Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit deal)

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Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit deal)

Post by MKSheppard »

It absolutely proves that HAMAS was right to kidnap Shalit back in 2006 -- 1 live Israeli = 1,000 Palestinians.

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JERUSALEM — Israel and the militant Islamist group Hamas announced Tuesday that they had agreed on an exchange that would free about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in return for Staff Sgt. Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier held captive in the Gaza Strip for more than five years.

The consummation of a deal between the sworn adversaries after years of fruitless negotiations reflected the pressures facing both Israel and Hamas at a time of region-wide uprisings and a rapidly shifting Middle Eastern landscape.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously warned that a swap for Shalit would free dangerous militants and put Israel’s security at risk. But amid a relentless campaign by Shalit’s family that won the hearts of the Israeli public, Netanyahu ultimately bowed. In remarks Tuesday night, he acknowledged that Israel, which has become increasingly isolated amid the regional tumult, was faced with the stark choice of winning Shalit’s freedom now or seeing the chance disappear forever.

Hamas, meanwhile, receives a much-needed boost from the deal at a time when it has been overshadowed by Fatah, its chief rival, which has led a popular bid at the United Nations for Palestinian statehood. By winning the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas can claim an achievement that had long eluded the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority.

Still, the move eliminates one of Hamas’s chief bargaining chips in its dealings with Israel. And despite the successful outcome of the Egyptian-brokered negotiations, there was little indication that Tuesday’s deal would lead to a broader breakthrough in Middle Eastern peace talks, which remain dormant.

Both Israel and Hamas were quick on Tuesday to trumpet news of the swap.

“If all goes well, Gilad will return to Israel in the coming days, to his family and people,” Netanyahu said in public remarks before his cabinet overwhelmingly approved the deal, which had been signed in Cairo by both sides.

In a televised speech from Damascus, Syria, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal said 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will be released: 450 within a week, followed by 550 two months later. He said those freed will include 315 serving life sentences and 34 of the longest-serving prisoners. In addition, all 27 Palestinian women held in Israeli jails will be freed, he said.

Yoram Cohen, chief of the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security service, told reporters that the freed prisoners will not include top Hamas commanders and prominent figures whose release had long been sought by the Islamist group. Those include Marwan Barghouti, a popular leader of the Fatah movement in the West Bank who played a leading role in the second Palestinian uprising and who is serving five life sentences for directing deadly attacks on Israelis.

Cohen said more than 200 of the freed prisoners would either be deported abroad or moved from the West Bank to the Gaza Strip. Of the 450 prisoners to be released in the first stage, Cohen said, 280 had life sentences. The exact timing of the releases was unclear as of late Tuesday.

Shalit, 25, a member of a tank crew, was seized in June 2006 in a cross-border attack by Hamas militants who tunneled into Israel from the Gaza Strip and attacked an Israeli army post near the frontier. He has not been visited by the Red Cross or seen since, except in a video released by Hamas in 2009 in which he appeared alive and well.

The deal provides Netanyahu with a lift at home at a time when he has been accused of diplomatic inaction and leaving Israel isolated amid sweeping change in the region

“I believe that we reached the best agreement that could be achieved at this time, when storms are buffeting the Middle East,” Netanyahu said. “I don’t know whether the near future would have enabled us to achieve a better agreement, or an agreement at all, and it is very likely that this window of opportunity created by current circumstances would have closed for good, and we would not have brought Gilad back at all.”

Seated before a Palestinian flag and the banner of Hamas, Meshal on Tuesday assumed the mantle of a national leader in his televised speech, declaring the prisoner swap a “great national achievement” for the Palestinian people. He said that the prisoners to be freed were from the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, Israel and abroad, showing “the unity of the people, inside and outside.”

The prisoner release, he said, was a prelude to the achievement of other national goals: “liberating the land, liberating Jerusalem and the return” of the Palestinian refugees to their former homes in Israel.

Hamas had watched from the sidelines as its rival, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, led the Palestinian statehood bid in New York last month and rode a wave of popularity for standing up to U.S. pressure against the move.

“Hamas is watching Abbas’s popularity go up after his speech at the U.N., and they are trying to regain their popularity lost in the few years since they have taken over the Gaza Strip,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza.

Hamas routed Abbas’s Fatah faction in a brief civil war in the Gaza Strip in 2007, seizing control of the territory. A deal reached this year between the two factions has yielded little actual reconciliation.

