India tests long range missile, China unconcerned

[fordlltwm]

India test-fires long-range missile
Beijing today sought to play down fears of a new Asian arms race after India successfully launched a new inter-continental ballistic missile capable of striking any city in China with nuclear warheads.
Dean Nelson

By Dean Nelson, New Delhi

10:40AM BST 19 Apr 2012



Its foreign ministry issued a statement stressing its partnership with New Delhi after Indian prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh hailed the launch of its Agni V missile as a key milestone in its "quest for security, preparedness and to explore the frontiers of science."

"I congratulate all the scientific and technical personnel of the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organisation) and other organisations who have worked tirelessly in our endeavour to strengthen the defence and security of our country," he added.

The launch of the missile, which has a range of over 3000 miles and is expected to be mounted on a continually moving rail carriage, has been welcomed by Indian security analysts who said it had brought nuclear parity between the regional rivals, and meant for the first time India could match China's ability to target any city within its borders.

The arrival Agni V is expected to be welcomed in Washington which has encouraged India to become a regional counterweight to China's growing military might. But a spokesman for China's foreign ministry said Beijing was not alarmed by the development.

"China has taken note of reports of India's missile launch," said Liu Weimin. "China and India are both big emerging countries, we are not rivals but cooperation partners," he added.
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The test had been expected to be carried out on Wednesday but was delayed because of lightning storms over Wheeler Island in Orissa.

No North Korea style outrage I note

[PeZook]

Well, China and India are cooperating closely on a number of important issues. North Korea, on the other hand, is the designated bad guy (and possibly the only designated bad guy who's actually crazy).

It's similar to when the UK tests a new missile, and the US just shrugs: nobody seriously expects the UK to up and start nuking people because something weird happened with their government.

[Simon_Jester]

Yes.

With North Korea, outrage is caused partly by fear. People really fear what North Korea might decide to do, since it's fairly common for them to just decide to up and kill or imprison South Koreans- there were several incidents like that recently. They surely have motives that make sense inside their own heads, but the fact of the matter remains: a dangerous and twitchy fellow who has his reasons is still dangerous and twitchy.

India is not particularly twitchy, and their tendency to fight Pakistan has mellowed over recent years, so they create less fear and therefore less outrage. I wouldn't be outraged or worried about China testing a missile either. Same reason.

[PeZook]

It's doubly true because understanding what goes on in North Korean politics is so damn hard, even for people who deal with North Korea profesionally. They're like the crazy old uncle waving a sawed-off shotgun around.

[Ziggy Stardust]

Ten years ago China probably would have raised a fit. It wasn't that long ago that they were pretty fierce competitors for influence in central and southeast Asia. However, the past decade or so has seen greater economic and political cooperation between the two countries (just as, 20 years ago, the US might have raised a fit about China testing a missile, but now the links between the nations are two strong for such grandstanding).

[Pelranius]

The Agni III can already hit most of China, so Beijing isn't too worked up.

And the fact that China is apparently investing a lot of resources into BMD on the sly.

[Sea Skimmer]

The main difference is Angi III can hit most of China, from a location in north eastern India which is a region in dispute territorially and considered vulnerable to a Chinese ground offensive thanks to a certain Indian debacle in 1962 and generally poor communications. Angi V meanwhile can hit Beijing from more or less any point in the Indian landmass, making secure basing and protection from a first strike far easier. The Chinese wont get worked up for a lot of reasons, among them the fact that in general, arms treaties could only hurt China right now given the INF advantage they have, plus so many potential enemies being restricted by the MTCR. It'd be a bad idea to make too much of a splash on the subject in general.

[Sea Skimmer]

So given the choice of ignore/or be critical China has taken the third path by mocking the missiles size.. which is highly amusing coming from a nation with mostly SRBM and MRBM class missiles.

Chinese media mock India's 'dwarf' missile

While the Indian media are being swept along by the euphoria of the successful test launch of Delhi's first long-range ballistic missile - which can reach deep within China - Chinese papers have dismissed outright its impact on India's military might vis-a-vis China.

The press termed the test a "missile delusion" and a mere "show of strength".

While the Indian media dubbed it a "China-killer", state-run Chinese newspapers mocked the latest Indian missile, the Agni-V, calling it a "dwarf" compared to China's own missiles.

Both Chinese- and English-language newspapers rejected the view that this missile would tilt the strategic balance in the region towards India, something that the Indian media have been celebrating for the past two days.

Chinese official reaction has been more restrained, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lui Weimin calling India a "partner and not a rival".

In its editorial on Thursday - the day of the launch - the state-run English-language newspaper Global Times dismissed India "standing a chance" in a confrontation with China.

