RAR : 2012!China sent back to the Boxer Rebellion

[Rabid]

Inspired by this RAR :

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=153002

Scenario :

The People's Republic of China AND the Republic of China (Taiwan), as of the 1st of January, 2012, in their respective full territorial integrity, are transported back in time to the 1st of July 1900, in the middle of the historical period known as “The Boxer Rebellion”.

In the same way, China and Taiwan from the 1st of July 1900 are propelled forward in time to the 1st of January, 2012.

Both timelines are set in their respective alternate universes different from our own. Not time paradoxes.

The mineral resources are unchanged : 2012!China, transported back to 1900, still has the same mineral resources it had in 2012 and no more. 1900!China enjoy the same mineral resources its soil hosted at the time.
Climate and crops magically adapt to the different season.


What happen to China and the rest of the world in both time periods ?


Note : This thread is a challenge to SDN to see if it can come upon a RAR and not shit it up as described in this thread.

[Purple]

Here is a question. How much does modern China rely on imports for supporting its infrastructure, military and population? And how much of that could it make up for with rampant imperialism thanks to having said military and infrastructure that is over a century ahead of its time? One thought that strikes me is the PRC basically occupying half the world Britain style only to have it be useless to them since the infrastructure to exploit it to produce the things they need would take decades and trillions of $ to develop.

There would definitively have to be a massive restructuring of much of their society to say the least. If for nothing else than for the fact that their largest source of income, the export market just evaporated.

[Rabid]

- China produce a lot of Coal, Oil and Natural gas, the only thing preventing them from exporting it is their gargantuan internal needs of the stuff.

- China produce most of its own armament, however its modern airplane production is still somewhat dependent on Russia : they still lack at this time the necessary experience in material sciences to make reliable high-performance jet engines (which they buy from Russia ATM), even if the J-20 program and its associated R&D efforts is making them advance in the field at a tremendous rate. However, they can still produce themselves a number of aircraft that are far, far superior to anything the people of the 1900s can ever hope to build (duh ! The Wrights Bros haven't even flown yet !) even with reduced performances due to less powerful and less reliable motors compared to modern standards...

- I don't know the particulars (it would be cool if someone more versed in the Geopolitic of China could help), but I think China would be able to feed its own population itself if cut from the "outside" world. However, I don't really know how the crop outputs would be affected by the scarcity of oil and oil-derived products.

- China and Taiwan produce most of the world's electronic. They may not be able to build the latest stuff on their own, but they sure as hell will be capable to build on their own 1980's-1990's level stuff.

- Concerning trade : don't forget that they instantly become the world leader in production capacity, even functioning at a fraction of their current output, and still have a lot of stuff to sell to the rest of the world, even if trade itself would become a bit more difficult than today ; if only because there would be no harbors in the outside world able to process [ur=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Container_shipl]container ships[/url].



For now, I'm more interested in what happen in the first few days : China during the transition was in the middle of a War with most of the European Empires.

Also, don't forget that the Chinese aren't the colonial type, and prefer to trade whenever they can instead of waging war.

[Purple]

- Concerning trade : don't forget that they instantly become the world leader in production capacity, even functioning at a fraction of their current output, and still have a lot of stuff to sell to the rest of the world, even if trade itself would become a bit more difficult than today ; if only because there would be no harbors in the outside world able to process [ur=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Container_shipl]container ships[/url].

The issue is not only how to sell stuff as much as who to sell it to. Even if we handed the Chinese magic ports that can dock container ships and magically had every single person in the world of the 1900's buy Chinese stuff there still just ain't enough people to make up for the world market today. And lets be honest, that ain't happening. And as a massive part of their cash income comes from foreign exports. The moment that dries up like it inevitably will in this situation we are looking at mass unemployment, inflation and general economic collapse. After all, a massive part of their economy just went down the drain.

Also, don't forget that the Chinese aren't the colonial type, and prefer to trade whenever they can instead of waging war.

That is why I said Britain style. I was referring to things like India where they basically set up a vassalage style relationship. I can see China extracting protection money from Europeans to allow them to trade with their colonies for example. And the British sure won't be happy about the situation anyway.

