UK committed to Falklands sovereignty, pledges Cameron

[Sea Skimmer]

Libya. Where most of the world was baying for something to be done? Where they were taking action against a madman massacring his own people? Where intervening was in the eyes of most nations and people unambiguously the act of a good guy?

The western world wanted something done, that certainly did not extend to the less developed parts of the globe. You might recall just about everyone in Africa was against it, but they didn't matter just like opinions that will not be backed by actions wont matter in this implausible situation.

Comprehensively defeating the attack and then sinking the Argentine Navy (unambiguously military) rather than bombing airbases (which almost inevitably will result in civilian casualties, and given that the UK can and likely will trash the Argentine airforce in short order providing they have access to the airfield on the Falklands, could be seen/spun as unnecessary to the public) gives the impression that they could have been more punitive but chose to be charitable, which sends a rather nice message to everyone, especially the countries presently siding with Argentina.

First of all, some of the airfields in question are in the literal middle of nowhere and even the ones that aren't are unlikely to cause significant civilian losses. Secondly, nations are siding with Argentina to settle this peacefully, not start another war. Back in 1982 the only people willing to back Argentina in South America to any worthwhile degree was Peru's own questionable government. The idea that a military air base flying operations against your own soil is not unambiguously military is just plain absurd BTW.

If you think politics matters that much, then sinking the Argentinian fleet is the WORST option anyway because it will kill far far more people then blowing up parked aircraft, by a factor of 10 easily. Blowing up parked planes could conceivably kill nobody, its likely to only kill dozens or a hundred or so at worst. In fact back in 1982 the worst press the British got in the war was torpedoing General Belgrano because she was not a threat at that moment to the British task force and over three hundred men died in the process, half of all Argentinian combat deaths in the entire war. Destroy the Argentinian air force in one swift blow and the Argentinian navy will do exactly what it did in 1982, run the hell home and hide.

[Zaune]

The one element I left out of my previous post is the UK always essentially has a destroyer or frigate stationed in the area equipped with a helicopter that can be armed with anti-ship missiles and could potentially target the Argentine landing craft. While this is something that Argentina can presumably deal with if the UK Eurofighters are taken out, it is something else to worry about and further complicates the idea of a true surprise attack.

Particularly since Mount Pleasant with its airfield is somewhat inland, Argentina taking out the aircraft with special forces would be far easier said than done. If they used paratroopers, the problem is those paratroopers are effectively going to be taken away for potential use when the rest of the invasion force arrives. (Argentina only has so many paratrooper in the first place.)

A key point again is that Argentina's amphibious capability is not sufficient, and any naval invasion force from Argentina would be substantially outnumbered by the British defenders. If Argentina tries to requisition a bunch of fishing boats in addition for its invasion, the UK is going to get tipped off and fly in more Eurofighters and/or men.

It might not take a whole paratrooper battalion to do the job. A couple of blokes with man-portable SAM tubes to pick off a pair of Typhoons as they took off or came in to land, a mortar team to blow holes in the runway and trash the rest of the airfield and a couple of snipers to keep the garrison pinned down for a bit; two to four fully loaded RHIBs, maybe? They'd almost certainly be killed or captured to a man of course, but if they were smart and lucky enough to get to within about half a mile of the airbase undetected they might buy perhaps twelve hours of air superiority, and put a dent in our ground forces to boot.
That's twelve hours to throw every aircraft they've got that can launch an Exocet at the frigate (not sure how many of those they've got left, but they only have to get lucky once), send their ASW assets out to keep the SSN tied up and cram as many troops and vehicles into requisitioned merchant ships as humanly possible. Not enough to guarantee we wouldn't eventually claw the islands back, maybe, but enough to force the Cabinet to think very hard about whether they were worth the price in blood and treasure.

[Alkaloid]

The western world wanted something done, that certainly did not extend to the less developed parts of the globe. You might recall just about everyone in Africa was against it, but they didn't matter just like opinions that will not be backed by actions wont matter in this implausible situation.

Except the Arab league, who were very insistent that something be done, as long as they didn't have to do it.

First of all, some of the airfields in question are in the literal middle of nowhere and even the ones that aren't are unlikely to cause significant civilian losses. Secondly, nations are siding with Argentina to settle this peacefully, not start another war. Back in 1982 the only people willing to back Argentina in South America to any worthwhile degree was Peru's own questionable government. The idea that a military air base flying operations against your own soil is not unambiguously military is just plain absurd BTW.

