Abdullah Gul is out, Recep Erdogan is in.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpres ... sp?ID=9452

PRIME MINISTER GUL TO RESIGN TODAY

The 58th Cabinet had its last meeting yesterday. Following the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Abdullatif Sener told reporters that the Cabinet’s performance during three-and-a-half month period was evaluated at the meeting. Sener stated that Prime Minister Abdullah Gul thanked ministers for their work. Stressing that the 58th government dealt with very important issues in foreign policy, including the developments in Turkey’s EU accession, the Cyprus issue and a possible US intervention to Iraq, Sener said that the government was successful. Meanwhile, Gul paid a congratulatory visit to ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan over his accomplishment at Siirt by-elections on Sunday. Gul said that he would present his resignation to President Ahmet Necdet Sezer after Erdogan takes oath in Parliament, and thus he would open ways for the establishment of a new government. /All Papers/

Indications that, ah, once the approval comes (Now probably going to be a rubber-stamp, despite cautions of delay), there won't be a further time-lag in deployment:

US TROOPS TO BE DEPLOYED AT NINE BASES

Under an agreement between Turkey and the US, US troops will be deployed at nine bases in southeastern Anatolia, including Mardin Kiziltepe, Dicle, Oyali, Nusaybin, Gaziantep, Oguzeli, Birecik, Sanliurfa and Viransehir. US teams have completed renting and buying processes of certain places and buildings to be used. Some 40,000 US soldiers are expected to be stationed on the bases. /Turkiye/

[Dahak]

Indications that, ah, once the approval comes (Now probably going to be a rubber-stamp, despite cautions of delay), there won't be a further time-lag in deployment:

Doubtable, since it still has to go through parliament, and we all know how well that "rubber-stamping" went the last time...

[MKSheppard]

Doubtable, since it still has to go through parliament, and we all know how well that "rubber-stamping" went the last time...

Unless of course, the Glorious Turkish Army coups the government...
hasn't happened since 1997...

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Doubtable, since it still has to go through parliament, and we all know how well that "rubber-stamping" went the last time...

The first delay was due in part because of the election that Erdogan has now won. Once his government has been formed - and with the Army's weight behind the measure - it is likely to pass. Remember that it already had a majority of the electors.

It was just that the 19 absentations prevented it from having the constitutionally required majority of the total votes in the chamber to pass the bill. Even if a majority of those nineteen still abstain, just a few switching to vote yes will let it squeak by, and the combination of the two factors just mentioned make that about as much of a certainty as Turkish politics allow for.

[Dahak]

Doubtable, since it still has to go through parliament, and we all know how well that "rubber-stamping" went the last time...

The first delay was due in part because of the election that Erdogan has now won. Once his government has been formed - and with the Army's weight behind the measure - it is likely to pass. Remember that it already had a majority of the electors.

It was just that the 19 absentations prevented it from having the constitutionally required majority of the total votes in the chamber to pass the bill. Even if a majority of those nineteen still abstain, just a few switching to vote yes will let it squeak by, and the combination of the two factors just mentioned make that about as much of a certainty as Turkish politics allow for.

Gul was just a puppet for Erdogan, and everyone knew it. And they expected their absolute majority to vote as they saw fit. They didn't.

Secondly, the populace, who is already against a Turkish involvement, wouldn't understand it, if they'd try to bring it a second time to a vote.

Erdogan himself said, that it is doubtable if (and when) they'd try it a second time.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Gul was just a puppet for Erdogan, and everyone knew it. And they expected their absolute majority to vote as they saw fit. They didn't.

Secondly, the populace, who is already against a Turkish involvement, wouldn't understand it, if they'd try to bring it a second time to a vote.

Erdogan himself said, that it is doubtable if (and when) they'd try it a second time.

