BBC Interview with Trader; confesses his dream is recession

[blahface]

Whatever you do, don't listen to people like J who will directly profit from you making the wrong decisions, or the right decisions too slowly. The 'dumb money' people like her talk about? It's you. You're the ones that fuel her lifestyle (and promotion path).

Who is J?

[Starglider]

Do some research. Real research. Figure out what has been historically stable and the least effected by the current problems and put the money in that, and then just leave it. Don't expect massive returns, as long as its doing better than inflation you're fine for now. Part of the reason people saw massive losses in retirement funds is because they opted to put their assets in things that can potentially gain a lot, but ignored the risks that come along with that.

Even switching between cash and index trackers on 50-day moving average has a much better historical track record than Kernel's literally intelligence-free 'buy and forget about it' plan. Shovelling in funds without thought fills the pool of 'not just dumb, actually comatose' money for investment banks to steal.

[Xisiqomelir]

Do some research. Real research. Figure out what has been historically stable and the least effected by the current problems and put the money in that, and then just leave it. Don't expect massive returns, as long as its doing better than inflation you're fine for now. Part of the reason people saw massive losses in retirement funds is because they opted to put their assets in things that can potentially gain a lot, but ignored the risks that come along with that.

Even switching between cash and index trackers on 50-day moving average has a much better historical track record than Kernel's literally intelligence-free 'buy and forget about it' plan. Shovelling in funds without thought fills the pool of 'not just dumb, actually comatose' money for investment banks to steal.

I think in 20 years time people will realize that Burton Malkiel, aided and abetted by people like Jack Bogle, has caused untold damage to the investment profession (less important) and the retirement security of millions of people (very important).

I have no idea how EMH continues to be propagated as a viable theory.

[Starglider]

I think in 20 years time people will realize that Burton Malkiel, aided and abetted by people like Jack Bogle, has caused untold damage to the investment profession (less important) and the retirement security of millions of people (very important).

Buy and hold mutual funds worked well in the 1990s and to a lesser extent 1980s. It is exactly what Baby Boomers suddenly concerned with saving for retirement (those of them that bothered) wanted to hear; park money here, no thought or understanding required, just hope for the best, ignore any problems and all will be well. Fifteen years later Kernel et al still idolise the 90s and think that all of these transitory difficulties will soon be over, we are sure to surpass the 2000 inflation-adjusted high any year now, no need to think about paradigm shifts or long wave cycles or debt collapse.

Believing it's ok to be ignorant and passive is a hell of a risk to take with your lifetime savings. It's true that amateurs making emotional decisions do tend to buy high and sell low, but simple technical strategies such as exponential moving averages have demonstrable outperformance and are verifiable and accessible to everyone, no fund management fee required.