"The Hivemind Singularity"

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Number Theoretic
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"The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Number Theoretic »

Picked up this article from Slashdot. Not sure if this belongs here or into Science Fiction:
"Alan Jacobs at The Atlantic writes about a book called New Model Army (NMA), which takes the idea of Anonymous — a loose, self-organizing collective with a purpose — and adds twenty-five years of technological advancement. The book's author, Adam Roberts, 'asks us to imagine a near future when electronic communications technologies enable groups of people to communicate with one another instantaneously, and on secure private networks invulnerable, or nearly so, to outside snooping.' With the arrival of advanced communications tech, such groups wouldn't be limited to enacting their will from behind a computer screen, or in a pre-planned flash mob; they could form actual armies. 'Again, each NMA organizes itself and makes decisions collectively: no commander establishes strategy and gives orders, but instead all members of the NMA communicate with what amounts to an advanced audio form of the IRC protocol, debate their next step, and vote. Results of a vote are shared to all immediately and automatically, at which point the soldiers start doing what they voted to do. ... They are proud of their shared identity, and tend to smirk when officers of more traditional armies want to know who their "ringleaders" are. They have no ringleaders; they don't even have specialists: everyone tends the wounded, not just some designated medical corps, and when they need to negotiate, the negotiating team is chosen by army vote. Each soldier does what needs to be done, with need determined by the NMA which each has freely joined.' Let's hope resistance isn't futile."
Link to a longer, more detailed article from The Atlantic.
An interesting idea, maybe scary. What do you think?
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Sarevok »

The phrase groupthink comes to mind.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Alkaloid »

without 'officers' of some kind the group won't achieve much because it has no direction. There needs to be at least nominal leadership, whether appointed individuals or people with enough fore of personality to make impassioned speeches and get the individuals moving in one direction, or supporting moving in one direction, rather than aimlessly protesting in a park for a month yelling about general discontent. The best outcome for a group looking to make change is that the people who will become leaders will meet each other here and begin to lead, or meet and move on to form their own groups with clear goals and strategies, the worst that it's easily infiltrated by more traditional methods (as in, an actual spy talking to people and finding out what they know rather than electronic surveillance) and those leadership cliques can be infiltrated, discredited and exposed.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Losonti Tokash »

It's okay guys, they won't just have some corps of medical specialists, anybody can take care of the wounded! It's not that hard, right?
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Alkaloid »

I don't care how advanced it is, if your internet message board (which is what this NMA thing is) requires a medial corps, you are doing something badly, badly wrong.

Also, when did army become a synonym for 'loose collective of people doing shit for kicks.'
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Vendetta »

Alkaloid wrote:I don't care how advanced it is, if your internet message board (which is what this NMA thing is) requires a medial corps, you are doing something badly, badly wrong.
The thing the book is describing, and that the article is talking about, is an actual army. A military organisation as imagined by a full on rapture of the nerds singularitarian. An army that fights against other armies, when it decides to, and then buggers off and does something else when it decides to do that.

Except it sounds less like the NMA and more like the Condottieri (Mercenary captains in Italy).
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Nephtys »

This is so much nonsense that it hurts. I have a great idea! Let's extrapolate an exceptionally loosely associated group of individuals who have extremely wide ranges of interest and cares and generally largely only seen in the form of very small specifically motivated groups utilizing a larger brand-name using a porn-filled internet forum to organize, to some sort of amorphous army of ultra-skilled hyper-capable decision makers!

What utter tripe. Throwing enough buzzwords and vague sci-fi ideas together does not constitute a coherent 'vision' of anything.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Gil Hamilton »

Ghost in the Shell called, they want their "Stand Alone Complex" back. :lol:
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Sidewinder »

Gil Hamilton wrote:Ghost in the Shell called, they want their "Stand Alone Complex" back. :lol:
I think you mean the Individual Eleven. Of course, an attempt to describe "Anonymous" as an army, is meaningless in the absense of ghost-hacking or other mind control technology.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Gil Hamilton »

Sidewinder wrote:I think you mean the Individual Eleven. Of course, an attempt to describe "Anonymous" as an army, is meaningless in the absense of ghost-hacking or other mind control technology.
The "Individual Eleven" was a Stand Alone Complex applied to politics.

