Solar Panels Cheaper Than Grid Power In India

[Zaune]

New Scientist

SOLAR power has always had a reputation for being expensive, but not for much longer. In India, electricity from solar is now cheaper than that from diesel generators. The news - which will boost India's "Solar Mission" to install 20,000 megawatts of solar power by 2022 - could have implications for other developing nations too.

Recent figures from market analysts Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) show that the price of solar panels fell by almost 50 per cent in 2011. They are now just one-quarter of what they were in 2008. That makes them a cost-effective option for many people in developing countries.

A quarter of people in India do not have access to electricity, according to the International Energy Agency's 2011 World Energy Outlook report. Those who are connected to the national grid experience frequent blackouts. To cope, many homes and factories install diesel generators. But this comes at a cost. Not only does burning diesel produce carbon dioxide, contributing to climate change, the fumes produced have been linked to health problems from respiratory and heart disease to cancer.

Now the generators could be on their way out. In India, electricity from solar supplied to the grid has fallen to just 8.78 rupees per kilowatt-hour compared with 17 rupees for diesel. The drop has little to do with improvements in the notoriously poor efficiency of solar panels: industrial panels still only convert 15 to 18 per cent of the energy they receive into electricity. But they are now much cheaper to produce, so inefficiency is no longer a major sticking point.

It is all largely down to economies of scale, says Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at BNEF. In 2011, enough solar panels were produced worldwide to generate 27 gigawatts, compared with 7.7 GW in 2009. Chase says solar power is now cheaper than diesel "anywhere as sunny as Spain". That means vast areas of Latin America, Africa and Asia could start adopting solar power. "We have been selling to Asia and the Middle East," says Björn Emde, European spokesman for Suntech, the world's largest producer of silicon panels. Over the next few years he expects to add South Africa and Nigeria to that list.

The one thing stopping households buying a solar panel is the initial cost, says Amit Kumar, director of energy-environment technology development at The Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, India. Buying a solar panel is more expensive than buying a diesel generator, but according to Chase's calculations solar becomes cheaper than diesel after seven years. The panels last 25 years.

Even in India, solar electricity remains twice as expensive as electricity from coal, but that may soon change. While the price drop in 2011 was exceptional, analysts agree that solar will keep getting cheaper. Suntech's in-house analysts predict that, by 2015, solar electricity will be as cheap as grid electricity in half of all countries. When that happens, expect to see solar panels wherever you go.

Now this is a way for solar power to change the world without relying on any technology we don't already have. The average rural working-class family in India would only need enough power to run three things: some lights, a decent-sized chest freezer and a cheap laptop. The lights would effectively add an extra couple of hours on the day for taking care of housework and other necessities. A freezer would give them more options for storing their home-grown food and hopefully turn a period of unemployment or a bad harvest into a crisis instead of a catastrophe. The laptop... Well, that gives them unprecedented access to the most powerful agent of change and the most valuable tool in the world: Knowledge.

[Coalition]

They'll need some way to store power for when the sun isn't shining (i.e. solar power for night lamps is 'tricky'), but that is a known problem. Compressed air tanks, pumped storage for hydroelectric, batteries, and since they don't have to last more than a few hours vs all night it will require less infrastructure.

But yes, cheap solar panels in sunny countries is a very good thing, both for providing power, and for concentrating the chemicals produced from their manufacture is a single location, so contamination control is easier (vs CO2 and other chemicals being spewed across the country).

[Zaune]

They'll need some way to store power for when the sun isn't shining (i.e. solar power for night lamps is 'tricky'), but that is a known problem. Compressed air tanks, pumped storage for hydroelectric, batteries, and since they don't have to last more than a few hours vs all night it will require less infrastructure.

Hmmm, there's a thought. I hadn't really considered pumped storage on that small a scale. I couldn't say how the relative working lifespan of an electric pump compares to that of current-generation battery technology, but the former has the definite advantage of being easily serviceable; the infrastructure to manufacture and repair compressed air tanks is considerably easier to come by in poorer regions than the infrastructure to make lithium-ion battery cells.

