Venezualen Navy claims to have detected a nuclear submarine.

[VarrusTheEthical]

So here's something interesting, apparently the Chavez seems to think the Venezuelan navy managed to detect a nuke sub that then ran off.


Thoughts?

[Mr. Coffee]

Chavez is nuttier than a shit house rat, but we kind of already knew that, guy.

[LaCroix]

Why is it so outright impossibe that a sub was there? Even if it wasn't an US one (which I wouldn't rule out, neither, as there was something you might keep an eye on happening there), there are more subs out in the open than the Us Navy.

It might have been a faster diesel or even a real nuclear, but I doubt the Venezuelan sub chased a whale that was faster than they were. (On the other hand... )

[VarrusTheEthical]

I certainly think it's certainly plausible that there could have been a nuclear sub, and if it is true, the most likely culprit would be the US Navy. Nuke boats are excellent intelligence gathering platforms, and waters around Venezuela are practically on the US's door step. And to be honest, this ranks pretty low on the crazy meter when it comes to claims by Chavez.

[Winston Blake]

It wasn't so long ago that British and French nuclear submarines randomly collided with each other. And that's with 3 dimensions to play with!

In other words, there are a lot of subs pootling around out there, and chance encounters can happen. I know one of the main roles of Australia's submarines is gathering radio emissions. It's not hard to imagine a ship happening to pass near a sub that was near the surface for such purposes.

[CJvR]

...the Venezuelan navy managed to detect a nuke sub that then ran off.

Well the Venezuelan navy have a pair of 209's. It is not impossible for them to have detected a SSN, particulary one at high speed.

[LaCroix]

The Sabalo class built for Venezuela was slightly lengthened during an modernization at HDW in the early 1990s. The increased length is due to the addition of a new sonar dome that is similar to the model found on the German Type 206.

Type 206/1300, and it has an improved sonar. Also, they got modernized in 2004-2009.

Story is getting more and more plausible.

[Kanastrous]

The best thing about it is that it doesn't much matter either way. Unless the Navy operating the submarine acknowledges that its boat was detected (which seems very unlikely to happen) Chavez may just as well have awakened that morning thinking what would make people more paranoid about *someone* (read: the US) messing with us, while simultaneously making us look good? Hey, how about they send over a submarine, we detect it and drive it off, no one can prove a thing one way or the other, and it's great free PR! *dials Navy commander* So, here's my idea...can you gin up a track or two to show at a press conference?

Or not. Who knows.

[Shroom Man 777]

Then again, if some nation (like the US) tried sneaking subs in the area for some reason or another and wanted to do it quietly, and nearly ran into some Venezuelan boats before leaving the area, the nation (like the US) wouldn't know if the Venezuelan boats actually knew or saw any submarines in the area. Chavez revealing this would make that nation go "yep, they saw our sub" and factor that into their calculations, whoever is doing this might (or might not) re-evaluate their strategy once they know that the Venezuelans know that they're sending subs there, and that by announcing this the Venezuelans also know that they know that the Venezuelans know.

Its like a prowler. If he sneaks around someone's house, and the front porch lights up, and he jumps into the bushes, and the homeowner goes out into the yard and looks around before going back into his house, the prowler might think that the homeowner still doesn't know better and he might reassure himself by going "nah, the homeowner probably didn't see anything, it's okay, he probably just thinks that he's hearing things" and maybe try again next time. But if the homeowner announces "hey last night I totally saw/nearly caught this prowler, who ended up hiding/running away/jumping into some bushes (like some gardening-happy pussy!)", and if the prowler heard that, it might give him something to think about. Like, he might reconsider changing hobbies from midnight gardening to, I dunno, girl scout cookie baking.

Especially if the homeowner has a gun and might exercise his second amendment rights on a prowler.

[Sea Skimmer]

So what? Subs get detected all the time, they are not invulnerable, its just that nations that aren't ruled by paranoid idiots usually don't think they gain some awesome prestige by announcing it.