I suppose calling what is describe in the OP a Stand Alone Complex is not quite far, since the point of a Stand Alone Complex is that none of the members of it have any real connection to each other other than that they are reacting the same way to the same stimulus, but it's a good joke.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by madd0ct0r »

And imagine one more thing: that such New Model Armies (NMAs) arm themselves and fight on behalf of those who pay them. In short, imagine groups arising that resemble Anonymous, whose extemporaneous self-organizing projects have recently been brilliantly chronicled by Quinn Norton, but with better communications and an interest, not in hacking websites, but in fighting and killing for money.
This makes no sense. Radical democratic groups ideologically opposed to censorship decide to become mercenaries? oh wait:
A minor character in New Model Army asks why people only fold themselves into a hive mind in order to pursue violence or other forms of destruction, and never to pick up litter.
except the evidence so far is MORE in favour of the litter pickers. The vast majority of flashmobs or web crusaders are out to mess around or improve the world.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by fgalkin »

So, it's kinda what we're told Al Quaeda and other terrorist groups are doing right now, except dumber (no specialization, etc)?

I am shocked and astounded by level of insight demonstrated by the author.

Have a very nice day.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Irbis »

Vendetta wrote:The thing the book is describing, and that the article is talking about, is an actual army. A military organisation as imagined by a full on rapture of the nerds singularitarian. An army that fights against other armies, when it decides to, and then buggers off and does something else when it decides to do that.

Except it sounds less like the NMA and more like the Condottieri (Mercenary captains in Italy).
To be fair, wasn't such model tried relatively recently, in Republican Spain's Army? I remember reading officers made 'suggestions' to their soldiers and the orders were carried after a vote, but this is the only example I can think of.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

Kerensky's provisional Russian army also tried democratically voting on military strategy, check out the hilarity that resulted in. I'm sure it will work better now that you have to convince the entire army simultaneously instead of one regiment at a time!

More successful systems were used by the Zaporizhian Sich Cossacks and the Greek mercenaries of the Anabasis--they merely elected their own leaders and then obeyed their orders during their term in office.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Simon_Jester »

I can imagine a society that would produce people that could do this. But they'd have to come 'pre-hiveminded:' with the psychology and attitude of eusocial insects. No trying to protect their own interests at the group's expense, enough likemindedness that even when people disagree they'd be close enough together that you could work out a compromise without conscious leadership. Things like that.

I'm pretty sure people weird enough to do this wouldn't be human anymore.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Irbis »

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:Kerensky's provisional Russian army also tried democratically voting on military strategy, check out the hilarity that resulted in. I'm sure it will work better now that you have to convince the entire army simultaneously instead of one regiment at a time!
Well, hilarity or not (and ignoring the fact both groups lost their wars) the concept was tried before. So, it's not so outlandish after all :lol:

And, speaking seriously for a moment, I can see modern "IRA"/Al Quaeda/whatever disgruntled fighter cell try such approach, maybe not to the point of voting in combat, but to exchange communications instantly, discussing best approach, and directing reserves to where they are needed. Even the 'medics' don't need to be that skilled - in combat, wounds can be roughly divided into three groups, and you need qualified surgeon to patch only the most serious group, for others field tending will usually suffice.

That said, while I can see a cell of fighters doing it, or even net of cells, building regular, big set-piece battle units larger than company might not work well with this concept, due to before-mentioned issues with vision and overall command in combat.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by madd0ct0r »

Simon_Jester wrote:I can imagine a society that would produce people that could do this. But they'd have to come 'pre-hiveminded:' with the psychology and attitude of eusocial insects. No trying to protect their own interests at the group's expense, enough likemindedness that even when people disagree they'd be close enough together that you could work out a compromise without conscious leadership. Things like that.

I'm pretty sure people weird enough to do this wouldn't be human anymore.

You mean like suicide bombers, soldiers willing to risk death to protect their mates, most riots without conscious leadership?

Humans aren't far removed from it. EDIT - although going beyond 'tribal' limits might make it difficult to field a full army.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by PainRack »

Are we talking about the book or the news article?