[madd0ct0r]

more likely to see an internet cafe per town then a laptop per house.
especially when there's not a lot on the web in hindi

lights, fridge, , rice cooker, freezer, couple of electric fans for the summer, (power tools), TV, kettle.
in that order, i think.

using the freezer the way you described would be a dramatic change in lifestyle, but using a fridge to keep the ants out the sugar, the meat good for a couple of days and store the veg and beer is really useful.
I'd also point out that only the meat would be worth freezing for crisis - rice and daal don't need it, and green leaf veg won't take it.

having an electric rice cooker is so fucking convenient. You would not believe the amount of energy/firewood/water/time these little beauties save.

for storage you'll be looking at a few old car batteries. at least initially.

[Broomstick]

India consumes significant dairy products (all those wandering sacred cows do have their uses) - a refrigerator would be extremely useful for prolonging the shelf life of milk and other dairy products.

[Zaune]

Broadcast TV is becoming less relevant these days; it's cheaper and more useful to just put non-urgent public service or educational stuff up online so people can grab it whenever they have the time. And English is joint official language with Standard Hindi anyhow.
I also can't really see internet cafes being a particularly viable medium to long-term business model now that laptops are getting so cheap, especially outside areas where it's easy or cheap to get a broadband connection that's noticeably faster than GPRS.

I take your point about the freezer, though, at least for places where rice is the staple crop.

[Skgoa]

Going to an internet cafe has the advantage of costing very very little.

[Sarevok]

India consumes significant dairy products (all those wandering sacred cows do have their uses) - a refrigerator would be extremely useful for prolonging the shelf life of milk and other dairy products.

I don't think you understand power usage in India. The refrigerator is peanuts compared to rest of a house power needs.

A typical middleclass family could have half dozen ceiling fans, at least one air conditioner, one big screen TV and computer(s), microwaves. Also India has little natural gas in most places so cooking is done in electric cookers. Even villages in middle of nowhere have houses like these. The real poor people in slums even they got ceiling fans and TVs and often microwaves. This is not 19th century anymore. We live in a globalised world and everyone has got more of the same.

Over here in Bangladesh where we have worse electrical situation than India a typical house receives around 5 kW of electrical power. Even rural tin shed houses are guaranteed 1 kW under government subsidised rural electrification program.

Generators are not common across here. Most apartments buildings have one or two big units supplying each flat with portion of their vital needs (cooling,lighting, water etc). The rest is handled by IPS batteries which are found in almost every house.

The big problem with India and here would be finding a place to install those panels. When people live in urban jungles like this space is hard to come by.

[Zaune]

Going to an internet cafe has the advantage of costing very very little.

You'd be surprised how poorly they stack up compared to an entry-level mobile connection, actually. A personal computer is certainly a considerable up-front expenditure, but unless mobile plans in India are truly extortionate then it'll still work out cheaper in the long run.

[Sarevok]

Almost everybody in India has mobile internet. 3G is widely available.

[Guardsman Bass]

That's becoming more common in developing nations in general, although India's smartphone penetration is still very low.

[Sarevok]

I don't have the numbers on hand for India. But here in Bangladesh there are 21 million EDGE/GPRS users out of a population of 150 million. India has much better internet and telecom infrastructure than us. I find the bar chart unlikely to be accurate. It would make sense if they were only counting big name Android models and iPhones as smartphones. But the thing is Nokia and Blackberry dominates the Indian market. Plus they got a gazillion of domestic brands like Maximus and Chinese ones like ZTE producing feature phones, BREW enabled devices and Windows Mobile 6.5 and Android devices. Plus GPRS thumbstick modems are dime a dozen.

[UnderAGreySky]

Things that will need to be factored in when we talk solar v/s other power sources in India:

- Every other part of India except North and Central India gets four months of continuous rainy weather (the monsoons).
- Transmission & Distribution losses are up to 40%, a very poor figure compared to western nations (10%, I think)
- Dust issues
- Power theft is rampant in certain areas

Some of these factors (power theft) are of course universal, but solar can cut T&D losses a bit by locating the generating centres nearer to the cities. Dust is a bit of a problem as I suspect the panels lose efficacy when coated with a layer.

