Alyrium Denryle wrote:Do you know what Prior Probability is? Basically, it is taking information about the past, and using it in an attempt to predict the future with a degree of uncertainty. Were I actually doing Bayesian statistics, I might for example try to get a ballpark estimate for the humidity on March 25th by taking 100 years of climate data for that day and arriving at a mean and the variance around that mean. There are also Priors that are less mathematically useful, but useful when trying to figure out how likely something is in one's head. For example, I know that the probability of a random cop (or random person, for that matter) being a racist is higher in a small town in Florida than in say... Toronto. I also know that the history of the criminal justice system and black people is not exactly stellar over and above any higher probability of black people committing crimes because of institutional and active racism. I also know that one of the officers at the scene in this case has a record of shall we say... poor judgement (to put it mildly). Do I KNOW there was racism involved? No. Is it more likely than some sort of National Average Probability? Yes.
I'm well aware that you are very impressed with your own ability to do statistical analysis, and believe you can quash opposing arguments on complex social issues just by trotting out statistical procedureres.. never mind that there are countless sociologists and other scientist who are also able to do statistical analysis and have been trying to sovle complex social problems for ages and haven't been able to.
Nevertheless, let's look at your ideas:
1) "Racism" is not a quantifiable thing except in the most general sense of "more" or "less"
2) What constitutes "racism" is highly subjective and a matter of debate in and of itself. Contrary to the illusions of some people, racism is not "whatever a minority/the left/AD/the majority on SDN say it is." You "know" all these things about racism
as you define racism, and no one is under any obligation to accept your personal pronouncements on what is and isn't.
3) Saying that "the probability of a cop in Florida being racist is higher than in Toronto" is meaningless. Almost anyone would agree to this. But so what? We cannot claim that the cop in this case was racist because of that. What we essentially can't do is claim he was racist because of his actions, then turn around and claim his actions are evidence of his racism. That's simply circular argument.
4) "Insitutional and active racism" are similarly, matters of open debate. They are not "givens" at all. See above. It's very easy to create "institutional" and "Active" racism when you use whatever definition is most convenient to yourself.. especially when any dissenting opinion is denounced as, itself, racism.
5) You have no way of saying that it is above any national average. You are simply inventing this and trying to use your familiarity with statistical procedure to create an illusion of scientific and mathematical validity.
I am not in a court of law. There are no stakes involved in my making this call. I am not required to accept only a "beyond reasonable doubt" burden of proof. Instead, I can accept a "preponderance of evidence" burden of proof, which when we take everything into consideration means that the police involved in this case are incompetent/lazy morons who dropped the ball--at best.
Whether they are incompetent or lazy is a separate issue from whether they are racist. Furthermore, if you want someone else (like me) to accept that they're racist, you'll have to do better than a "preponderance of the evidence", most of which is based on bigotry against Southerners dressed up as some sort of statistical evidence, and claims about the criminal justice system that are essentially Complex Cause Fallacy.
Read the god damn thread. Multiple other witnesses heard a Martin screaming for help and begging for his life. The police "corrected" at least one and said point blank that it was Zimmerman doing the screaming to said witness.
I do not recall reading any such thing. If the witnesses only heard the screaming, and did not see the altercation, how exactly did they know it was Martin?
Thus tainting the witness pool, and showing a high probability that they simply took Zimmerman's account at face value because they went about correcting the testimony of witnesses that contradicted him.
Where's your evidence that the witnesses actually saw who was doing the screaming? Correcting a witness who is making an assumption that they cannot testify to is not "tainting the witness pool". What exactly is "begging for his life"? Did the witnesses
actually see that or did they simply hear someone screaming, and then later, after finding out the kid was shot, simply assume it was him doing the begging or screaming? Are any of them familiar enough with either Martin or Zimmerman to identify their voices by sound?
Here's a clue, Mr Preponderance of the Evidence. If Zimmerman is to be prosecuted, the prosecutor better have all these holes filled, because Zimmerman's defense attorney will steamroll him. Pointing out that "it's the South" and "statistical likelihood of bigotry" or whatever you want to call it isn't going to work; that's going to get at best tossed as irrelevant and if the prosecutor is really stupid and keeps doing it could cause a mistrial.
Yet if Zimmerman gets off because of these problems with the case, idiots like you that like to think any outcome you disagree with is due to "institutional racism" or "batshit insanity" will be right back decrying this as a case of "institutional racism" and totally ignoring the fact that
even if Zimmerman is guilty as sin of murder, if these problems with the case and the witnesses can't be addressed, he will, and should, walk. That's called Reasonable Doubt. It is not "Institutional Racism" to find not guilty based on reasonable doubt just because the victim is a black teen in the south.
Of course, none of these witnesses need contradict. Let us assume that yes, Martin was begging for his life, and that yes, he had in fact managed to get on top of Zimmerman at some point.
One of these came first.
Sequence A)
Zimmerman follows Martin
Martin confronts Zimmerman because he wants to find out why he is being followed, or Zimmerman Confronts Martin because Zimmerman is either a racist or unstable.
At some point, gun gets drawn.
Martin begs for his life as per witness testimony, to no avail
Martin realizes he is not getting out of this alive, fights back, gets Zimmerman to the ground
Zimmerman shoots him in the struggle
In this case, you are making this leap of "Martin realizes he is not getting out of this alive". How does Martin "realize" this? Is he simply
assuming it because Zimmerman has a gun? If so, what exactly did Zimmerman do that makes Martin "beg for his life" and how do we know it's "to no avail"? He clearly hasn't actually shot Martin yet because Martin in your scenario still knocks him down and gets on top of him. Zimmerman is standing there making it clear he's going to shoot the kid, but then fucks around about it? Where's the witness testimony to
that effect? Zimmerman has already called the police, but then he confronts the kid, not even with the expectation of detaining him until the police arrive, but of
killing him and then fiddles around about it until the kid finally gets desperate and jumps on him? What was he doing, having a Villian Monologue? You see the underlined and italicized portions? If Zimmerman was really intent on shooting Martin, how do we get through the intervening space without Martin already being shot?