Egypt has long served as the mediator between Israel and Hamas in the Shalit negotiations, and that has not changed since Egyptians overthrew President Hosni Mubarak in February.

The post-revolutionary Egyptian leadership — an interim military council — has maintained channels of communication with the Israelis while improving ties with Hamas, which Mubarak viewed with hostility.

“The Egyptians, with all their problems, were engaged full steam,” said David Meidan, Israel’s special envoy.

The deal produced expressions of joy among both Israelis and Palestinians.

Gazans celebrated in the streets Tuesday night, with Hamas supporters touting the deal as a resounding victory. In Jerusalem, near the tent where Shalit’s parents and supporters have held a months-long vigil outside Netanyahu’s official residence, a crowd gathered to dance and wave flags.

Capitalizing on the emotions of the moment, Netanyahu said he had called in the captive soldier’s parents and told them that he was keeping his promise to bring their son home.

“I told them, ‘I’m bringing your boy back,’ ” he said.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by K. A. Pital »

Israel should have agreed to deal with secular Palestian elements when PLO was still around. Israel should have agreed to the Palestian offers detailed in the Palestine papers when FATAH was still cool and dandy. Israel should not have attempted to play in the "big geopolitics game" relying on the USA to give them money for war industries and to support their "settlement" endeavours. Now they just reap the coming storm.

Didn't want to deal with secularists? You'll deal with Islamists and you'll do what they say because otherwise your soldiers will get cut up rough now.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Korto »

Isreal's got absolutely no bargaining power when it come to these exchanges, and this just reflects that fact. It does absolutely no harm to Hamas or the PLO for Isreal to hold 1000 Palestinians. It may even be a slight advantage for them (world opinion). It is quite harmful to the Isreali government for the Palestinians to hold even one Isreali, and it's a wound that doesn't stop bleeding until they get him back.
It is then, of course, a nice propaganda coup to get back 1000 of your own people for only one of theirs.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by eyl »

Stas Bush wrote:Israel should have agreed to deal with secular Palestian elements when PLO was still around. Israel should have agreed to the Palestian offers detailed in the Palestine papers when FATAH was still cool and dandy. Israel should not have attempted to play in the "big geopolitics game" relying on the USA to give them money for war industries and to support their "settlement" endeavours. Now they just reap the coming storm.

Didn't want to deal with secularists? You'll deal with Islamists and you'll do what they say because otherwise your soldiers will get cut up rough now.
How would that have made a difference? Leaving aside the issue of the Palestine Papers themselves, Shalit was already in Hamas hands (and the PA's power was far from its peak) at that time, and I don't really see the PA overcoming Hamas militarily - Israel would still have wound up making a similiar deal.
Korto wrote:Isreal's got absolutely no bargaining power when it come to these exchanges, and this just reflects that fact. It does absolutely no harm to Hamas or the PLO for Isreal to hold 1000 Palestinians. It may even be a slight advantage for them (world opinion). It is quite harmful to the Isreali government for the Palestinians to hold even one Isreali, and it's a wound that doesn't stop bleeding until they get him back.
It is then, of course, a nice propaganda coup to get back 1000 of your own people for only one of theirs.
Frankly I've generally been of the opinion that Israel is correct in not using the death penalty (as a practical matter, it's theoretically possible under law) for particularly serious cases of Palestinian terrorists. What's the point of a life sentence if we wind up releasing them a few years later?
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Edi »

eyl wrote:
Stas Bush wrote:Israel should have agreed to deal with secular Palestian elements when PLO was still around. Israel should have agreed to the Palestian offers detailed in the Palestine papers when FATAH was still cool and dandy. Israel should not have attempted to play in the "big geopolitics game" relying on the USA to give them money for war industries and to support their "settlement" endeavours. Now they just reap the coming storm.

Didn't want to deal with secularists? You'll deal with Islamists and you'll do what they say because otherwise your soldiers will get cut up rough now.
How would that have made a difference? Leaving aside the issue of the Palestine Papers themselves, Shalit was already in Hamas hands (and the PA's power was far from its peak) at that time, and I don't really see the PA overcoming Hamas militarily - Israel would still have wound up making a similiar deal.
The entire point here is that Israel should have dealt in good faith back in the 1990s instead of letting Netanyahoo sabotage the peace process. Israel drove the largely secular PLO, which had used terrorism for political objectives (asymmetric warfare and all that) out of power and into the margins, paving the way for HAMAS, which is driven by religious motives and more specifically fundamentalist religious motives.

