China steps up in Afghanistan

[Sidewinder]

MSNBC:

As United States and Western nations pull out, China seeks role in Afghanistan

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai will hold talks during a global summit in Beijing this week.

updated 6/3/2012 5:05:22 AM ET

BEIJING — China and Afghanistan will sign an agreement in the coming days that strategically deepens their ties, Afghan officials say, the strongest signal yet that Beijing wants a role beyond economic partnership as Western forces prepare to leave the country.

China has kept a low political profile through much of the decade-long international effort to stabilise Afghanistan, choosing instead to pursue an economic agenda, including locking in future supply from Afghanistan's untapped mineral resources.

As the U.S.-led coalition winds up military engagement and hands over security to local forces, Beijing, along with regional powers, is gradually stepping up involvement in an area that remains at risk from being overrun by Islamist insurgents.

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai will hold talks on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Beijing this week, where they will seal a wide-ranging pact governing their ties, including security cooperation.

Afghanistan has signed a series of strategic partnership agreements including with the United States, India and Britain among others in recent months, described by one Afghan official as taking out "insurance cover" for the period after the end of 2014 when foreign troops leave.

"The president of Afghanistan will be meeting the president of China in Beijing and what will happen is the elevation of our existing, solid relationship to a new level, to a strategic level," Janan Musazai, a spokesman for the Afghan foreign ministry, told Reuters.

"It would certainly cover a broad spectrum which includes cooperation in the security sector, a very significant involvement in the economic sector, and the cultural field."

He declined to give details about security cooperation, but Andrew Small, an expert on China at the European Marshall Fund who has tracked its ties with South Asia, said the training of security forces was one possibility.

China has signalled it will not contribute to a multilateral fund to sustain the Afghan national security forces - estimated to cost $4.1 billion per year after 2014 - but it could directly train Afghan soldiers, Small said.

"They're concerned that there is going to be a security vacuum and they're concerned about how the neighbours will behave," he said.

Beijing has been running a small progamme with Afghan law enforcement officials, focused on counter-narcotics and involving visits to China's restive Xinjiang province, whose western tip touches the Afghan border.

Training of Afghan forces is expected to be modest, and nowhere near the scale of the Western effort to bring them up to speed, or even India's role in which small groups of officers are trained at military institutions in India.

China wants to play a more active role, but it will weigh the sensitivities of neighbouring nations in a troubled corner of the world, said Zhang Li, a professor of South Asian studies at Sichuan University who has been studying the future of Sino-Afghan ties.

"I don't think that the U.S. withdrawal also means a Chinese withdrawal, but especially in security affairs in Afghanistan, China will remain low-key and cautious," he said. "China wants to play more of a role there, but each option in doing that will be assessed carefully before any steps are taken."

Afghanistan's immediate neighbours Iran and Pakistan, but also nearby India and Russia, have all jostled for influence in the country at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, and many expect the competition to heat up after 2014.

India has poured aid into Afghanistan and like China has invested in its mineral sector, committing billions of dollars to develop iron ore deposits, as well as build a steel plant and other infrastructure.

It worries about a Taliban resurgence and the threat to its own security from Pakistan-based militants operating from the region.

Pakistan, which is accused of having close ties with the Taliban, has repeatedly complained about India's expanding role in Afghanistan, seeing Indian moves as a plot to encircle it.

"India-Pakistan proxy fighting is one of the main worries," said Small.

In February, China hosted a trilateral dialogue involving officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan to discuss efforts to seek reconciliation with the Taliban.

It was first time Beijing involved itself directly and openly in efforts to stabilise Afghanistan.

Afghan foreign ministry spokesman Musazai said Kabul supported any effort to bring peace in the country. "China has close ties with Afghanistan. It also has very close ties with Pakistan and if it can help advance the vision of peace and stability in Afghanistan we welcome it."