"India should not overestimate its strength… For the foreseeable future, India would stand no chance in an overall arms race with China," the editorial said.
'No breakthrough'

On 20 April, an editorial in the state-run newspaper Huanqiu Shibao said India's strategic strike force was in "early childhood".

It further mocked the missile programme by saying that the Agni-V showed "the backwardness of Indian missiles" and was "merely one of the concrete displays of its social and economic development as a whole lagging behind China".

In a similar vein, commentator Wu Xuelan wrote in the Communist Party newspaper Renmin Wang that India has always "cherished the dream of becoming a major power" but its social problems "are still very serious".

Instead of wasting money on developing missiles, India "should do a better job in terms of [improving] the lives of ordinary people", the newspaper said.

In an interview with the English-language China Daily, a senior researcher from the Academy of Military Science, Yao Yunzhu, said that the new missile is not a "significant breakthrough for India".

Mr Yao said it was just "an improvement on the range" that in no way will change the "current military strength contrast between the two countries".

Even commentators and analysts on CCTV's Global Watch programme on 19 April dismissed the strategic impact of the new missile launch.

Song Xiaojun, the editor of the Chinese Military Magazine, played down India's military strength.

"Without an adequate tank corps and a heavy-duty land force with adequate heavy weapons, it can hardly become a so-called 'China killer' by relying solely on nuclear weapons," he said.

Similar views were echoed by Gao Zugui of the Institute of International Strategic Studies, who said: "Despite giving a little support, it was right in saying that if it really wants to become a great nation, each of its families should have a toilet first."

Hong Kong's English-language newspaper, the South China Morning Post, on 20 April quipped that "India insists the missile - dubbed the 'China killer' in some of the country's more colourful media - is only for deterrent purposes".

But: "Amid a powder keg of security concerns and competition for energy resources as China's rise transforms the political landscape, it poses a potential threat to regional stability and harmony."

Chinese media mock India's 'dwarf' missile

While the Indian media are being swept along by the euphoria of the successful test launch of Delhi's first long-range ballistic missile - which can reach deep within China - Chinese papers have dismissed outright its impact on India's military might vis-a-vis China.

The press termed the test a "missile delusion" and a mere "show of strength".

While the Indian media dubbed it a "China-killer", state-run Chinese newspapers mocked the latest Indian missile, the Agni-V, calling it a "dwarf" compared to China's own missiles.

Both Chinese- and English-language newspapers rejected the view that this missile would tilt the strategic balance in the region towards India, something that the Indian media have been celebrating for the past two days.

Chinese official reaction has been more restrained, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lui Weimin calling India a "partner and not a rival".

In its editorial on Thursday - the day of the launch - the state-run English-language newspaper Global Times dismissed India "standing a chance" in a confrontation with China.

"India should not overestimate its strength… For the foreseeable future, India would stand no chance in an overall arms race with China," the editorial said.
'No breakthrough'

On 20 April, an editorial in the state-run newspaper Huanqiu Shibao said India's strategic strike force was in "early childhood".

It further mocked the missile programme by saying that the Agni-V showed "the backwardness of Indian missiles" and was "merely one of the concrete displays of its social and economic development as a whole lagging behind China".

In a similar vein, commentator Wu Xuelan wrote in the Communist Party newspaper Renmin Wang that India has always "cherished the dream of becoming a major power" but its social problems "are still very serious".

Instead of wasting money on developing missiles, India "should do a better job in terms of [improving] the lives of ordinary people", the newspaper said.

In an interview with the English-language China Daily, a senior researcher from the Academy of Military Science, Yao Yunzhu, said that the new missile is not a "significant breakthrough for India".

Mr Yao said it was just "an improvement on the range" that in no way will change the "current military strength contrast between the two countries".

Even commentators and analysts on CCTV's Global Watch programme on 19 April dismissed the strategic impact of the new missile launch.

Song Xiaojun, the editor of the Chinese Military Magazine, played down India's military strength.

"Without an adequate tank corps and a heavy-duty land force with adequate heavy weapons, it can hardly become a so-called 'China killer' by relying solely on nuclear weapons," he said.

Similar views were echoed by Gao Zugui of the Institute of International Strategic Studies, who said: "Despite giving a little support, it was right in saying that if it really wants to become a great nation, each of its families should have a toilet first."

Hong Kong's English-language newspaper, the South China Morning Post, on 20 April quipped that "India insists the missile - dubbed the 'China killer' in some of the country's more colourful media - is only for deterrent purposes".

But: "Amid a powder keg of security concerns and competition for energy resources as China's rise transforms the political landscape, it poses a potential threat to regional stability and harmony."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-17784779

[Kane Starkiller]

China is definitely concerned by this. There are major issues between India and China like China claiming almost entire Arunachal Pradesh state and supporting Pakistan and as both countries are growing the frictions are only going to get more intense. With the newly gained ability to strike anywhere in China, India has certainly improved its strategic situation.