You can negotiate with someone who has only a political motivation. You can't negotiate with a religious fundamentalist, not in a meaningful way, which is what Stas is saying.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by eyl »

Edi wrote:The entire point here is that Israel should have dealt in good faith back in the 1990s instead of letting Netanyahoo sabotage the peace process. Israel drove the largely secular PLO, which had used terrorism for political objectives (asymmetric warfare and all that) out of power and into the margins, paving the way for HAMAS, which is driven by religious motives and more specifically fundamentalist religious motives.

You can negotiate with someone who has only a political motivation. You can't negotiate with a religious fundamentalist, not in a meaningful way, which is what Stas is saying.
Well, he was specifying a solution based on the Palestine Papers, which is only relevant to 2008.

I should also point out that the PA under Arafat wasn't exactly dealing in good faith either. For one thing, the PA, which had supposedly forsworn terrorism against Israel, was turning a blind eye to it for much of the process (especially before Netanyahu came to power) when it wasn't actively abetting it (or participating, in a few instances).

Frankly, everyone was so ujpset about rocking the boat that they refused to address violations of the process. Given that, its collapse didn't exactly surprise me.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

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Link to JPOST article

I've bulletpointed the JPOST list of the bad apples who'll be released here; and excluded those who did shooting attacks which killed just one or two, since those are just really shitmooks who are expendable in the end.
  • Walid Anajas, who was convicted for his involvement in the bombing of the Moment Cafe in Jerusalem in 2002; which killed 12 and wounded 54.
  • Nasser Yataima, convicted of planning the 2002 Passover Seder suicide-bomb attack on the Park Hotel in Netanya, in which 30 civilians were killed and 140 were wounded.
  • Musab Hashlemon, of Hebron, who was sentenced to 17 life sentences for dispatching two suicide bombers to Beersheba, will be released. Sixteen civilians were murdered when the bombers detonated themselves on two buses in central Beersheba in 2004.
  • Fadi Muhammad al-Jabaa, sentenced to 18 life sentences for plotting the suicide bombing of a Haifa bus in 2003, in which 17 passengers were murdered, will be released and deported to Gaza.
  • Maedh Abu Sharakh -- also convicted of the above suicide bombing.
  • Mazen Muhammad Faqha, who plotted the 2002 suicide bus bombing near Safed, in which nine passengers were murdered and 40 wounded, will also be released and deported to Gaza.
  • Tamimi Ahlam, the Palestinian female Hamas terrorist convicted of aiding and abetting the suicide bomber who murdered 15 civilians and wounded 140 in the 2001 Sbarro pizzeria bombing in the capital will be deported to her native Jordan.
  • Amir Jabar Sharif Sawalma, of Nablus, arrested in 2003, was sentenced to six life sentences for an array of lethal terrorist acts. He was involved in a shooting attack that killed two IDF soldiers; but that's a freebie. Why is he on this list then? He also dispatched two suicide bombers and prepared their explosives belts at IDF positions, killing an additional two soldiers and injuring eight. Still a freebie. Sawalma also sent a third suicide bomber to a civilian target. The bomber was stopped by a security guard, who was killed in the attack.
  • Jabril Ismail, a Hamas terrorist operative, assembled a bomb and hid it in a radio. He placed the device at the entrance to an apartment building in Modi’in. A landlord was badly wounded in his hand and face in the attack. Ismail also plotted a suicide bombing at a gas station in the central Israeli town of Neveh Yamin in 2001. Two teenagers were murdered and four were wounded in the attack.
And of course; there's...
  • Abd al-Aziz Salaha, who in 2001 took part in the murder of two IDF soldiers who mistakenly drove into Ramallah. Salaha was caught on camera holding out hands covered in blood after beating one of the soldiers to death. He held his hands out of a Ramallah police station where the soldiers were killed, to a frenzied Palestinian crowd that gathered outside.
That was a particularly bad one; as according to Wikipedia (I know I know); the soldiers had their eyes gouged out and were disemboweled. No idea if that happened pre- or post- death.