[mr friendly guy]

China is net exporter AFAIK of food, although there is imbalance in the type of food. For example, according to a recent Xinhua article in the economics section.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china ... 357072.htm

Agricultural ministry data shows the country is now 100 percent self-sufficient in production of the three staple grains -- rice, wheat and corn.

However, domestic production of some other agricultural products, including soybean and mung bean, fall short of meeting demand.

BTW what happens to the Republic of Mongolia / Outer Mongolia which was part of the Qing dynasty at this time. According to your OP all of Chinese territory in 1900 is transported to an alternative future in 2012, so that includes Outer Mongolia. However only the modern PRC and ROC is transported back. At this point Outer Mongolia is a separate country. So does a magical lake fill up where Outer Mongolia is, or does it become just empty land with no people?

Personally a more interesting dynamic to discuss, is the relationship between 2012 China and 1900 Japan. China will most probably prevent Japan occupying Korea in this time period. Its like they have 5 years of prep time, not that they need it. Missiles flying harmlessly over Japanese airspace will send the message that they are outclassed.

As for China's relationship with Europe, I can imagine them selling weapons to both sides during the war that will likely still happen. They of course need to start doing deals in the middle east to secure that oil supply, which will be cheaper since there will be less demand from the West. IIRC at this point, the US was the largest exporter of oil.

There will of course have to be lots of problems, as they have to suddenly start boosting domestic consumption. Most probably via subsidies. If they can develop the middle east etc and get oil up and running they can breathe a bit easier. The oil will be cheaper eventually as there is less demand.

[mr friendly guy]

Oh, imagine the look on the British Empire's face when Hong Kong changes.

I imagine this will push closer integration between the special administrative regions of HK and Macau and the Mainland, since they really have no one else to turn to with the required technology and resources to maintain a standard of living they are accustomed to.

Taiwan will most probably agree to some type of arrangement with the PRC, with the Guomindang being in power after a recent election win and the fact, the US of the 1900s won't give a shit, nor will they be able to act. Most probably some type of special administrative arrangment where Taiwan has a high degree of autonomy, and cool Taiwan electronics becoming available to the PRC.

The PRC would most probably have to come to some sort of arrangement with the British. Don't interfere in your sphere of influence (because frankly British power will still wane without the need for Chinese intervention), and in return we buy stuff from Australia. The PRC would most probably need to tell the Australians were to mine that iron ore. Plus that strange yellow substance will be nice. Just be sure to have protective gear.

[Rabid]

BTW what happens to the Republic of Mongolia / Outer Mongolia which was part of the Qing dynasty at this time. According to your OP all of Chinese territory in 1900 is transported to an alternative future in 2012, so that includes Outer Mongolia. However only the modern PRC and ROC is transported back. At this point Outer Mongolia is a separate country. So does a magical lake fill up where Outer Mongolia is, or does it become just empty land with no people?

Hmmm... Well, it's more like all Chinese territories in 2012 (PRC + ROC) are transported back to 1900, and the corresponding territories from 1900 are transported to 2012.
I don't know if this answer your question.

Just to know, wasn't Tibet under British "Protection" at the time ?


Concerning the relationship between 2012!China and 1900!Japan : How will Beijing's policies be likely affected by the Japanese's occupation of China during WWII (Rape of Nanking) in their own timeline ? Will the Chinese try to prevent the rise of Fascism in Japan ? Or even in Europe ?


About trade :

I was thinking, what are the odds that China will do in 1900 with the European powers and their colonies what they are doing now in Africa, IE : "We help you build your country's infrastructure, and in return you sell us some of your resources for a good price" ? Would the Europeans accept, or would they let themselves get taken by their own prejudice against the Yellow Menace ?

[Simon_Jester]

China would easily become the world's largest arms dealer- exporting mountains of old surplus SKS and AK clones, in quantities sufficient to equip whole armies of the 1900 era. That, if nothing else, you can be utterly certain the nations of Europe would buy, and buy at any reasonable price.

Also, for its resources, all China really needs to do is buy out some colonial concessions. For oil, make deals with nations like Persia (whose shahs would merrily roll over for anyone who had the money, at this point in history) or with the Ottoman holdings in Mesopotamia. Coal, iron ore... all these things are much more obtainable in 1900 than they would be in the 1776 scenario, because there's already industrial infrastructure in the world devoted to mining and moving thousands of tons of the stuff. China might suffer severe economic dislocation as their export market rearranged itself and their imports were disrupted, but they wouldn't wind up in as extreme or distorted a situation as the American 1776 scenario.