[Sea Skimmer]

China's claims of Indian territory are less of an issue then the Indian claims of Chinese territory... which are written into the Indian Constitution! The Indians 100% refuse to negotiate on the topic before and after the 1962 war, while the Chinese have reached agreements with almost everyone else as far as land borders go. Various ocean islands are of course, still disputed. Most of those land border agreements saw little or no change to the actual border. The Soviets ceded a few minor islands in the Amur I think, as the largest change that took. For example China gave up its claim of a big chunk of what is now Kazakhstan up to shores of Lake Balqash. We have little reason to think China is serious about its claims, except so far as its not going to give them up if the Indians don’t do the same.

Some people think the whole point of the major Chinese offensive in 1962, which only came after India attacked first, was to shake up the Indians into actually negotiating but it just didn’t happen. The best part is the Indian claims are in some cases based purely on British drawn maps with lines so thick and scales so small that a line is as much as 20 miles wide! Indian meanwhile, at least in the past, I have no idea if it’s still true today, for decades actually banned publishing or printing anything which questioned its territorial claims. You couldn’t even suggest anything was in dispute, all you could do was print the Indian line and say an illegal Chinese occupation was in effect.

[Captain Seafort]

I have no idea if it’s still true today, for decades actually banned publishing or printing anything which questioned its territorial claims. You couldn’t even suggest anything was in dispute, all you could do was print the Indian line and say an illegal Chinese occupation was in effect.

It's still true. The Economist makes a point of stating every time they show a map of India that Indian copies won't show it, because it gives the actual border rather than the Indian version.

[Simon_Jester]

Hm.

My impression was that the Agni V was to be a significant improvement in accuracy over its predecessors. That wouldn't require a bigger missile. Other way around, really: it might let them get away with a smaller payload. A smaller circular-error-probable for the impact point means needing a smaller blast radius to nail the target, after all.

Of course, there's really no way to know whether that's true without access to information I'm sure the Indian government has classified.

[Omega18]

Hm.

My impression was that the Agni V was to be a significant improvement in accuracy over its predecessors. That wouldn't require a bigger missile. Other way around, really: it might let them get away with a smaller payload. A smaller circular-error-probable for the impact point means needing a smaller blast radius to nail the target, after all.

Of course, there's really no way to know whether that's true without access to information I'm sure the Indian government has classified.

I think the evidence points pretty strongly to likely a bigger definitely more powerful missile.

A key point to note is these are missiles intended for the specific purpose of strategic deterrence. This means theoretically nuking some some of the biggest Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. For the purpose of strategic deterrence with nukes, you don't actually need particularly decent accuracy, you could actually be miles off and still inflict massive damage to the city in question. If you're sticking to a single warhead, clearly the biggest the blast the better because you want the degree of potential devastation to be sufficient to ensure China absolutely will do everything to avoid such a scenario.

The news reports also often talk about the missile having a MIRV payload in the future which clearly is consistent with it being bigger and more powerful to handle that kind of payload while still having the desired range.

[mr friendly guy]

China's claims of Indian territory are less of an issue then the Indian claims of Chinese territory... which are written into the Indian Constitution! The Indians 100% refuse to negotiate on the topic before and after the 1962 war, while the Chinese have reached agreements with almost everyone else as far as land borders go. Various ocean islands are of course, still disputed. Most of those land border agreements saw little or no change to the actual border. The Soviets ceded a few minor islands in the Amur I think, as the largest change that took. For example China gave up its claim of a big chunk of what is now Kazakhstan up to shores of Lake Balqash. We have little reason to think China is serious about its claims, except so far as its not going to give them up if the Indians don’t do the same.

What about Tajikistans giving up 1000 square kilometres in around 2011 to China. Is that size smaller than those islands in the Amur? Shrugs. Just for the record the Tajiks are spinning it as a triumph of diplomacy as the disputed area was much larger.

[Sea Skimmer]

720 square kilometers was ceded to China along the Amur and Ussuri rivers in 1991, and more later in 2004. Not certain if the additional islands would push it over 1,000 square kilometers or not but it would be close. The Tajik deal is a lot older then 2011 in origin, it took a while to put into effect but it was agreed in the 1990s. It basically adjusts the border to follow natural ridge line as much as possible. It pretty much is a victory for the Tajiks, they lost nothing that remotely mattered and by finishing the agreement opened themselves up to a lot more bilateral trade with China, this means much more then it used too now that China has finally pushed a railroad out to Kashgar only about a hundred miles from the border in 2010. The distance was more like 1000 miles until it opened, skirting around the Taklamakan desert basin from northern Xinjaing.