The book itself is about ex soldiers, veterans who are now rebelling against Britain, and the rebel armies are organised along that of the hive mind above. Its.... an interesting look about net centric warfare, instead of having nodes of officers, each and every "unit" is a hive node. I think the book has its hilarities, the "medic" part comes from each NMA had its entire membership trained in medicine via the internet.

I been trying to find this book locally, but apparently, I got to pay extra to buy it online..... so, I'm back to filling up my Butcher and Pratchett Collection first.

So far, the novel seems to treat each army as the ultimate guerilla army, and the British Army is entirely unable to contain them.

Oddly enough, it seems to me that the easiest way to counteract such a guerilla army would be to instill some real oppression and registration of movement/ID.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by PainRack »

Irbis wrote:
The Duchess of Zeon wrote:Kerensky's provisional Russian army also tried democratically voting on military strategy, check out the hilarity that resulted in. I'm sure it will work better now that you have to convince the entire army simultaneously instead of one regiment at a time!
Well, hilarity or not (and ignoring the fact both groups lost their wars) the concept was tried before. So, it's not so outlandish after all :lol:

And, speaking seriously for a moment, I can see modern "IRA"/Al Quaeda/whatever disgruntled fighter cell try such approach, maybe not to the point of voting in combat, but to exchange communications instantly, discussing best approach, and directing reserves to where they are needed. Even the 'medics' don't need to be that skilled - in combat, wounds can be roughly divided into three groups, and you need qualified surgeon to patch only the most serious group, for others field tending will usually suffice.

That said, while I can see a cell of fighters doing it, or even net of cells, building regular, big set-piece battle units larger than company might not work well with this concept, due to before-mentioned issues with vision and overall command in combat.
Apparently, the mercenaries only have a few thousand soldiers in them. I haven't read the book, but what they do is essentially send a call out on their intranet saying something like" we planning to occupy Edinburg castle, who's in? Ok, what's the plan? Yeah, the Scottish government wants us to kick out the English pigs. Ok, so, we need anti-tank missiles, who's going to buy it? Any tips?"
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by The_Saint »

Painrack seems to have a better handle on the book than the OP

I think the OP went a little overboard in thinking you could go from Anonymous to NMA with only a bit more technology.
I picked the book up some time ago (on recommendation of my local book store).

The New Model Armies in the book are named after the New Model Army of the English Civil War that somewhat became the model for all future armies. In this situation they are a loose militia-like organisation that makes use of the communication potential of technology such as facebook, wikipedia, forums etc.
The leaderless hive-mind is enabled by the use of (during communication) a +1 feature as found in Google+, facebook, reddit etc and voting using peer review as a filter.
Within the story a Client (Scotland) without a military force of its own, moves to engage a NMA (currently we'd think of it as hiring mercenaries) to enforce its goals (in this case wage against England until Scotland can or is separated from the Union).
A number of people elected to speak for an NMA represent it to the client (to ask for funds and assistance etc as required where possible, the story mentions the main character fulfilling this position to acquire equipment on the continent in the past). Individual troops volunteer for the NMA and hold allegiance to the NMA for the duration of its existence and their self appointed term within it.

Each soldier receives instruction via the NMA's wiki-equivalent. Decision making is made by vote where voting is undertaken by all within the decisions influence (be it the entire NMA on overall strategy or all troops within a battle on specific tactics). Individuals can gain more influence by the aforementioned "+1" or "like" feature with an equivalent "-1 dislike" that after a given weight of votes enforces a muting of that individual.
An example is given of a battle where an individual from a small unit uploads a proposal to attack a given target, all those within the local region of the battle discuss via personal computer (forum/facebook) over some form of secure wi-fi. Proposals and counter proposals are raised until enough have reached a given mass of "+1 likes" that a vote is held of the popular options,the winning option becomes the plan and the attack commences.