On the home front, there would be a strong temptation to make some demonstrations of armed force- and the Chinese leadership might be sorely tempted to make a tour de force against Japan, beat them down just to reduce that long term threat and demonstrate what some of their weapons are capable of.

They would also be strongly tempted to neutralize Taiwan quickly, and would be all too likely to succeed- honestly, Taiwan's position would become untenable in a world with no modern allies, and they would not need long to realize that.

[Rabid]

Would it be really necessary for them to use force against Taiwan ? If I remember correctly what I read from some of my mil-wankers magazines, the Chinese view their Army as an organic outgrowth of their policies, their natural Strong-arm, rather than as the war-fighting machines Armies are perceived as in the West.
As such, I don't think they would go for a War against Taiwan. After all, they have infrastructures and knowledge that they could use, and the PRC still consider them Chinese.

What I think is more likely is that they would, maybe, send some of their fleets close from the coast of Taiwan, fire a few missiles on an uninhabited island close from some Taiwanese stationed troops (for them to see the light show), as a form of statement ; and very politely and diplomatically call the Taiwanese authorities to explain to them their current situation and then seal a deal where both party gain something.

[Purple]

Most likely that something would end up being a setup similar to what Hong Kong gets now. One country three systems this time.

[mr friendly guy]

Hmmm... Well, it's more like all Chinese territories in 2012 (PRC + ROC) are transported back to 1900, and the corresponding territories from 1900 are transported to 2012.
I don't know if this answer your question.

Ok, so if I infer this right, Outer Mongolia stays put, but with its 1900 population, and officially loyal to China. In which case either Outer Mongolia decides to try its luck and use the justification that the PRC is not the Qing and it will secede earlier. China could let it pass, or it could send troops in, but that depends on whats there in Outer Mongolia to be worth grabbing. In modern times there are more Mongols living in China than Mongolia, the GDP of the Chinese province of Inner Mongolia is greater than Outer Mongolia etc.

Just to know, wasn't Tibet under British "Protection" at the time ?

This is the second time I heard this, and I suspect this was some Free Tibet rubbish. I guess someone forgot to tell The British that

Britain invaded Tibet in 1903. The rationale was supposedly Tibetan bandits entering British ruled India, although its stated because they were afraid of Russian influence there as part of the "Great Game."

They formally accepted that China had a special relationship with Tibet akin to suzerainty but not necessarily sovereignty, ie Tibet will do its own internal thing, but foreign relationships and treaties must be negotiated via China. The British later negotiated the borders between Tibet and British ruled India with Tibet without the participation of China even though they officially recognised Chinese dominion over Tibet, but they held a vague view on that.

This was the treaty negotiated. Essentially China refused to sign so the British went ahead even though they believed China had suzerainty over Tibet. You can see where this leads to can't you?

They clarified what they meant in 2008, which essentially says its been part of China, end of story and that the British position was an anachronism originating in the geopolitics of the early 20th century. Meaning their attempt to negotiate without China the borders between India and China was not done in good faith.

Concerning the relationship between 2012!China and 1900!Japan : How will Beijing's policies be likely affected by the Japanese's occupation of China during WWII (Rape of Nanking) in their own timeline ? Will the Chinese try to prevent the rise of Fascism in Japan ? Or even in Europe ?

No one is going to believe them that Japan would kill so many people a mere 3 -4 decades later. Japan at this time was about as "well behaved" as the European powers at the time. Its better to wait for Japan to show its hand before intervening.

About trade :

I was thinking, what are the odds that China will do in 1900 with the European powers and their colonies what they are doing now in Africa, IE : "We help you build your country's infrastructure, and in return you sell us some of your resources for a good price" ? Would the Europeans accept, or would they let themselves get taken by their own prejudice against the Yellow Menace ?

[/quote]

I think they will have to negotiate with Europe since they control parts of Africa. I think as it stands the Europeans will still end up fighting two world wars and forced to let their colonies go. Best to pay for the minerals now. With what is the question. Europe may simply accept weapons instead of infrastructure at this point in time.

