Israel/Turkish Tensions Rise over Gaza and Cyprus

[Thanas]

Naw, the Turkish military will do it themselves, the moment the Israelis cough discreetly and talk about supporting the PKK.

Or they will simply go "Screw Israel". Lieberman especially is pathetic - now he wants to hold official talks with the radical arm of the PKK?

[MKSheppard]

And both sides appear to be walking back everything:

Link

Turkey says it won’t send gunboats to Gaza any time soon
By HERB KEINON
11/09/2011

Officials say prime minister Erdogan's quotes were misinterpreted; Israel says no decision has been made about assisting Kurds fighting Anakara.



Turkey and Israel took baby-steps back over the weekend from a further dramatic deterioration in ties, with Turkish officials saying Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s threats of sending gunboats to Gaza were misinterpreted – and Israel made clear it had not decided to support the Kurdish militants fighting Turkey.

According to officials quoted in Istanbul’s Today’s Zaman newspaper over the weekend, remarks Erdogan made during an interview on Al Jazeera Thursday about the gunboats were “quoted out of context.”

RELATED:
Erdogan threatens to send gunboats with next flotilla

According to the paper, in the Turkish version of the interview, Erdogan said: “At the moment, no doubt, Turkish warships are first of all liable to protect their own ships. This is the first step. And there is humanitarian aid, which we will extend. Our humanitarian assistance will no longer be attacked as happened in the case of the Mavi Marmara.”

A senior government official quoted by Today’s Zaman on Friday said Erdogan’s remarks did not mean Ankara was preparing to send humanitarian-aid ships to Gaza, escorted by Turkish gunboats.

“As long as Israel does not interfere in the freedom of navigation, we do not plan on sending any warships to escort humanitarian-aid ships,” the official was quoted as saying.

“The misquoted remarks suggest that we have been readying to provide a warship to escort each humanitarian aid ship. This is not the case. However, Turkey will protect its citizens’ rights in the event of any interference in international waters.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Saturday night Israel wanted to prevent a further deterioration of ties with Turkey.

“We didn’t choose this, and we will work to lower the flames, and if possible to rebuild the ties.”

Also on Saturday night, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in a Channel 2 interview that there was no Israeli proposal on the agenda to help or have contact with the PKK Kurdish militant organization.

Lieberman was referring to a story in Yediot Aharonot on Friday that this was one of the steps the government was discussing as a response to threats from Ankara.

Among the other steps reportedly under consideration in the Foreign Ministry were issuing a travel advisory warning Israelis – especially those who served in the IDF – against visits to Turkey; strengthening cooperation with the Armenians, Turkey’s historical rivals, and with their powerful lobby in Washington; and waging diplomatic warfare against Turkey in the international community by focusing the world’s attention on its human-rights violations in its ongoing battle with the Kurds.

“The Foreign Ministry has had many discussions and brainstorming sessions, and there are many ideas,” Lieberman said. “We are looking at all the scenarios. I think that regarding Turkey, both sides have an interest in strengthening the ties and returning to normalization. We don’t want a conflict with the Turks, but we also will not raise the white flag.”

Soon after the Yediot article appeared on Friday, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement saying Israel’s policy “was and remains to prevent deterioration in ties with Turkey and [to promote] a calming of the tensions between the two countries.”

The statement said the prime minister and the government discussed numerous theoretical possibilities in the event of an escalation.

“But a decision will only be made when it is needed. Israel acted, and will act, responsibly, and hopes that Turkey will do the same.”

[Pelranius]

Sometimes the general staffs of a country can act as a moderating force when the politicians want to show boat.

Of course, this doesn't address the underlying causes of why politicians can run amok to the point that the military has to work behind the things to patch it up (which should not be its primary role in a healthy civil society), or why the political system produces such loudmouths.

[MKSheppard]

And it continues...

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Turkey warned Cyprus against proceeding with offshore oil and gas drilling activities, saying Thursday it would finalize an agreement with Turkish Cypriots to mark out undersea borders to facilitate future oil and gas exploration.

The undersea boundary has been among the most contentious issues in Greek-Turkish relations, with each country trying to mark out where on the continental shelf it can exploit seabed oil and mineral deposits in the Aegean Sea.

A move by Turkey to declare such a border would aggravate relations with Greece and Cyprus, which is divided into an EU-member Greek south and a breakaway Turkish north.