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Disregarding the inevitable "Chinese Communists are trying to take over the world!" conspiracy theories from American right-wingers, does anyone care to speculate on the effects this will have? Will Afghanistan join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (by 2022, or however long it takes the Afghan government to get its act together)? Will Pakistan's relationship with China become as strained as its relationship with the US, as China supports forces opposed to the Taliban (China has its own problems with Muslim terrorists, i.e., separatists in Xinjiang)?

[Aaron MkII]

What can be said? Best of luck to them.

[Stark]

I gues their widely different goals and intentions will give them different challenges.

[Thanas]

As long as they do not blow up more buddhist monasteries to get to the copper below....

[Aaron MkII]

I gues their widely different goals and intentions will give them different challenges.

Yeah, if their after resources they may not need to play cop. That doesn't seem like their style anyways.

[Stark]

Maybe you'd be surprised; 'bringing order' is a big deal for the Chinese too, and they love money as much as anyone else. But I think they'll see it as an opportunity to grow their own capability and experience rather than the attitude that they already know how to do it and it'll be easy.

[Haruko]

When was the last time a foreign power was not stomping on Afghanistan?

[Thanas]

When was the last time a foreign power was not stomping on Afghanistan?

12 years ago?

[Aaron MkII]

Maybe you'd be surprised; 'bringing order' is a big deal for the Chinese too, and they love money as much as anyone else. But I think they'll see it as an opportunity to grow their own capability and experience rather than the attitude that they already know how to do it and it'll be easy.

Well whatever they end up doing (and yeah, I don't really know much about China abroad) I hope it doesn't cost a bunch of lives.

[spaceviking]

When was the last time a foreign power was not stomping on Afghanistan?

12 years ago?

I think many Afghans felt like the taliban was a foreign power, given their arab connections.

[Thanas]

And you base this on what survey?

[General Mung Beans]

Well the Taliban was a Pashtun-based movement and Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Pashtuns in Afghanistan are often practically foreigners.

[mr friendly guy]

My impression is they are somewhat reluctant to take sides in internal disputes aside from preventing other outside powers (via the UN) from intervening.

They will most probably buy the minerals they want and let the Afghan government do its own thing, for good or for ill. The Chinese don't attach the same conditions Western aid has, which makes it somewhat attractive

[Sea Skimmer]

The Chinese can't get those minerals without building a railroad; not just for physical transport reasons but its part of the actual contracts they signed. Building railroads takes serious investment and serious security. For the moment the Chinese are just sitting on the claims, with some workers doing basic site preparation work like building roads but nothing that serious or expensive. Its a wait and see approach. They'd do nothing I suspect, but then they would risk the Afghans terminating the contracts. Part of the security plan is supposed to be just hiring all possible locals to work on the projects, robbing the Taliban of support.

[Block]

Well the Taliban was a Pashtun-based movement and Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Pashtuns in Afghanistan are often practically foreigners.

It's also an originally Pakistani movement and is seen as such by much of Afghanistan. The Pashtun support it because it gives them dominance over others, but it's not looked at as any more of a local government than the Soviets were or the British before them.

[Haruko]

When was the last time a foreign power was not stomping on Afghanistan?

12 years ago?

Was not sure on the dates. Just got over my laziness to look at how long the Soviet war in Afghanistan lasted (1979-1989). So it seems coincidentally 12 years is also the interlude between the Soviets and Americans taking their long turns stomping, heh. Not very encouraging to Afghans.

[Irbis]

And you base this on what survey?

Nationality of Talibs aside, they were backed by Pakistan, which is by all means a foreign power. That, and Afghanistan has a little problem of not having any significant nationality they can call its own, it's country glued from pieces inhabited by neighbors. Tajiks, Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Persians, Turkmens, they all have countries next door so outsiders messing with inside of Afghanistan is practically a given.

[Thanas]

And you base this on what survey?