[mr friendly guy]

Would it be really necessary for them to use force against Taiwan ? If I remember correctly what I read from some of my mil-wankers magazines, the Chinese view their Army as an organic outgrowth of their policies, their natural Strong-arm, rather than as the war-fighting machines Armies are perceived as in the West.
As such, I don't think they would go for a War against Taiwan. After all, they have infrastructures and knowledge that they could use, and the PRC still consider them Chinese.

What I think is more likely is that they would, maybe, send some of their fleets close from the coast of Taiwan, fire a few missiles on an uninhabited island close from some Taiwanese stationed troops (for them to see the light show), as a form of statement ; and very politely and diplomatically call the Taiwanese authorities to explain to them their current situation and then seal a deal where both party gain something.

Taiwan's position would be pretty much untenable because the PRC doesn't have to land troops, they can simply blockade the island. If Japan tries to "regain" Taiwan they get stomped with missiles hitting their cities. I suspect they would negotiate some similar arrangement that Hong Kong and Macau hold, and we have a 1 country 3 systems arrangement and increase in further trade.

[Grand Moff Yenchin]

Well if it's 1/1, 2012 the election in ROC is actually just reaching its height (Vote is on 1/14) and definitely will halt due to the situation. It will render a lot of issues moot and likely the Blues and Greens will reach some sort of agreement to work with China.

On the other hand, for drama's sake, I'd like to see the radical parties of all sides do some wacky William Walker and Isketerol shit a la Island in the Sea of Time. The amount of literature is far more easier to access than what we see in the Nantucket series and the technology difference isn't too distinct.

[Rabid]

I think we have sorted the most obvious things about 2012!China for now, so we'll get to the other side of the fence :

What of 1900!China and the 2012!World ?

[Simon_Jester]

The colonial troops in China are in deep trouble because they cannot be reinforced. But there are quite a lot of them, especially Russians and Japanese. Japanese garrisons in Manchuria and Taiwan are brought along as well- integrating them into modern Japan could prove... difficult.

For Qing China, this is arguably an improvement, because actively colonialist foreign nations are now replaced by nations which have renounced aggression and exploitation. Their corporations will still try to exploit China's potential, but overall their situation is less tenuous and less easily dominated by foreigners. Collapse of the Qing government as collective awareness of the modern world spreads, and we get to see whether "this time," the 1911 revolution can bring about a real Republic of China.

For much of the rest of the world, the switcheroo means an immediate economic crash (this always seems to be an element of these), because China exports so many industrial goods and consumes a lot of resources- not as much as the US, but still a lot of commodities like oil. Many major corporations suffer the loss of extensive holdings in China and find themselves essentially without any production lines.

There will be an attempt to outsource industry to China once again, but since 1900 China has essentially no modern infrastructure of any kind (such as electricity or railroads), it will be decades before that can matter. Other relatively low-income nations like India will be well positioned to replace China as the great exporters of the world; a certain amount of industry may well migrate back to the developed world in response to political pressure on First World governments, especially in the US.

[Rabid]

What of North Korea, since there isn't the PRC to back them anymore ?

[Simon_Jester]

I'm honestly not sure to what extent the PRC does back North Korea- as opposed to merely tolerating their existence. They're so much of an armed camp that actively invading them would be sheer folly; I think they'd just continue to decline more slowly towards the natural economic level associated with their form of government, which is a Bronze Age deified monarchy.

[madd0ct0r]

1900!China basically everything pulls back and goes into a sort of siege mode until they can work out what the fuck is going on.
Japan might try to take them under their wing, until some other interested party gives China a history textbook. Inside the country, life continues much as ever, with farming and what not. It's only the upper echelons that are in panic mode.
On the other hand, 1900!China was used to being outclassed by colonial powers, even during the Boxer rebellion it seems certain people knew it was a war they couldn't win. Grasping the degree to which they're outclassed might take some time.