The story is based around the concept that this all works in real time and at a collective high enough speed that circumstances don't invalidate decisions.
In my opinion this is all technically possible now, to some extent Wikipedia and a number of open source projects are semi-operating like this currently. What does stretch the belief is the supposed difficulty that the traditional army has in countering such a force. The author uses the reasoning that an NMA without headquarters, bases, depots, heavy vehicles or any other point/vehicle/location for an enemy to target and using guerrilla hit & fade tactics without the objective of taking and holding any location leaves the traditional force/government without anything to fight (the old "how to fight a ghost/thin air" analogy) and hence traditional strategies fail, traditional military decision making can't pre-empt or recover quickly enough from engagements and traditional systems slowly (or quickly) unravel and collapse.

History has shown that asymmetric warfare is not only possible but that the difficulty encountered by the larger (traditional) faction in subduing the smaller(less traditional) faction appears to scale against the difference in apparent strength.

As for hive mind singularity........ where open source projects and systems like wikipedia show the technical possibility and a number of tech equipped ground roots humanitarian efforts acting in response to events such as natural disasters (I was earlier this year audience to a seminar discussing some interesting responses to the major earthquake in New Zealand last year) have demonstrated a social ability to act in a semi-leaderless manner using modern communications technology to share information/resources and group voting/peer review to set goals... I think 4chan has shown the current height of social ability to use technology the same way but for malicious purposes.

tl:dr I found the book interesting and thought provoking.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by PeZook »

I'm sorry, but current technology will totally fail when discussing TACTICAL DECISIONS. Seriously, that is retarded (for today's technology level, anyways), because the mere act of READING a dozen different attack plans and then voting on them with your tablets is going to consume enough time that circumstances will change and render all the plans useless.

Plus, of course, the government army will always have more resources to spend on...JAMMING THE WIFI, which is such an obvious thing to do that it beggars the imagination that the "traditional" military won't do it, especially since traditional militaries will be using this communications tech, too, and therefore logically develop countermeasures and EW capabilities to counter their enemy's communications. And, of course, how do the NMAs circumvent all the "traditional" law enforcement? They're terrorists with efficient communication systems, not ghosts of yonder. They have identities and social circles and have to use vehicles and resources, and also apparently have a fluid membership, which means it can be infiltrated by traditional spies.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Simon_Jester »

Irbis wrote:And, speaking seriously for a moment, I can see modern "IRA"/Al Quaeda/whatever disgruntled fighter cell try such approach, maybe not to the point of voting in combat, but to exchange communications instantly, discussing best approach, and directing reserves to where they are needed. Even the 'medics' don't need to be that skilled - in combat, wounds can be roughly divided into three groups, and you need qualified surgeon to patch only the most serious group, for others field tending will usually suffice.
It also helps if the individual 'soldiers' are indifferent to their own lives, which would be almost necessary for this to work well. You need people who can consistently vote for strategies that are likely to get them killed, not just the ones that get someone else killed.
That said, while I can see a cell of fighters doing it, or even net of cells, building regular, big set-piece battle units larger than company might not work well with this concept, due to before-mentioned issues with vision and overall command in combat.
The average human being's span of command is something like... what, three to six units in combat? Trying to keep track of much more than that is difficult. In a democratic army, everyone is trying to keep track of every other unit- so you are at once doing a colonel's job, a sergeant's, a lieutenant's, and so on up the chain. Or you need to be a superhuman entity that can fight, keep track of dozens of other fighters, and talk to those fighters all at once, without benefit of subordinates to manage the details.
madd0ct0r wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:I can imagine a society that would produce people that could do this. But they'd have to come 'pre-hiveminded:' with the psychology and attitude of eusocial insects. No trying to protect their own interests at the group's expense, enough likemindedness that even when people disagree they'd be close enough together that you could work out a compromise without conscious leadership. Things like that.

I'm pretty sure people weird enough to do this wouldn't be human anymore.
You mean like suicide bombers, soldiers willing to risk death to protect their mates, most riots without conscious leadership?

Humans aren't far removed from it. EDIT - although going beyond 'tribal' limits might make it difficult to field a full army.
Suicide bombers are willing to die but have to be talked to- they don't automatically all agree on what to do or what to blow up. Not unless you point them at a very obvious target ("blow up that tank or we all die" to the point where any bonehead can see it). War is not always obliging enough to provide very obvious targets and courses of action.

