The Dear Leader is Dead!

[Zinegata]

EDIT: Yes I am am being a bit facetious but honestly the prospect of ANOTHER insane person with Nukes in easy shooting range of where I am isn't particularly appealing.

Like I said, jokes on the relative insanity of the North Korean leadership are funnier when you are outside the range of their nukes.

[Simon_Jester]

Re: Todeswind

Who were the other insane people with nukes?

[Shroom Man 777]

Thus my question can anyone confirm or deny the rumor that the named successor of Kim Jong's reported belief that he can talk to the dead and let the spirits of his dead ancestors guide his actions. Because if the next nuclear armed leader of NK believes that the voices in his head ought to be listened to I'm buying pills in case of radiation poisoning. I doubt the crazy fucker would aim for Fukuoka instead of Tokyo but I equally doubt the accuracy of North Korean missiles.

EDIT: Yes I am am being a bit facetious but honestly the prospect of ANOTHER insane person with Nukes in easy shooting range of where I am isn't particularly appealing.

How is listening and talking to dead ancestors any different from listening and talking to god? Particularly if these guise may, or may not, practice ancestor worship?

[Sea Skimmer]

Thus my question can anyone confirm or deny the rumor that the named successor of Kim Jong's reported belief that he can talk to the dead and let the spirits of his dead ancestors guide his actions. Because if the next nuclear armed leader of NK believes that the voices in his head ought to be listened to I'm buying pills in case of radiation poisoning. I doubt the crazy fucker would aim for Fukuoka instead of Tokyo but I equally doubt the accuracy of North Korean missiles.

EDIT: Yes I am am being a bit facetious but honestly the prospect of ANOTHER insane person with Nukes in easy shooting range of where I am isn't particularly appealing.

No idea on that rumor, I've never heard it and it seems seems rather unlikely. I could see it being merely said to justify his actions though; people will say all kinds of crazy things if they think it will help them get away with doing what they want.

As for buying potassium iodide pills, jokes aside I know, for nuclear warfare we should be clear that it is a waste of money. Potassium iodide protects against radioactive iodide uptake to the thyroid glands only. A nuclear reactor accident releases vast amounts of radioactive iodide making Potassium iodide treatments very useful in that event. A nuclear device going off will release some radioactive iodide but mainly the fallout will contain other more dangerous elements and if you are near the site of the blast, the fallout intensity will be high enough to demand you take physical shelter behind multiple feet of dense material. Its better to spend your money on a stockpile of sealed food and water, which also happens to be useful for other kinds of emergencies so that you can ride out the worst of the fallout under some kind of cover for a couple of weeks. Even being inside a wooden framed house will reduce heavy fallout exposure by about half. Potassium iodide will do no good if you are constantly being bombarded by direct gamma rays....

Fukuoka is within range of certain kinds of smaller North Korean missiles which would not reach Tokyo; but you could also face a threat in a nuclear war from fallout blown over from incinerated South Korean cities. Fukuoka is also at the center of one of Japans ground based air defense regions with Patriot missiles that have considerable capability to intercept ballistic missiles.

[K. A. Pital]

The younger Kim seems a better leader than his marasmatic God-Emperor dad. He's only 29. Perhaps he'll improve DPRK. I mean, what's the buzz with "ready the forces! WAR WAR WAR!" - why? Why should a 29 year old young leader be more prone to starting a war than a crazy old geezer who has nothing to lose?

[CaptainChewbacca]

The younger Kim seems a better leader than his marasmatic God-Emperor dad. He's only 29. Perhaps he'll improve DPRK. I mean, what's the buzz with "ready the forces! WAR WAR WAR!" - why? Why should a 29 year old young leader be more prone to starting a war than a crazy old geezer who has nothing to lose?

Because more than one North Korean general might not want to take orders from a twenty-nine year old and the war that breaks out may be a civil war fought with poorly-made nukes.

[Sea Skimmer]

The younger Kim seems a better leader than his marasmatic God-Emperor dad. He's only 29. Perhaps he'll improve DPRK. I mean, what's the buzz with "ready the forces! WAR WAR WAR!" - why? Why should a 29 year old young leader be more prone to starting a war than a crazy old geezer who has nothing to lose?

Maybe because of the sinking of Cheonan and attack on Yeonpyeong Island in the last two years? You know those blatant acts of war? The attacks on South Korea in 2010 are widely believed to have been ordered by Kim Jong Il to strengthen himself, and help establish Kim Jong Un as his successor. Its not impossible that Kim Jong Un could be forced into ordering some kind of attack to cement his power, or that a power struggle could ensure that saw him replaced by a different person who did the same thing.