Amongst the other issues raised, I'd just like to clarify some points:
- stand-alone freezers are unheard of outside shops. Most people have integrated fridges with one-third or less space given to the freezer.
- Rice cookers, kettles are not electric appliances in India outside upper-middle and above classes. Everyone else uses LPG or as you go into rural areas, wood, coal & kerosene.
- madd0ct0r, we use pressure cookers for rice. They also save a fair bit of gas
- We may be the fastest-growing mobile market in the world but there's still some scope to grow.
- The internet penetration is much, much poorer than mobile penetration, that's because most of the country makes do with Nokia, Samsung, LG and Chinese knock-off non-smart phones. Mobile calling rates are ridiculously low (think a dollar for three hours' worth talk time...), 3G rates start at four dollars per month which is more significant.
- Internet penetration is hampered by either illiteracy or lack of English skills, as was rightly pointed out
- Zaune, Broadcast media still rules without a doubt. Everyone, even in the slums, has access to a TV set and cable television.
- Sarevok, thank you for posting that photo. I miss my city

Other bits:
- India is already the fifth largest wind power generator and second-fastest in growth (10%), behind China
- We're also getting supposedly the world's largest solar panel-making plant. As told to me by a family member who is involved in the construction! Wonder if that will provide a boost for in-country usage.
- I've heard that solar-thermal water heaters are catching up big time in rural areas - little up-front cost and a ready source of hot water.

[Singular Intellect]

Really? Solar power becoming cheaper than conventional power generation? Colour me absolutely shocked and completely taken off guard by this development! [/sarcasm]

That said, this is just tip of the iceberg that will become the juggernaut of solar energy harvesting becoming the dominate player in our energy infrastructures. Coal, oil, gas, biofuel, nuclear...they're all going the way of the dodo much sooner than people think.

[Zaune]

Every other part of India except North and Central India gets four months of continuous rainy weather (the monsoons).

I meant to touch on that in the first post actually. Modern solar cells can still generate some current on overcast and rainy days, but you're right that they won't completely eliminate the need for a backup generator or grid connection.

Broadcast media still rules without a doubt. Everyone, even in the slums, has access to a TV set and cable television.

For the time being, maybe, but in a few years it'll be another story. This thing is an extremely barebones but completely Internet-ready Linux box that's going to retail for about the same as one of those cheap non-smart phones you mentioned, plus another few quid for a keyboard and mouse, and I'm sure I could pick up a rather clunky but perfectly functional old laptop or beige box mini-tower from a pawnshop for not a lot more.

[aerius]

Really? Solar power becoming cheaper than conventional power generation? Colour me absolutely shocked and completely taken off guard by this development! [/sarcasm]

Cheaper than diesel generators. Next, we do the currency conversions, as of right now it's 50 Indian rupees per USD, so 2 cents per rupee. That gives 17.75 cents per kWh. What's the cost of nuclear & coal? 3-4 cents per kWh. Solar ain't there yet.

[Sea Skimmer]

The thread title is wrong and should be changed. This does not say solar is cheaper then grid power. It says solar from the gird is cheaper then diesel generator power people use on a distributed basis at homes and factories as a backup to unreliable grid power, or use in place of non existent grid power. Nobody on earth has a major power grid powered off diesel, that doesn’t make a lick of sense since if you have more then modest power requirements you’d just put in a steam turbine-boiler system that can run on lesser cheaper grades of petroleum then diesel fuel. Like just burn the crude unrefined.

[Singular Intellect]

Solar ain't there yet.

'Yet' of course being the key word. I have yet to see any other technology offer a clean, renewable source of energy that is many thousands of times greater than our current energy consumption and good for the next few billion years. Never mind the amazing cost reductions and technological innovations that'll make solar energy harvesting drive all other power sources into antiquity.

All other energy 'sources' are cup sized puddles of water being peddled as as the best source of water while we're sitting next to a fucking ocean.

[Sea Skimmer]

Solar could takeoff like crazy with the technology we have now, if only someone could solve the problem of grid energy storage. Without that power companies would be stuck maintaining vast numbers of natural gas plants, since its uneconomical to start up most other thermal power plants just for night or bad weather and hydro is hard to expand upon, and this greatly increases the total costs. That's why it doesn't happen, and why wind is gaining ground much quicker then large solar plants. Wind is weather dependent, but it will always make at least some energy.

One idea I like for grid storage is melting underground salt caverns, but like so many options it has site limits no matter how well its made to work, in this case only certain areas have the required caverns in geologically stable rock formations. Melt salt in unstable areas and it may turn into a giant sinkhole.

