Simon_Jester wrote:I think we're talking past each other.
Your definition of "doomed" and my definition of "invisible" don't seem to be compatible or consistent with each other. To you, something is 'doomed' and 'unrecognizable' if it no longer exists in recognizable form; to me, something remains 'visible' if any reasonable scientist looking at the wreckage would likely deduce its existence.
Depends on how much is there. Although most modern cities are built on the ruins of old ones, the older cities aren't going to really show up recognizably in the far future because most of their building materials have either already rotted away or make very little use of things that shouldn't be there naturally (smelted metals, plastics, etc.) However, the very thing that preserves those for us (being built on top of) assumably isn't happening in this scenario. So, the things which would give us away as an advanced civilization are going to be exposed to natural processes of erosion and decay for thousands of years, whereas our older cities were mercifully buried under tons of rubble as we strove to build cities on top of ruins. It's like looking for fossils in areas where they don't favorably form; doable, but so rare as to be nearly impossible to find (hence the dearth of chimp fossils from a million years ago, for instance).
Rock formations that grow at insanely slow rates over geologic timescales still continue to exist for long periods of time. They aren't dissolved by bird poop or chipped away by kudzu, at least not in a lot of places.
Most rock formations aren't havens for birds, or kudzu, either, and are generally much, much, much bigger than any human buildings. For instance, Devils Tower has a volume of roughly 69 million cubic feet, all of which is solid rock. Burj Khalifa, by contrast, has a volume of (best as I could find) 1.4 million cubic feet, of which a great deal is the space between floors. So, given that nature can produce structures an order of magnitude larger which are much more solid, it's not really a surprise that even all the pigeons in the world would not make nearly as large of a dent as they can to human made structures.
I would expect that a million years from now, some generic city (call it Metropolis) would take the form of a thick layer of iron-rich gravel and brick dust buried under sediment. There's nothing any normal person would think of as a building, and nothing archaeologists can analyze except variations on the theme of potsherds... but there are still millions of tons of rubble. It can't all get washed away rather than buried in situ, except in very unusual cases where a city is extremely exposed to wind and wave action (Manhattan might be an example; London isn't).
The problem is
finding that evidence. Rivers will change course, which will be problematic for cities on rivers. I imagine Minneapolis/St. Paul, for example, will probably be washed away as the Mississippi floods over and over and over again over thousands of years, in addition to changing course over the rather pliable plains it flows across. Cities on the Great Lakes are going to be flooded over and beaten down by incessant wave action. All the cities in the largest river basin on earth, that of the Amazon, are going to be flooded out and overgrown by millions of plants. And so on. I think that most evidence is not really going to be there, necessarily. Especially if the fall of mankind is a rather slow denouement that sees us tearing apart our old cities for resources before we finally die out.
Also, London's right on top of a river, which does have some damming on it. The dams break, and a lot of London will be eroded away into the sea. In addition to the Thames changing course over time.
And there is the matter that the great majority of human civilization is right on top of water sources. The ocean and rivers humans build next to will wash away a great deal of evidence into the sea, where it will be broken down into unrecognizable portions. Anything and everything on the Pacific, for instance, will almost certainly be washed to sea at some point, due to all the vulcanism. We've had two major tsunami events in the past 10 years alone, and no reason to think that major tsunamis won't be occurring on a semi-frequent basis for the next thousand years. We also must think of wildfires (which will burn up anything made of petroleum products and send them into the atmosphere), tornadoes (occur worldwide and can obliterate smaller buildings and scatter their remains far and wide), earthquakes (which will break a lot of buildings into smaller and smaller pieces throughout time and allow for smaller pieces to be washed away with rain and snow melt), and so on and so forth.
About the only locations I can think of where major city presences won't be swept away into unrecognizable chunks in the ocean would be the Great Basin in the US (with Reno, Carson City, and Salt Lake City), any cities not on rivers in the Central Asian Steppe, and cities in the Outback that aren't in rivers. The cities in the Sahara might survive, but they also tend to be on rivers and will be sandblasted before being buried. So, that's a tough one. There might be a few cities which will be well preserved, but the vast majority will probably be so utterly washed away through simple weather and water action as to be nearly impossible to find, even if one knew what to look for.
Granted, it's all unlikely to be found by a civilization that doesn't practice dredging, take seabed soil samples, or dig wells... but it's still there. Among other things, this is relevant to us today because the absence of such things is negative evidence, evidence against the existence of prehistoric human or nonhuman civilizations comparable in scale to that of the modern day.
I think the absence of stuff on the moon is probably better negative evidence; the pure flux of earth's environment just wouldn't make something as insubstantial as cities like ours last enough to be seen as evidence.
Additionally, you have to think that if the layers containing what little detritus is left our cities emerges due to erosion (either like the badlands of North America, the Gobi in Asia, or areas exposed to the sea after millions of years) will be blown away or washed away, in all likelihood. And, if that happens four million years before an intelligent species evolves, they wouldn't have any evidence of our existence, either, outside of inferences from sudden (geologically speaking) appearances of animals where they aren't supposed to be (assuming they find good fossil evidence).
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