[Winston Blake]

The younger Kim seems a better leader than his marasmatic God-Emperor dad. He's only 29. Perhaps he'll improve DPRK. I mean, what's the buzz with "ready the forces! WAR WAR WAR!" - why? Why should a 29 year old young leader be more prone to starting a war than a crazy old geezer who has nothing to lose?

I'd say there's a difference between 'getting ready for war' and 'getting ready for anything'. The former has connotations of being the first part of an active plan. The other implies just sitting and waiting on the porch - with a shotgun resting against the jamb.

[Shroom Man 777]

To be fair, North Korea has given the rest of the world a lot of reason to be anxious.

[K. A. Pital]

Maybe because of the sinking of Cheonan and attack on Yeonpyeong Island in the last two years? You know those blatant acts of war? The attacks on South Korea in 2010 are widely believed to have been ordered by Kim Jong Il to strengthen himself, and help establish Kim Jong Un as his successor.

Done by the deranged elder Kim. Which sort of underscores my point that the new Kim might be better than the old Kim. And perhaps it would be better to seek rapproachment now. New Kim might present it as "North Korea's great diplomatic triumph" and cement his power that way, after all.

Of course, the point on new Kim being deposed by some other power-hungry bureaucrat is valid. However, I don't think that would happen. DPRK is a society with deeply traditional Asian despoty roots, a monarchy of sorts. From what I heard of the mentality of the bureaucrats (even those who escaped), they still consider Kim-inheritance a valid concept.

[MKSheppard]

Wait a second, does North Korea have a proven nuke stockpile?

Right now, the people who really matter in policy debates and issues; who are drinking coffee furiously and downing cheap takeout pizza in situation rooms...are breathing sighs of relief that we ground forth in the late 1990s and early 2000s to deploy our present level of ABM. It removes one major variable from the equation here.

[Thanas]

I do not expect much to happen or change in North Korea. Neither geopolitics nor the economic situation will change overnight just because the elder Kim bought the farm.

[K. A. Pital]

I do not expect much to happen or change in North Korea. Neither geopolitics nor the economic situation will change overnight just because the elder Kim bought the farm.

"I do not expet much to happen or change in the USSR. Neither geopolitics nor the economic situation will change overnight just because Stalin bought the farm". Is that this sort of a position or am I missing something?

[Thanas]

I do not expect much to happen or change in North Korea. Neither geopolitics nor the economic situation will change overnight just because the elder Kim bought the farm.

"I do not expet much to happen or change in the USSR. Neither geopolitics nor the economic situation will change overnight just because Stalin bought the farm". Is that this sort of a position or am I missing something?

Please show how the USSR is comparable to North Korea.

[K. A. Pital]

Please show how the USSR is comparable to North Korea.

USSR during the Stalin years had a political system comparable to North Korea. It had a less devout and less controlled society, perhaps, which is why destalinization became possible, but you can't deny that the North Korean system is a hypertrophied version of Stalin's political system of autocratic rule with a tightly controlled bureaucracy.

[Thanas]

Please show how the USSR is comparable to North Korea.

USSR during the Stalin years had a political system comparable to North Korea. It had a less devout and less controlled society, perhaps, which is why destalinization became possible, but you can't deny that the North Korean system is a hypertrophied version of Stalin's political system of autocratic rule with a tightly controlled bureaucracy.

The USSR also was not starving its citizens on the scale as NK does and it also did not have a Government whose political system is basically "Bad Bad West" and "Glorious leader". I very much doubt the entrenched Elite of the NK system will agree to any such reforms and I doubt Kim's son is on the same level as Nikita Khrushchev.

The only way such reforms come is if they either do it over the long haul like China (doubtful considering they cannot sell as much to the west as China does) or if they abandon the current system, which is pretty unlikely to happen either.

[ComradeClaus]

i'm a bit surprised they said he died, rather than a euphemism like:

"Our Dear Leader recently Chose to return to Heaven, Trancending His Terrestrial Form & entrusting us to the Care of His son, Saintly Leader Kim Jong Un!"

btw, EncycDrama mentioned months ago that Il was dying from cancer. they seem to be pretty accurate.

i'm shocked at how many history significant people died this year.

[Thanas]

btw, EncycDrama mentioned months ago that Il was dying from cancer. they seem to be pretty accurate.

Please do not tell me you are serious.

[Broomstick]

Here's hoping the changing of the guard gets the ball rolling on some reforms; Jong-un's fairly young and has apparently been educated abroad, so chances are he knows there are some fairly major problems with his father's policies.

On the other hand, he's on top of the heap with all the material comforts imaginable – maybe he won't give a shit about the masses.