BUSH PHONES ERDOGAN TO BOTH CONGRATULATE AND CAUTION HIM

US President George W. Bush yesterday phoned ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and congratulated him for being selected as a deputy at recent by-elections. Bush also cautioned Erdogan stressing the time was running out for Iraq. Emphasizing the strategic partnership between Turkey and the US, Bush remarked that he expected Turkey to make its decision as soon as possible. For his part, Erdogan reportedly requested Bush not to put pressure on Turkey about timing since the country is busy with forming a new government, which is a quite serious matter. “All legal procedures should be completed,” said Erdogan. “We also need to see what will UN Security Council decide on the Iraq crisis.” Erdogan yesterday made phone conversation also with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and European Parliament Chairman Pat Cox. These prominent figures phoned Erdogan to congratulate him. Annan and Simitis reportedly told Erdogan that they expected him to contribute to the Cyprus Peace Process. /Hurriyet/

Sounds to me like there will be another another vote, it's just a matter of timing - this is hardly the only source, though the guy's words are always the nicest - and even that may be hedging.

The fact they're letting us preposition 40,000 troops is an indication of where this is going, methinks.

[Dahak]

Gul was just a puppet for Erdogan, and everyone knew it. And they expected their absolute majority to vote as they saw fit. They didn't.

Secondly, the populace, who is already against a Turkish involvement, wouldn't understand it, if they'd try to bring it a second time to a vote.

Erdogan himself said, that it is doubtable if (and when) they'd try it a second time.

BUSH PHONES ERDOGAN TO BOTH CONGRATULATE AND CAUTION HIM ....For his part, Erdogan reportedly requested Bush not to put pressure on Turkey about timing since the country is busy with forming a new government, which is a quite serious matter. ?All legal procedures should be completed,? said Erdogan. ?We also need to see what will UN Security Council decide on the Iraq crisis.?....

Sounds to me like there will be another another vote, it's just a matter of timing - this is hardly the only source, though the guy's words are always the nicest - and even that may be hedging.

The fact they're letting us preposition 40,000 troops is an indication of where this is going, methinks.

That is just diplomatic legalese for "We will look into it, and decide when we feel like it."
It is hardly an commitment of Erdogan's side.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

That is just diplomatic legalese for "We will look into it, and decide when we feel like it."
It is hardly an commitment of Erdogan's side.

Remember that Erdogan has to take public opinion into account when he speaks. Any pro-War stance will naturally be moderated language-wise.

[Vympel]

The window for a second-front in Turkey is over, if the war is to start on schedule.

[MKSheppard]

The window for a second-front in Turkey is over, if the war is to start on schedule.

They lost their chance for a say in the post war order. Kurdistan
is looking more and more likely, especially if the Kurds rise up with
US Spec Force Support to tie down the Iraqi army in the North
while we smash into the south with armored divisions....

[Sea Skimmer]

I bet after there elections Turkey will take a new vote, which will pass. Of course it will be far to late to matter but it will still be used to try and force a say in the post war makeup of the country.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

They lost their chance for a say in the post war order. Kurdistan
is looking more and more likely, especially if the Kurds rise up with
US Spec Force Support to tie down the Iraqi army in the North
while we smash into the south with armored divisions....

You really have no idea what you're talking about, do you?

[MKSheppard]

You really have no idea what you're talking about, do you?

As do you.

You seriously THINK that Turkey actually has a say in the post-war order?

The way things are looking, it seems like Turkey will pounce onto Iraq at
the last minute in a naked attempt to worm their way into the post war
pecking order, sort of like how Italy attacked France after Germany had
done most of the hard work in May 1940.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

As do you.

You seriously THINK that Turkey actually has a say in the post-war order?

Yes.

The way things are looking, it seems like Turkey will pounce onto Iraq at
the last minute in a naked attempt to worm their way into the post war
pecking order, sort of like how Italy attacked France after Germany had
done most of the hard work in May 1940.

They already have troops inside of Iraq, Mark. Haven't you read anything that has been discussed here in the past few days? That combined with the fact we're prepositioning there, so depending on the delays we very well might be able to use their territory as a base, and we'll surely be able to use their airspace, if they approve the measure, means they are certain to have a say in postwar Iraq.

Besides - An independent Kurdistan would be unfeasable even if they didn't, because keeping them from having a say and doing something intentionally offensive to every country in the region, even if their hostile governments were removed, are two different things - and the later is really fucking dumb