Arguments over the Sheply Islands kick off again, with Phillipines, Indosnesia and Vietnam staring each other down. Vietnam might be tempted to start a minor war to distract from internal tensions, which in turn might incite the Marcos loving nationalist remnant in the 'pines. If Vietnam takes advantage of the situation to the north, it's more likely to negotiate favorable terms for equipping the chinese army. The current Viet government is currently heavily reliant on the threat from the north to stifle rebellion, so they would want China to remain a credible threat.
On the other hand, nobody on the peninsula likes china, so a joint carving up operation might be hatched between Vietnam, Laos, Mynmar, and possibly North Korea (to cement Kim II as a conquorer).
Due to the territory available, I'd expect India and Pakistan to not join in, but watch each other very carefully. Bhutan ain't doing nothing. Khazastan and Mongolia don't need the land and probably can't afford the manpower.

China would survive, but possibly 1/2 to 1/3 in size and a crippled vassal. Australia might ally with Japan (possibly with Indosenia acting responsibly here too) to contain aggression to the continent, but would be unable to stop the land warfare.


Maybe Europe and America would intervene, but I think they'll have their hands full trying to unravel the support chains. India will be booming, as will much of South America.

[madd0ct0r]

oh, and with 2012!china - AIDS hits the world a whole lot earlier.

[Simon_Jester]

True, although at least 2012!China will know exactly what it is, how it spreads, and how to counter it. It won't be the only horrifically deadly STD running around, even; remember what syphilis was like back then...

Hey, come to think of it, antibiotics will be a big deal. China can certainly make penicillin and the sulfas and so on, and those will work again, at least for a generation or so.

[madd0ct0r]

Could Taiwan use this sort of technology as a bargaining chip to get protection from the elder Great Powers?

[madd0ct0r]

Damn. missed the edit window:

I'm guessing with the introduction of modern explosives, and the basics behind tanks and planes WW1 will look a little different. Taiwan might be trading these for protection, or threatening to release them should China attack.

Likewise, dissidents inside china might be looking to empower other factions in the world, and smuggle ideas out to them.

[Rabid]

The thing with introducing new armament on the battlefield isn't so much having the armament, as it is convincing the High Command that a new class of armament suppose new, innovative doctrines.

See what happened at the start of WWII : Everyone knew tanks existed, and everyone had tanks, however what allowed (in part) the success of the Germans during the Campaign of France in May-June 1940 was their innovative (for the time) use of tanks, armored vehicles and aircrafts (short-called as the "Blitzkrieg") ; when the opposition had built its armored forces in a different way, simply as a form of force multiplier for the leg infantry, which was still seen as the "Queen of the Battlefield" (tanks were dispersed on the battlefield within the infantry, accompanying its advance). [I may or may not be telling bullshit, having made no research and going by what I seem to have understood from countless WWII documentaries]


Where I'm going whit this is that it is possible that WWI would happen differently if the Chinese sell weapons to the Europeans, however it isn't guaranteed, given the doctrinal inertia of all European Powers' officer corps. I think the changes would be only superficial, and that any hypothetical WWI would still (tend to) stabilize in a form of stalemate leading to attrition warfare.

The real game-changer, I think, would be when the Europeans (and the US) learn about Relativity and the Atomic Bombs...

[Purple]

Would China or even Taiwan really want to give that knowledge away? I mean yes, show the world that nukes exist but I imagine China would do everything in its power to not let anyone else make them in order to retain the edge of being the worlds first and only nuclear power.

[Rabid]

No, no they wouldn't give or even sell warheads, or even the knowledge of how to make them to other Nations. This is a certainty.

However, as soon as the Europeans will know there's this Superweapon that can totally dissuade any other Nation from invading them (yeah...), they are going to go full speed ahead and do whatever it takes in order to be the first to have it.

I mean, the theory of relativity isn't special knowledge, and anyone going into a Chinese university, or even a Chinese public or private library, will be able to get his hands on a book explaining Einstein's Theory. And anyway, said Einstein is only, what, less than 5 years away from publishing his theory.
As soon as people will connect the dots "Relativity = Superweapon", there's going to be a race to see who can build a Bomb first.

It could very well force the start of the First World War, as Nations do their best to crush the concurrence before they have a chance to complete their program and menace them ; and create a situation that if a Second World War is to break, it is likely to be fought with Atomic Weapons.
Or maybe it will have the inverse effect, and there will be no World War altogether. I don't know.