Or maybe the military will figure out it might be nice to have some foreign exchange and diplomatic goodwill with which to buy some modern equipment and start opening up the economy, which would be far from the worst possible outcome either.

Or maybe, as long as they get adequate food, the military will continue the present system and fuck the masses.

I suspect that joke would be funnier if you live outside the range of the North's nuclear arsenal.

Wait a second, does North Korea have a proven nuke stockpile?

They certainly some sort of nuke. About WWII level. They have definitely tested one. Quite scary enough, especially for those within potential range of such a device. The details are, of course, top secret within North Korea and they aren't total incompetents so it's unlikely anyone outside North Korea knows for sure what they do or don't have.

Yep, the Norks are definitely in the nuclear club

They probably have a few crude but working devices by most estimates I've read. The bigger question is their ability to deliver the nukes. They probably can't hit Washington DC with one, but their missile tests have shown that hitting Japan or South East Asia may not be impossible for them.

They definitely can't hit DC. There is some speculation they could hit the US West Coast. More plausible is a possible extreme range reaching Hawaii or the westernmost parts of Alaska Use those datapoints to draw a circle to give potential maximum ranges in Asia and the south Pacific.

More likely, however, is the capacity to reliably hit South Korea (definite) and Japan (quite likely). I don't know how the South Koreans would react, but I can't imagine the Japanese reacting with anything but boiling rage to nuke attack on the territory. An attack on either would be a proxy attack on the US, as both are allies and we're committed to defend Japan even more so than most allies.

The big questions on that front are how many devices do they have, how reliable are they, and how reliably can they be delivered?

If they DO nuke someone, the next question is whether the retaliation would be nuclear or not. There are several nations with nukes that can reliably deliver reliable warhead pretty much anywhere in the world desired, and both the US and China are in that group. Either one of those could obliterate North Korea as a viable nation, but it would entail killing millions in the process. That's sort of getting into new territory, I'm not sure how the rest of the world would react to that. The last time we had war go nuclear it was limited because the US ran out of nukes after two. This time, supply will not be a limitation. Limiting it will require human restraint, which can not always be relied upon.

Of course, I sincerely hope THAT scenario just doesn't arise.

Thus my question can anyone confirm or deny the rumor that the named successor of Kim Jong's reported belief that he can talk to the dead and let the spirits of his dead ancestors guide his actions. Because if the next nuclear armed leader of NK believes that the voices in his head ought to be listened to I'm buying pills in case of radiation poisoning. I doubt the crazy fucker would aim for Fukuoka instead of Tokyo but I equally doubt the accuracy of North Korean missiles.

Thing is, “talking to dead ancestors” isn't crazier than any other religion. Look at the mess we've had with Middle Eastern nutters listening to the voices in their heads.

Your point about the aiming problems is quite valid, of course. They most likely have WWII type tech, which isn't the precision-aiming-watch-the-nose-camera of modern “smart” missiles. It's not like Japan didn't have lots of problems this year anyway, what with March's Triple Catastrophe.

EDIT: Yes I am am being a bit facetious but honestly the prospect of ANOTHER insane person with Nukes in easy shooting range of where I am isn't particularly appealing.

My sympathies. I do think the recommendation to stockpile food and water as a general buffer against disaster is a good idea for anyone, but in Japan, definitely a reasonable precaution.

The younger Kim seems a better leader than his marasmatic God-Emperor dad. He's only 29. Perhaps he'll improve DPRK. I mean, what's the buzz with "ready the forces! WAR WAR WAR!" - why? Why should a 29 year old young leader be more prone to starting a war than a crazy old geezer who has nothing to lose?

Because more than one North Korean general might not want to take orders from a twenty-nine year old and the war that breaks out may be a civil war fought with poorly-made nukes.

^ This.

Civil war fought with crappy nukes.... well, isn't that a nightmare scenario? Horrific for the Nork people, who of course will suffer horribly in any war (hell, they can suffer horribly in peacetime!) and not fun for whoever gets their fallout.

Of course, the point on new Kim being deposed by some other power-hungry bureaucrat is valid. However, I don't think that would happen. DPRK is a society with deeply traditional Asian despoty roots, a monarchy of sorts. From what I heard of the mentality of the bureaucrats (even those who escaped), they still consider Kim-inheritance a valid concept.

North Korea is a Divine Kingship, but expressed in communist/atheist terms. The veneration of the Great Leader, even past death, is nothing more or less than worship. North Korea's government has more in common with the Pharaohs of Ancient Egypt than modern forms of government. Yes, the “Great Successor” may wind up a figurehead, but there will definitely be a Kim as the public face as that legitimizes the power behind the throne.

I do not expect much to happen or change in North Korea. Neither geopolitics nor the economic situation will change overnight just because the elder Kim bought the farm.