[Singular Intellect]

Solar could takeoff like crazy with the technology we have now, if only someone could solve the problem of grid energy storage. Without that power companies would be stuck maintaining vast numbers of natural gas plants, since its uneconomical to start up most other thermal power plants just for night or bad weather and hydro is hard to expand upon, and this greatly increases the total costs. That's why it doesn't happen, and why wind is gaining ground much quicker then large solar plants. Wind is weather dependent, but it will always make at least some energy.

One idea I like for grid storage is melting underground salt caverns, but like so many options it has site limits no matter how well its made to work, in this case only certain areas have the required caverns in geologically stable rock formations. Melt salt in unstable areas and it may turn into a giant sinkhole.

Rapid advances in energy storage technologies are now being made as well, and once more developed and mass produced, will hammer the final coffin nail into all other proposed energy 'solutions'.

I'll see about digging up mutiple links for energy storage solutions and posting them sometime tomorrow.

[Zaune]

SI, I could swear we all went through this in a previous thread on solar power, but since I'm in a good mood I'll try again.

It doesn't matter what "rapid advances" are being made, because we don't know how well any of the more radical stuff will actually work, if it works at all. Any new technology that's not ready to hit the assembly line in the next 18 months might as well not exist at all for the purpose of trying to solve immediate practical problems, and touting it as some kind of panacea before that point is foolhardy.

[aerius]

Never mind the amazing cost reductions and technological innovations that'll make solar energy harvesting drive all other power sources into antiquity.

Did you open up the spreadsheet that's on the page in your first link? Cause if you did, you'd know that the cost of sticking solar in Kingston, ON works out to 29 cents/kWh. As for the 2nd link, 0.1% efficiency, would you like to work out how much area you need to cover to provide for our power needs? Do the math. Have fun.

[UnderAGreySky]

Broadcast media still rules without a doubt. Everyone, even in the slums, has access to a TV set and cable television.

For the time being, maybe, but in a few years it'll be another story. This thing is an extremely barebones but completely Internet-ready Linux box that's going to retail for about the same as one of those cheap non-smart phones you mentioned, plus another few quid for a keyboard and mouse, and I'm sure I could pick up a rather clunky but perfectly functional old laptop or beige box mini-tower from a pawnshop for not a lot more.

Zaune, I Would like nothing better than that to happen, but I suspect it won't unless we beat the literacy issues first. We have almost as many languages as Europe does (and don't get me started on the number of scripts they're in...) and even if step number one - getting everyone educate - was licked, step number two - finding them content in the right language - would be a challenge still.

That said, India needs to put its numbers to good use - Even if 5% of the population demand a product, that's nearly equal to the number of people in Britain. My favourite example is the number of subscribers to Vodafone in India is two-and-a-half times the population of the UK... and is only the third largest provider. Similarly there will be demand for power that is continuous, reliable and cheap - if not by individuals, then by companies. For now they rely on diesel gensets, but with the rising price of fuel solar will look increasingly popular for factories.

[Magis]

'Yet' of course being the key word. I have yet to see any other technology offer a clean, renewable source of energy

Renewable is a buzz word that doesn't have any relevant meaning. Yes, the sun will shine for a long time, but solar power equipment, including whatever energy storage devices you are fantasizing about will still uses Earthly materials that are of finite supply, and possibly of short supply like Indium, Gallium, etc.

Nuclear power is, in my view, even more clean than solar because of its immensely less demanding land use, and not requiring, you know, a million factories spewing out thousands of square miles of solar cells. And there's enough nuclear material in the world to satisfy our needs for hundreds of years.

that is many thousands of times greater than our current energy consumption and good for the next few billion years.

Yeah, and do you know why? Because we don't fucking need energy technology producing thousands of times our current consumption. We could do it if we wanted with nuclear, hydro, etc., although your billion years thing is a bit outrageous since the planet won't be habitable for that amount of time. There's no reason to plan an energy system that far in advance. We don't even know what the planet will look like in a few hundred years let alone a billion.

Never mind the amazing cost reductions and technological innovations that'll make solar energy harvesting drive all other power sources into antiquity.

Except that cost reductions and technological advancements are happening with other energy solutions, too, including nuclear. The fact is that solar power isn't exactly a new idea; it had a few thousand year head start on nuclear power and still hasn't been able to catch up. I think that fusion is more likely to reach widespread viability than solar, and when it does this whole argument will be over forever.

[Sarevok]

How does Solar Thermal compare to Solar electric for regions like the subcontinent which get a lot of hours of sunlight around the year ?