[VarrusTheEthical]

I just find the article interesting because given the nature of submarines, you don't often see them in the news unless there's an accident. And the claim by Chavez is just plausible enough to not be dismissed out of hand. And to be fair, Chavez has been belligerent enough to warrant surveillance by countries with nuke boats who also happen to have Caribbean or South American interests interests. (US, Britain, France.)

This seems particularity plausible since Venezuela has a surprising capable navy with a pair of pretty modern German SSKs, Italian FFGs, and are in the process of acquiring some very modern Spanish built corvettes.

[Mr. Coffee]

You're missing the point, Varrus. Detecting a submarine isn't that huge a feat, and most people don't go about holding press conferences to boast about "Hey, look! We found a submarine!" The Venezuelan navy may very well have detected a sub, but where most anyone else would have just said "meh", because Chavez is a paranoid nutter that thinks CIA ninjas live in his closet, so he's gotta tell everyone about as if it's a really huge accomplishment.

[Simon_Jester]

It doesn't help, of course, that the CIA really has tried to screw with him before, to the point where his paranoia gets extra fuel and kicks into raging overdrive.

But yeah, I see what you guys mean. This is a plausible claim... and yet also one that only a few nations on Earth would even bother to make.

[LaCroix]

Venezuelan troop training was probably spied at, most probably by a nation that had tried to intervene before, has a history of intervening (badly) in the region, and is currently not on best terms with Venezuela.

Venezuela shouts out "Hey, we found you snooping at our backdoor - we can see you, but this time, you ran away before we did/could do something. Stop it or we might catch you next time."

Seems legit to me - what else should they do to? File a restraining order at the UN?

It's basically like the US telling they found out that there are people trying to build nuclear weapons somewhere - brining it up to the word public so people know who's messing around...

[Sea Skimmer]

This seems particularity plausible since Venezuela has a surprising capable navy with a pair of pretty modern German SSKs, Italian FFGs, and are in the process of acquiring some very modern Spanish built corvettes.

The Type 209s they have are from the mid 1970s, and I doubt they have been heavily upgraded to keep them modern, given that the plan is to replace them with new build Kilos from Russia in a few years. The naval capability is not that much really, considering the wealth of the country and its extensive offshore oil holdings. One good SSN would have a reasonable chance of wiping out the whole force; though to be fair you could say that about much stronger navies.

[LaCroix]

This seems particularity plausible since Venezuela has a surprising capable navy with a pair of pretty modern German SSKs, Italian FFGs, and are in the process of acquiring some very modern Spanish built corvettes.

The Type 209s they have are from the mid 1970s, and I doubt they have been heavily upgraded to keep them modern, given that the plan is to replace them with new build Kilos from Russia in a few years. The naval capability is not that much really, considering the wealth of the country and its extensive offshore oil holdings. One good SSN would have a reasonable chance of wiping out the whole force; though to be fair you could say that about much stronger navies.

See my earlier post - both upgraded in 1990, and one of them (the Sabalo) a second time in 2004-2009.

[VarrusTheEthical]

You're missing the point, Varrus. Detecting a submarine isn't that huge a feat, and most people don't go about holding press conferences to boast about "Hey, look! We found a submarine!" The Venezuelan navy may very well have detected a sub, but where most anyone else would have just said "meh", because Chavez is a paranoid nutter that thinks CIA ninjas live in his closet, so he's gotta tell everyone about as if it's a really huge accomplishment.

Oh, I'm quite sure that Chavez is making a big deal out of something that larger countries are quite indifferent to. Russia and China, for example, probably just assume there's a western SSN operating near or inside their territorial waters at any given time. I wasn't trying to say that Venezuela's alleged detection of an SSN is in any way a major international incident. The only point that I'm making is that this that I find it interesting, since you don't often hear about nuclear subs operating in the Caribbean.

[Simon_Jester]

On the other hand, the Russians and Chinese have better hardware and probably spot and run off snooping SSNs on a semi-regular basis (just as we presumably do around our own waters). For the Venezuelans it's likely to be harder and more impressive.