Nationality of Talibs aside, they were backed by Pakistan, which is by all means a foreign power. That, and Afghanistan has a little problem of not having any significant nationality they can call its own, it's country glued from pieces inhabited by neighbors. Tajiks, Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Persians, Turkmens, they all have countries next door so outsiders messing with inside of Afghanistan is practically a given.

Yeah, but i fail to see how any tribe gaining more power over others is suddenly foreign oppression. Heck, the same thing happened with the Afghan kings and nobody is crowing "foreign usurper" at them.

[PainRack]

Well...we can look at their ties with Myanmar and extrapolate from it. To summarise,we buy what we want,give you cash and some diplomatic cover,but dont do anything embarrassing willya?

[Sidewinder]

From MSNBC:

China summit seen as counterpunch to US moves

By Eric Baculinao, NBC News Beijing Bureau Chief

BEIJING – Will an international summit hosted by China that includes major “movers and shakers” in Asia, including Iran, Russia, India and Afghanistan, lead to an eastern version of NATO?

“Absolutely not,” Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping told NBC News.

Cheng was speaking at a media event as some 16 heads of state and top officials, representing more than half of the world’s population, have gathered as members, observers and dialogue partners of the innocuous-sounding Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an economic and anti-terrorist security bloc initiated by China and Russia in 2001.

The meeting comes as China’s rising profile has raised questions about a possible power struggle between the U.S. and Beijing, with the recent Asia tour of U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta highlighting America’s effort to strengthen military alliances and partnerships in the region.

And as a sign of efforts to dilute U.S. influence, the summit granted observer status to Afghanistan on Thursday, a move should position China and the bloc to cultivate ties and play a greater role in the impoverished war-torn country even before NATO ends its military mission by 2014.

Already, Chinese firms have moved into Afghanistan, with designs on the country’s untapped trillion-dollar mineral and energy resources.

Granting observer status and inviting Afghan President Hamid Karzai will help to strengthen “political, economic and civilian cooperation between the SCO states and Afghanistan,” said Cheng at the media event.

“No military alliance” but…
When NBC News asked Cheng if the Shanghai Cooperation Organization would become an “eastern NATO” or a military alliance in the future, he very firmly downplayed the possibility.

“The main purpose is politics, economics and security and under no circumstances will the SCO become a military organization,” he said..

“But I personally think that, as the international environment becomes more complex, the SCO should enhance its cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), for the sake of peace and stability in Central Asia,” he added.

It’s extremely rare for Chinese senior diplomats to offer their personal views to foreign media, and Cheng’s pronouncements may be China’s trial-balloon for new security thinking.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which China is not a member, is a defense alliance formed in 1992 by Russia and former Soviet Republics, which Russia has been trying to reinvigorate in recent years, with stronger military contingents to counter the “eastward expansion of NATO,” among other threats.

By using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a vehicle to coordinate closely with the Collective Security Treaty Organization, China may be hoping to benefit from stronger military ties with Russia, while avoiding the pitfalls of a formal military alignment.

“It is my personal view,” Vice-Minister Cheng emphasized to NBC News, “but I will try to push for it."

“The peace and stability of Central Asia is related to China’s core interests, we will not allow the unrest in West Asia and North Africa to spread to Central Asia,” he said, referring to the threat of Arab-style upheavals.

“America should not worry”
“I don’t think America should worry about China’s Central Asia strategy,” said Professor Shi Yinhong, a leading international affairs expert at Renmin University, one of China’s top research institutions.

“There is no possibility for SCO to become a formal military alliance like NATO, but there can be greater security cooperation among SCO’s member-countries,” he told NBC News.

Nonetheless, Shi conceded there are “some elements" of counter-balancing strategy in China’s latest moves.

“China has neither the stomach nor the power to confront America’s strategic advantage in East Asia, but China has the capability to improve cooperation in Central Asia,” he said.

“China’s difficulty in East Asia is a motivation for China to do good diplomacy in Central Asia, otherwise things will become very difficult for China,” he explained.

Researcher Horace Lu contributed to this report.