The announcement by Turkey's Foreign Ministry came a day after Cyprus President Dimitris Christofias announced that U.S. firm Noble Energy will soon begin exploratory drilling to confirm deposits beneath the sea bed off Cyprus' southern coast despite Turkey's attempts to prevent such a move.

Cypriot authorities did not immediately issue a statement reacting to Turkey's announcement.

Turkey does not recognize Cyprus as a sovereign country and strongly objects to the Greek Cypriot search for mineral deposits inside the island's exclusive economic zone. That area covers 51,000 square kilometers (17,000 square miles) of seabed off the island's southern coast.

Turkey insists that Cyprus has no right to go ahead with the search before a settlement to reunify the divided island can be reached. It has warned Cyprus against pursuing "adventurist policies," and said Turkish Cypriots should also have a say in how the island's oil-and-gas rights are used.

Turkey's warning also coincides with expected deployment of Turkish warships in the east Mediterranean over Israel's refusal to apologize for the killing of nine Turkish activists on an aid ship that attempted to break the blockade of Gaza last year.

Christofias didn't specify a date for the start of drilling, which officials have said will begin early next month.

The involvement of the Noble Energy could further complicate matters for Turkey, a U.S. ally. Cyprus has licensed Noble to search for fossil fuels near two significant gas discoveries in its Israeli offshore blocks.

U.S. authorities have said the involvement of U.S. firms in such investment is a business decision, not a political one.

Cyprus has also signed agreements with Lebanon and Egypt to mark out undersea borders to facilitate future oil and gas exploration, prompting Turkey to urge those two countries to scrap the deals. Turkey separately called a deal between Cyprus and Israel demarcating their maritime borders "null and void," saying it ignores the rights and jurisdiction of breakaway Turkish Cypriots.

Turkish and Turkish Cypriot officials met in Ankara Thursday and agreed to conclude "a continental shelf delimitation agreement" between them if Cyprus does not stop plans to start drilling activities. Turkish diplomats and energy officials will travel to the island on Friday for further talks, the ministry added.

Turkey believes the Greek Cypriot search would damage long-running talks aimed at reunification. The Greek Cypriot government says the search is its sovereign right and Turkish Cypriots could share the potential bounty once a peace accord is signed.

However, Turkey's stakes in the dispute are higher as Cyprus has threatened to further impede Turkey's EU accession negotiations. It had accused Turkish warships of interfering with an offshore fossil fuel survey in 2008.

Turkey's EU membership bid is already hobbled with negotiations on some policy have been frozen over Turkey's refusal to allow ships and planes from Cyprus to enter its ports and airspace, and the EU says Ankara must open its airspace to the EU member if it wants to get closer to membership itself.

In return, Turkey insists on the lifting of what it says is the unofficial trade embargo on the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state in the north of the island, which was divided into a Greek Cypriot south and a Turkish Cypriot north following Turkey's 1974 invasion. Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, but only the south enjoys the membership's benefits.

The island's northern part declared its independence in 1983 but it is recognized only by Turkey, which maintains 35,000 troops there.

Anyway, guess who is involved in the whole thing!

Link

Russia has sent two nuclear-powered submarines to patrol Eastern Mediterranean waters around Cyprus and enforce the island's right to explore for undersea oil and gas in its territorial seas, according to information from Defencenet.gr, citing a Russian FM spokesman.

Alexander Lukashevich said that Russia supports Cyprus and guarantees its security if it is threatened: "Under the UN Convention on International Law, among 162 other signatory states, including Cyprus, each state has sovereign rights in its EEZ for exploring, exploiting and protecting both live and non-living natural resources, including water, the seabed and subsoil," said Lukashevich in comments made on August 19th and reported by Defencenet.gr (in Greek).

So far there has been no reaction from the foreign ministry on reports that Russian submarines will be sent to protect Cyprus from any potential military threat from Turkey. A telephone call to the foreign ministry for comment has not yet been returned. A telephone call to the press attache at the Russian Embassy in Nicosia has also not yet been returned.

The submarines are due in early September and are being interpreted as a clear warning to Turkey to stay away from Noble Energy's drilling sites in Block 12. Noble is set to start exploring for undersea gas at the beginning of October along with Israeli energy company DELEK, which has reached an agreement with Noble Energy to share in its licensing deal with Cyprus, reported Globes.co.il.

Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis just wrapped up a visit to Israel to discuss undersea hydrocarbon exploration with President of Israel Shimon Peres, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman. Israel and Cyprus' interests are closely aligned after the two countries signed an agreement delimiting their maritime borders in late 2010. The agreement also led to cooperation on undersea reserves exploitation and closer diplomatic relations, with Peres expected to visit Cyprus in the near future.

Turkey has also not yet commented on the development and is one of the countries which has not signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas, which has been in force since 1994. There are 162 countries that have ratified the Convention, including Cyprus and Greece.

On August 9th, Turkey renewed its veiled threats towards Cyprus on the issue of undersea gas and oil exploration, with a statement from its foreign ministry saying that "the Greek Cypriot Administration does not represent in law or in fact the Turkish Cypriots and Cyprus as a whole."

Bilateral agreements between Cyprus, Lebanon and Israel are "unilateral actions" which could derail settlement talks, give rise to new conflicts and increase tensions in the region, according to the statement.

"These unlawful acts create tension in the region, compromise and prejudge the Turkish Cypriots’ existing and inherent equal rights over the natural resources of the island," says Turkey's foreign ministry.

In response, recently-appointed foreign minister Erato Kozakou-Marcoulis said that the statements were 'posturing' from Turkey and that she would complain to the UN Security Council and the EU. And President Demetris Christofias called on the international community to end its silence on Turkey's threatening attitude to Cyprus.

Behind the scenes, the international community backs Cyprus on its oil exploration, according to US cables released by Wikileaks.ch. The government's plan to allow US companies like Noble Energy and others to drill in its Exclusive Economic Zone is well within its legal rights and Turkey does not have a "legal leg to stand on", says a 2007 confidential cable from the US Embassy in Nicosia

So...Now we may have a pair of fast attacks prowling the Med....

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, that's really fucking scary. I mean, consider the possible results of Russia sending two nuclear subs to get involved in a conflict with a NATO member.

[Stark]

Yeah, I'm terrified that the Russians will open fire.

Ok, that's a lie. I'm not.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, I'm terrified that the Russians will open fire.

Ok, that's a lie. I'm not.

I don't think its likely. But all it takes is a misunderstanding, someone making a stupid mistake... that's why their simply being in the area is frightening.

Also, Russia is sending two nuclear subs to protect Cyprus. Unless they're just bluffing, that means that they are willing to fire if Turkey tries anything.

[MKSheppard]

Well, we should all know by the middle of October, which is when Noble (US company) and DELEK (Israeli) start exploring off Greek Cyprus...

[Stark]

'Unless they're bluffing'? Are you serious?

[Zaune]

Well, that's really fucking scary. I mean, consider the possible results of Russia sending two nuclear subs to get involved in a conflict with a NATO member.

I don't think the Russians are crazy enough to get involved beyond the purely commercial aspects; didn't I read somewhere that Turkey is considering buying a new SAM system from them? Besides, two modern armed forces on a more or less equal footing and both with access to nuclear weapons squaring off is scary enough as it is.

[Kane Starkiller]

OK reality check.
Moscow didn't go to war with Turkey back in 1974 when Turkey invaded Cyprus and occupied 37% of its territory. And back then Turkey had 15.7% of the population of USSR and 9.3% of its GDP.
It sure as shit won't start a war over some gas fields today when Turkey has 51.6% of Russian population and 50.2% of its GDP.

[The Romulan Republic]

Like I said, I don't think its likely. But I still don't feel comfortable about Russian sending two nuclear subs to get involved in a tense situation against a NATO member.

[Eframepilot]

Like I said, I don't think its likely. But I still don't feel comfortable about Russian sending two nuclear subs to get involved in a tense situation against a NATO member.

Even in the worst case scenario, WWIII is not going to start over gas rights around Cyprus. NATO's bylaws might require it, but the rest of Europe and the U.S. will not spring into war with Russia for Turkey's sake over such a trivial issue. Though I suppose that NATO's credibility would be destroyed.

[The Romulan Republic]

Like I said, I don't think its likely. But I still don't feel comfortable about Russian sending two nuclear subs to get involved in a tense situation against a NATO member.

Even in the worst case scenario, WWIII is not going to start over gas rights around Cyprus. NATO's bylaws might require it, but the rest of Europe and the U.S. will not spring into war with Russia for Turkey's sake over such a trivial issue. Though I suppose that NATO's credibility would be destroyed.

Heh, which would not doubt suit Russia just fine.