Riots can fight without conscious leadership, but they also react predictably and stupidly. The only thing that makes riot control a challenge is that police are usually trying not to kill the rioters.
PainRack wrote:So far, the novel seems to treat each army as the ultimate guerilla army, and the British Army is entirely unable to contain them.

Oddly enough, it seems to me that the easiest way to counteract such a guerilla army would be to instill some real oppression and registration of movement/ID.
Yeah. Also to have people infiltrate their network for screwing around online. Creating fake accounts and pretending to be willing to do something heroic so that you wind up getting a bunch of them killed when they think 200 people have signed on to do something and 100 of them are fake ringers comes to mind...
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Ultonius »

The whole idea sounds a little like the Demarchist system of government in the Revelation Space books by Alistair Reynolds, where neural implants allowed people to constantly vote on political decisions. I wonder though, in the book situation as described by The_Saint, what's to stop Scottish Unionists (assuming they still exist in sufficient numbers) from forming their own NMA and using the same tactics against the Scottish government? Scotland could end up with its own version of the Troubles.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by Simon_Jester »

The_Saint wrote:The story is based around the concept that this all works in real time and at a collective high enough speed that circumstances don't invalidate decisions.
Very tricky...
In my opinion this is all technically possible now, to some extent Wikipedia and a number of open source projects are semi-operating like this currently. What does stretch the belief is the supposed difficulty that the traditional army has in countering such a force. The author uses the reasoning that an NMA without headquarters, bases, depots, heavy vehicles or any other point/vehicle/location for an enemy to target and using guerrilla hit & fade tactics without the objective of taking and holding any location leaves the traditional force/government without anything to fight (the old "how to fight a ghost/thin air" analogy) and hence traditional strategies fail, traditional military decision making can't pre-empt or recover quickly enough from engagements and traditional systems slowly (or quickly) unravel and collapse.
I see two problems. One is that they become very vulnerable to electronic counter-warfare; when every man is engaged in wireless chats every man is hinting at his position to a traffic analyst. Also spoofing, as I said above. You can try to secure the networks, but it's not easy and it adds a major overhead cost to this kind of planning.

The other is, again, that you need all the soldiers to be much more willing to die than average.
History has shown that asymmetric warfare is not only possible but that the difficulty encountered by the larger (traditional) faction in subduing the smaller(less traditional) faction appears to scale against the difference in apparent strength.
Uh... not really? The main reason for believing this is that we don't remember a lot of the cases where tiny provincial revolts appeared and just got utterly squashed by an occupying army. The lower limit of "apparent strength" in a guerilla force would be something like the Japanese holdouts on Pacific islands, who did so little damage they were indistinguishable from street crime, and took no great effort to contain until such time as they became irrelevant.
As for hive mind singularity........ where open source projects and systems like wikipedia show the technical possibility and a number of tech equipped ground roots humanitarian efforts acting in response to events such as natural disasters (I was earlier this year audience to a seminar discussing some interesting responses to the major earthquake in New Zealand last year) have demonstrated a social ability to act in a semi-leaderless manner using modern communications technology to share information/resources and group voting/peer review to set goals... I think 4chan has shown the current height of social ability to use technology the same way but for malicious purposes.
I wouldn't characterize it as a "singularity" though, because ultimately it doesn't change our ability to predict the reaction of groups very much. Giving a loosely arranged mob better communications won't turn it into a god.
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Re: "The Hivemind Singularity"

Post by PeZook »

A lot of the qualities of such an NMA are achieved by simple compartmentalization of an operation into isolated cells, anyways, as had always been done since the beginning of human conspiracy.

An NMA will not be immune to all the traditional ills of any guerilla/terrorists force, anyways: they will still need weapons, which will have to be acquired, moved into an area, distributed to operators and then collected again and secured for future use. They will need ammunition and they will need training areas - excellent comms won't turn a terrorist into a marksman, after all.

So the fantasy about an NMA having no "depots, structure, rear areas" is just a fantasy - at the very least they'll need to store and move weapons about, even if they magically don't need to practice things like marksmanship or first aid thank to the wonders of their communications tech.

EDIT: And also they'll need a secure network hardened against surveillance and electronic warfare, which requires specialists and hardware which in turns requires money and thus someone to manage it.

Whoops...structure!
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