their rapid proliferation presents the U.S. government with moral and policy dilemmas. The Predator missions in northern Iraq have bolstered relations with Turkey, for instance but have also further exposed the United States to a messy local war.

Although the U.S. government officially labels the PKK a terrorist organization, the group has not targeted American interests.

The classified diplomatic cables, obtained by the anti-secrecy Web site WikiLeaks, reveal that Turkish officials have repeatedly pressed their American counterparts to escalate their involvement against the PKK and eradicate the group before U.S. forces leave Iraq.

“Before your withdrawal, it is our common responsibility to eliminate this threat,” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Army Gen. Ray Odierno, then the top U.S. commander in Iraq, in a February 2010 meeting in Ankara, according to a cable summarizing the meeting.

Odierno and other U.S. officials agreed to Turkish requests to adopt an “enhanced joint action plan” against the PKK, according to other cables. But the U.S. military has tried to keep its involvement limited, while concealing the details. It has continued to fly surveillance missions, share intelligence and help select targets, but it has resisted Turkish pressure to bomb or attack Kurdish militants directly, the cables show.

Michael Hammer, a State Department spokesman, declined to answer specific questions about the role of the Predators. “Turkey is a long-standing ally and partner of the United States, and we continue to support Turkey in its struggle against PKK terrorism through various forms of cooperation,” he said.

“We support continued cooperation between Iraq and Turkey in combating the PKK, which is a common enemy of Turkey, Iraq and the United States,” he added.

Hammer also said the State Department “strongly condemns the illegal disclosure of classified information” contained in the cables. “It threatens our national security and undermines our effort to work with countries to solve shared problems.”

Spokesmen for the Pentagon and the Turkish Embassy in Washington declined to comment.

Worsening war with militants

The conflict between Turkey and the PKK has worsened in recent weeks. In retaliation for PKK attacks on Turkish soldiers and convoys, Turkey has ordered a barrage of airstrikes that have killed more than 150 Kurdish militants since mid-August, according to the Turkish military. Human Rights Watch has reported that a handful of civilians in northern Iraq have been killed and that hundreds have been forced from their homes there.

More than 40,000 people have died in the conflict since 1984, when the PKK began a violent campaign for self-rule in southeastern Turkey.

Turkey asked the Obama administration this year to relocate the Predators to Incirlik Air Base, a joint U.S.-Turkish military installation, according to a senior U.S. military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the talks have not been made public. “They want to base them in Turkey and allow us to fly them across the border into Iraq,” the official said.

U.S. aircraft based at Incirlik played a pivotal role in enforcing a no-fly zone over northern Iraq after the first Gulf War until Saddam Hussein was deposed in 2003. About 1,500 U.S. military workers are stationed there.

It’s unclear whether U.S. or Turkish officials are seeking formal permission from Iraq to continue the drone flights, or whether Baghdad would simply turn a blind eye to the Predators when they cross into northern Iraq.

If Iraq objected to the drone flights as a violation of its sovereignty, the unmanned aircraft could hover in Turkish airspace and use cameras to peer miles across the border. There is little to prevent the Predators from making incursions, however; Iraq has only a fledgling air force to patrol its skies.

U.S. military officials favor the drone agreement with Turkey as a way of preventing the conflict with the PKK from spiraling out of control. They say U.S. cooperation has restrained Turkey from launching bigger offensives into northern Iraq to try to wipe out the PKK. The Turkish military sent tens of thousands of troops across the border in 1995 and 1997, and briefly deployed a smaller force in 2008.

“Our worry is that there would be some sort of humanitarian disaster up there,” said the senior U.S. military official. “It’s a real volatile area.”

U.S. officials have sought to serve as an intermediary between Ankara and Baghdad, as well as with Iraqi Kurdish leaders who control the northern part of the country, encouraging them to take a harder line against the PKK.

In many ways, however, Washington has been caught in a conflict between two allies. Turkey views the PKK as an existential threat. But Iraqi Kurdish leaders, who are strongly pro-American, are reluctant to crack down on fellow Kurds.

The U.S. government has publicly acknowledged providing broad intelligence and diplomatic support to Turkey to counter the PKK but has revealed little about the nature of the cooperation.

Joint intelligence cell

Fresh details, however, are contained in the U.S. diplomatic cables, which show that the hub of the effort is a “combined intelligence fusion cell” in Ankara that is staffed 24 hours a day by U.S. and Turkish military personnel.

The cell receives video feeds from Predators flying over suspected PKK camps in northern Iraq, according to the cables. The U.S. military usually operates the Predators between 12 and 16 hours a day, the cables show.

In addition to the drones, the U.S. military shares imagery from U-2 spy planes, RC-135 and EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft, as well as RQ-4 Global Hawks, a high-altitude surveillance drone.

The fusion cell in Ankara opened in November 2007 after then-President George W. Bush agreed in a meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan to help go after the PKK. Before that, Turkey had complained bitterly about a U.S. reluctance to use its forces in Iraq to hunt down PKK fighters.

In its first year of operation, the fusion cell enabled Turkey to launch more than 200 cross-border air and artillery strikes, according to a U.S. Embassy cable dated Dec. 4, 2008. The first salvo came on Dec. 16, 2007, when Turkish F-16 jets attacked 33 PKK targets in northern Iraq and the Qandil mountains, followed by combined air and artillery attacks on Dec. 17, 22 and 26.

The Turkish government claimed that 150 Kurdish militants were killed during the 11-day period, but a classified cable from the U.S. Embassy in Ankara estimated that “a more likely number is around a dozen terrorists, along with housing, training sites and cave complexes.” The embassy also reported the death of a civilian in one of the strikes and the displacement of village families but acknowledged that officials lacked the ability to independently verify the damage.

According to the cables, U.S. personnel also assist the Turks “where appropriate” in selecting which PKK targets to attack. The Turkish military also provides advance warning of their air or artillery strikes to the U.S. military to avoid “conflicting” with U.S. forces in northern Iraq.

At times, however, those warnings arrive with little notice. On Dec. 15, 2007, for example, the Turkish military informed the U.S. Office of Defense Cooperation in Ankara at 11:47 p.m. that it would launch its fighter planes at 1 a.m. U.S. military officials in Iraq scrambled to ensure that U.S. troops and aircraft weren’t in the way and gave the Turks an all-clear at 2:55 a.m. Five minutes later, Turkish forces opened fire.

The joint efforts against the PKK caused an immediate improvement in U.S.-Turkish military relations, with Gen. Ilker Basbug, commander of the Turkish armed forces, pronouncing them “perfect” in 2008.

At the same time, Turkish officials have persistently pressed the U.S. government for more. The cables show that the Turkish military has asked that the Predators provide 24-hour surveillance on a permanent basis and that they guide Turkish jets by pinpointing PKK targets with lasers.

More significantly, Turkey has tried to buy its own armed drones from the United States, seeking to purchase MQ-9 Reapers, a larger and more modern version of the Predator. The Bush and Obama administrations have supported the request, but Congress has withheld approval so far. Some legislators are reluctant to sell the aircraft to Turkey given Ankara’s deteriorating relations with Israel, a close U.S. ally.

Selling armed drones to Turkey poses other risks. PKK leaders have made vague public threats against the United States, warning them not to supply Turkey with “special assassination aircraft.”

“If the U.S. gives these aircraft to Turkey and if we are hit by them, then we will hold the U.S. responsible,” PKK leader Murat Karayilan told an interviewer in February 2010, according to a U.S. Embassy cable. “This would mean that the U.S. directly is involved in this war.”