The political situation has changed since the 80's though. The Brits have recently been involved in two wars where fuckups that resulted in numerous civilian deaths didn't happen, they were and are practically routine. Even non significant civilian casualties are going to be paraded around and rubbed in peoples faces because they are a much more volatile issue now than they used to be. And you and I are aware that airbases fly combat missions and are staffed by military and civilian staff, and that they cannot be attacked separately, but most people aren't. All they will hear is 'bombed Argentina, killed civilians,' and that is what is important in politics now, what people hear, because they can hear and react almost instantly before anyone can clarify what actually happened, so Britain need to be damn sure they don't hit any civilian targets if they can help it because it won't matter that it was a legitimate attack, it will sound like it wasn't to the uninformed ore barely informed, and that is how Argentina will push it.

By the same token, it makes attacking the Navy, military ships carrying weapons in the middle of the ocean, with virtually nil chance of accidentally killing anyone not on the crew of the ship, much easier, because while people are used to fuckups killing civilians it means that being able to say we hit this very clearly military target, staffed by uniformed personell, and o most people that actually looks impressive and responsible now, even though it really is run of the mill because they are so used to wars being nebulous and targets being difficult to identify.

[madd0ct0r]

well, by that logic people shouldn't still be annoyyed about the General Belgrano, but they are.

Wasn't the argument at the time along the lines off "The ship couldn't do anything to us, AND was sailing away from us, so torpeoing it was a cowardly, dammed Un-British way to act." ect.

[Alkaloid]

In the 80's yes. Now it looks fucking awesome that you actually worked out who the enemy was before you started shooting.

Really, how many people are still angry about the Falklands that weren't there or family of someone killed or injured, except the Argentinians?

[madd0ct0r]

people who use it as another tile for the dancefloor on Thatchers grave.

means to an end really.

[Omega18]

It might not take a whole paratrooper battalion to do the job. A couple of blokes with man-portable SAM tubes to pick off a pair of Typhoons as they took off or came in to land, a mortar team to blow holes in the runway and trash the rest of the airfield and a couple of snipers to keep the garrison pinned down for a bit; two to four fully loaded RHIBs, maybe? They'd almost certainly be killed or captured to a man of course, but if they were smart and lucky enough to get to within about half a mile of the airbase undetected they might buy perhaps twelve hours of air superiority, and put a dent in our ground forces to boot.

That's twelve hours to throw every aircraft they've got that can launch an Exocet at the frigate (not sure how many of those they've got left, but they only have to get lucky once), send their ASW assets out to keep the SSN tied up and cram as many troops and vehicles into requisitioned merchant ships as humanly possible. Not enough to guarantee we wouldn't eventually claw the islands back, maybe, but enough to force the Cabinet to think very hard about whether they were worth the price in blood and treasure.

Getting those individuals with those SAMs into position is vastly easier said than done, especially with the open terrain in the area.

I'm very skeptical that the mortar is going to blow holes in the runway which would really keep it entirely out of operation that long. At a minimum I suspect you're talking about a 120mm heavy mortar over 300 pounds which would not be easy to arrange to get into position.

The really massive problem with your scenario is the last one though. The Argentine requisitioning the kind of merchant shipping you're talking about without the UK getting wind of it and to some degree reacting in advance would be one of (if not the) the absolutely most stunning British intel failures ever. That kind of activity simply leaves too much public info for the British to notice. You would expect the UK to at least temporarily fly in more aircraft and troops in response, (while upping general security for the airfield) and possibly move an additional sub into the area for good measure.

It should also be noted that the Argentine ASW currently sucks and its very implausible that could keep the UK SSN bottled up. (An underlying issue is the Argentine shouldn't know where the UK sub actually is as of the start of the scanario.)

[CJvR]

Except the Arab league, who were very insistent that something be done, as long as they didn't have to do it.

IIRC the Arab League started complaining the moment the first bomb dropped - as expected.

[CJvR]

Argentina doesn't have much to bring to the table either, they never rebuilt after the war.

Code: Select all

4 FF MEKO-360 
6 FF MEKO-140 
3 Cr Drummond 
1 SS Type 209
2 SS TR1700
8 FAC of various types
1 Type 42 converted to transport
6 LCVP + 8 other landing crafts

11 Super Etandard
34 SkyHawk (various types)
30 Mirage (various types)

[Pelranius]

Except the Arab league, who were very insistent that something be done, as long as they didn't have to do it.

IIRC the Arab League started complaining the moment the first bomb dropped - as expected.

To be fair, the Arab League Secretary General backtracked pretty quickly (probably had to pick up a new cellphone after the shouting from the Qataris and Jordanians busted the old one).