True. However, once the new power structure has congealed and consolidated things could change. Or, if the government fractures, there could be a civil war in North Korea. It wouldn't happen immediately, but I see at least potential bad outcomes in the near future. Just because a certain stability has been maintained for the past half century doesn't mean it will continue indefinitely.

Oh, and the morning news reports that at least one missile was fired off from North Korea this morning. Apparently landed in the Sea of Japan. Sure, business as usual.... And really, for the Norks firing off a missile for no damn apparent reason IS sort of business as usual.

[weemadando]

An interesting article from a few days ago that gives a bit more of a look at how broken North Korea is. Selling your own people into slavery to get hard currency and covering it all up.

Editor's note: The staff at CNN.com has been intrigued by the journalism of VICE, an independent media company and Web site based in Brooklyn, New York. The reports, which are produced solely by VICE, reflect a very transparent approach to journalism, where viewers are taken along on every step of the reporting process. We believe this unique reporting approach is worthy of sharing with our CNN.com readers.
Siberia (VICE.COM) -- Kim Jong Il, the absolute dictator of North Korea, made a very rare trip outside the protection of his own borders this past August, albeit on a heavily armored private train. The reason for the trip was a meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev to talk about forming deeper trade and labor alliances between the two countries. This would all seem quite normal and boring if it weren't for the fact that a) nothing is ever normal when it comes to North Korea and, b) Vice happened to also be in the Amur region at the exact same time as Kim Jong Il. But we were there to track down a different kind of North Korean in Siberia: slaves.
We had heard through freelance journalist Simon Ostrovsky that North Korea was outsourcing its labor force to work in Siberia as a way to generate much needed hard currency for Kim Jong Il's cash-strapped regime. He reported that camps built to actually look like miniature North Korean villages peppered the remote regions of Russia's Far East and Siberia. He also reported on the lengthy terms of their labor "contracts" and insanely harsh working conditions. So we sent a Vice crew along with Simon to see if we could find some of these camps and talk to some of the North Koreans working there.
Most of the camps are very inaccessible so we spent a lot of time on the Trans-Siberian railway to get to the small towns we would use as bases for excursions deep into the forest, looking for work crews. When we finally found the North Korean loggers, their stories were astounding: 10-year labor requirements, living and working out in the bush, Dickensian working conditions, squalid living quarters, inedible food and the majority of their wages garnished and sent back to North Korea to "help the quality of life there improve."
It was hard to believe that labor camps of this sort still exist in Siberia in 2011, but we saw them with our own eyes. Most of the workers were over 40, meaning that they likely had families back in the home country. So if they tried to escape (many still do) the North Korean government could punish them by sending them to concentration camps or enslaving their families in other work camps.
See the rest of North Korean Labor Camps at VICE.COM
When we found out that Kim Jong Il was in the same region making deals for even more of these types of labor arrangements we knew that we had to show what was going on: a dictator trying to sell more of his people, to make more money, to build more nuclear weapons, that he can use to blackmail the West into giving North Korea more aid, thus enabling him to maintain his regime. And this more than anything exemplifies the absurdity of the modern condition. Or at least the bull goose lunacy that is going on in Russia's Far East.

[ComradeClaus]

Please do not tell me you are serious.

why doubt their accuracy? their article said he was dying from cancer several months ago. he just died.

their steve jobs article said he was dying of cancer [though they claim it was from aids] jobs recently died of cancer.

they also were the first site to reveal what happened to ghaddify... which was confirmed by mainstream news sites [huffpo, cbs] several days later. as well as shown on tosh.o

yes, they replaced their germany article w/ a swastica .gif [FAIL] & they're politically incorrect, but they are right more often than tabloids.

[Mayabird]

Kim Jong-Il was a fatass who didn't exercise or take care of himself and had a stroke two years ago. Everybody's been waiting for his heart to give out since. He didn't need cancer to kill him any more than any extremely unhealthy fatass anywhere else in the world does.

What kind of idiot reads Encyclopedia Dramatica anyway?

[Thanas]

What kind of idiot reads Encyclopedia Dramatica anyway?

That somebody would treat it as a news source is even more puzzling to me.

[Skgoa]

Kim Jong Il is dead. yay. What does that mean for NK's future? Socio-economic liberalization?
In the past, we have seen totalitarian regimes change their ways after the death of the old leader. But in this case, I don't think we are going to see such a big and immediate change. Absolute central authority seems to be the only thing keeping that country functional. And I don't think China would like an even more unstable NK right next to them.

[K. A. Pital]

China's influence on the DPRK elites is rather limited. If DPRK's elites start internal reforms, China won't be able to stop them.