Zimmerman is guilty of murder.
Zimmerman is guilty of manslaughter, at worst. The witness testimony has distinct holes, and your scenario does not work.
Sequence B)
Zimmerman follows Martin
Martin confronts Zimmerman because he wants to find out why he is being followed, or Zimmerman Confronts Martin because Zimmerman is either a racist or unstable.
A physical altercation happens.
Martin gets the upper hand
Zimmerman draws gun
Martin realizes the man is armed and proceeds to surrender and begs for his life as per witness testimony, at which point he is no longer a threat
Zimmerman shoots him
Zimmerman is guilty of murder.
Again, this makes no sense. If Zimmerman is really down on the ground and draws the gun, he shoots Martin immediately. Why would he give Martin time to beg for his life? That's silly. You A) have absolutely no knowledge whatsoever of what close-quarters or hand-to-hand combat is like and B) are trying to insert events in order to make Zimmerman guilty of murder which you have no evidence for. Again, your witnesses are unreliable and can only testify that someone was screaming or begging for their life. If they'd actually seen who it was, you wouldn't be inventing these sceanrios; we'd already know the sequence of events, especially with more than one of them so they could be bounced off each other.
This only works if you are accepting the testimony of zimmerman and one witness to the exclusion of other witnesses who heard Martin begging for his life. Why you would do this, I cannot know for certain.
Again, there is no reason to think the witnesses actually knew who was doing the screaming or begging. That's why. I hate to break it to you but witnesses do that all the time; they allow knowledge they acquired later to form assumptions in their mind and change their testimony. Why do you think they're so frequently sequestered in court? Even a witness determiend to be honest is not immune.
However, it seems to me that there is a positive prior probability of unknown magnitude that you are bending over backwards to justify the actions of police officers. You are also making a shit ton of assumptions with no data
There are no police officers involved in what we're discussing. We're discussing who did what. I already said I thinkt he polcie handled this incompetently; even if Zimmerman is 100% innocent a shooting death should not be dealt with in such a cavalier fashion.
This remark however indicates several things.
1) You are appealing to motive, engaging in ad homenium and attempting to poison the well based on your knowledge that I am in law enforcement
2) You are changing the subject to the police; I am discussing the killing, not the investigation. The investigation was
at best poor, regardless of guilt or innocence. The police department in question is evidently completely inept when it comes to shootings.
3) You are again using statistical jargon to mask your own poor reasoning and predjudices.
4) YOU are the one making a shit ton of assumptions without data. Almost everything you've had to say about "racism" is based on your personal subjective assessment of A) what is and isn't racism and B) who, how often and to what degree they engage in it and C) bigotry regarding southerners in general, which, regardless of the history of the South, is still inexcuseable. Every southerner is not a bigot. Your assumptions about the sequence of events are exactly that - assumptions, and you contradict yourself by talking about what the witnesses heard but then admit they didn't see who was actually doing what, screaming included.
I love how you ignore... logic itself... in this one. Especially because your refutation has already been dealt with by me earlier.
You assume that he would need to know what street he is on. There is no reason for Zimmerman to need to know the street name unless he had followed this kid a considerable distance away from his native turf. He was NOT on the phone with police when physical contact with Martin was made, so he was not relaying that location.
I love how you pretend to be using anything remotely approaching logic. I also already addressed this. He stated he would tell the police where he was
when they called him back. He therefore would need to know the name of the street
whether he was on the phone or not because he was expecting a call from the police inquiring about that information at some unknown point in the near future.
You are simply cherry-picking the evidence from the very conversation you cited. You did not "deal with" this point at all; all you did was look at when the conversation ended and ignore the part where Zimmerman stated exactly that he did not know where he would be and would
give that information to the police when they called. His "mental map" does not help him at all; at best he could describe his location indirerectly with landmarks but that is slower and less accurate than a street name. In fairness to you, I'm sure it was unintentional since you're obviously too ignorant of law enforcement and reconstructing a tactical scenario or sequence of events to have done it deliberately.
So no, KS is not wrong. That would also explain getting out to check the street name, since he would need to tell the police where to meet him when they called.
It MIGHT. But how often--even in the rain-- do you need to get out of a car to check a street name? I dont know about you, but I have driven in torrential rain in both TX and FL, and even in rather large thunderstorms with sheets of water drenching everything, I can still read street signs just fine. Stopped, or in motion... and if you have ever been to Arlington, you will know that street signs (and everything else about the roads) can get fucked up beyond all imagination here. Eventually, the contrivances required for Zimmerman's story to be true are literally too much to be believed by a reasonable person.
We do not know exactly where Zimmerman was in relation to the street sign. I don't normally get out to check a street name because I do not normally find myself following someone unless I am on duty and then it's my responsibility to know where I am at all times within my area of responsibility. Zimmerman cannot say the same. You cannot use your personal experience to call that any sort of "contrivance". You're simply assuming it is based on normal, everyday driving. That isn't what Zimmerman was doing. I'm also quite sure Arlington Texas is not special in terms of how fucked up its street signs are.
In any case, thanks for the concession. One minute I'm "ignoring logic" then the next it's "well... uh... it
might." Might is all it needs to.
Shit like this is why I'm kind of glad it isn't legal to go around punching people in the crotch. You'd be able to track my movement from orbit from the sheer mass of idiots I'd leave lying on the ground clutching their privates in my wake. -- Mr. Coffee