The Dear Leader is Dead!

[CaptainChewbacca]

Just saw on the news, NK fired a missile off its East coast, nobody's entirely sure why.

[Skgoa]

China's influence on the DPRK elites is rather limited. If DPRK's elites start internal reforms, China won't be able to stop them.

I was thinking more in the direction of "what if the population risen up?" China can't want that to happen.

[Broken]

Seems the world may be a slightly better place with Kim Jong Il out of the picture, assuming North Korea doesn't collapse in a power struggle/civil war between the chosen successor and the generals or a military exercise/minor strike on South Korea/Japan/USA to cement Kim Jong Un's hold on power that spirals out of control, all with crude nuclear devices added into the mix for spice. Hopefully this leads to something better for the people of North Korea, but I'm not going to hold out any hope on that front.

[The Yosemite Bear]

my comment was that one of the points that was discovered via Wikileaks is that the younger generation of those in power appear to have a love of Clapton and Bowie, and giving access to Western Rock music appears to be a bargaining chip for stabalizing north korea.

[K. A. Pital]

China's influence on the DPRK elites is rather limited. If DPRK's elites start internal reforms, China won't be able to stop them.

I was thinking more in the direction of "what if the population risen up?" China can't want that to happen.

DPRK's population won't "rise up" - social controls are immense.

[Simon_Jester]

Just saw on the news, NK fired a missile off its East coast, nobody's entirely sure why.

I would very much like to hear what manner of missile this was. Long range ballistic, short range ballistic, antiship...?

It seems to have been a test-firing, or something would have gone bang by now. and possibly a planned one since it takes some time to prepare a missile. Or they might have fired it as a 'shot across the bows' because in their minds they need to warn off foreigners.

[Shroom Man 777]

Maybe they were giving Kim a Viking funeral. With rockets.

DPRK's population won't "rise up" - social controls are immense.

One would hope that the controls would make the populace just simmering to rise up and make their own way. But, then again, that may not be always the case with people. North Korea could've "succeeded" in that horrible respect.

[Simon_Jester]

Some people compare North Korea to the divine monarchies of Egypt and Mesopotamia, with the king as a living god.

Usually, dynastic change in those countries comes from an invasion; you don't get peasants spontaneously deciding to rise up and declare a republic.

[CaptHawkeye]

Who *would* invade North Korea though? What's in it for them other than inheriting a shit-pot of a state with a totally castrated culture and zero infrastructure beyond the capital?

[DarkArk]

There are several nations with nukes that can reliably deliver reliable warhead pretty much anywhere in the world desired, and both the US and China are in that group.

Quick question. I thought that China didn't have much in the way of long-range missiles, and only had 50 or so that could reliably hit the continental US.

Like I said, jokes on the relative insanity of the North Korean leadership are funnier when you are outside the range of their nukes.

Quite. I was living in Fukuoka when the South Korean warship was sunk, put a damper on the whole thing when I realized that was only 600 miles away.

Fukuoka is within range of certain kinds of smaller North Korean missiles which would not reach Tokyo; but you could also face a threat in a nuclear war from fallout blown over from incinerated South Korean cities. Fukuoka is also at the center of one of Japans ground based air defense regions with Patriot missiles that have considerable capability to intercept ballistic missiles.

And here I was hoping Fukuoka would have been off the radar mostly. I'm rather glad I didn't know this when I was living there. Of course now living in the US city closest to N Korea.

[Pelranius]

There are several nations with nukes that can reliably deliver reliable warhead pretty much anywhere in the world desired, and both the US and China are in that group.

Quick question. I thought that China didn't have much in the way of long-range missiles, and only had 50 or so that could reliably hit the continental US.

That's pretty much the case.

I doubt South Korea is going to enact regime change (huge reconstruction costs if nothing else), and if they won't, then China won't either (again military and economic costs) short of the North Koreans invading Manchuria.

[Simon_Jester]

Who *would* invade North Korea though? What's in it for them other than inheriting a shit-pot of a state with a totally castrated culture and zero infrastructure beyond the capital?

Don't ask me; I'm not a North Korean general.

There are several nations with nukes that can reliably deliver reliable warhead pretty much anywhere in the world desired, and both the US and China are in that group.

Quick question. I thought that China didn't have much in the way of long-range missiles, and only had 50 or so that could reliably hit the continental US.

Since we just recently found out the Chinese have a boatload of tunnel networks to (potentially) hide missiles in, the exact size of the Chinese long range nuclear arsenal is very much in question. It could be fifty or so, or it could be a few hundred. Either way, they have reasonably reliable warheads and global range- North Korea has neither.

Fukuoka is within range of certain kinds of smaller North Korean missiles which would not reach Tokyo; but you could also face a threat in a nuclear war from fallout blown over from incinerated South Korean cities. Fukuoka is also at the center of one of Japans ground based air defense regions with Patriot missiles that have considerable capability to intercept ballistic missiles.

And here I was hoping Fukuoka would have been off the radar mostly. I'm rather glad I didn't know this when I was living there. Of course now living in the US city closest to N Korea.