Anyway; there was an article in my Washington Post today; which had some interviews with family members of various victims' families:

Linkypoo

I've also seen this sort of dynamic play out on Israeli weblogs -- there are those who want to bring Gilad Shalit home at any price, while there are other; more rational people who think that this is too high a price to pay, and just provides a further risk/reward incentitive for a future kidnapping.

I can understand where the urge to bring Shalit home comes from; America spends a lot of money each year sending investigators around the world to recover MIA remains and bring them back to the US for burial -- LINK

And of course, pretty much the entire 1993 Battle of Mogadishu was around rescuing a small group of soldiers in extreme danger in hostile territory.

But Shalit? Israel made no attempt to rescue Shalit for five years, until they reached a deal to release a lot of really bad people in exchange for him.

Of course, there are claims that Hamas boobytrapped Shalit's location with explosives for hundreds of meters around it; and would detonate the explosives in case of a rescue attempt to deny Israel the moral victory of recovering Shalit.

I don't buy that; because with that arrangement, the longer you have it in place, the greater the chance of a 'own goal' in which the explosives go off due to poor quality or random action (car hits building, knocks over something inside, the impact of that provides enough shock to detonate the explosives nearby).

The other argument -- that they'd simply kill Shalit to prevent him from being liberated, falls apart when you consider it -- because it'd be the worst possible outcome for HAMAS; because it would leave them looking in the worst possible light as the Israeli commandoez bust down the door to his cell and find him dead with a bullet to the head, and the corpse is still at 97 deg F...

So yeah...Just :wtf: here.

Then again, Ron Arad is still MIA some 25 years after he baled out of a F-4 Phantom II over Lebanon, and fell into Hizbollah's clutches. Back in 2006; Hizbollah claimed that Arad was dead, and that his remains were "lost".

(yes, the quotemarks around that are intentional).
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Sephirius »

I for one am hoping the IDF watched very carefully where these guys fled to once they released them. I think an AGM-114 would be a nice going-away present, don't you? :twisted:
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Uraniun235 »

If they wanted them dead they could have just executed them while they were in custody. Far cheaper than indulging your lust for high-tech ordnance.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

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I for one am hoping the IDF watched very carefully where these guys fled to once they released them. I think an AGM-114 would be a nice going-away present, don't you? :twisted:
Yup. And it totally wouldn't lead to HAMAS just shooting future prisoners in the head to be done with it, no siree.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

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Alkaloid wrote:Yup. And it totally wouldn't lead to HAMAS just shooting future prisoners in the head to be done with it, no siree.
The Israelis have done prisoner transfers in the past to get corpses back of people who were killed in action, and their corpses seized by militants. So...
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Alkaloid »

Yeah, and they've done prisoner transfers to get live prisoners back too. A policy of tracking and assassinating exchanged prisoners just removes any advantage to HAMAS actually taking prisoners in the first place, so they will simply stop taking prisoners and start killing them instead.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by eyl »

MKSheppard wrote:But Shalit? Israel made no attempt to rescue Shalit for five years, until they reached a deal to release a lot of really bad people in exchange for him.

Of course, there are claims that Hamas boobytrapped Shalit's location with explosives for hundreds of meters around it; and would detonate the explosives in case of a rescue attempt to deny Israel the moral victory of recovering Shalit.

I don't buy that; because with that arrangement, the longer you have it in place, the greater the chance of a 'own goal' in which the explosives go off due to poor quality or random action (car hits building, knocks over something inside, the impact of that provides enough shock to detonate the explosives nearby).
For a long time (possibly until know, for that matter), Israel didn't have any idea where exactly Shalit was kept; it's debatable whether even Hamas knew exactly.

And bear in mind that a military operation in the heart of Gaza is something with a huge potential to turn into a clusterfuck.
The other argument -- that they'd simply kill Shalit to prevent him from being liberated, falls apart when you consider it -- because it'd be the worst possible outcome for HAMAS; because it would leave them looking in the worst possible light as the Israeli commandoez bust down the door to his cell and find him dead with a bullet to the head, and the corpse is still at 97 deg F...
How so? They just wait until the commandos are on their doorstep and shoot him. What, you think they're afraid of getting a reputation for viciousness?