I picture it as Chavez jumping up and down and going "Look mommy! Mommy! Mommy! Look what I did! I patrolled my territorial waters!"

He's such a proud little third-grader, isn't he?

[evilsoup]

Why all the hate for Chavez? I mean I haven't looked that much into him, but as far as I can tell he has okay policies. Is it just that he's prone to gaffes?

[Rabid]

He has nationalized a lot of his country's natural resources, including the oil fields, a lot of them being exploited by US companies or subsidiaries of US companies at the time.
Historically, the US backed armed insurgencies and coups-d'etat in this geographical area for less than that...

The US tried at least one time that I know of to organize a Coup against him. I didn't succeed, of course.
Yes, his government may be corrupt, but no more no less than Brazil's or Colombia's - and unless I'm blind I don't see the US trying to kill their leaders for that... See : the guy himself might be bonkers, but his paranoia has legitimate ground to stand on, this you can't deny.

---
Now, it's obvious this declaration is a PR stunt, as much to the destination of the US than for internal consumption ; but it does not affect the credibility of the story itself - that a nuclear submarine has been detected off the coasts of Venezuela.

[Shroom Man 777]

Maybe the Chinese and the Russians with their sizable military assets, are more secure in such and would be less threatened by some SSN prowling in their waters, whereas small nations that can easily be bullied by bigger powers who habitually engage in such behavior have more cause to be alarmed and concerned, and perhaps loudly so?

Or, on the other hand...

lol chavez mang

his first name is hugo just leik that fatty in Lost

mang how did that fatty stay so fat while marooned on a fucking island maybe it was a hormonal thing lol

i think he should totally team up with some smarmy cocky swindler guy, and some bald paraplegic who can walk again, and try to escape the island

then he can win a lottery and an asteroid can fall on his workplace

am i rite?

[Lord Zentei]

Why all the hate for Chavez? I mean I haven't looked that much into him, but as far as I can tell he has okay policies. Is it just that he's prone to gaffes?

>Chavez
>okay policies

WTF.

You need to look into him more.

[Rabid]

Zentai, can you elaborate on this assertion, please ? I don't say you're wrong, but political matters are really subjective, so...

[evilsoup]

He has nationalized a lot of his country's natural resources, including the oil fields, a lot of them being exploited by US companies or subsidiaries of US companies at the time.
Historically, the US backed armed insurgencies and coups-d'etat in this geographical area for less than that...

The US tried at least one time that I know of to organize a Coup against him. I didn't succeed, of course.
Yes, his government may be corrupt, but no more no less than Brazil's or Colombia's - and unless I'm blind I don't see the US trying to kill their leaders for that... See : the guy himself might be bonkers, but his paranoia has legitimate ground to stand on, this you can't deny.

That was pretty much the extent of my knowledge of Chavez (plus I remember something about encouraging local community stuff?). OH, also I remember that he once bugged some political opponents' hotel rooms and broadcast the result on national television, that's kind of dodgy.

Who has he oppressed (as in: sending the secret police to beat them up, or using riot police to stop their peaceful demonstrations)? Apart from multinational corporations (and fuck those guys), who has he disinherited?

[Simon_Jester]

Why all the hate for Chavez? I mean I haven't looked that much into him, but as far as I can tell he has okay policies. Is it just that he's prone to gaffes?

It's mostly that he's one of those president-for-life types who like to wipe their ass with their country's constitution and make up for it with rah-rah bullshit fake-patriotism. He's got most of the unendearing traits of someone like George Bush, plus some extra ones to make him more annoying and dumb.

I mean, it takes a special kind of contemptible politico to come into office and push a new constitution with term limits (1999), then abolish the term limits as soon as you personally would have to step down because of them (2009). Chavez did that.

He doesn't lose points in my eyes for being anti-US, but neither does he gain any, and if you don't like him because of his opposition to the US and his loud proclamations of his own populist intentions, there's not a lot to like him for.