[amateur analysis follows]

The North Koreans aren't going to be able to carpet-bomb anyone, though. Knowing the Japanese have at least marginal ability to intercept short range ballistic missiles, their smart move would be to aim those missiles at a handful of important targets- particularly ports and airfields, since Japan can't directly meddle with North Korea unless it can move ships and planes out of the home islands.

Of course, their aim is potentially randomized by not being able to hit the broad side of a mountain; on the other hand, their warheads are probably not powerful enough to flatten areas a dozen kilometers across the way large fusion bombs might.

And Seattle? Well, you can take some comfort in the fact that the US's one and only ABM site is positioned where it might be able to shoot down North Korean missiles before they land on you. Also that their aim is likely to suck even worse at intercontinental ranges, so if they aim for Seattle they might miss the city entirely. In which case I think your troubles are about as bad as those the Japanese had with evacuating the zone around Fukushima, at worst.

[SpaceMarine93]

Anyone want to place bets on how quickly the whole place falls apart? I bet about two years.

[Korgeta]

http://mutenroushi.deviantart.com/galle ... e#/d3h7on6
So it was a heart attack and not guile that saved the day after all...a tad anti climatic, anyway it does possibly complicate a few things i was sorting myself with a travel group to North Korea (Yes i am crazy) but seeing how this happed may mean taking a back seat and what happens next. As for politcally I think kim's son is in the lion's den here and those who were part of kim's inner circle are going to exploit his lack of experince, its likely we might see a more aggressive N Korea in the future but for now we may get a stronger short term international cooperation as nobody wants to see the state collapse, not just the neighbouring countries but Europe as well, who knows how the Asian stock markets could affect the Euro if we do get a meltdown of events.

[LadyTevar]

I understand that the "Great Leader' put his sister and brother-in-law in high positions the same time he named his successor. I think he was hoping his sister would help guide his son.

[mr friendly guy]

China's influence on the DPRK elites is rather limited. If DPRK's elites start internal reforms, China won't be able to stop them.

Considering China did try and convince the North Koreans to undergo reforms and NK rebuffed them, I think they won't care too much if its economic reform.

China's influence on the DPRK elites is rather limited. If DPRK's elites start internal reforms, China won't be able to stop them.

I was thinking more in the direction of "what if the population risen up?" China can't want that to happen.

The only rising up will most probably be military personnel jockeying for power. The civillian population are too brainwashed to have sufficient number to do that.

Anyone want to place bets on how quickly the whole place falls apart? I bet about two years.

Define fall apart and I might be willing. Do you mean descends into civil war? Becomes even more poverty stricken than it is?

[Sea Skimmer]

I would very much like to hear what manner of missile this was. Long range ballistic, short range ballistic, antiship...?

Reports says NK-06 tactical ballistic missile, improvement of the North Korean SS-21 clone. My bet would be that some unit fired it in his honor, but the training was already planned to some degree. Its not unusual for them to fire one.

[Akhlut]

The only rising up will most probably be military personnel jockeying for power. The civillian population are too brainwashed to have sufficient number to do that.

Most of them are starving and have been doing so for decades, too. Starving people aren't great at toppling military regimes.

[MKSheppard]

Who *would* invade North Korea though? What's in it for them other than inheriting a shit-pot of a state with a totally castrated culture and zero infrastructure beyond the capital?

You've hit upon the nail and why South Korea and China are...hesitant to take more proactive methods with North Korea; despite the huge headaches Norkland causes both.

[TC Pilot]

Anyone want to place bets on how quickly the whole place falls apart? I bet about two years.

People were predicting the exact same thing after Kim Il-Sung died in '94. Look how that turned out.

No one quite seems to know what's going to happen next. Kim Jong-Un is basically a complete unknown (BBC radio today was calling him a "20-something," since we don't even know when he was born), so whether or not he has what it takes to hold power, to say nothing of what he actually wants to do should he get hold of that power, is anyone's guess.

[Zinegata]

I've heard reports from CNN that NK State Media is portraying Kim Jong-Un as some kind of genius thinker. But given how much they embelished Kim Jong-Il's scholastic achievements, I'm gonna take that with a grain of salt.

[jannary]

i'm wondering who will replace his position

[Nephtys]

I believe they're calling the kid 'The Young General', taking a (at least temporary) from the Adjective Leader series.

But hey. He should be happy he's in charge, instead of having suffered through Attempted Disneyland like his brother

[Norseman]

I believe they're calling the kid 'The Young General', taking a (at least temporary) from the Adjective Leader series.

But hey. He should be happy he's in charge, instead of having suffered through Attempted Disneyland like his brother

Young General! The Brilliant Comrade! The Great Successor!

No really those are among his titles.

[Count Chocula]

It might have been nice for him to find a new job, but it is always tragic when human life comes to an end.

I just hope this one small tragedy doesn't lead to another big tragedy. Let's hope the people of North Korea indeed do become better off, so at least something good will come from this.

it is always tragic when human life comes to an end.Are you fucking kidding? Tell me you're kidding. LIE TO ME and say you're kidding. Kim Jong Il should have been shot by his countrymen 50 years ago. I pray that the apple falls far, far from the poisoned tree upon which it grew. Maybe the SRBM launch was an ejaculation of hope and change.