Besides, this has happened before. When Nahshon Waxman was kidnapped, Israel tracked down the captors and sent in a rescue operation; Waxman was then shot by his captors and another commando killed (and bear in mind that was probably simpler than an operation in Gaza would be, IIRC they were holed up in a rather isolated location).
Sephirius wrote:I for one am hoping the IDF watched very carefully where these guys fled to once they released them. I think an AGM-114 would be a nice going-away present, don't you?
Instantly giving Israel an iron-clad reputation as terminally utrustworthy...great idea.

I assume they are being tracked, however...if they return to terrorism, they become fair game.

EDIT - anyway, Shalit has just been transferred to Israel, according to YNet.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by hongi »

I don't understand how 1 Israeli life is as important as 1000 Palestinian ones. I know his family were lobbying pretty hard, but still. It's hard to believe.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

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hongi wrote:I don't understand how 1 Israeli life is as important as 1000 Palestinian ones. I know his family were lobbying pretty hard, but still. It's hard to believe.
It's a hideously distorted calculation made by his family (whose feelings are of course understandable and excusable), by members of the Israeli public (who probably ought to know better) and Israeli pols (who are unbelievably fucking irresponsible, to have done this).

per MSNBC, "Hamas and other Gaza militant groups have vowed to seize more Israeli hostages for exchange until all 5,000 Palestinians still in Israeli prisons are released." Yeah. Fucking duh.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by SirNitram »

I can't help but agree with Stas in generality: Deal with the political secularists and you have a chance for peace. HAMAS isn't gonna be onboard for any peace but the peace of graves.

Further, the pols who approved this have more or less given away the store. Once you make one of yours equal to a thousand of the other, you can and will be raped right through your pants in the future. Israel is screwing itself.. Which is nothing new, frankly.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by weemadando »

An interesting counterpoint from a Beeb interview.

Apparently at the rate at which Israel conducts raids and secures prisoners (twenty to fifty a day was the quoted figure) it would take them at most 3 months to replace the thousand which they released.

How many Israeli soldiers have been captured in the past five years again?
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

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I think the Israeli concern has more to do with keeping bad actors out of circulation and away from mischief, than with pumping up the head-count they have incarcerated. Not much comfort in "hey, we have the jails re-filled" when the previous occupants are out and about, wreaking havoc.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Zaune »

Kanastrous wrote:I think the Israeli concern has more to do with keeping bad actors out of circulation and away from mischief, than with pumping up the head-count they have incarcerated. Not much comfort in "hey, we have the jails re-filled" when the previous occupants are out and about, wreaking havoc.
That would depend on the value of the prisoners they actually released. As Shep noted earlier in the thread, most of them seem to be low-level grunts of the sort Hamas has in abundance and quite probably considers expendable.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Crateria »

Zaune wrote:
Kanastrous wrote:I think the Israeli concern has more to do with keeping bad actors out of circulation and away from mischief, than with pumping up the head-count they have incarcerated. Not much comfort in "hey, we have the jails re-filled" when the previous occupants are out and about, wreaking havoc.
That would depend on the value of the prisoners they actually released. As Shep noted earlier in the thread, most of them seem to be low-level grunts of the sort Hamas has in abundance and quite probably considers expendable.
Hamas will continue to have them in abundance due to the religious philosophy it adheres to appealing to many in the nation and the Middle East as well as most meaningful Palestinian efforts basically being geared towards combating Israel. As others have said, the secular PLO should have been the one to have negotiated with.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Kanastrous »

The secular PLO didn't have the prisoner whose release was being negotiated. And no leverage with which to force HAMAS to make him available.
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Crateria »

Kanastrous wrote:The secular PLO didn't have the prisoner whose release was being negotiated. And no leverage with which to force HAMAS to make him available.
I know they didn't have the prisoner or leverage. I meant back when they were still a relevant force in Palestine.

EDIT: Argh, I'm not explaining well, am I? I mean that Israel should have negotiated in good faith and discussed with the PLO instead of signing them off back in the 90s. Edi said it well.
Damn you know it. You so smart you brought up like history and shit. Laying down facts like you was a blues clues episode or something. How you get so smart? Like the puns and shit you use are wicked smart, Red Letter Moron! HAHAHAHAH!1 Fucks that is funny, you like should be on TV with Jeff Dunham and shit.-emersonlakeandbalmer
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Re: Israel proves it's stupidity yet again (Gilad Shalit dea

Post by Thanas »

I'm happy that the guy is back with his family. He suffered enough.
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A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
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