[Zaune]

Even in the worst case scenario, WWIII is not going to start over gas rights around Cyprus. NATO's bylaws might require it, but the rest of Europe and the U.S. will not spring into war with Russia for Turkey's sake over such a trivial issue. Though I suppose that NATO's credibility would be destroyed.

Maybe not solely on Turkey's account, but there's nothing like an external threat for distracting people from domestic political crises.

[The Romulan Republic]

You really think they'd be stupid enough to start World War three as a political distraction? If anything happens, it won't be because of that.

[Zaune]

Suffice it to say that underestimating the depths of stupidity that my home country's government is capable of plumbing is not a mistake I'm going to make twice. I'm not overly optimistic that every other European government is that much smarter.
It'll start out small, of course; they'll start by picking a side, releasing a mildly provocative statement and deploying a frigate or two to "monitor the situation". But then Israel or Turkey deploys extra warships or unilaterally recognise Palestine/Kurdistan or something in retaliation, the other side ramp up their forces in-theatre in response and the situation slowly but inexorably spirals out of control. And the people in charge won't make more than a half-hearted attempt to stop things getting out of hand until the 11th hour because it's oh-so-conveniently distracting the media from asking awkward questions about why a tenth of the population is out of a job.

[MKSheppard]

Link

(Reuters) - EU-candidate Turkey will freeze relations with the European Union if Cyprus is given the EU presidency in 2012, Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay was quoted as saying by the state-run news agency Anatolian late on Saturday.

The comments could signal a new low point in ties between the European Union and Turkey which began accession talks to the bloc in 2005.

They come at a time of heightened tension in the eastern Mediterranean where Turkey is locked in a row with Cyprus over potential offshore gas deposits and Turkey's relations with one-time ally Israel are frayed.

"If the peace negotiations there (Cyprus) are not conclusive, and the EU gives its rotating presidency to southern Cyprus, the real crisis will be between Turkey and the EU," Anatolian quoted Atalay as telling Turkish Cypriot Bayrak Radio and TV at the end of a trip to northern Cyprus.

"Because we will then freeze our relations with the EU. We have made this announcement, as a government we have made this decision. Our relations with the EU will come to a sudden halt."

Officials at the European Commission in Brussels were not immediately available for comment.

The internationally-recognized Greek Cypriot government is due to take on the six-month rotating EU presidency in July 2012.

Cyprus has been divided since a Turkish invasion in 1974 triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup. U.N.-sponsored peace talks between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots have stumbled since they were relaunched in 2008.

In July, Turkey's European Union minister said freezing ties with the Greek Cypriot EU presidency was "an option." While Muslim Turkey started accession talks in 2005, progress has been slow, largely because of the conflict with Cyprus.

The EU says Ankara must meet a pledge to open up traffic from the Greek Cypriot part of the island under a deal known as the Ankara protocol. Turkey says the EU should end its blockade of the Turkish Cypriot enclave.

"PROVOCATION"

Adding to tensions is an escalating row between Turkey and Cyprus over Greek Cypriot plans to launch gas explorations around the island.

Turkey has voiced strong opposition to the plans and on Saturday Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Cyprus' plans amounted to "provocation" and it would consider carrying out its own offshore surveys with northern Cyprus if drilling went ahead.

The Greek Cypriot government has said it would block Turkey's EU-entry talks if Ankara continued to oppose the plans. The United Nations has appealed for a peaceful resolution to the dispute, saying both sides of the island should benefit from any energy reserves.

The European Union, this month, told Turkey not to issue threats against Cyprus. Stoking tension in the eastern Mediterranean is a sharp deterioration in relations between Turkey and Israel following the 2010 killing of Turkish activists in an Israeli raid on a ship bound for Gaza.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said Turkish warships could be sent to the eastern Mediterranean at any time and Israel could not do whatever it wants there [nL5E7KF1LE].

Greek Cypriots represent Cyprus internationally and in the European Union, while Turkey is the only country to recognize the Turkish Cypriot state. Greek Cypriots say Turkey cannot join the bloc until the Cyprus conflict is resolved.

The rotating presidency has lost some importance since the EU's Lisbon treaty, which established a permanent head of the European Council that groups national governments, and a new foreign and security policy chief. But a determined country can still shape the agenda.

Of the 35 "chapters" -- policy areas of EU law -- Turkey has completed one, and 18 have been frozen because of opposition by EU member states including Cyprus and France.

(Reporting by Jonathon Burch; editing by Rosalind Russell)